Law: Blue Jays Don't Have Top Five Farm System in MLB

[jalenrose#5]

Atkins and Shapiro have been boasting about their improved farm system for awhile now, saying its one of the tops in the game, and even the likes of Baseball America have ranked the Jays in the top 5 of baseball when it comes to their farm system.

Keith Law, MLB insider for ESPN thinks otherwise, calls the thought of the Jays having a top farm system in baseball "laughable"

https://www.tsn.ca/law-on-jays-it-s-not-a-top-10-system-1.1168004

“Look, everybody thinks they have a good farm system, but it is disturbing when you exaggerate to that extent. The Blue Jays have a top-heavy system. They have arguably three prospects who are among the elite in the game and then below that it gets very thin very quickly.

“Farm systems that look like this are never in my top 10,” Law said. “The top 10 systems in baseball, objectively, should have both star-calibre prospects and quite a bit of depth of future average-or-better major leaguers. They don’t have the latter.”

I tend to disagree with Law on this one..the Jays don't have the big names of other teams like the Braves, White Sox, Rays, or Padres, but I do believe they have the quality depth any organization wants. I wouldn't put them ahead of those teams, but I'd put them in the mix between 5-10.

Top 10 Prospects imo

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Bo Bichette
Danny Jansen
Nate Pearson
Jordan Groshans
Eric Pardinho
Anthony Alford
Sean Reid-Foley
Kevin Smith
Cavan Biggio

outside looking in: Rowdy Tellez, Hector Perez, Adam Kloffenstein, TJ Zeuch, Orelvis Martinez, David Paulino, Jonathan Davis, and Miguel Hiraldo.

Graduated Prospects: Ryan Borucki, Lourdes Gurriel, Thomas Pannone, Billy McKinney, Dwight Smith Jr, Dalton Pompey, and Dick Urena.


Thoughts?

[Duffman100]

Am I missing something on Alford? I mean... I'll admit I don't know much. But this feels like another Gose / Pompey situation. We have an athletic outfielder that is touted to be good and just ends up being nothing.

Looking at his minor league stats, they're pretty underwhelming.

[Skin Blues]

Yep, athletic OF's that can't hit seem to get over-rated all the time.

Also, it seems that Keith Law LOVES to troll Jays fans. I know the whole "everybody thinks every baseball analyst hates their team", but this is the only guy I've ever got that vibe from, and it's been that way for years. Since he left, basically.

[Mehar]

MLB Pipeline had the Jays the 5th Best Farm System last month. Link is here- https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-farm-system-ranked-fifth-best-majors-mlb-pipeline/

Who named Keith Law as the expert in Farm Systems? I trust MLB Pipeline instead of this loudmouth.

[BigLeagueChew]

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/phillips-the-lowdown-on-the-jays-farm-system~1479589

[phillipmike]

Cant sell subscriptions or get clicks if you dont give people a reason to. Law is just drawing attention to himself to make money - he doesnt actually believe this.

[Trilogy]

To be fair, Alford before this season/hand injury hit pretty well for a guy with all the other tools he had. He's absolutely had a wretched 2018 though. Biggest disappointment on the prospect front this year but the optimism before that was warranted. Hopefully it's more injury recovery related and he can bounce back. The Jays have a plethora of corner OF guys at the upper minors but it's arguable if any of them can really play CF at a decent level.

[SharoneWright]

I'd prefer a few more upper tier pitchers before confidently saying we're top 5.

[So_Fresh]

I don't remember seeing or hearing Shatkins boasting how the Jays are in the "top 5" of baseball when it comes to their farm system. Is it better then what it was when they took over. I would have to say yes we are. More like top 10 in baseball which is perfectly fine at this point in time.

[Schad]

I'd prefer a few more upper tier pitchers before confidently saying we're top 5.

I guess that my way of thinking about it is this: while we don't have a deep pool of above-average prospects, the top end is strong enough to merit that positioning. Take the Twins, ranked 6th by MLB Pipeline (immediately behind us); would you trade Vlad, Bichette and Jansen for the top six or seven in their organization? I doubt that I would.

[vaff87]

I could be wrong, but I’ve always found Keith Law to be pretty smug.

[sule]

To be fair, Alford before this season/hand injury hit pretty well for a guy with all the other tools he had. He's absolutely had a wretched 2018 though. Biggest disappointment on the prospect front this year but the optimism before that was warranted. Hopefully it's more injury recovery related and he can bounce back. The Jays have a plethora of corner OF guys at the upper minors but it's arguable if any of them can really play CF at a decent level.

This is why i'm hesitant to get excited about the guys in lower A-ball. There's a high probability a lot of them don't make it to the majors or don't end up being the players the team is selling us on. It's just fact that a solid chunk of prospects flame out, get injured, or aren't able to transfer their skills into dominance in AA/AAA or the majors.

And sometimes guys come out of nowhere.

