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Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so

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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#141 » by phillipmike » Mon Sep 3, 2018 2:02 am

wazabifuzz wrote:https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/233470234-indians-merryweather-excels-in-triple-a-debut.amp.html

If it’s is this merryweather , it’s not a bad outing AAA he just had.


This is from 2017
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#142 » by Mehar » Mon Sep 3, 2018 2:26 am

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Some day in my life, some day, i hope to reach almost 50,000 posts like you. I will keep reaching for that rainbow my guy.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#143 » by Skin Blues » Mon Sep 3, 2018 3:35 am

-MetA4- wrote:This isn't a regular PTBNL, so I'm not sure why that term keeps getting thrown around maliciously. They didn't send nearly $3 million with Donaldson to get back a AAAA arm. Even if its the Merryweather kid, read the reports on his actual stuff. They know that system well and most of that Cleveland core you see today was built around supposed throwaway acquisitions who ended up actually being outstanding scouting decisions. Billy McKinney has been worth nearly the twice the wins of Happ since that trade went down.

Yeah the McKinney pickup has been pretty good. People seem to conflate high floor guys with low ceiling guys. As if you have one, you'll have the other. For some players, sure. But McKinney, being projected for 1 WAR per season for the next 6 years or whatever, is hardly a low ceiling guy simply because of that. He has good plate discipline, decent power, is a good base runner, and a good defender.

I just don't understand how a young player that's good at almost everything, is shat on as a lousy 1 WAR player with no upside that we shouldn't bother with - which is a sentiment I've seen expressed on here, in regards to McKinney especially. We saw the same stuff with Kevin Pillar when he came up. Supposed high floor/low ceiling guy with a decent bat and good D, yet then he goes and puts up like 10 WAR for us while costing $5M. I'd rather take a chance on a guy projected for 5 WAR being worth 10 WAR down the line, as opposed to a "low floor/high ceiling" guy projected for 0 WAR. All young players have variance, and I'd rather the variance occur with a higher starting point. There were 44 OF's worth 1+ WAR last year, so 1.5 per team. It's not as mundane an accomplishment as some might think.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#144 » by Centre Court » Mon Sep 3, 2018 4:47 pm

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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#145 » by Tanner » Mon Sep 3, 2018 6:15 pm

Merryweather (if it’s him) is better than a comp pick after the 2nd round. Really any of the near ready prospects in Cle’s 40 man is better than a comp pick. When you consider the Indians will be getting 2-3 weeks of Donaldson, it’s a pretty good trade. Obviously not better than a July trade if he was healthy but too late for that.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#146 » by polo007 » Tue Sep 4, 2018 2:11 am

Toronto Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins joined Tim and Sid to discuss trading Josh Donaldson and expectations for the future.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/shows/tim-and-sid-show/ross-atkins-blue-jays-aware-fans-unhappiness-season/
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#148 » by fmradioguy » Tue Sep 4, 2018 3:52 pm

Ross Atkins sounded a little too excited about this prospect for it to be Merryweather. Any chance it could be Brady Aiken? His stock has fallen dramatically. He hasn't pitched this year.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#149 » by Cyrus » Tue Sep 4, 2018 4:34 pm

So who is this guy we got we got Donaldson - Merryweather , and why is Atkins/Jays excited to be getting him? Especially when he made it sound there were multiple parties interested, and that we paid 2.5 mill of Donaldson 3.7 mill owed. So essentially we paid 2.5 mill for a player.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#150 » by BramptonYute » Tue Sep 4, 2018 4:52 pm

Its been reported that the player didnt clear waivers, but I dont know why someone would claim Merryweather.

But it is probably him.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#151 » by SharoneWright » Tue Sep 4, 2018 5:00 pm

Cyrus wrote:So who is this guy we got we got Donaldson - Merryweather , and why is Atkins/Jays excited to be getting him? Especially when he made it sound there were multiple parties interested, and that we paid 2.5 mill of Donaldson 3.7 mill owed. So essentially we paid 2.5 mill for a player.


We saved 1.2 for a player. I'm starting more and more to believe Josh truly isn't ready to play, and other teams know it.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#152 » by Tanner » Tue Sep 4, 2018 6:09 pm

Cyrus wrote:So who is this guy we got we got Donaldson - Merryweather , and why is Atkins/Jays excited to be getting him? Especially when he made it sound there were multiple parties interested, and that we paid 2.5 mill of Donaldson 3.7 mill owed. So essentially we paid 2.5 mill for a player.


No one was interested in Donaldson for $3.7m, otherwise he would have been claimed on waivers. The Jays saved a mil and got a player who is close to big league ready, which has more value than a comp pick after the 2nd round.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#153 » by Cyrus » Tue Sep 4, 2018 6:53 pm

Tanner wrote:
Cyrus wrote:So who is this guy we got we got Donaldson - Merryweather , and why is Atkins/Jays excited to be getting him? Especially when he made it sound there were multiple parties interested, and that we paid 2.5 mill of Donaldson 3.7 mill owed. So essentially we paid 2.5 mill for a player.


