Vlad Jr. at 3B, Donaldson at SS?

[Schad]

I understand that you want to keep him down another 12 months, and that's a fine opinion. If the team continues to stumble and we don't add pitching help, I might agree with it even though I think it's becoming a less and less viable option. But to argue in any way to say he's not ready because of his age is just silly. Has anybody ever been this good in their first run though at AA and been kept down for another 12 months before a callup??

Kris Bryant, George Springer (hit .303/.411/.600 with 37 HRs between AA/AAA), and Wil Myers (.314/.387/.600 with 37 HRs between AA/AAA) are the best examples I can think of with hitters. It's hard to find direct comps, period, simply because it's hard to find guys posting those numbers, but teams don't appear to have their hands forced.

Springer was another one whose service time manipulation was so blatant that the MLBPA threatened to file a grievance. Dave Cameron wrote about it at the time, and why it's basically a non-starter.

. As for what position he'd play; almost certainly 3B. Donaldson can play 1B, or 2B, or can be traded. He can't stay healthy at 3B anyway, between his calf and shoulder. Smoak can DH. There are a lot of options here, I'm not gonna say it's an easy fit. This is incidental to the fact that he's ready now, and deserves to be given the opportunity at the very least to prove himself in AAA for a month.

But unless Donaldson is unable to play the position, that makes us weaker overall, swapping an above-average defensive 3B for a fringe-average one is a net loss.

And absolutely, I'd think that another few weeks like this will see him promoted to AAA in early/mid June.

[Skin Blues]

I understand that you want to keep him down another 12 months, and that's a fine opinion. If the team continues to stumble and we don't add pitching help, I might agree with it even though I think it's becoming a less and less viable option. But to argue in any way to say he's not ready because of his age is just silly. Has anybody ever been this good in their first run though at AA and been kept down for another 12 months before a callup??

Kris Bryant, George Springer (hit .303/.411/.600 with 37 HRs between AA/AAA), and Wil Myers (.314/.387/.600 with 37 HRs between AA/AAA) are the best examples I can think of with hitters. It's hard to find direct comps, period, simply because it's hard to find guys posting those numbers, but teams don't appear to have their hands forced.

Springer was another one whose service time manipulation was so blatant that the MLBPA threatened to file a grievance. Dave Cameron wrote about it at the time, and why it's basically a non-starter.

. As for what position he'd play; almost certainly 3B. Donaldson can play 1B, or 2B, or can be traded. He can't stay healthy at 3B anyway, between his calf and shoulder. Smoak can DH. There are a lot of options here, I'm not gonna say it's an easy fit. This is incidental to the fact that he's ready now, and deserves to be given the opportunity at the very least to prove himself in AAA for a month.

But unless Donaldson is unable to play the position, that makes us weaker overall, swapping an above-average defensive 3B for a fringe-average one is a net loss.

And absolutely, I'd think that another few weeks like this will see him promoted to AAA in early/mid June.

Bryant is a good comp, and it's honestly hard to believe the Cubs got away with that. But, they did, so there's precedent that technically the Jays are in the clear to leave him down for another 11 months. However, I think if the Cubs were in a playoff race in 2014 the way they were in 2015, they give him the call in July. Which is all I hope for from the Jays' front office with Vlad. Shoehorning him into the lineup indeed would be hard, but honestly I think Donaldson would be a fine 2B and possibly be a defensive upgrade over Travis, Solarte, Gurriel, or whoever we're using there at the time. 2B and 3B are more interchangeable than a lot of people realize, and even more so with all the shifts these days. Gurriel is a solid SS, but a lot of his value comes from his arm strength which is mitigated at 2B, and I don't know if his bat is ready (his approach seems like what I would have otherwise expected from the 19 year old son of Vlad Sr. - swing at absolutely everything, make better-than-expected contact, with some power sprinkled in). The net gain of the actual 19 year old son of Vlad Sr. over Gurriel in the starting lineup is significant, IMO. This is all predicated on the Jays winning more than 50% of their games over the next month or two, and Vladdy continuing to do Vladdy things in Buffalo. Neither of which are a given, obviously. But it's nice to dream. It's a more fun problem to worry about than the dumpster fire that is our starting rotation.

