June 1-3: Blue Jays next mission: Make Comerica Great Again

[johanliebert]

Sad thing is morales has been the best hitter lately.

[So_Fresh]

Feel bad for Gibby. Management put a team together that can't hit or pitch. This has got to be one of the worst Blue Jays teams ever.

[Wo1verine]

Sad thing is morales has been the best hitter lately.

Probably could be one of our best pitcher these days too!

[dagger]

Feel bad for Gibby. Management put a team together that can't hit or pitch. This has got to be one of the worst Blue Jays teams ever.

He's had several years of fun and good money. Not feeling sorry for him. I'm looking forward to an influx of young players who can do things like bunt, steal, execute a good hit and run on both ends, chase down balls in the power alleys that old men like Pearce and Granderson can't. In other words, I'm looking forward to when the Jays will be FUN to watch, and not just because of more wins.

[Schad]

Wasting? Lol

Yes, wasting. The way that baseball's service time clock works, if he is called up today, we get two-thirds of the 2018 season, plus 2019-2024, after which he's a free agent. At age 25. Each day that passes is one fewer day of Vlad that we get to see...unless we wait until early April of next year, in which case we get nearly 7 full years of Vlad, covering his 2019-2025 seasons.

There's an argument to be made that he's simply so good that all of that goes out the window, but if we're aiming to maximize how much quality time we get with Vlad, then it's a waste to burn a year of his team control on two-thirds of a season where he's 19 and wins and losses basically don't matter any more.

[Lateral Quicks]

Feel bad for Gibby. Management put a team together that can't hit or pitch. This has got to be one of the worst Blue Jays teams ever.

He's had several years of fun and good money. Not feeling sorry for him. I'm looking forward to an influx of young players who can do things like bunt, steal, execute a good hit and run on both ends, chase down balls in the power alleys that old men like Pearce and Granderson can't. In other words, I'm looking forward to when the Jays will be FUN to watch, and not just because of more wins.

One thing that absolutely must go is the swing for the fences approach. It leads to really boring baseball, unless you have a team full of prime Bautista's. I much prefer guys that can hit for average, walk at a good clip, put the ball in play and smack 20-25 HRs a year. The game is far more entertaining when guys are on base and the ball is regularly put in play.

I'm not an advocate of small ball in general, but there are times when it's appropriate. For example if a team is applying a severe shift, a major league batter should be able to lay down a bunt to where the defense ain't. Or what if you're facing a pitcher that obviously has his lights out stuff on the day - why not try to manufacture a run rather than have everyone try to hit a solo home run and strike out in the process? And would it kill our hitters to shorten up a bit with two strikes - it disgusts me everytime I see a guy swing for Mars with two strikes. Sure, if we're up by 10, swing away. If we're in a close game, how about showing some discipline and try to put the ball in play. The lack of situational awareness - or total inability or unwillingness to change approaches in different situations - is a glaring problem with this team, and has been for years.

[Schad]

There's nothing inherently wrong with having a team of players who sell out for the home run. The problem we have is that the team is so bad collectively at getting on base (despite a good walk rate) that we get less value for our power, and consequently we're one of the worst offenses in baseball despite being one of the most powerful.

For all the criticism that our situational hitting receives, it hasn't been the problem; we've actually produced marginally better in higher-leverage situations than in low leverage. Asking a bunch of big, slow guys with long power swings to shorten up isn't going to produce smallball, it's just going to produce some really awkward swings. We just need better hitters in general.

[manjusaka]

The problem we have is that the team is so bad collectively at getting on base (despite a good walk rate) that we get less value for our power, and consequently we're one of the worst offenses in baseball despite being one of the most powerful.

The reason that the Jays are so bad at getting on base is simply they can't hit. Walk rate isn't the major factor for the OBP, hit is, unless the player can consistently draw more than 100 walk in 600PA like Adam Dunn did. Despite we had good walk rate and hit HR last year, we still couldn't cash-in runs. Bautista had 84 walks in 686 PA(which is not bad at all), he still had a lackluster .308 OBP. Lateral Quicks' emphasis is not about hitting ground ball instead of flyball. It is about making consistent contact and get on base.

[Schad]

The reason that the Jays are so bad at getting on base is simply they can't hit. Walk rate isn't the major factor for the OBP, hit is, unless the player can consistently draw more than 100 walk in 600PA like Adam Dunn did. Despite we had good walk rate and hit HR last year, we still couldn't cash-in runs. Bautista had 84 walks in 686 PA(which is not bad at all), he still had a lackluster .308 OBP. Lateral Quicks' emphasis is not about hitting ground ball instead of flyball. It is about making consistent contact and get on base.

Sure, but these are not players that have made consistent contact prior to being with the Jays, either. Look at our acquisitions this offseason: Solarte had a .314 OBP in 2017, Grichuk .285, Diaz .290, Granderson .323. And they joined players who were themselves bad at getting on base. There's no chance in emphasis that is going to make them totally different hitters.

[Lateral Quicks]

There's nothing inherently wrong with having a team of players who sell out for the home run. The problem we have is that the team is so bad collectively at getting on base (despite a good walk rate) that we get less value for our power, and consequently we're one of the worst offenses in baseball despite being one of the most powerful.

For all the criticism that our situational hitting receives, it hasn't been the problem; we've actually produced marginally better in higher-leverage situations than in low leverage. Asking a bunch of big, slow guys with long power swings to shorten up isn't going to produce smallball, it's just going to produce some really awkward swings. We just need better hitters in general.

You're right that we're euchred with this team of long swing types. I just want the next generation to focus on making regular, hard contact, and be able to show some bat control when the situation calls for it. Do that and the home runs will come. Not at the same rate as the guy who swings for fences in every situation of course, but fewer home runs in exchange for more doubles and a significantly higher on base percentage is the kind of tradeoff I like a lot.