No one was interested in Donaldson for $3.7m, otherwise he would have been claimed on waivers. The Jays saved a mil and got a player who is close to big league ready, which has more value than a comp pick after the 2nd round.


Does it really have moure value, when the guy is 26 year old, and just had a tommy john?

The 2nd round comp pick may not been big league ready for 4-5 years but could be like "Adam Kloffenstein" who was our 3rd round pick this year.

My question is, besides this guy having tommy john, what makes him exciting, or "more valuable... is he a starter?
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#154 » by Schad » Tue Sep 4, 2018 7:47 pm

A pick in the Comp B range may be worth about $7m in surplus value; if Merryweather's a competent back-end starter or a good reliever, he's comfortably worth more than that.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#155 » by Tanner » Tue Sep 4, 2018 7:48 pm

Prospects typically have more value the closer they are to the big leagues. The comp pick after the 2nd round is going to fall around 75 or so. The added benefit to that would have been more money to spend in the draft but the pick itself is less valuable than a player in AAA that looks like he could be an everyday player/starter. If the ptbnl is Merryweather, then Atkins clearly likes him enough to take the risk that he recovers from tommy john in time to help the team in late 2019 or more likely 2020. Big guy, throws in the mid 90's, good performance in the minors (unsustainable HR and babip rate in AAA). Probably #4/5 starter potential, but that's still a useful piece.

But ultimately the choices were not ptbnl or comp pick, it was ptbnl or JD in 2019. I don't think there was any way JD would have declined the QO.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#156 » by Skin Blues » Tue Sep 4, 2018 8:26 pm

Schad wrote:A pick in the Comp B range may be worth about $7m in surplus value; if Merryweather's a competent back-end starter or a good reliever, he's comfortably worth more than that.

The Padres also paid $144M for Eric Hosmer this past offseason, so we probably shouldn't be using anecdotes regarding their current FO to assign value to general assets!! Later in the article you linked, they mention two separate swaps that would indicate a comp pick is worth about $2.8-$3.0M, which makes a lot more sense.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#157 » by Schad » Tue Sep 4, 2018 8:38 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
Schad wrote:A pick in the Comp B range may be worth about $7m in surplus value; if Merryweather's a competent back-end starter or a good reliever, he's comfortably worth more than that.

The Padres also paid $144M for Eric Hosmer this past offseason, so we probably shouldn't be using anecdotes regarding their current FO to assign value to general assets!! Later in the article you linked, they mention two separate swaps that would indicate a comp pick is worth about $2.8-$3.0M, which makes a lot more sense.


They link to multiple studies that suggest that the surplus value is in that range. It'd be more surprising if a pick in that range was only worth $2.8-3m; it really isn't difficult to generate a few mil in surplus value. Hence why I suggest that Merryweather would clear even if he fails as a starter and becomes a good 7th/8th inning guy.
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#158 » by Skin Blues » Tue Sep 4, 2018 9:08 pm

Schad wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
Schad wrote:A pick in the Comp B range may be worth about $7m in surplus value; if Merryweather's a competent back-end starter or a good reliever, he's comfortably worth more than that.

The Padres also paid $144M for Eric Hosmer this past offseason, so we probably shouldn't be using anecdotes regarding their current FO to assign value to general assets!! Later in the article you linked, they mention two separate swaps that would indicate a comp pick is worth about $2.8-$3.0M, which makes a lot more sense.


They link to multiple studies that suggest that the surplus value is in that range. It'd be more surprising if a pick in that range was only worth $2.8-3m; it really isn't difficult to generate a few mil in surplus value. Hence why I suggest that Merryweather would clear even if he fails as a starter and becomes a good 7th/8th inning guy.

The first study is from a 2015 trade in which the pick in question was after the first round, not after the second round. And the second study concludes that a pick in the 26-30 range would be worth around $8.1M. That's before the first comp round, let alone the second comp round. Extrapolate it out and it comes in at around the $3M mark.

A simple way to look at this is: if second round comp picks were worth $7M, why was nobody willing to give even half of that amount for the two that the Orioles traded away in 2015 and 2016?
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#159 » by Schad » Tue Sep 4, 2018 9:27 pm

Skin Blues wrote:The first study is from a 2015 trade in which the pick in question was after the first round, not after the second round. And the second study concludes that a pick in the 26-30 range would be worth around $8.1M. That's before the first comp round, let alone the second comp round. Extrapolate it out and it comes in at around the $3M mark.


The THT extends to the 60th pick, and the curve certainly doesn't suggest that it'd be $3m by pick 75.

A simple way to look at this is: if second round comp picks were worth $7M, why was nobody willing to give even half of that amount for the two that the Orioles traded away in 2015 and 2016?


Because the Orioles are cheap, stupid and have never understood the value of player development?
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Re: Josh Donaldson traded to [the Indians] for something because Passan says so 

Post#160 » by phillipmike » Tue Sep 4, 2018 9:32 pm

Donaldson wasnt rejecting 18M on a 1 year deal after playing 36 games to date - after his rehab stint he may only play 50-55 games if he is healthy. With his bad health and not so good production he wasnt saying no to 18M so its a moot point to discuss the compensation pick at this point.

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