Law: Blue Jays Don't Have Top Five Farm System in MLB

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Ya, it was fairly gutted when Shapiro took over, AA had spent the better part of 12 months trading top prospects for big contracts and short term solutions. Wherever it might be at right now at least it’s trending the right direction, and it would have been even stronger via trades had ownership allowed management to rebuild last off season.

even if the players didn't pan out from the players AA traded out, they were still highly regarded. so ya, it was gutted. still got some nice prospects, just like any farm team out there, nothing is guaranteed until they succeed in the majors

The Dickey trade is the one that really hurt. And I think most us knew at the time that we gave up far too much.

yup. if we could only take back one trade. that would have been the one. I was just flabbergasted by the move.

[Schad]

I don't remember seeing or hearing Shatkins boasting how the Jays are in the "top 5" of baseball when it comes to their farm system. Is it better then what it was when they took over. I would have to say yes we are. More like top 10 in baseball which is perfectly fine at this point in time.

Ya, it was fairly gutted when Shapiro took over, AA had spent the better part of 12 months trading top prospects for big contracts and short term solutions. Wherever it might be at right now at least it’s trending the right direction, and it would have been even stronger via trades had ownership allowed management to rebuild last off season.

Granted, some of the prospects are holdovers from AA's time, but a great many of them have fallen by the wayside. This is a quick scan, so I might've missed one, but I count only 5 of our top 20 on MLB Pipeline (Vlad, Jansen, Alford, SRF and Zeuch) who pre-date the current regime. It's part of the reason that, despite my grave reservations about our direction over the past two years, I'm not that critical of Shapiro overall...he was left with one elite and a couple above-average prospects (once Jansen was able to see again), and has improved it considerably.

That's still not the same as saying that he has fixed it yet, given just how much production we will need from the farm as our roster turns over, but the fact that our prospect roster lacks a deep pool of above-average talent owes to having built most of it in less than two years.

[bluerap23]

It is a pretty significant 180 since Shapiro came with the farm system. I believe they were ranked 22 when he came over. There was an interesting caller on the fan that asked baseball central hosts "what is the best move Shapiro has made since his arrival"? They were literally speechless for a full minute. Eventually they settled on Happ signing and Teoscar acquisition as #2. It is comical how little they've done for the big league team, but you have to credit them for developing the farm while having their hands tied by ownership with respect to trading off JD, etc.


The interesting thing that I have noted is that the current regime focuses on drafting high value position prospects (SS, etc.), while AA was definitely more focused on pitching.

I wonder if there are some analytics on success rate comparison between pitching and position. If you look at all those great pitching prospects AA drafted, hardly any of them have panned out.

Perhaps this admin thinks they can buy the pitching in free agency once the offence is developed.

[JaysRule15]

I could be wrong, but I’ve always found Keith Law to be pretty smug.

Buster Olney is the same way towards the Jays. He's alluded multiple times to the idea that free agents don't want to play for the Jays because of the income tax.

[SharoneWright]

Ya, it was fairly gutted when Shapiro took over, AA had spent the better part of 12 months trading top prospects for big contracts and short term solutions. Wherever it might be at right now at least it’s trending the right direction, and it would have been even stronger via trades had ownership allowed management to rebuild last off season.

even if the players didn't pan out from the players AA traded out, they were still highly regarded. so ya, it was gutted. still got some nice prospects, just like any farm team out there, nothing is guaranteed until they succeed in the majors

The Dickey trade is the one that really hurt. And I think most us knew at the time that we gave up far too much.

Sure. But not only did we lose prospects, we lost years of salary control, and years of the ability to add frontline pieces. We took on Tulo's dollars. And signed Martin for much too much and for much too long. We really hamstrung ourselves both in terms of having to play declining/aging talent, but also in terms of being able to execute any other creative moves involving salary with our starting lineup. We can nibble away by trading 1-year veteran free agents at the deadline to acquire a top 26 pipeline sort of a reliever (thus helping our minor league rankings),, but nobody in the league wants Tulo/Martin/(Morales), so we are left without the financial resources to upgrade 2nd base, 3rd base, our entire outfield, and our entire pitching staff. Just another year (or 2) of waiting I suppose, but I had already resigned myself to this year being a wasted year stuck in neutral before it even began. So it's at least 2 years of dead air... Our vets are anchors until they expire. And there's basically nothing Shatkins can do.

