RealGM

Call this a critical series if the leaks are to be plugged at the ship righted just a bit. It's on to Philly and Boston after this, so a series win is almost mandatory here. The Angels snapped a five game losing streak on Sunday, thanks to Otani's pitching, which also means the Jays only have to thwart his bat.

May 22, 7:07 pm

Garrett Richards (4-2, 3.47 ERA) vs Jay Happ (5-3, 4.15 ERA)



May 23, 7.07 pm

Tyler Skaggs (3-3, 2.88 ERA) vs Aaron Sanchez (2-4, 4.47 ERA)



May 24. 12:37 pm

Nich Tropeano, (1-3, 4.45 ERA) vs Marco Estrada (2-4, 5.15 ERA)

Good news on Victoria Day Monday - the Blue Jays did not lose today.

So when do we break out the John Salmons pic and officially start tanking the season?

as much as im dissapointed in this team.. I just want to see some blue jays baseball.

rottweiler93 wrote:as much as im dissapointed in this team.. I just want to see some blue jays baseball.

Unfortunately, the current state of affairs is that "blue jays baseball" brand is just Buck and Tabby. And they stink worse than the team.

This week could be the starting point of what happens in July.

How much trade value does JD lose if he continues to struggle along at this pace for another month?

The_Hater wrote:How much trade value does JD lose if he continues to struggle along at this pace for another month?

I think the actual question is, how much trade value does JD has right now? If he doesn't have much trade value right now, there is not much to lose.

manjusaka wrote:

The_Hater wrote:How much trade value does JD lose if he continues to struggle along at this pace for another month?

I think the actual question is, how much trade value does JD has right now? If he doesn't have much trade value right now, there is not much to lose.

His current value has taken a hit, but not nearly to the extent you seem to think. He was considered one of the top players in MLB just 6 weeks ago and it only takes one hot streak to get that value back. If his slump lasts another 5-6 weeks then it will sink even more.

The_Hater wrote:

manjusaka wrote:

The_Hater wrote:How much trade value does JD lose if he continues to struggle along at this pace for another month?

I think the actual question is, how much trade value does JD has right now? If he doesn't have much trade value right now, there is not much to lose.

His current value has taken a hit, but not nearly to the extent you seem to think. He was considered one of the top players in MLB just 6 weeks ago and it only takes one hot streak to get that value back. If his slump lasts another 5-6 weeks then it will sink even more.

Not all slumps are equivalent. There's the "he's striking out the same amount, still making lots of hard contact, and just getting unlucky for 6 weeks" slumps. And then there's the "K% spiked way up to almost 30%, soft-contact also spiked up, he can't pull the ball like he used to, his contact rate is down 10%-points, GB/FB is way up, and he's missed significant time due to two separate recurring injuries (calf, shoulder) over the past year" slump.

The second one is a lot worse. Especially for a guy that's 32 years old.

If his value falls so significantly that the return is hardly worth it, we can just hang on to him and hope he gets us a comp pick, and if his value is really REALLY down, well... he might be willing to take anyone's one-year deal. He would then join a growing list of older vets who should have signed extensions that were offered.

Skin Blues wrote:

The_Hater wrote:

manjusaka wrote:

I think the actual question is, how much trade value does JD has right now? If he doesn't have much trade value right now, there is not much to lose.

His current value has taken a hit, but not nearly to the extent you seem to think. He was considered one of the top players in MLB just 6 weeks ago and it only takes one hot streak to get that value back. If his slump lasts another 5-6 weeks then it will sink even more.

Not all slumps are equivalent. There's the "he's striking out the same amount, still making lots of hard contact, and just getting unlucky for 6 weeks" slumps. And then there's the "K% spiked way up to almost 30%, soft-contact also spiked up, he can't pull the ball like he used to, his contact rate is down 10%-points, GB/FB is way up, and he's missed significant time due to two separate recurring injuries (calf, shoulder) over the past year" slump.

The second one is a lot worse. Especially for a guy that's 32 years old.

While I agree with your premise, if he looks like the same guy he's been the past 5 years over the next 5 weeks scouts will write his slump off as an aberration or injury related and his value will rebound. My point is that his value hasn't bottomed out and could still get much lower.

Donaldson was one of the best players in baseball just last year. Unless his shoulder injury is really bad, he's going to get it together at some point.

From August 1st on, he hit 22 home runs and had a wRC+ of 187.

vaff87 wrote:Donaldson was one of the best players in baseball just last year. Unless his shoulder injury is really bad, he's going to get it together at some point.

From August 1st on, he hit 22 home runs and had a wRC+ of 187.

At some point, yeah, he'll probably get it together. We don't have a long time to wait, though. And while he finished last year strong, he still saw his K% jump up from his usual 17% or so to 22%. And that jumped up again to 28% this year. If he doesn't turn it around within a month it's unlikely he could do much to get his value close to where it was. If his shoulder is still messed up then chances he turns it around are slim. What assets will a team be willing to give up for a slumping hitter that has to be DH'd once per week just to keep his arm from falling off, and is owed $8M?? Probably not a lot.

Skin Blues wrote:

vaff87 wrote:Donaldson was one of the best players in baseball just last year. Unless his shoulder injury is really bad, he's going to get it together at some point.

From August 1st on, he hit 22 home runs and had a wRC+ of 187.

At some point, yeah, he'll probably get it together. We don't have a long time to wait, though. And while he finished last year strong, he still saw his K% jump up from his usual 17% or so to 22%. And that jumped up again to 28% this year. If he doesn't turn it around within a month it's unlikely he could do much to get his value close to where it was. If his shoulder is still messed up then chances he turns it around are slim. What assets will a team be willing to give up for a slumping hitter that has to be DH'd once per week just to keep his arm from falling off, and is owed $8M?? Probably not a lot.

His K% the over those last two months was back below 20%; down from 24.9% before that point.

LF C. Granderson (L)
3B Josh Donaldson (R)
1B Justin Smoak (S)
RF T. Hernandez (R)
CF Kevin Pillar (R)
C Russell Martin (R)
DH Kendrys Morales (S)
SS Gio Urshela (R)
2B Devon Travis (R)

dagger wrote:If his value falls so significantly that the return is hardly worth it, we can just hang on to him and hope he gets us a comp pick, and if his value is really REALLY down, well... he might be willing to take anyone's one-year deal. He would then join a growing list of older vets who should have signed extensions that were offered.

Problem is under the new Q.O. Rules, a comp pick for Donaldson would be a late second rounder, somewhere around 75-80th pick overall.

If they’re really planning to let JD walk, you’ll likely get more value trading him in July.

If they’re planning to sign him back, he might sign for a more reasonable contract compared to 3 months ago.

emptytheclip wrote:Problem is under the new Q.O. Rules, a comp pick for Donaldson would be a late second rounder, somewhere around 75-80th pick overall.

He could theoretically return a pick between the 1st round and Competitive Balance Round A, but only if he signs for $50m+ in guarantees. If he's coming off a poor season, that's definitely less likely, but there is a scenario where he's kinda middling and then explodes after the trade deadline, as he did last year, where a team might stump up the money.