2018-19 Offseason Thread

[polo007]

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The roster by the end of 2019/start of 2020 will be very different. I don’t know how you can say this is a “two years away from being two years away” situation. This team without any major Fa adds is probably a .500 team by 2020. With some additions (and luck) they could be better than that.

You're seriously overestimating how much of a difference a couple elite prospects and some average ones will make. Our farm system is very good; no farm system is going to suddenly spit out a .500 team within two seasons. Being .500 takes somewhere in the range of 35 fWAR, more in the AL East. No matter how good Vlad and Bo are, they plus a handful on non-major FAs aren't going to be the difference between where we are now and that, especially as we'll be losing relatively productive players along the way.

Getting to .500 is actually pretty tough. It's not just something that happens because you have a couple really good players, especially with our competition. Surely after two seasons where we've been toooooootally sure we were at least a .500 team only to finish 10 and 16 games below would hammer that home (and in both years, our expected record was actually quite a bit worse).

Last year the team’s best sp, rp, and position player were basically non factors all season. Those 3 combined for something like 11 wins the year before. No way the jays had a shot without those three in particular.

Sure it’s not easy to be a .500 team in the AL East, and with prospects a lot of outcomes can happen (good and bad). If the jays can’t develop well then they’ll have trouble. But there is a lot of good young talent coming up. We will presumably get more when we trade a bunch of guys. Young talent is at a premium now, that’s why no teams are trading it for rentals or players in their 30’s anymore. The Jays figure to have a lineup full of team and a player development system that actually works to get the best out of them. Some will fail obviously but the quantity is there, and quality is starting to present itself as well.

Can’t anticipate injuries, that’s obviously a game changer, but the talent is there.

[Schad]

But that's a bunch of vague "we'll be getting better so we'll naturally be quite good" stuff. Yeah, we'll have a bunch more young talent. That doesn't mean that we'll have instant-overnight-contender talent. Houston had arguably the best collection of young players that the league has seen in decades; it took five years from the point where they blew it up to their first playoff appearance, and seven before they were real contenders.

Including Jansen, we only have three blue chip prospects and basically nothing on the major league roster. Even with two of those being elite, that's a long way from the core of a .500+ team in two years or less. What we have is the first step toward a good team, not a fait accompli of a good team.

[SharoneWright]

But there is a lot of good young talent coming up. We will presumably get more when we trade a bunch of guys. Young talent is at a premium now, that’s why no teams are trading it for rentals or players in their 30’s anymore.

??

The Jays are about to get "more young talent" when we "trade a bunch of guys"? Which bunch??? Martin? Smoak? Pillar? Sanchez?

These aren't premium players, and if (as you say) "young talent" is at a "premium", why would any other team surrender it for our middling crap. Especially any prospects that are "on the cusp". You even acknowledged that the return for "30+ yo rentals" is poor. All the Jays have of value in the organization are a few top-end prospects that we are keeping. We have nothing to trade on the 40-man roster that would boost our ceiling this year or next. The only hope is that we can ditch a few of our vets (including guys like Shoemaker, Richard, etc., at the trade deadline) for prospects with a 2021+ETA and that a few of our own "next wave" prospects also make breakthroughs. Our focus should really be minor league development, minor league scouting, and IFA signings these next 2-3 years.

[Tanner]

But that's a bunch of vague "we'll be getting better so we'll naturally be quite good" stuff. Yeah, we'll have a bunch more young talent. That doesn't mean that we'll have instant-overnight-contender talent. Houston had arguably the best collection of young players that the league has seen in decades; it took five years from the point where they blew it up to their first playoff appearance, and seven before they were real contenders.

Including Jansen, we only have three blue chip prospects and basically nothing on the major league roster. Even with two of those being elite, that's a long way from the core of a .500+ team in two years or less. What we have is the first step toward a good team, not a fait accompli of a good team.

Your Houston example is off. They became good once they started incorporating good young players into their lineup. They won the WC in 2015 which happened to be Correa’s debut season, Springer’s first full season, McCullers rookie season, etc. The following year Bregman came up, Devinski came up, etc. Then the year they won it all they signed a bunch of vets (Reddick, Beltran, Gurriel) and they went from an 85-ish win team to a team that exploded. Yes, having Altuve there during the bad years gave them a star to build around but he is just one guy. They needed more talent to come up at the same time.

Did you think the Yankees would be so good so soon? I mean you can’t expect a team that had 8 of 9 position players over the age of 30 in 2015 get within a game of the World Series two years later behind a bunch of 0-3 year players and declining vets, right?