[fmradioguy]

Buster Olney is the same way towards the Jays. He's alluded multiple times to the idea that free agents don't want to play for the Jays because of the income tax.

The agents all educate their clients about this. Worst case, if everything else is equal, the Jays may have to fork over an extra $500K a year for a guy making $10 million per to balance it out. They're not that far off from Cali or NY.

Taxes are a minor issue. It's the fact that it's a foreign country in general that is the big detraction.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

even if the players didn't pan out from the players AA traded out, they were still highly regarded. so ya, it was gutted. still got some nice prospects, just like any farm team out there, nothing is guaranteed until they succeed in the majors

The Dickey trade is the one that really hurt. And I think most us knew at the time that we gave up far too much.

Sure. But not only did we lose prospects, we lost years of salary control, and years of the ability to add frontline pieces. We took on Tulo's dollars. And signed Martin for much too much and for much too long. We really hamstrung ourselves both in terms of having to play declining/aging talent, but also in terms of being able to execute any other creative moves involving salary with our starting lineup. We can nibble away by trading 1-year veteran free agents at the deadline to acquire a top 26 pipeline sort of a reliever (thus helping our minor league rankings),, but nobody in the league wants Tulo/Martin/(Morales), so we are left without the financial resources to upgrade 2nd base, 3rd base, our entire outfield, and our entire pitching staff. Just another year (or 2) of waiting I suppose, but I had already resigned myself to this year being a wasted year stuck in neutral before it even began. So it's at least 2 years of dead air... Our vets are anchors until they expire. And there's basically nothing Shatkins can do.

thats how i feel about the trades now. for sure. but you got some really stubborn Jays fans thinking AA was in the right and will always be a God to them, for whatever reason. Compounded with the "past is 20/20" vision crew saying how Shatkins screwed up the assets, which they probably did but forgot there was also mismanagement of assets during AA's run.

I don't know. Shatkins being blamed for everything is everything that is wrong with some of the fan base nowadays.

[wamco]

The biggest problem we have had in failing to sign big time free agents is failing to offer market value contracts to big time free agents

[I_Like_Dirt]

It is a pretty significant 180 since Shapiro came with the farm system. I believe they were ranked 22 when he came over. There was an interesting caller on the fan that asked baseball central hosts "what is the best move Shapiro has made since his arrival"? They were literally speechless for a full minute. Eventually they settled on Happ signing and Teoscar acquisition as #2. It is comical how little they've done for the big league team, but you have to credit them for developing the farm while having their hands tied by ownership with respect to trading off JD, etc.


The interesting thing that I have noted is that the current regime focuses on drafting high value position prospects (SS, etc.), while AA was definitely more focused on pitching.

I wonder if there are some analytics on success rate comparison between pitching and position. If you look at all those great pitching prospects AA drafted, hardly any of them have panned out.

Perhaps this admin thinks they can buy the pitching in free agency once the offence is developed.

Position prospects are definitely more valuable than pitching prospects, all things being equal. The problem with pitching is that it's so ridiculously hard and can appear and disappear in the blink of an eye for totally unexpected reasons, if any reasons at all. Sanchez went from intriguing reliever to future Cy Young winner to chump pretty darn fast.

The thing people fail to see with moves when they start talking about the big club vs the farm is that it isn't actually one or the other - they're interconnected. A move to support the farm IS a move to support the big club, we just don't know how it's going to support the big club just yet, if it will at all. Heck, it's hard enough to tell if trading for/signing vets are going to actually support the big club or not. AA dumped a TON of prospect collateral for veterans over the years. The Dickey trade is really the one that burns - AA was actually pretty poor at building a farm overall but was also willing to trade his draftees quickly. On the whole, it was worth it, but it came with a cost that needed to be paid in the future, and we're seeing the costs now.