It's why, IMO, teams like the Yankees and BoSox and Cards keep their teams competitive at all times. So when a prospect is dominating in AA/AAA, they can just insert them into the lineup and keep on chugging.

The Astros/Cubs model is great for selling hope, but teams going that route on the cheap can just as easily end up like the Rays or the Orioles, where young guys keep coming up, but the team can't get over that hump b/c of spending or inability to bring up enough guys at the same time with high-potential.

It's tricky. And it's why the Indians got to another level when they started acquiring guys through trade and FA to fill in the gaps on their team.

It's especially important in the AL East, where we have compete with two perpetual 100-game winning teams in the BoSox and Yankees. What works in other divisions won't necessarily cut it in the AL East.

[bluerap23]

Am I missing something on Alford? I mean... I'll admit I don't know much. But this feels like another Gose / Pompey situation. We have an athletic outfielder that is touted to be good and just ends up being nothing.

Looking at his minor league stats, they're pretty underwhelming.

Alford had a very solid 2017, hence the ranking. The bigger issue is health. I don't believe he will "make it" because he seems to get injured every year.

[VanWest82]

I would argue the bigger issue with Alford is he has no idea what pitch is coming or when. He's not swinging. He's hoping and praying. He's had a K% of around 30% @ all levels of the minors except for 2017 in AA. If he gets a real shot he'll probably have a 30% K rate in the big leagues as well. I don't get the hype with that guy. Hope I'm wrong though. We could use some quality OFs.

RE Law I agree with him. We seem top heavy. But is his third guy Jansen or Pearson? I like both. We have four studs potentially.

[dagger]

I'd prefer a few more upper tier pitchers before confidently saying we're top 5.

I guess that my way of thinking about it is this: while we don't have a deep pool of above-average prospects, the top end is strong enough to merit that positioning. Take the Twins, ranked 6th by MLB Pipeline (immediately behind us); would you trade Vlad, Bichette and Jansen for the top six or seven in their organization? I doubt that I would.

The depth issue is so subjective. If you look at farm systems for a sweet spot, you'd have to say that New Hampshire is that for the Jays, a team that should have gone south when Reid Foley and Vlad moved on, but which more than enough depth to compensate. Adding guys like Wall and Espinal through trades certainly helped, but what intrigues me about the Fisher Cats is that certainly players raised their games in the second half of the season, benefitting from added responsibility even after promotions thinned out the lineup just a bit.

[Schad]

Most of that depth consists of guys who don't project to be good major leaguers, however. We're really talking about a deeper pool of higher-end prospects; New Hampshire meanwhile has Bichette, has Biggio (who is a somewhat polarizing prospect), and no one else that really stands out as a likely average-or-better major leaguer anywhere but in relief.

[Brinbe]

I'd say he's right. Top-heavy and we have to hope that the few big prospects hit, which isn't a given.

[The_Hater]

I don't remember seeing or hearing Shatkins boasting how the Jays are in the "top 5" of baseball when it comes to their farm system. Is it better then what it was when they took over. I would have to say yes we are. More like top 10 in baseball which is perfectly fine at this point in time.

Ya, it was fairly gutted when Shapiro took over, AA had spent the better part of 12 months trading top prospects for big contracts and short term solutions. Wherever it might be at right now at least it’s trending the right direction, and it would have been even stronger via trades had ownership allowed management to rebuild last off season.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

I don't remember seeing or hearing Shatkins boasting how the Jays are in the "top 5" of baseball when it comes to their farm system. Is it better then what it was when they took over. I would have to say yes we are. More like top 10 in baseball which is perfectly fine at this point in time.

Ya, it was fairly gutted when Shapiro took over, AA had spent the better part of 12 months trading top prospects for big contracts and short term solutions. Wherever it might be at right now at least it’s trending the right direction, and it would have been even stronger via trades had ownership allowed management to rebuild last off season.

even if the players didn't pan out from the players AA traded out, they were still highly regarded. so ya, it was gutted. still got some nice prospects, just like any farm team out there, nothing is guaranteed until they succeed in the majors

[The_Hater]

I don't remember seeing or hearing Shatkins boasting how the Jays are in the "top 5" of baseball when it comes to their farm system. Is it better then what it was when they took over. I would have to say yes we are. More like top 10 in baseball which is perfectly fine at this point in time.

Ya, it was fairly gutted when Shapiro took over, AA had spent the better part of 12 months trading top prospects for big contracts and short term solutions. Wherever it might be at right now at least it’s trending the right direction, and it would have been even stronger via trades had ownership allowed management to rebuild last off season.

even if the players didn't pan out from the players AA traded out, they were still highly regarded. so ya, it was gutted. still got some nice prospects, just like any farm team out there, nothing is guaranteed until they succeed in the majors

The Dickey trade is the one that really hurt. And I think most us knew at the time that we gave up far too much.