Tanner wrote:Solarte's value is only peak now if you expect his offence to decline. Projections have him bouncing back offensively (105 wrc+ projection), likely due to the low BABIP in 2017. You also have to consider that as long as the Jays have JD, and he's healthy, the bulk of Solarte's playing time will be at 2b and SS, where (as long as he's at least passable defensively) will make him a more valuable player overall. He will probably get reps at 3b and the outfield as well, but he was acquired due to the brittleness of the middle infield, and that's likely where he'll get a lot of the playing time.
I do expect his offense to decline from peak/remain closer to his 2017 level than previous. His BABIP is at least partially explained by the fact that he made far weaker contact last year:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yangervis-solarte-and-the-blue-jays-attempt-to-thread-the-needle/
He's also a lower-than-average BABIP player in general, in part because he's one of the most popup-prone hitters in baseball.
You also have to consider asset value. The reason signing Estrada for one more year made sense as opposed to trading him for anything with a pulse last July was because the team gets the extra year of production and (if things go south again next trade deadline) possibly an asset with higher trade value this time around. The front office has done a very good job, for the most part, in acquiring more value than giving out. Whether it was the original Liriano trade, to the follow up one, to the Smith trade, Diaz trade, etc. It's not necessarily about lining everyone up to fit a time line, it's about getting as much value as possible into the organization.
I agree that we've acquired more value than we have sent out. That will regrettably change if and when we lose multiple valuable players for next to nothing after this season. Shapiro and Atkins have done an admirable job of working the margins, but it's going to take more than that.
I just don't see the reasoning behind obsessing over every prospect in the system. Some will have to be moved even if the team begins to rebuild. Some might be overvalued (in the eyes of the front office) and will be moved at perceived peak value. They'll trade one eventually, guess wrong, and regret it. All of this is pretty normal. You can't hoard every single prospect in the system. Eventually some will have to be moved for big league help, and in this case, the Jays are getting three very inexpensive years out of a useful player who has more value than Olivares now, and likely more a year or two from now depending on how he does.
Not every prospect, no. I wasn't in the least concerned about shipping out Woodman for Diaz, as an example. With Olivares, it's the simple fact we don't have a lot of players with his upside. I'd rather that we were acquiring such rather than trading them away for fringe-average infielders.