Steamer is projecting Vlad to be one of the better hitters in baseball next season. Jansen and Gurriel both have 2+ win projections. It’s not like we are running out Yoan Moncada or Lewis Brinson types who are more raw with a higher variance of outcomes. It’s a good mix of floor and ceiling, even for the talent that’s not yet reached.

Five years is a long time. If that’s what you think the Jays should be playing for, then might as well trade Vlad because that’s like 80% of his service time wasted trying to suck ass long enough to build something that good player development, trading, free agency, etc, can build sooner.

[Tanner]

But there is a lot of good young talent coming up. We will presumably get more when we trade a bunch of guys. Young talent is at a premium now, that’s why no teams are trading it for rentals or players in their 30’s anymore.

??

The Jays are about to get "more young talent" when we "trade a bunch of guys"? Which bunch??? Martin? Smoak? Pillar? Sanchez?

Yes those are exactly the guys I meant. Not Stroman or Giles or a healthy/effective Sanchez (if that exists anymore). I specifically meant the guys who are older, more expensive, and less valuable.

and if (as you say) "young talent" is at a "premium", why would any other team surrender it for our middling crap. Especially any prospects that are "on the cusp".

Because you can still get good young players in trades, just not elite ones. I’m not deluded enough to think we were going to get top 50 prospects for JD and Happ if we traded them sooner like people here did (for Osuna possibly), and I’m not expecting that for Stroman or Giles either (or Sanchez if he bounces back). I do expect players who can bring value/upside though. These are players in their mid/late 20’s that the Jays are likely to move by this winter or July with an additional year of control. Teams are not trading pre breakout Juan Soto types nowadays. The Mets have an agent posing as a GM so maybe they would but it’s not common. If they did then we or the Mariners would have gotten one of the Yankees lower minors Sp’s for Happ and Paxson rather than players closer to the bigs who occupy 40 man spots (the Yankees don’t view Sheffield as highly as he’s ranked from what I heard, they sold high in their minds).

Our focus should really be minor league development, minor league scouting, and IFA signings these next 2-3 years.

Agree, and it will be, but you realize the draft budget and international budget is not tied to the big league payroll, right? In other words you can try to win and it won’t impact any of the other things. I mean, losing a lot will give you a higher draft pool but that’s because you pick higher.

[Schad]

Your Houston example is off. They became good once they started incorporating good young players into their lineup. They won the WC in 2015 which happened to be Correa’s debut season, Springer’s first full season, McCullers rookie season, etc. The following year Bregman came up, Devinski came up, etc. Then the year they won it all they signed a bunch of vets (Reddick, Beltran, Gurriel) and they went from an 85-ish win team to a team that exploded. Yes, having Altuve there during the bad years gave them a star to build around but he is just one guy. They needed more talent to come up at the same time.

Exactly my point. Several of their top prospects had already graduated...it did not make them a good team overnight. It wasn't until the fruits of a half-decade of efforts were borne that they actually came good. You cannot build a baseball team around one or two top prospects alone. Altuve, Correa, Springer, McCullers, Bregman and the rest represent a long period of accumulation, something we do not have. We will need to wait for a second wave; that second wave is not going to happen in 2020.

Did you think the Yankees would be so good so soon? I mean you can’t expect a team that had 8 of 9 position players over the age of 30 in 2015 get within a game of the World Series two years later behind a bunch of 0-3 year players and declining vets, right?

Their youth absolutely came good a year or two before most expected. However, their declining vets -- while grossly overpaid -- were miles better than anything we will have after 2020, which is to say nothing at all. And unlike the Yankees, we are not going to spend $200m on old dudes who will produce close to 25 WAR. Accumulating that many league-average starters is genuinely difficult (and harder when you aren't spending superstar money to get league-average production).

Steamer is projecting Vlad to be one of the better hitters in baseball next season. Jansen and Gurriel both have 2+ win projections. It’s not like we are running out Yoan Moncada or Lewis Brinson types who are more raw with a higher variance of outcomes. It’s a good mix of floor and ceiling, even for the talent that’s not yet reached.

A 2 fWAR projection is better known as 'par' if the goal is .500. That's league average. I quite like Jansen as a prospect, but the fact that he's 0.2 wins above par is not going to cause us to surge to relevance.

Five years is a long time. If that’s what you think the Jays should be playing for, then might as well trade Vlad because that’s like 80% of his service time wasted trying to suck ass long enough to build something that good player development, trading, free agency, etc, can build sooner.

