Offseason, 2017-2018

[dballislife]

man are we ever gonna have anymore legends in this franchise, you know star guys that build legacies with us that fans will remember, i mean if we never retain guys when they hit around 30 which is the usual free agency year

like what are we some poor small little town that can never keep our players

[dagger]

man are we ever gonna have anymore legends in this franchise, you know star guys that build legacies with us that fans will remember, i mean if we never retain guys when they hit around 30 which is the usual free agency year

like what are we some poor small little town that can never keep our players

If you look at free agency this winter, there seems to be a general reappraisal going on about the value of giving long-term contracts to guys over 30. And this is likely framing thinking for next winter as well. Machado and Harper will get mega-deals, in part because they are among the best players in the game, but also because they will still be in their 20s when they sign. But as for everyone else, including Donaldson, what we saw last year with EE is becoming entrenched. Call it the Tulo factor - do you really want to be paying someone megabucks at age 34 to play occasionally, when not injured, or to DH?

[bluerap23]

man are we ever gonna have anymore legends in this franchise, you know star guys that build legacies with us that fans will remember, i mean if we never retain guys when they hit around 30 which is the usual free agency year

like what are we some poor small little town that can never keep our players

The key is to have players that aren’t late bloomers. JD, JB and EE were all late bloomers (and from different organizations). We have these 2 kids named Vlad and Bo. They have as good a chance as any to be franchise cornerstones.

[polo007]

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CHICAGO (AP) - The Chicago Cubs are having active talks with free agent Yu Darvish, hoping to add the right-hander to their rotation as they try for a second championship in three seasons.

The 31-year-old Darvish is one of the top players available in a slow-moving market this winter. He finished last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, helping them reach the World Series.

A person with direct knowledge of the discussions confirmed the talks to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity Monday night because there was no agreement in place. The Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees also have expressed interest in Darvish.

The conversations come amid reports the Cubs have agreed to a minor league deal with Chris Gimenez, who regularly caught Darvish while they were in Texas and developed a trusted working relationship with the Japanese pitcher.

[Lateral Quicks]

Would love to get rid of Morales somehow. He's a big waste for the DH slot, and we have Pearce to fill in at first if Smoak regresses.

Another board suggests moving his bloated salary for a starting pitcher with a bloated salary over a similar term. I think that makes a lot of sense.

[flatjacket1]

Another board suggests moving his bloated salary for a starting pitcher with a bloated salary over a similar term. I think that makes a lot of sense.

Would do this if the opportunity presented itself. I still can't help but feel any pitcher on a similar deal that could be stuck in a ML rotation at a #5 spot would also take other assets. You'd be talking about DFA level pitchers making similar #. I am not terribly against keeping him in the DH spot. If he truly sucks we can DFA and see if anybody will take, and if not he's still likely hitting .270/.320ish with some power, which although terrible for a DH is survivable.

Really I think the best add this team could use is a solid middle of the rotation arm. If we got a Lance Lynn type (unlikely IK), our rotation would likely look like:
1) Stroman
2) Happ
3) Lynn
4) Estrada
5) Sanchez

On any given night we would only need a couple of runs to have a chance. With Biagini being slotted in to start with no depth behind, I'd say we won't make playoffs under many circumstances (even with healthy seasons, Tulo rebound etc.). I like Biagini long term as a starter, but counting on him and going through the growing pains in a year it appears we are trying to compete makes little sense to me.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Another board suggests moving his bloated salary for a starting pitcher with a bloated salary over a similar term. I think that makes a lot of sense.

A legit starter, even a 5th starter is going to have way more value than Morales. A similarly bloated contract for a 5th SP to what Morales is getting to DH is considerably more than what Morales is getting. I think it would take prospects and such to make even that kind of move. No NL teams will want Morales. Not very many AL teams are actively looking for a DH right now and of the few that would take an upgrade, it isn't that hard for them to find someone roughly as good as Morales on their roster already. I think the Jays are just going to have to wait Morales out, much like with Tulo.

[Schad]

Would love to get rid of Morales somehow. He's a big waste for the DH slot, and we have Pearce to fill in at first if Smoak regresses.

Another board suggests moving his bloated salary for a starting pitcher with a bloated salary over a similar term. I think that makes a lot of sense.

There aren't many pitchers who fit. It'd need to be someone who i) is bad enough to trade for Morales, ii) has a similar contract, and iii) plays for a team which needs a bad DH more than a bad SP. Best I could come up with is Morales for Phil Hughes.

[Skin Blues]

The problem is that there aren't many (any?) starting-rotation-worthy pitchers that are bad enough to trade for Morales, because by definition if they're worthy of being in a starting rotation, they are better than our replacement level DH.