The best move Atkins has made for the Jays is not to make too many short-sighted moves. Right now I think it might be drafting and keeping Bo Bichette, but there are loads of possibilities out there. The mindset of constantly trying to patch things over at the cost of the future is very similar to the idea that we shouldn't suffer economically now to try to stop human caused climate change. It's kicking the can down the road that's going to be paid in one way or the other in the future. Oh, but we can figure that out later? Sure! At least in baseball there will always be future draft picks to mortgage. It's an approach that doesn't actually work all that well, though. Even the big teams that spend truckloads of money tend not to operate that way.

[Schad]

All things equal, position prospects are more valuable than pitching prospects, undoubtedly. The problem, as ILD says, is that you still need pitchers, and major league pitchers break, too. Buying pitching is free agency or trade is expensive, and comes with no more guarantees...if anything, that's more of a reason to build up your depth of pitching prospects, because at least then they're cheap failures.

Take a look at the 2017-18 free agent starter class. Here are the ones that signed for an AAV of $10m or more (basically, what it costs to get an established starter of some variety):

Arrieta (3/$75m): okay but not great, his velocity is still down and he isn't missing bats. Mid-rotation starter now, and might be worse than that for the remainder of his deal.

Chatwood (3/$38m): sub-replacement level this season thanks to an all-time-awful walk rate. Probably a reliever from now on.

Cobb (4/$57m): has improved a bit, but he's still pitching like a 5th starter at best, and his contract is a boat anchor.

Darvish (6/$126m): had eight fairly bad starts, is out for the remainder of the year.

Garcia (1/$10m): awful, released midway through the year.

Sabathia (1/$10m): the pick of the lot, has been quite handy.


Granted, this was a particularly bad crop of free agents, but buying pitching is just as hard as developing it.

[Hoopstarr]

Everyone is missing the point. It's doesn't matter whether we're top 5 or top 10. We need to be better than the Red Sox and/or Yankees, which means being a top 5 team in baseball in any given year, just to make the playoffs. To field a team that good, a top 5 system isn't just some nice building block, it's a requirement. If anything, having the top system is the requirement because the other two also spend a ton. We have to churn out home grown stars to build on or we can forget about the playoffs unless Boston or New York happen to have an off year.

[whysoserious]

As more of a casual fan who doesn't follow the Jays what's the pitching prospects looking like for the Jays?

I know it's a long ways a way, but say the top guys like Bichette and Vlad are here carrying the offense and playing in the field, who do we expect to be our top starting pitchers at that time? Are they in the organization already or not?

[manjusaka]

As more of a casual fan who doesn't follow the Jays what's the pitching prospects looking like for the Jays?

I know it's a long ways a way, but say the top guys like Bichette and Vlad are here carrying the offense and playing in the field, who do we expect to be our top starting pitchers at that time? Are they in the organization already or not?

Starting pitchers are not the strength in our system.

Our upper minor had some inning eater or back-end starter type. Two of them already been call-up, Borucki and SRF, although I still think SRF better suited in bullpen. Maybe we can see a Sep. call-up for T.J. Zuech next year. Not sure what is the plan for David Paulino and Hector Perez.

It is unfortunate that Nate Pearson lost the year for development, but if everything clicked for him, he may fast track. Adam Kloffenstein and Eric Pardinho are the other two in the lower minor to keep monitoring.

There are some other guys, but I would stop here.

[Al_Oliver]

As more of a casual fan who doesn't follow the Jays what's the pitching prospects looking like for the Jays?

I know it's a long ways a way, but say the top guys like Bichette and Vlad are here carrying the offense and playing in the field, who do we expect to be our top starting pitchers at that time? Are they in the organization already or not?

Starting pitchers are not the strength in our system.

Our upper minor had some inning eater or back-end starter type. Two of them already been call-up, Borucki and SRF, although I still think SRF better suited in bullpen. Maybe we can see a Sep. call-up for T.J. Zuech next year. Not sure what is the plan for David Paulino and Hector Perez.

