April 19-22: Blue birds @ Bronx boo birds

[dagger]

April 19:
Aaron Sanchez (1-1, 3.66 ERA) vs CC Sabathia (0-0, 4.00 ERA)

April 20:
Marco Estrada (1-1, 4.24 ERA) vs Sonny Gray (1-1, 6.92 ERA)

April 21:
Marcus Stroman (0-1, 7.98 ERA) vs Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 4.70 ERA)

April 22:
Jaime Garcia (2-0, 3.86 ERA) vs Louis Severino (3-, 2.63 ERA)

[Skin Blues]

Jaime Garcia vs Severino. I think that's gonna turn out poorly. Garcia has been losing velo at a pretty scary rate so far. And he's not missing bats in the zone at all (Zone Contact is > 94%). He's getting fewer chases out of the zone than ever before, and therefore he's not getting any swinging strikes (7.3%, lowest of his career). I think we're due for an implosion, unfortunately. At least we got a few good games out of him.



editing this to add my post on Grichuk from the older game thread...

From Lott's article at The Athletic today, it looks like Gibby is close to making a decision on RF, and possibly giving those AB's to Teoscar. I know it'd be popular with fans, but would be a big mistake. Grichuk is performing exactly as we should expect, if not better. All performance indicators (K%, BB%, Chase Rate, Exit Velocity, and so on) are all pointing toward a 2 WAR right fielder when you take into account his defense. He's chasing less pitches out of the zone without lowering his swing rate on pitches in the zone. He's making better contact than ever before on the pitches he's hitting (2018 FB/LD Exit Velocity Leaderboard), and they simply aren't dropping in. To quickly summarize all of this in a table:



One of these things is not like the others. This is a 26 year old right fielder having probably the best season of his career (during which he's averaged 2.2 WAR per season) and we are possibly on the brink of replacing him due to three weeks of BABIP luck.

I hope the front office has a say in these things rather than leaving it up to Gibby, but we'll see...

[raptors2019]

Winning 3of4 or a sweep would be really nice.

[T-d0t]

3/4 seems likely with that pitching match-up but it never is that easy

[manjusaka]

I am wondering if there is something wrong with Garcia, He started out with 89mph during the 1st inning but ended with 85mph in the 5th on Tuesday.

As for Grichuk, he is hitting 62.9% of flyball this year, it is outrageously high. Normally, groundball hitters will have higher babip than the flyball hitters. His main problem so far, and he may continue to struggle with it, is contact%, especially the contact % within the strike zone.

[Skin Blues]

As for Grichuk, he is hitting 62.9% of flyball this year, it is outrageously high. Normally, groundball hitters will have higher babip than the flyball hitters. His main problem so far, and he may continue to struggle with it, is contact%, especially the contact % within the strike zone.

xwOBA takes into account launch angle and exit velocity, and gives a predicted outcome based on the average result of each individual batted ball. So, his problem isn't hitting the ball in the air too much, or not making contact. Flyballs indeed have a lower BABIP, but they also do way more damage when they aren't caught. Especially when they go over the fence. That's why everybody and their brother is trying to hit more of them. A guy with bad BABIP luck that misses out on 5 singles won't impact his wOBA very much. A guy with a bad BABIP luck that misses out on 3 doubles and 2 HR has a huge impact on his wOBA. Over the course of the season, wOBA tends to stabilize at around the same value as xwOBA, and not the other way around.

[BigLeagueChew]

game 1 is at 6:35pm

DH Steve Pearce (R)
LF T. Hernandez (R)
1B Justin Smoak (S)
3B Y. Solarte (S)
CF Kevin Pillar (R)
SS Aledmys Diaz (R)
RF Randal Grichuk (R)
C Luke Maile (R)
2B Devon Travis (R)

[Trilogy]

The god Luke Maile taking more time from Martin. He can't be stopped.

[Schad]

xwOBA takes into account launch angle and exit velocity, and gives a predicted outcome based on the average result of each individual batted ball. So, his problem isn't hitting the ball in the air too much, or not making contact. Flyballs indeed have a lower BABIP, but they also do way more damage when they aren't caught. Especially when they go over the fence. That's why everybody and their brother is trying to hit more of them. A guy with bad BABIP luck that misses out on 5 singles won't impact his wOBA very much. A guy with a bad BABIP luck that misses out on 3 doubles and 2 HR has a huge impact on his wOBA. Over the course of the season, wOBA tends to stabilize at around the same value as xwOBA, and not the other way around.

There is still a tonne of variability there. xwOBA (understandably) gives him quite a bit of credit for a number of deep fly outs that he has hit, which is as you say where a lot of the expected value comes from. At the same time, he's posting the worst swinging strike rate of his career, the lowest rate of hard contact (and highest rate of soft contact), and has popped out a bunch. He also has a big cluster of balls launched at quite a high angle, in the 35 degree range...those are balls that almost never drop in. They either leave the park, or they are caught. Check the event breakdown for 35 degree launches versus EV...if you really tag it (say, 100mph) the outcomes are ludicrously good, and if you thwack it but not quite as hard (95mph) it's an out more than 90% of the time. Get under the ball much more than that and it's an out 90% of the time no matter how hard you hit it.

Thus, a lot of the difference between wOBA and xwOBA owes to a handful of PAs given the low number of chances he has put in play; we're two-thirds of the way through April and his sample of balls in play is a mere 38. There's no question that he isn't anywhere near as bad as his numbers suggest, and will be more or less fine in the end, but there's also enough in his results to be concerned about until we have more than a few of those warning track shots to work from.

[T-d0t]

game 1 is at 6:35pm

DH Steve Pearce (R)
LF T. Hernandez (R)
1B Justin Smoak (S)
3B Y. Solarte (S)
CF Kevin Pillar (R)
SS Aledmys Diaz (R)
RF Randal Grichuk (R)
C Luke Maile (R)
2B Devon Travis (R)

That lineup looking juicy

[rotty]

God these guys on sportsnet are awful. Except jaime

[Kinger95]

Before the season we thought there was gonna be a lot of holes in the team and not a lot of runs but now with pierce and granderson hitting well and teoscar crushing the ball we’ve got a good situation

[Raps in 4]

Easy sweep

[MonkBatter42]

Why's no one there?

[Schad]

Why's no one there?

Attendance at New New Yankee Stadium has been sharply down, particularly in the most visible seats, because they jacked the prices up to obscene levels. In 2008, the final year at Old New Yankee Stadium, they drew 4.3m; last year it was 3.15m.

[BigLeagueChew]

should have been strike 3?

[Boogie!]

shouldve been strike 3. will sanchez ever improve his command.

[Boogie!]

stanton is just missing pitches.

[nonc]

Ever since new Yankee stadium with their gauging prices, they don't draw fans for ****.

[T-d0t]

Their TV ratings can probably even it out