2018 July 2nd IFA Thread: Orelvis Martinez, Javier D’Orazio, Amell Brazoban

[-MetA4-]

There isn't much to say as we've known for a while now that we are expected to sign Dominican SS/3B Orelvis Martinez to the largest deal of the class ($3+ million+) which would account for the majority of our allocated $4,983,500 bonus pool. Two other names have since been linked to us: Venezuelan C Javier D'Orazio, and Dominican OF Amell Brazoban. Neither player made the BA or MLB top lists (Brazoban got a mention on MLB's "Best of the Rest" list) but their pre-July mention generally indicates that these are ~mid to high six figure signees as well.

The BA and MLB writeups on Orelvis Martinez are easy to find and have been reposted several times so I won't include those here. Instead I'll link the following writeup from the February showcase in the Dominican which actually includes two MLB scout quotes, as reported by César Augusto Márquez for La Vida Baseball

SS Orelvis Martínez
Born Nov. 19, 2001, in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
6-foot-1 / 190 pounds
Projected club: Toronto Blue Jays

Other than Juan Pablo Martínez, no prospect may be more coveted than Orelvis. The Blues Jays, who last summer made a big splash by signing the hard-throwing Brazilian Eric Pardinho, are homing in on another talented teenager. Orelvis is a right-handed hitter with a compact swing, smooth mechanics, good extension and gap power. While not a speedy runner, defensively he has soft hands, an above-average arm and decent range to both sides.

“He is the most talented player coming out this year. He can hit to any part of the field. And he has pop, which is very good for a player who is still developing,” a scout for a team in the American League East told La Vida Baseball.

“Orelvis should take less than five years to make it to the major leagues. The question is whether it will be as a shortstop or, because of his height, as a third baseman,” said a scout for a team in the National League West.

Watch on YouTube

OF Amell Brazoban is listed as 5'11 165 pounds, here is some batting practice footage of him:

[-MetA4-]

From Badler's newest article:

Born: Nov. 19, 2001 | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 180 | B-T: R-R

Scouting Report:

While it remains to be seen what happens with Cuban outfielder Victor Mesa, the top signing bonus this year for a 16-year-old international player is expected to go to Martinez, who is projected to sign with the Blue Jays for more than $3 million. Martinez trains with Rudy Santin, whose program last year produced the No. 1 international prospect for 2017, Wander Franco, a switch-hitting Dominican shortstop who consistently dominated at the plate. Martinez isn’t at Franco’s level—there isn’t one 2018 hitter from the Dominican Republic who has clearly separated himself with overwhelming performance—but Martinez stood out for his ability to drive the ball with impact from an early age. Martinez starts his swing with the bat wrapped behind his head, which adds extra length for the barrel to travel, but he has quick hands and keeps them inside the ball well. He has a calm, relaxed swing that generates loft and easy power from right-center field over to his pull side, with the physical projection to develop plus power. Martinez has shown solid game performance in terms of both hitting ability and power, though some scouts have reservations about the adjustability of his swing. Martinez might begin his career at shortstop, but he projects better at third base. A slightly below-average runner, Martinez has soft hands and a strong arm, but he’s a physical player who could grow to 220-230 pounds, with his range better suited for third.

[mini]

Has there been some sort of cost analysis done about the whole IFA process? As an outsider (and not full abreast of the goings on) it seems as though it's always the same teams spending up to the limit (or sometimes over) on the IFA market. When, given the seemingly 'small' cost vs. the long-term rewards (say of even 1 signing panning out), why is it always the same teams? Is it because they have the scouts there, the facilities, the history (Jays in the Dominican for example)? Anyway, I'm pretty pleased that we always seem to be landing the bigger IFAs every year.

Would there be any way to figure-out the amount the Jays spent over say 8-10 years on the whole and compare that to the Major League value (in dollars v. production) from those players that we received? Like Vladdy Jr's. potential production alone could be worth the high 8-figures when it's all said and done no?

The end.

[Schad]

Has there been some sort of cost analysis done about the whole IFA process? As an outsider (and not full abreast of the goings on) it seems as though it's always the same teams spending up to the limit (or sometimes over) on the IFA market. When, given the seemingly 'small' cost vs. the long-term rewards (say of even 1 signing panning out), why is it always the same teams? Is it because they have the scouts there, the facilities, the history (Jays in the Dominican for example)? Anyway, I'm pretty pleased that we always seem to be landing the bigger IFAs every year.

Would there be any way to figure-out the amount the Jays spent over say 8-10 years on the whole and compare that to the Major League value (in dollars v. production) from those players that we received? Like Vladdy Jr's. potential production alone could be worth the high 8-figures when it's all said and done no?

IFA is absolutely a major source of added value, for basically every team. And yeah, the primary reason some teams do better than others seems to be team infrastructure; these deals are effectively closed months in advance, and the teams that have the connections and the staff to evaluate these kids and work out agreements early have the leg up.