Which is why we **** up so severely in following the "oh hey let's chase .500 and hope" plan for the past two years. Which is why I've been raising the alarm about us having **** up. **** up again by trying to accelerate the schedule back to competitiveness is not a cure for having **** up in the past by trying to cling to some pale shadow of competitivness. It's better to compete in Vlad's fourth year than to bungle a quickie rebuild and never compete at all during his seven years of team control, which is what the Angels have done with Mike Trout's prime.

[GoRapstheoriginal]

Gets popcorn out. Dis gonna be gud.

I also commend all you hardcore Jays fans for doing this year round.

Without my Raptors/Raiders/Maple Leafs & UFC I'd go plum crazy.

Hopefully the Jays will be marginally better in 2019? I got nothing.

[wamco]

Seeing how the world knew, and Atkins acknowledged we’d lose players in the rule v draft, that is one place I’d liked to have seen some creativity to make a move rather than simply lose 2 assets that were close to (or as other teams seem to believe) be ready for a look at a mlb bullpen tryout this year . I’d love a homegrown cheap bullpen If nothing else.

Is there a list of atkins trades and signings since he took over? Sitting on every prospect and signing dollar store free agents doesn’t take much skill or really much work. I know it’s simplifying it and we’re retooling and all but still.

[Tanner]

Exactly my point. Several of their top prospects had already graduated...it did not make them a good team overnight. It wasn't until the fruits of a half-decade of efforts were borne that they actually came good. You cannot build a baseball team around one or two top prospects alone. Altuve, Correa, Springer, McCullers, Bregman and the rest represent a long period of accumulation, something we do not have. We will need to wait for a second wave; that second wave is not going to happen in 2020.

If you call up young players who become good right away, which is happening a lot more often with young talent nowadays, then building a winning team becomes easier. The Astros tanked to get their top prospects, and when their best prospects came up, that's when they saw the shift. Just because it took them years of tanking it doesn't mean everyone has to do it like that. The Jays didn’t tank (at least not intentionally), but over the next 6 to 12 months we will be seeing a lot of prospects take big league spots on the Jays roster. By 2020 the lineup should be predominately young talent from the system with varying degrees of upside.

As Shapiro said in an interview there is high volatility with young players, so we can get better real quick or not progress as quick as expected and both would be equally unsurprising, but this wave of talent is all coming up at the same time, not years apart. Give them a year or two of figuring out the big leagues while supplementing them via free agency/trades and I see no reason why they can't become .500 or better soon. If Vlad gets hurt or becomes a bust, then all is out the window, but that's the case for all teams.

A 2 fWAR projection is better known as 'par' if the goal is .500. That's league average. I quite like Jansen as a prospect, but the fact that he's 0.2 wins above par is not going to cause us to surge to relevance.

No my point was a rookie Jansen and a half season in Gurriel are already projected as 2 war players. I think Jansen can be better than that over time, remains to be seen with Gurriel, but it shows that young talent coming up doesn't necessarily mean waiting years to get production. Vlad is a projected 5+ war.

Which is why we **** up so severely in following the "oh hey let's chase .500 and hope" plan for the past two years. Which is why I've been raising the alarm about us having **** up. **** up again by trying to accelerate the schedule back to competitiveness is not a cure for having **** up in the past by trying to cling to some pale shadow of competitivness. It's better to compete in Vlad's fourth year than to bungle a quickie rebuild and never compete at all during his seven years of team control, which is what the Angels have done with Mike Trout's prime.

Rebuilding after making the ALCS 2 straight years was not going to happen. Rebuilding before 2018 was definitely an option, but how far did it really set us back? The one player that set us back was probably Osuna, and that had nothing to do with timing. If he was trade bait without the legal problems then we likely get much more than Giles/Paulino/Perez. The "chase for .500 and hope" plan was a risk that failed, but a risk taken when the 2nd WC projections were a bunch of similar teams bunched together. Obviously in hindsight the Jays weren't winning 95+ games to take the 2nd WC but no one thought it would take that much.

Either way, if the Jays wait until Vlad's 4th season to become good, I'll be really disappointed. Wasting an elite player's cheapest prime years on a dream when they have practically one player (Gurriel) making guaranteed money beyond 2020 (and even that is peanuts) is insanity. You don't have to pull an Alex A 2013, but sign good free agents, make good trades, etc, and it can move quickly. The A's traded Josh Donaldson in his prime for what turned out to be nothing that has helped them, but 3 years later they were a playoff team winning nearly 100 games. Nothing in baseball is ever on a linear path.