[flatjacket1]

As for what position he'd play; almost certainly 3B. Donaldson can play 1B, or 2B, or can be traded. He can't stay healthy at 3B anyway, between his calf and shoulder. Smoak can DH. There are a lot of options here, I'm not gonna say it's an easy fit. This is incidental to the fact that he's ready now, and deserves to be given the opportunity at the very least to prove himself in AAA for a month.

Why are you so certain at 3B? He has a vacuum glove, but throws are fairly consistently off target. He reminds a lot of a young Edwin in that sense. Like Edwin's glove wasn't always the best, but eventually he figured that out but consistently missed first base. He stabilized around a .930 fielding with the .070 loss almost entirely in throwing errors. Vlad Jr's glove is definitely ahead of Edwins but the arm has much of the same issues. This year he has looked a bit better, but still seems to entirely airmail one every now and again. At his present stage of development it's really hard to argue he wouldn't be in the bottom five percentile in the league defensively, which would render him a better use at first (especially considering his glove being strong) with a positional loss of value (over a fielding loss).

That being said who cares. Vlad's bat truly plays anywhere, and anywhere in the generational talent sense not everywhere as in he can hit a bit. Like at this stage his hitting would likely make him a top DH in the league. That being said, I still like the idea of 1B (if he can develop a little at 3B obviously that's super ideal) and I still think he could be a near average corner OF. He is fairly fast despite his size. Either way it really doesn't matter where he plays.

Assuming he comes up today and they don't play around with a corner OF, I like the idea of JD at 3B, Vlad Jr. at 1B and trade Smoak. DHing Smoak to me seems a bit like a waste, defensively he is pretty unreal at 1B (despite the general uselessness of strong defensive play at that position).

[Skin Blues]

As for what position he'd play; almost certainly 3B. Donaldson can play 1B, or 2B, or can be traded. He can't stay healthy at 3B anyway, between his calf and shoulder. Smoak can DH. There are a lot of options here, I'm not gonna say it's an easy fit. This is incidental to the fact that he's ready now, and deserves to be given the opportunity at the very least to prove himself in AAA for a month.

Why are you so certain at 3B? He has a vacuum glove, but throws are fairly consistently off target. He reminds a lot of a young Edwin in that sense. Like Edwin's glove wasn't always the best, but eventually he figured that out but consistently missed first base. He stabilized around a .930 fielding with the .070 loss almost entirely in throwing errors. Vlad Jr's glove is definitely ahead of Edwins but the arm has much of the same issues. This year he has looked a bit better, but still seems to entirely airmail one every now and again. At his present stage of development it's really hard to argue he wouldn't be in the bottom five percentile in the league defensively, which would render him a better use at first (especially considering his glove being strong) with a positional loss of value (over a fielding loss).

That being said who cares. Vlad's bat truly plays anywhere, and anywhere in the generational talent sense not everywhere as in he can hit a bit. Like at this stage his hitting would likely make him a top DH in the league. That being said, I still like the idea of 1B (if he can develop a little at 3B obviously that's super ideal) and I still think he could be a near average corner OF. He is fairly fast despite his size. Either way it really doesn't matter where he plays.

Assuming he comes up today and they don't play around with a corner OF, I like the idea of JD at 3B, Vlad Jr. at 1B and trade Smoak. DHing Smoak to me seems a bit like a waste, defensively he is pretty unreal at 1B (despite the general uselessness of strong defensive play at that position).

I'm almost certain he'll start at 3B if called up any time soon, but in the long-run he could obviously be moved across the diamond. As for his arm, it's rated pretty highly from what I've read in a few different places. It's his best asset on defense. Can't see them having him learn a new position while simultaneously adjusting to MLB pitching. Also don't want to start him on the lowest rung on the defensive ladder unless they really don't think he can play 3B.

