Spring Training 2018

[vaff87]

Very casual fan here. Does Vladdy have the chance to be a generational talent or possibly the best 3B in the league? What about Bo Bichette?

At there plate, I'd say Vladdy could be a Miguel Cabrera type talent. He might even outstrip his father. His plate discipline is way better already than dad. Best 3B is less likely, because there are some excellent two way players at 3B. Not that Guerrero is as bad at 3B as some expected, but if Manny Machado doesn't shift to SS (as he would like), he presents a compelling two way package. I doubt Bo will be "generational", but a potential multi-time all-star, seems like a reasonable bet. Also, I really think if he can remain healthy, Anthony Alford has similar all-star potential - the complete package except maybe an average arm. Pearson might be a top of the rotation pitching talent in the making, too. So the thing I'm watching for is whether any of the other really good prospects in the farm system can join that foursome. We'll get to see Eric Pardhino pitch in North America this year, Logan Warmoth moves to full-season ball... lots of interesting talent.

The Jays will also draft 12th in June, and this is supposed to be an above average draft. It will be interesting to see if the Jays target a high schooler, or if it's a close call on talent, go for college to bring the pick closer to the majors close behind some of the talents I mentioned above.

Yeah, I think Vladdy definitely has the potential to be a "generational talent" at the plate.

It's funny that when you said Bichette has the potential to be a "multi time all star", my initial reaction was "that's selling him short" lol. I do think he has to potential to be a perennial all star. Potentially similar to guys like Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent, Chase Utley, Jose Altuve,etc. Elite offensive second basemen. And who knows, maybe he'll even be able to stay at short?

[Schad]

The Brewers gave up MLB Pipeline's #27 and #71 prospects, plus the 4th-ranked 2B and something of a sleeper starting prospect. For all the **** that the Marlins (deservedly) take for their dealings this offseason, that wasn't a terrible trade. The overall value exceeds Bichette alone.

And it isn't Gord or JP, but it is Rogers. And so long as it's Rogers, we aren't going to have a coherent plan. So yeah, I think concern over wasting the primes of Vlad/Bo because we try desperately to get back to borderline competitiveness is a real worry.

[vaff87]

The Brewers gave up MLB Pipeline's #27 and #71 prospects, plus the 4th-ranked 2B and something of a sleeper starting prospect. For all the **** that the Marlins (deservedly) take for their dealings this offseason, that wasn't a terrible trade. The overall value exceeds Bichette alone.

And it isn't Gord or JP, but it is Rogers. And so long as it's Rogers, we aren't going to have a coherent plan. So yeah, I think concern over wasting the primes of Vlad/Bo because we try desperately to get back to borderline competitiveness is a real worry.

Rogers bought the team in 2000; Gord Ash was out as GM in 2001. You can't blame Rogers for Gord Ash's tenure.

[Schad]

Rogers bought the team in 2000; Gord Ash was out as GM in 2001. You can't blame Rogers for Gord Ash's tenure.

Absolutely. Interbrew wasn't any better, though.

[Schad]

Gift is coming north, so we're going to need to clear three 40-man spots. One might be Tulo to the 60-day, however.

Gift is already on the 40 man.

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/roster/

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2017-roster.shtml

Yeah, had forgotten that he was picked up on waivers. So just two spots to clear.

[dagger]

The Brewers gave up MLB Pipeline's #27 and #71 prospects, plus the 4th-ranked 2B and something of a sleeper starting prospect. For all the **** that the Marlins (deservedly) take for their dealings this offseason, that wasn't a terrible trade. The overall value exceeds Bichette alone.

And it isn't Gord or JP, but it is Rogers. And so long as it's Rogers, we aren't going to have a coherent plan. So yeah, I think concern over wasting the primes of Vlad/Bo because we try desperately to get back to borderline competitiveness is a real worry.

The thing is, with those two plus Pearson and Alford, the rebuild need not take forever, but wasting what we could have gotten this winter for Donaldson and Happ, it might well have happened faster. Ticket sales are slow, the fans aren't stupid - they aren't going all in for a borderline playoff team, so ownership could well have gone all in on a rebuild with the idea of maxing a rebuild that would truly begin at the major league level through the course of 2019

[Kinger95]

Honestly I’d strongly consider trading sanchez(to the NL).

If the staff doesn’t think he can stay healthy it’s somewhat of a risk counting on him to be your ace not to mention the fact he’s young controllable and would fetch you an absolute ton. And the guys you got in the trade back could be guys in double/Single A that are 18-22 that have even more control and line up better with vlad and bo

[satyr9]

Gift is coming north, so we're going to need to clear three 40-man spots. One might be Tulo to the 60-day, however.

Gift is already on the 40 man.