It is unfortunate that Nate Pearson lost the year for development, but if everything clicked for him, he may fast track. Adam Kloffenstein and Eric Pardinho are the other two in the lower minor to keep monitoring.

There are some other guys, but I would stop here.

Paulino has already pitched twice for the Jays in relief... 1.2 IP, 3ks, 2 hits and a BB

[Schad]

Everyone is missing the point. It's doesn't matter whether we're top 5 or top 10. We need to be better than the Red Sox and/or Yankees, which means being a top 5 team in baseball in any given year, just to make the playoffs. To field a team that good, a top 5 system isn't just some nice building block, it's a requirement. If anything, having the top system is the requirement because the other two also spend a ton. We have to churn out home grown stars to build on or we can forget about the playoffs unless Boston or New York happen to have an off year.

Yeah; it isn't enough to have a top 10 farm system now. We need to have a top 10 farm system now, and we need to have a top 10 farm system after Vlad/Bichette graduate, because our needs won't end there. Not only do the Yankees/Red Sox spend, but they've churned out their own golden generations of young players...the only reason there might be a window for us in three years or thereabouts is that the Red Sox system is rather much trash at the moment, which will make it hard for them to keep the team together (even with their budget) as their salaries escalate.

[polo007]

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/09/13/klawchat-9-13-18/

PhillyJake: Vlad Guerrero, Jr. as your minor league player of the year? Why, he didn’t even warrant a September call up! <>

Keith Law: Exactly. Meanwhile the Blue Jays’ VP is subtweeting me and making up alternative facts about other sites’ rankings to distract everyone from the manipulation of Vlad’s service time. Baseball fever, baby!

[JaysRule15]

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/09/13/klawchat-9-13-18/

PhillyJake: Vlad Guerrero, Jr. as your minor league player of the year? Why, he didn’t even warrant a September call up! <>

Keith Law: Exactly. Meanwhile the Blue Jays’ VP is subtweeting me and making up alternative facts about other sites’ rankings to distract everyone from the manipulation of Vlad’s service time. Baseball fever, baby!

What bugs me is that every single team does this service time thing, even rich, big market teams. Why are we being so vilified for doing it?

[vaff87]

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/09/13/klawchat-9-13-18/

PhillyJake: Vlad Guerrero, Jr. as your minor league player of the year? Why, he didn’t even warrant a September call up! <>

Keith Law: Exactly. Meanwhile the Blue Jays’ VP is subtweeting me and making up alternative facts about other sites’ rankings to distract everyone from the manipulation of Vlad’s service time. Baseball fever, baby!

What bugs me is that every single team does this service time thing, even rich, big market teams. Why are we being so vilified for doing it?

I’m half-expecting some rule this off-season banning it, so the Jays have to start Guerrero next year in the majors.

[Skin Blues]

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/09/13/klawchat-9-13-18/

PhillyJake: Vlad Guerrero, Jr. as your minor league player of the year? Why, he didn’t even warrant a September call up! <>

Keith Law: Exactly. Meanwhile the Blue Jays’ VP is subtweeting me and making up alternative facts about other sites’ rankings to distract everyone from the manipulation of Vlad’s service time. Baseball fever, baby!

What bugs me is that every single team does this service time thing, even rich, big market teams. Why are we being so vilified for doing it?

Every team that does it gets vilified. White Sox with Eloy this year, and even the Twins with Buxton this September. If they played in any half-decent sized market then their keeping Buxton down would have been bigger news. Their front office still took a lot of flack from local - and some national - media, though.

[bluerap23]

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/09/13/klawchat-9-13-18/

What bugs me is that every single team does this service time thing, even rich, big market teams. Why are we being so vilified for doing it?

Every team that does it gets vilified. White Sox with Eloy this year, and even the Twins with Buxton this September. If they played in any half-decent sized market then their keeping Buxton down would have been bigger news. Their front office still took a lot of flack from local - and some national - media, though.

Vlad is only 19.