[I_Like_Dirt]

we're trading a roughly 2 WAR season (with potential for more, obviously) during a year in which we're legitimately competing for a playoff spot, for a roughly 6 WAR season in 2025 when we in all likelihood will not be in as good a position as we are now.

Those are some pretty massive assumptions. The Jays are pretty regular in the bottom of a group of teams "competing" for a wildcard spot and they're right there so far this season, but trending down. Bringing him up just to try to stay in the wild card race you are dropping out of fast would be utterly foolish, particularly given that the Jays' early season success manufactured the likes of the White Sox, Royals, Orioles, Rangers, etc. (generally teams below .400) might not be of the sustainable variety. You mentioned starting pitching, but the offense is starting to come back down to earth from what were obviously unsustainable levels - still good, but not best ever good.

And assuming the Jays likely won't be in as good of a position in 2025? Why on earth would you assume that? The Jays have a pretty consistent track record of being in a pretty similar position in most seasons, and this season definitely doesn't look like one of the rare exceptions to me. I think it's pretty likely that the Jays are in a similar position in 2025, with their best player staring down free agency, in the mix for a potential wild card spot that they may or may not get, and debating trading prospects to go for it or calling up players to try and give them a boost their current roster just can't because they've made a bunch of short-sighted moves in the meanwhile. That said, I actually think it's very possible the Jays aren't in that position and are better off because Shapiro and Atkins seem pretty astute overall, but they're fighting an uphill Rogers battle.

[Skin Blues]

we're trading a roughly 2 WAR season (with potential for more, obviously) during a year in which we're legitimately competing for a playoff spot, for a roughly 6 WAR season in 2025 when we in all likelihood will not be in as good a position as we are now.

Those are some pretty massive assumptions. The Jays are pretty regular in the bottom of a group of teams "competing" for a wildcard spot and they're right there so far this season, but trending down. Bringing him up just to try to stay in the wild card race you are dropping out of fast would be utterly foolish, particularly given that the Jays' early season success manufactured the likes of the White Sox, Royals, Orioles, Rangers, etc. (generally teams below .400) might not be of the sustainable variety. You mentioned starting pitching, but the offense is starting to come back down to earth from what were obviously unsustainable levels - still good, but not best ever good.

And assuming the Jays likely won't be in as good of a position in 2025? Why on earth would you assume that? The Jays have a pretty consistent track record of being in a pretty similar position in most seasons, and this season definitely doesn't look like one of the rare exceptions to me. I think it's pretty likely that the Jays are in a similar position in 2025, with their best player staring down free agency, in the mix for a potential wild card spot that they may or may not get, and debating trading prospects to go for it or calling up players to try and give them a boost their current roster just can't because they've made a bunch of short-sighted moves in the meanwhile. That said, I actually think it's very possible the Jays aren't in that position and are better off because Shapiro and Atkins seem pretty astute overall, but they're fighting an uphill Rogers battle.

They're assumptions made using the mean expected outcomes. Of course things can change, and the plans of action can change with time because of that.

For the 2025 season I'm going to assume we have a worse-than-30% chance of making the playoffs, because most teams are worse than that in any given season. Right now 9 of the 15 American League teams have less than a 15% chance to make the playoffs. Our 30% is not ideal, but it's a lot better than most people give it credit for. We're in a division with two teams that will always outspend us by a significant margin, so to expect us to be above the 60th percentile (where we are right now) in any given season is misplaced optimism.

So yeah, I think Vlad's age 19 season could be more valuable to us than his age 26 season, even though he'll likely be a better player in his age 26 season (especially considering his age 19 season will cost us $500K while his age 26 will cost us $30M). This could all change over the next few weeks, and it's not a decision that has to be made right now, anyway. But we should at least see what he can do against slightly better competition up in Buffalo.