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/roster/

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2017-roster.shtml

Yeah, had forgotten that he was picked up on waivers. So just two spots to clear.

Smith is one right? I can't imagine who would be jumping to take Smith. And/or one or two of the newerly acquired Moll/Gaviglio/Guerrieri types. Anyway any of those 4 feel fairly safe to me. Yes there's always a chance someone likes them, but it's hardly too much in the way of a loss. There'll be an equivalent or better available on waivers again sooner rather than later.

[Tanner]

The Brewers gave up MLB Pipeline's #27 and #71 prospects, plus the 4th-ranked 2B and something of a sleeper starting prospect. For all the **** that the Marlins (deservedly) take for their dealings this offseason, that wasn't a terrible trade. The overall value exceeds Bichette alone.

And it isn't Gord or JP, but it is Rogers. And so long as it's Rogers, we aren't going to have a coherent plan. So yeah, I think concern over wasting the primes of Vlad/Bo because we try desperately to get back to borderline competitiveness is a real worry.

I meant the Marlins did not get a single player as good as Bichette (who many people were willing to give up for Yelich). Bo is probably a consensus top 10-15 prospect in baseball depending on the publication. Getting Brinson and some other good prospects isn't terrible, but it's not a huge haul either for a 4 war player in his mid 20's with five years of cheap contract left. Point was teams were not giving up prospects this winter, certainly not for 30-somethings with one year of control left.

The next wave of position players are coming. Unless Rogers forces the front office to trade them (they won't), and barring injury/bad performance, it looks pretty likely that by some time in 2019 we will see all of Vlad, Bo, Alford, Hernandez, Jansen/McGuire, and Gurriel in the Majors in some capacity. That covers some pretty important positions assuming vlad stays at 3B, Bo at short, Alford at Cf, etc. It might take a few years for that group to come together, and they'll need more help as well, but I don't see how trading vets for limited return is going to speed up the Vlad era or make it better. The time to rebuild was after 2016, but that was never going to happen after they made the ALCS, so might as well soak as much as you can get out of JD. Plus if the team is out of it this July, then they'll get some prospects in that scenario too.

Jays front office is too smart to throw things away for a run at mediocrity. This is the 3rd straight opening day that they will be projected by Fangraphs to make the playoffs. That's really all you can ask for.

[phillipmike]

Im of the opinion if Alford had better health throughout his career or even just last year and played a month in the MLB with passable stats that he would have been rated as highly as Brinson by other lists. His health is the only thing holding him back thus far.

Sickels rated the prospects the Marlins got as;
35) Lewis Brinson, OF, Marlins, Grade B+
110) Monte Harrison, OF, Marlins, Grade B
124) Isan Diaz, 2B-SS, Marlins, Grade B
NR) Jordan Yamamoto, RHP

The equivalent for the Jays would have been something like;
36) Anthony Alford, OF, BlueJays, Grade B+
126) Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays, Grade B
142) Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Blue Jays, Grade B
147) Logan Warmoth, SS, Blue Jays, Grade B

Alford would have stung but having Yelich this year with Donaldson would have been great plus 4 more years with Vladdy and Bichette would have been great. Would have prefered to have kept Jansen - probably could have swapped in someone else but if there was a deal to get Yelich without Vladdy, Bo or Pearson then i would have jumped all over it.

Its a shame as Yelich is a stud and player you make room for but considering there wasnt any additional deals to address their pitching i just dont see the point or logic for Brewers. Now they have to sit a good bat or sell low on a player because of the Yelich and Cain addition. We finished 2nd and just our luck the Brewers had a "fluke" good year at the wrong time for us - if it wasnt for that then the Jays dont finish 2nd for Yelich and we might have just added another cornerstone to the team.

[phillipmike]

Gift is coming north, so we're going to need to clear three 40-man spots. One might be Tulo to the 60-day, however.

Gift is already on the 40 man.

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/roster/

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2017-roster.shtml

Yeah, had forgotten that he was picked up on waivers. So just two spots to clear.

Probably and easy DFA of Moll and likely 60 DL stint for Tulo.

[jaymeister15]

Honestly I’d strongly consider trading sanchez(to the NL).

If the staff doesn’t think he can stay healthy it’s somewhat of a risk counting on him to be your ace not to mention the fact he’s young controllable and would fetch you an absolute ton. And the guys you got in the trade back could be guys in double/Single A that are 18-22 that have even more control and line up better with vlad and bo

What makes you think he can't stay healthy? He pitched the full season as a starter in 2016 and missed most of last season due to a blister (and the related issues). I don't really see any reason to think he's more of an injury risk than any other starting pitcher out there.