[Schad]

I don't think we need to worry a tonne on that score. We'll have some high-strikeout types (that's just the nature of baseball these days), but most of our good hitting prospects are bat-to-ball types: Vlad has a sub-10% K rate, Jansen's an on-base monster with a pretty low K rate, Gurriel's not a big strikeout guy (though it remains to be seen whether he'll make enough hard contact), and Bichette's K rate projects to be reasonable enough if higher than those two. Of the guys likely to graduate in the next eighteen months, only Alford comes with a red flag concerning strikeouts, and that's a fairly recent development.

Really, I'd say the best development path for each hitter is the one that results in the overall best player; there are other guys who might be swing-away types that hit the ball hard enough to post good numbers despite the strikeouts. Try to work with them on pitch selection, definitely, but don't try to shoehorn them into a model if the overall results are good. It wouldn't be wise to tell the Yankees lineup to take a line-drive approach to cut down their Ks, as an example, because despite an above-average strikeout rate and absolutely no inclination to move runners along they are far and away the best offense in baseball.

[manjusaka]

The reason that the Jays are so bad at getting on base is simply they can't hit. Walk rate isn't the major factor for the OBP, hit is, unless the player can consistently draw more than 100 walk in 600PA like Adam Dunn did. Despite we had good walk rate and hit HR last year, we still couldn't cash-in runs. Bautista had 84 walks in 686 PA(which is not bad at all), he still had a lackluster .308 OBP. Lateral Quicks' emphasis is not about hitting ground ball instead of flyball. It is about making consistent contact and get on base.

Sure, but these are not players that have made consistent contact prior to being with the Jays, either. Look at our acquisitions this offseason: Solarte had a .314 OBP in 2017, Grichuk .285, Diaz .290, Granderson .323. And they joined players who were themselves bad at getting on base. There's no chance in emphasis that is going to make them totally different hitters.

Yes that is the problem, scouting and team construction philosophy. They targeted players that swing for the long ball but can't get on bases with cheap contracts(I do like those acquisitions to fill the gap in this transitional year.). The recipe worked for us in the past because we had the MVP caliper hitters in Bautista, EE and Donaldson. When they are not preforming as they supposed to like Bautista last year and Donaldson this year, combine with all other guys that can't get on bases, it is doom to fail miserably. I don't mind to have couple of guys like Grichuk or Teoscar type in the bottom of the order. But a collection of them results as what we had seem so far. We need Yellich or Cain type of hitter on top of the order, Travis fits here but he only appeared 100 games or more in a season once in his entire career, shouldn't rely on him at the beginning.


There are many reasons to be optimistic next year. If everything goes right, our younger guys will take over the middle of the order. That leadoff spot is questionable at the moment because of the way Alford is slumping and his ability to stay healthy.

[manjusaka]

Really, I'd say the best development path for each hitter is the one that results in the overall best player; there are other guys who might be swing-away types that hit the ball hard enough to post good numbers despite the strikeouts. Try to work with them on pitch selection, definitely, but don't try to shoehorn them into a model if the overall results are good. It wouldn't be wise to tell the Yankees lineup to take a line-drive approach to cut down their Ks, as an example, because despite an above-average strikeout rate and absolutely no inclination to move runners along they are far and away the best offense in baseball.

That is because Yankees has two of the best power hitter in the league and the Yankees(Coors Field East) Stadium. The Red Sox in contrast was a team with line-drive approach and with good offensive output last year.

[Schad]

That is because Yankees has two of the best power hitter in the league and the Yankees(Coors Field East) Stadium. The Red Sox in contrast was a team with line-drive approach and with good offensive output last year.

The Red Sox last year were a far worse offensive team than they are this year, though, and the difference is that they're hitting more home runs. I'd definitely take the 2018 version (identical OBP, but a 58 point jump in slugging percentage), despite the fact that they're striking out slightly more and walking a little less, and hitting fewer line drives in favour of more flyballs and more of a pull-happy approach.

[manjusaka]

That is because Yankees has two of the best power hitter in the league and the Yankees(Coors Field East) Stadium. The Red Sox in contrast was a team with line-drive approach and with good offensive output last year.

The Red Sox last year were a far worse offensive team than they are this year, though, and the difference is that they're hitting more home runs. I'd definitely take the 2018 version (identical OBP, but a 58 point jump in slugging percentage), despite the fact that they're striking out slightly more and walking a little less, and hitting fewer line drives in favour of more flyballs and more of a pull-happy approach.

It is #2 offensive team currently, vs a above average offensive team last year, I will take the 2018 version too.

Between a team with 4.85 RS/G with 168HR and 4.28RS/G with 222HR, I will take the first team any day.

[dagger]

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[Schad]

It is #2 offensive team currently, vs a above average offensive team last year, I will take the 2018 version too.

Between a team with 4.85 RS/G with 168HR and 4.28RS/G with 222HR, I will take the first team any day.

Sure, but they got more than a wee bit lucky. They were 22nd in wRC+ last year: a well below-average overall outfit who got timely hitting, in the form of cluster luck. And before pointing to the timely hitting as being the product of their approach, I'd note that -- after the Houston Astros -- the team with the second-luckiest offense in baseball this year happens to be the all-slug, no-bunt Toronto Blue Jays. Most of that was in April, where we were the luckiest team in baseball by a mile.

[dagger]

Can we all agree that regardless of the approach, this terrible team is going nowhere but down and that the offensive approach taken will almost certainly be different, a function of the personnel being different?

[rotty]

lmao wow

[Schad]

On the season, we're 8-3 when Happ starts, and 17-29 when he doesn't. Since May 12th, we're 3-0 when Happ starts, 1-14 when he doesn't.