[Schad]

For the 2025 season I'm going to assume we have a worse-than-30% chance of making the playoffs, because most teams are worse than that in any given season. Right now 9 of the 15 American League teams have less than a 15% chance to make the playoffs. Our 30% is not ideal, but it's a lot better than most people give it credit for. We're in a division with two teams that will always outspend us by a significant margin, so to expect us to be above the 60th percentile (where we are right now) in any given season is misplaced optimism.

Our odds, currently:

Make the playoffs (in any form): 29.2%.
Make the LDS: 13.1%.

Coin flip odds:

Make the playoffs (in any form): 33.3%.
Make the LDS: 26.7%.


Those are not good odds. Yeah, the AL East is generally tough, but it generally isn't "two teams projected to win 100 games" tough. Because that's the current state of play, our odds of actually playing in a real-by-god playoff round are well below average.

[augustine]

Ok Schad, lets grant you the point that the Jays making the playoffs is unlikely. But, the odds are higher of the Jays being in contention for a playoff spot in August. If the Jays are not in contention in August, I agree, let us not waste Vlad's clock for irrelevant games. But, if the Jays are in contention in August (which is plausible), and an elite bat would help (which is plausible), then these games he plays would not be a waste of Vlads clock, for they would be meaningful games. On this scenario, what would be the best way for the Jays to make it work?

[Skin Blues]

For the 2025 season I'm going to assume we have a worse-than-30% chance of making the playoffs, because most teams are worse than that in any given season. Right now 9 of the 15 American League teams have less than a 15% chance to make the playoffs. Our 30% is not ideal, but it's a lot better than most people give it credit for. We're in a division with two teams that will always outspend us by a significant margin, so to expect us to be above the 60th percentile (where we are right now) in any given season is misplaced optimism.

Our odds, currently:

Make the playoffs (in any form): 29.2%.
Make the LDS: 13.1%.

Coin flip odds:

Make the playoffs (in any form): 33.3%.
Make the LDS: 26.7%.


Those are not good odds. Yeah, the AL East is generally tough, but it generally isn't "two teams projected to win 100 games" tough. Because that's the current state of play, our odds of actually playing in a real-by-god playoff round are well below average.

Maybe you phrased this wrong by mistake, but our playoff odds are well above average. As I said, 9 of the 16 teams in the American League have less than 15% chance of even making the Wild Card game, let alone the ALDS.

[Schad]

Maybe you phrased this wrong by mistake, but our playoff odds are well above average. As I said, 9 of the 16 teams in the American League have less than 15% chance of even making the Wild Card game, let alone the ALDS.

No, that's not how averages work. Our odds are above the median, but that isn't worth anything.

[Schad]

Ok Schad, lets grant you the point that the Jays making the playoffs is unlikely. But, the odds are higher of the Jays being in contention for a playoff spot in August. If the Jays are not in contention in August, I agree, let us not waste Vlad's clock for irrelevant games. But, if the Jays are in contention in August (which is plausible), and an elite bat would help (which is plausible), then these games he plays would not be a waste of Vlads clock, for they would be meaningful games. On this scenario, what would be the best way for the Jays to make it work?

He isn't likely to be an elite bat. He's likely to be a slightly-better-than-what-we've-got bat.

[flatjacket1]

I'm almost certain he'll start at 3B if called up any time soon, but in the long-run he could obviously be moved across the diamond. As for his arm, it's rated pretty highly from what I've read in a few different places. It's his best asset on defense. Can't see them having him learn a new position while simultaneously adjusting to MLB pitching. Also don't want to start him on the lowest rung on the defensive ladder unless they really don't think he can play 3B.

Oh yeah his arm is 60 grade IMO. The thing about tools is they are reflective of strength more than ability. The vast majority of his errors are throwing, and will likely continue to be. I still doubt they will jump him up to the ML from AA. Likely send him to AAA around the AS break and if they do shift him anywhere, it will be then.