[Schad]

I meant the Marlins did not get a single player as good as Bichette (who many people were willing to give up for Yelich). Bo is probably a consensus top 10-15 prospect in baseball depending on the publication. Getting Brinson and some other good prospects isn't terrible, but it's not a huge haul either for a 4 war player in his mid 20's with five years of cheap contract left. Point was teams were not giving up prospects this winter, certainly not for 30-somethings with one year of control left.

People were willing to give up Bichette for him. People probably wouldn't have been willing to give up Bichette plus, I dunno, Warmoth and Urena or something, which is probably a rough estimate of the value involved.

The next wave of position players are coming. Unless Rogers forces the front office to trade them (they won't), and barring injury/bad performance, it looks pretty likely that by some time in 2019 we will see all of Vlad, Bo, Alford, Hernandez, Jansen/McGuire, and Gurriel in the Majors in some capacity. That covers some pretty important positions assuming vlad stays at 3B, Bo at short, Alford at Cf, etc. It might take a few years for that group to come together, and they'll need more help as well, but I don't see how trading vets for limited return is going to speed up the Vlad era or make it better. The time to rebuild was after 2016, but that was never going to happen after they made the ALCS, so might as well soak as much as you can get out of JD. Plus if the team is out of it this July, then they'll get some prospects in that scenario too.

The odds are that some of those prospects will fail, because that's what happens. And yeah, we absolutely have some real position talent, and by 2020 many of them will be above-average. We also have one of the worst groups of pitching prospects in baseball, and our current major league talent will be leaving the club after 2020 unless we blow this thing sky high. Which, I mean, we won't.

Jays front office is too smart to throw things away for a run at mediocrity. This is the 3rd straight opening day that they will be projected by Fangraphs to make the playoffs. That's really all you can ask for.

Jays front office doesn't ultimately make those decisions. And Shapiro has already stated that, if making decisions based solely on the team, they'd have already started a rebuild.

And we aren't projected to make the playoffs. We have the fifth-best odds of doing so, but that's not the same thing as being more likely than not to make them.

[Schad]

Sickels rated the prospects the Marlins got as;
35) Lewis Brinson, OF, Marlins, Grade B+
110) Monte Harrison, OF, Marlins, Grade B
124) Isan Diaz, 2B-SS, Marlins, Grade B
NR) Jordan Yamamoto, RHP

The equivalent for the Jays would have been something like;
36) Anthony Alford, OF, BlueJays, Grade B+
126) Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays, Grade B
142) Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Blue Jays, Grade B
147) Logan Warmoth, SS, Blue Jays, Grade B

As with most prospect eval, depends who you use. MLBPipeline has Brinson 27th and Alford 47th, but they also have Jansen far higher.

[Schad]

On predictions, 538 just released their model for the year: 81-81 projected record, 27% chance to make the playoffs, roughly a 17-18% chance to make the ALDS (they don't post odds for such, so I'm extrapolating from their division/WC odds).

PECOTA has also added their playoff odds: 80-82 projected record, 4.4% chance to win the division, 20.4% to reach the playoffs in any fashion, 12% to play in an actual playoff round.

Our over/under, per Bodog, is 81-81.

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

[So_Fresh]

so who will be doing the opening series thread? Lateral Quicks, dagger, vaff87, polo007 or Schad? One of you should start it. You guys have been here longer than anyone else.

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

On the eve of the Toronto Blue Jays‘ opening game of the 2018 season, team president Mark Shapiro is feeling confident about the team he and general manager Ross Atkins have constructed.

After a devastating 2017 campaign failed to live up to the expectation of a second straight American League Championship Series appearance, the Blue Jays will now be looking to get back on track.

And it looks like the hope is that it will be on the backs of their pitchers.

“Most of the work has been done to put us in position to be a contending ball club,” Shapiro said Wednesday on Prime Time Sports. “We are going to go as our pitching takes us. We feel really good about our starting pitching. We know we’ve got four guys that we’re really familiar with and Jaime Garcia had one of the best springs of starters in major league spring training.”

The four arms he spoke of have been the usual suspects on the mound at first pitch over the last couple of years: J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman. The core of the pitching rotation combined for 52 wins (20 from opening day starter Happ) in a particularly dominant 2016. Sanchez led the American League in ERA with 3.00 that year but was predominantly kept off the field in 2017 while dealing with blister issues.

Now, with the addition of Garcia, Shapiro feels good about the starting five heading into a fresh season.

“If you put out a starter each night that has a good chance to win, I think that’s a good start.”

[Tanner]

The odds are that some of those prospects will fail, because that's what happens. And yeah, we absolutely have some real position talent, and by 2020 many of them will be above-average. We also have one of the worst groups of pitching prospects in baseball, and our current major league talent will be leaving the club after 2020 unless we blow this thing sky high. Which, I mean, we won't.