[johanliebert]

Atkins doesn’t blow me away as overly creative so far in his regime. Risk adverse, high floor boring moves.

What kind of high risk moves would impress you. Signing a 35 year old? Trading Guerrero Jr for a 32 year old vet? There is a time in the cycle when patience is the greatest virtue - along with good talent analysis and development. Creative risk taking is best saved for when the team is close to real contention, and needs to max out its assets more quickly to keep the momentum going. That's when it might make sense to make a bold signing or trade.

stuff AA did like trading for yunel escobar, edwin, colby or JD.

[Schad]

you call up young players who become good right away, which is happening a lot more often with young talent nowadays, then building a winning team becomes easier. The Astros tanked to get their top prospects, and when their best prospects came up, that's when they saw the shift. Just because it took them years of tanking it doesn't mean everyone has to do it like that. The Jays didn’t tank (at least not intentionally), but over the next 6 to 12 months we will be seeing a lot of prospects take big league spots on the Jays roster. By 2020 the lineup should be predominately young talent from the system with varying degrees of upside.

As Shapiro said in an interview there is high volatility with young players, so we can get better real quick or not progress as quick as expected and both would be equally unsurprising, but this wave of talent is all coming up at the same time, not years apart. Give them a year or two of figuring out the big leagues while supplementing them via free agency/trades and I see no reason why they can't become .500 or better soon. If Vlad gets hurt or becomes a bust, then all is out the window, but that's the case for all teams.

You're severely overestimating this wave of talent, then. Vlad is an elite prospect. Bichette is an elite prospect. Jansen is a very good (and high floor) prospect. The rest of this wave? I like the upside of some, but they're all lottery tickets. There isn't a single other individual player in the farm system that I'd lay money on being league-average or better. Now, we have enough near the majors that we'll likely get a couple more who will achieve those heights, which is why prospect depth is absolutely invaluable, but the reverse is true also; a lot of those second-tier prospects will flame out. If we're banking on a bunch of dudes ranked between 150-400th leaguewide all hitting the majors and producing immediately, we're not going to win many baseball games.

Rebuilding after making the ALCS 2 straight years was not going to happen. Rebuilding before 2018 was definitely an option, but how far did it really set us back? The one player that set us back was probably Osuna, and that had nothing to do with timing. If he was trade bait without the legal problems then we likely get much more than Giles/Paulino/Perez. The "chase for .500 and hope" plan was a risk that failed, but a risk taken when the 2nd WC projections were a bunch of similar teams bunched together. Obviously in hindsight the Jays weren't winning 95+ games to take the 2nd WC but no one thought it would take that much.

How much did it set us back? Had we done the smart thing and started to rebuild at the 2017 deadline and continued into the offseason, we could have gotten a hell of a lot more for Osuna, for Happ, and for Donaldson, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars in prospect value.

Either way, if the Jays wait until Vlad's 4th season to become good, I'll be really disappointed. Wasting an elite player's cheapest prime years on a dream when they have practically one player (Gurriel) making guaranteed money beyond 2020 (and even that is peanuts) is insanity. You don't have to pull an Alex A 2013, but sign good free agents, make good trades, etc, and it can move quickly. The A's traded Josh Donaldson in his prime for what turned out to be nothing that has helped them, but 3 years later they were a playoff team winning nearly 100 games. Nothing in baseball is ever on a linear path.

It's not waiting until X time to be good. Being good is not a sign you flip on the front of the stadium, it's the product of having the assets to actually be good. That's the problem we have had: we have confused "WE ARE TOTALLY COMPETING YOU GUYS!!!!" with actually being in a reasonable position to compete. We are nowhere near a reasonable position to compete; again, the lack of guaranteed money past 2020 is not a good thing in a lot of respects, because most teams have money tied to people who play baseball, and we don't.

Free agency is not a strong way to build a team anymore, and while we have prospects, what we lack is the high-end quality and depth beyond the untradable players to do what other rebuilding clubs did: namely, have an excess that can be used to acquire other cost-controlled players in their primes, because free agents are almost all late-peak/past-peak simply because of the way that baseball's team control years are structured. In his entire tenure with the Astros, want to guess how many players Luhnow has signed in Houston whose AAV exceeded, I dunno, Kendrys Morales? One. One "free agent splash" of any note in six years, Josh Reddick for the princely sum of $52m over 4. Their second-biggest outlay over that span is, of all people, Scott Feldman (we acquired the last few months of his 3 year, $30m deal for our stretch run, heh).

Now, our second wave could prove so exceptional that it not only arrives in time to bolster the major league team, but provide the trade bait to strengthen further and still not leave the cupboards bare. Is there any reason we should expect that, though? No, there really isn't.