It's something that AA deserves a lot of credit for doing: he rebuilt our Latin American scouting system after it had atrophied from, like, 1995-2010, as he recognized that it's an area where it's quite expensive to be cheap.

[vaff87]

It must be hard for these prospect evaluators to know a whole lot about these kids, at this stage. I mean, MLB Pipeline had Guerrero the 7th ranked prospect in 2015. Although, I’m pretty sure that was ridiculous even at that time.

Edit: they also had Leody Taveras 22, Soto 25, and Tatis Jr. 30.

[emptytheclip]

There’s definitely gems in the IFA market.

I guess those that don’t play up the middle (C, SS, CF) or don’t show prodigious power at 16 yrs old don’t get as much love from the IFA rankings, even though a lot of them end up moving to corner positions in pro ball.

[-MetA4-]

Fangraphs released their July 2nd list, with Orelvis Martinez only coming in at 13th.

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018int&type=0&pos=all&team=all

[Cyrus]

Fangraphs released their July 2nd list, with Orelvis Martinez only coming in at 13th.

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018int&type=0&pos=all&team=all

Why is he ranked 13th, yet has the highest bonus besides mesa.

Yankee for example got the 4th,7th, 15th, and 34th all for about 3.5 mill. And we got one for the same price.

[vaff87]

Fangraphs released their July 2nd list, with Orelvis Martinez only coming in at 13th.

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018int&type=0&pos=all&team=all

Why is he ranked 13th, yet has the highest bonus besides mesa.

Yankee for example got the 4th,7th, 15th, and 34th all for about 3.5 mill. And we got one for the same price.

I don’t think these guys really know much about these prospects.

[-MetA4-]

Kiley McDaniel did see Martinez at the Showcase in the D.R. several months ago. As you would probably imagine, the variation in evaluating 16 year olds, especially from different countries, is going to be pretty wide. We've been really solid in recent years in evaluating these kids so I wouldn't put too much worry in how low they have him ranked.

[emptytheclip]

Fangraphs released their July 2nd list, with Orelvis Martinez only coming in at 13th.

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018int&type=0&pos=all&team=all

Why is he ranked 13th, yet has the highest bonus besides mesa.

Yankee for example got the 4th,7th, 15th, and 34th all for about 3.5 mill. And we got one for the same price.

Yeah when you put it that way it looks bad.
But another way to think about it is.. the Jays are planning to spend 3 mill+ on a single guy. They could offer this money to any of them and most of the available IFA prospects would take that deal. Sources say they chose Orelvis Martinez, which means he’s their top guy. And they haven’t been too shabby in their international scouting. They’re likely way higher on Martinez than anybody else, similar to the Groshans pick.

Miguel Hiraldo is looking like a stud, yet he didn’t get that much love from IFA rankings either, around rank #18 in 2017.
Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, and Fernando Tatis jr wasn’t touted as can’t miss guys, and look at them now.
IFA is so wild, they just have to trust their scouting department.

[dagger]

Jesse Sanchez rolling out the international signings. Pretty much had everyone nailed down before today, but now he can claim to know officially.

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[dagger]

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[vaff87]

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Schad

[Schad]

Could be a real player when he adds 100 lbs and a serious Jheri curl.

[vaff87]

Jays signed three more guys:

Gary David, c, Venezuela
Leo Callez, ss, Venezuela
Jorman Gonzalez, rhp, Venezuela

[Schad]

Gary David might be the least likely name for a Latin American IFA signing since the incomparable Henry Henry. Gary David isn't a baseball player; he's the guy from whom your company buys toner. He lives in a semi-detached home in an unfashionable suburb and his marriage is heading toward a mostly acrimony-free divorce. Gary David is sick of people asking if he is Larry David's cousin.

[vaff87]

Gary David might be the least likely name for a Latin American IFA signing since the incomparable Henry Henry. Gary David isn't a baseball player; he's the guy from whom your company buys toner. He lives in a semi-detached home in an unfashionable suburb and his marriage is heading toward a mostly acrimony-free divorce. Gary David is sick of people asking if he is Larry David's cousin.

Another guy:

Wilgenis Alvarado, lhp, Venezuela

Orioles haven’t signed a single guy.

[dagger]

Gary David might be the least likely name for a Latin American IFA signing since the incomparable Henry Henry. Gary David isn't a baseball player; he's the guy from whom your company buys toner. He lives in a semi-detached home in an unfashionable suburb and his marriage is heading toward a mostly acrimony-free divorce. Gary David is sick of people asking if he is Larry David's cousin.

Another guy:

Wilgenis Alvarado, lhp, Venezuela

Orioles haven’t signed a single guy.

The Orioles don't play in that space. Cheapness and stupidity. But they will trade allocation money.

[dagger]

Could be a real player when he adds 100 lbs and a serious Jheri curl.

Looks like a bus boy at Mar a Lago.You know, the kind of temporary foreign worker Trump says no one can hire except him.