Edwin in the Majors had a similar Fielding% at 3B before he was moved to 1B. The only difference is Vlad is in AA right now, and it isn't likely to change much. I am more than happy to continue to play him at third, he still seems to be improving but long term it's unknown. I don't really think they are lying when they say they have him working on the defensive side of the ball (and thus keeping him in the minors). If you want to keep him at 3B he will likely be down there until September (maybe even next year if the 40 is jammed and the Bisons or NH make playoffs for Sept). If you wanted to bring him up you'd likely shift him to 1B for a couple weeks and call him up,

[longerray]

There is no way Donaldson could ever play shortstop. Shortstop is much more demanding than third base and he has not done well at third base in his time as a Blue Jay.

[BigLeagueChew]

There is no way Donaldson could ever play shortstop. Shortstop is much more demanding than third base and he has not done well at third base in his time as a Blue Jay.

You have to be trolling.

He's been fine at 3rd base am not sure where the 'has not done well' is coming from. His bat is better than his glove but like let's assume his defence is in fact bad.

Since 2013 Donaldson has been worth 34.6 fwar, that's #1 in the MLB for 3rd baseman. #2 is Manny Machado at 24.9 fwar, who is now a shortstop and #3 Adrian Beltre 24.3. The best currently in the mix might be Kris Bryant.

Donaldson can play wherever he damn well pleases.

[Yosemite Dan]

There’s about a 10% chance JD is a Jay after trade deadline and 0 chance he’s a Jay next year so this argument is pointless. Jays are not contending this year ago so there is no sane reason to bring up Vlad this year.

[dballislife]

you need a lot more quickness and agility at SS and 2b, you dont just go out there and start playing SS and 2b out of nowhere lol

also the organization and baseball experts do question vlads agility at 3b, hes got tree trunk legs, a huge booty, and a very stocky bulky natural build, and hes just a teenage kid, he should get even bigger...thats why most project he will be a MLB 1b/DH, of course we all want him to succeed at 3rd, but if i had to bet money on it imo hes a 1b/dh at mlb level

[Skin Blues]

2B and 3B are relatively interchangeable, there's a huge overlap in skills. Many of the other 3B with great range like Donaldson have also spent a considerable amount of time at 2B (Jose Ramirez, Turner, Rendon, Forsythe, etc). It's obviously a bit more challenging, so your typical lumbering 3B with poor range wouldn't do well at 2B. SS is different because small mistakes and shortcomings are magnified and cost you a lot more. JD would be fine at 2B though.

And Vladdy Jr., yeah, most likely he outgrows 3B. He's not exactly nimble. But there's a chance he sticks there for a little bit. Maybe he'll trim down like JD did before he became what he is at 3B.

[Schad]

Yeah, you're starting to see a lot of 2B/3B quasi-utility guys owing to that overlap. The use of shifts has altered the playing of 2B a bit; range absolutely still matters more there than at 3B, but against the left-handed hitters that provide a second baseman with the majority of their work, their area of responsibility is a fair bit smaller than it was in the 1980s.

[flatjacket1]

2B and 3B are relatively interchangeable, there's a huge overlap in skills. Many of the other 3B with great range like Donaldson have also spent a considerable amount of time at 2B (Jose Ramirez, Turner, Rendon, Forsythe, etc). It's obviously a bit more challenging, so your typical lumbering 3B with poor range wouldn't do well at 2B. SS is different because small mistakes and shortcomings are magnified and cost you a lot more. JD would be fine at 2B though.

And Vladdy Jr., yeah, most likely he outgrows 3B. He's not exactly nimble. But there's a chance he sticks there for a little bit. Maybe he'll trim down like JD did before he became what he is at 3B.

While I'd say the vast majority of 3B's can play 2B, it doesn't go both ways.

[hst420]

Donaldson is your third baseman. Vlad would be a 1st/DH.