If somebody wants Morales we simply trade him for organizational depth and pay most of his salary. And then we find a team with a pitcher that fits our needs and go from there. You don't really save anything by bundling those two moves together.

[bluerap23]

Would love to get rid of Morales somehow. He's a big waste for the DH slot, and we have Pearce to fill in at first if Smoak regresses.

Another board suggests moving his bloated salary for a starting pitcher with a bloated salary over a similar term. I think that makes a lot of sense.

I could see this happening for a pitcher making significantly more money than Morales.

[rarefind]

Can't see Morales getting moved as a dump, yet. Shatkins won't want to spin a mistake on a deal just 1 year into a 3 year deal. Perhaps next offseason or during the season.

[Tanner]

Morales has better projections across the board than Phil Hughes and also makes less. Hughes also happens to have shoulder issues and may not even be a lock to start again. I have seen Ian Kennedy's name mentioned as well in other parts, but he has $26m more left on his contract and projections have him and Morales pretty close in value next season.

I know Kendrys is unpopular, and opening up the DH spot would definitely help this roster, but man, the Jays are better off keeping him and hoping he starts hitting or dumping him while eating up most of his salary than they are making those types of trades.

Plus, his exit velocity was still top 10 in baseball in 2017. That is likely a big reason why they signed him. If they felt he was worth a three year deal a year ago, then I don't see why they would cut bait already.

[zilby]

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Dumpster-diving fun continues!

[flatjacket1]

Morales has better projections across the board than Phil Hughes and also makes less. Hughes also happens to have shoulder issues and may not even be a lock to start again. I have seen Ian Kennedy's name mentioned as well in other parts, but he has $26m more left on his contract and projections have him and Morales pretty close in value next season.

I know Kendrys is unpopular, and opening up the DH spot would definitely help this roster, but man, the Jays are better off keeping him and hoping he starts hitting or dumping him while eating up most of his salary than they are making those types of trades.

Plus, his exit velocity was still top 10 in baseball in 2017. That is likely a big reason why they signed him. If they felt he was worth a three year deal a year ago, then I don't see why they would cut bait already.

To me pitcher value is pretty underrated by FG. Like I've seen guys have a 0.0 fWAR with 15 ER in 15 innings, on the basis that "they shouldn't suck this much". When they do well, they face significantly less batters and thus ignore the contingency table which is never used for regression. To me a bad arm should be rated lower and a good arm should be rated higher. They also completely ignore the fact that hitting is dependent on pitching. If JD faced Kershaw for every AB of 2017 I doubt he'd have the same numbers as if he faced Dermody. Regressing both instantly gives hitters an edge.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

Morales has better projections across the board than Phil Hughes and also makes less. Hughes also happens to have shoulder issues and may not even be a lock to start again. I have seen Ian Kennedy's name mentioned as well in other parts, but he has $26m more left on his contract and projections have him and Morales pretty close in value next season.

Yeah, but Hughes is pretty much it, unless you're looking to take back a bunch of extra salary. There aren't many pitchers in a similar price range to Morales that aren't well beyond his value.

[So_Fresh]

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Dumpster-diving fun continues!

Tillman had a pretty decent season in 2016. With an ERA of 3.77 in the toughest division in MLB. He was injured in 2017. If he can stay healthy I wouldn't mind this at all. Give him 12 million per on a 2 year deal for example, and use the rest remaining to sign a catcher, although Luke Maile would be fine as a backup catcher.

Starting five would be:

Stroman
Estrada
Happ
Sanchez
Tillman

Not too shabby!

[zilby]

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Dumpster-diving fun continues!

Tillman had a pretty decent season in 2016. With an ERA of 3.77 in the toughest division in MLB. He was injured in 2017. If he can stay healthy I wouldn't mind this at all. Give him 12 million per on a 2 year deal for example, and use the rest remaining to sign a catcher, although Luke Maile would be fine as a backup catcher.

Starting five would be:

Stroman
Estrada
Happ
Sanchez
Tillman

Not too shabby!

Tillman had shoulder problems that messed him up for the entire year in his pitching arm. It didn't just go away for the entire season last year, it's entirely plausible his arm is toast at this point. There's basically no shot we, or any team for that matter, would offer him $6M AAV, and if anybody else already did he'd have taken it and laughed to the bank. This is the type of move where we're planning for Joe Biagini to be a bullpen arm, only to see him become a starter quickly again and be very unprepared for it. We literally had this happen last year.

[So_Fresh]

I've seen enough of Biagini to know he is not a starter. Throw him in the bullpen. He'll be fine there.

We need another SP. Tillman would fit the profile this team is looking for. Injury aside, i'd still take my chances with him. He is someone who can give you 180+ innings and who has had success pitching in this division.

[polo007]

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