Sure some will fail, but the closer they are to the bigs, the more you can at least project something out of them. You definitely want to have a good quantity with prospects, but the quality is far more important. I'm not sure you can get that quality for one year rentals anymore, certainly not ones in their 30's. Right now the team's timeline has Vlad, Bo, Alford, Jansen, and Gurriel likely coming up around the same time (some time in 2019, or possibly the end of 2018 with the latter three). That's pretty much five of their top 10 prospects depending on how you view Gurriel. Then there's Hernandez who is a bit of a boom or bust (liking the power but the K rate is worrisome). If the goal is to get as many young prospects at the big league level at the same time, the Jays are on a solid track on the position player side.

The pitching side is bad, yes, but tbh I'd rather just re-sign Estrada and Happ for 1-2 more years after this season (regardless of team direction) than depend on pitching prospects. Young position players + vet pitching is the key.

Jays front office doesn't ultimately make those decisions. And Shapiro has already stated that, if making decisions based solely on the team, they'd have already started a rebuild.

And we aren't projected to make the playoffs. We have the fifth-best odds of doing so, but that's not the same thing as being more likely than not to make them.

If the team is awful again this year, and lose JD, then I don't see what Rogers could possibly ask for to make the competitive in 2019. Even if they ask to promote Vlad to boost interest, chances are Vlad will be ready by the start of 2019 anyway at the rate he's going, so the only drawback will be for service time manipulation (and Shapiro might be able to convince ownership on that).

2018 is the front office trying to squeeze one last drop out of this group before they transition into their next wave. The only thing Rogers could do to change that is forcing them to sign JD and giving them a blank check to do it. That doesn't seem like something Rogers would do though, especially if revenue dips.

One more bad season and it wouldn't shock me if Rogers is ok with a rebuild, as long as it's quick. They are baseball illiterate but they know money.

[Schad]

[
Sure some will fail, but the closer they are to the bigs, the more you can at least project something out of them. You definitely want to have a good quantity with prospects, but the quality is far more important. I'm not sure you can get that quality for one year rentals anymore, certainly not ones in their 30's. Right now the team's timeline has Vlad, Bo, Alford, Jansen, and Gurriel likely coming up around the same time (some time in 2019, or possibly the end of 2018 with the latter three). That's pretty much five of their top 10 prospects depending on how you view Gurriel. Then there's Hernandez who is a bit of a boom or bust (liking the power but the K rate is worrisome). If the goal is to get as many young prospects at the big league level at the same time, the Jays are on a solid track on the position player side.

They might come up in 2019. An optimistic assessment has them being relatively good in 2020. At the end of the 2020 season, the following players are free agents: Stroman, Sanchez, Travis, Pillar, and Osuna. We kinda need to address the fact that there's really no overlap between their tenure and that of our youngsters.

The pitching side is bad, yes, but tbh I'd rather just re-sign Estrada and Happ for 1-2 more years after this season (regardless of team direction) than depend on pitching prospects. Young position players + vet pitching is the key.

Happ and Estrada aren't likely to be any good in 2019 and 2020. We'll be lucky if they're any good this season. Take a gander at the best 35+ pitchers in baseball last year...it's a really short list.

If the team is awful again this year, and lose JD, then I don't see what Rogers could possibly ask for to make the competitive in 2019. Even if they ask to promote Vlad to boost interest, chances are Vlad will be ready by the start of 2019 anyway at the rate he's going, so the only drawback will be for service time manipulation (and Shapiro might be able to convince ownership on that).

Rogers doesn't care about competitive, just being able to sell tickets in the guise of remaining competitive. Interestingly, our ticket figures suggest that a change of heart might be coming, because it hasn't worked. Our fanbase is fickle, and they haven't bought the idea that we're totally seriously competing this year. Judging by Shapiro's comments/the empty seats today, Rogers is going to discover a sudden desire to rebuild around late April, if we don't get off to a hot start. It's just unfortunate that they couldn't recognize the obvious nine months ago.

2018 is the front office trying to squeeze one last drop out of this group before they transition into their next wave. The only thing Rogers could do to change that is forcing them to sign JD and giving them a blank check to do it. That doesn't seem like something Rogers would do though, especially if revenue dips.

One more bad season and it wouldn't shock me if Rogers is ok with a rebuild, as long as it's quick. They are baseball illiterate but they know money.

I don't disagree on the final point. But it's a question of how quickly; do we go for a quick shift and try to be good in 2020, in the final year of the contracts of all of the aforementioned players? Because that's a really bad idea, another one-off against the odds.

During/after this season, we really need to start looking beyond 2020. And that doesn't just mean trading the impending FAs...it means, if extensions don't look likely, moving what was the young core. They'll have two seasons remaining, one of which we're in agreement will be a lost season, and if we want to be good during the Vlad/Bo/whoever era, we need to cash in some of those chips.