[Skin Blues]

Atkins doesn’t blow me away as overly creative so far in his regime. Risk adverse, high floor boring moves.

What kind of high risk moves would impress you. Signing a 35 year old? Trading Guerrero Jr for a 32 year old vet? There is a time in the cycle when patience is the greatest virtue - along with good talent analysis and development. Creative risk taking is best saved for when the team is close to real contention, and needs to max out its assets more quickly to keep the momentum going. That's when it might make sense to make a bold signing or trade.

stuff AA did like trading for yunel escobar, edwin, colby or JD.

Trading for Edwin was hardly a risk, considering AA DFA'd and released him not long after he traded a bag of marbles for him. Then when Oakland released him, AA picked him back up. No resources given up either time he was acquired. Every team cycles through players trying to stumble upon gold like that.

Donaldson's acquisition was also not a risk. AA mitigated risk of three young players with a combined 20 years or so of team control (Lawrie/Barreto/Graveman) by trading them for a superstar with 4 years of control. That's the opposite of a risk; it's trading 3 risks for one sure thing.

AA himself was pretty risk averse himself, and that's what enabled us to make a two deep playoff runs. I agree, we should be making risks right now. Risks such as trading sure-thing vets for high-variance prospects. Essentially, the opposite of what AA did.

[polo007]

https://theathletic.com/751347/2019/01/05/rosenthal-free-agency-possibilities-abound-for-kimbrel-yankees-tighten-their-spending-keuchels-shrewd-move/

The Los Angeles Times reported that Grandal rejected a four-year, $60 million offer from the Mets, and sources on both sides said the depiction was essentially accurate.

While the Mets did not make Grandal a formal proposal, they talked to him about a deal in the $55 million range and indicated a willingness to go to $60 million. Grandal, however, wanted to be closer to $65 million.

When the two sides could not reach an agreement, the Mets signed free-catcher Wilson Ramos to a two-year, $19 million contract. Grandal, 30, remains on the open market, and many in the industry doubt he will get close to what the Mets offered.

The Dodgers continue to look for a catcher, and the Brewers, Astros and Indians are among the teams that still might want to upgrade at the position. Martin Maldonado remains a free agent, and the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, the Pirates’ Francisco Cervelli and the Blue Jays’ Russell Martin are available in trade.

[Raptors Realtor]

https://theathletic.com/751347/2019/01/05/rosenthal-free-agency-possibilities-abound-for-kimbrel-yankees-tighten-their-spending-keuchels-shrewd-move/

The Los Angeles Times reported that Grandal rejected a four-year, $60 million offer from the Mets, and sources on both sides said the depiction was essentially accurate.

While the Mets did not make Grandal a formal proposal, they talked to him about a deal in the $55 million range and indicated a willingness to go to $60 million. Grandal, however, wanted to be closer to $65 million.

When the two sides could not reach an agreement, the Mets signed free-catcher Wilson Ramos to a two-year, $19 million contract. Grandal, 30, remains on the open market, and many in the industry doubt he will get close to what the Mets offered.

The Dodgers continue to look for a catcher, and the Brewers, Astros and Indians are among the teams that still might want to upgrade at the position. Martin Maldonado remains a free agent, and the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, the Pirates’ Francisco Cervelli and the Blue Jays’ Russell Martin are available in trade.

Wow can't believe he turned down 4/$60M because he hopes to get 4/$65M... I think he's worth in the $12-$13M/year neighbourhood and would be surprised if someone else pays much more then that.

[Skin Blues]

It's really hard to know what guys are worth anymore. Teams are paying so much less than they used to for the same talent. You have the odd guy like Hosmer or Santana that get lucky, but it's hard to predict.

[phillipmike]

Seeing how the world knew, and Atkins acknowledged we’d lose players in the rule v draft, that is one place I’d liked to have seen some creativity to make a move rather than simply lose 2 assets that were close to (or as other teams seem to believe) be ready for a look at a mlb bullpen tryout this year . I’d love a homegrown cheap bullpen If nothing else.

Is there a list of atkins trades and signings since he took over? Sitting on every prospect and signing dollar store free agents doesn’t take much skill or really much work. I know it’s simplifying it and we’re retooling and all but still.

The record should be shown that if the Jays wanted to keep Romano and Bergen they easily could have, very easily. They made the decision not to protect them on purpose, not because they couldn't. Im not advocating the decision but just trying to bring some clarity to their position - to me i see it is quite clear Romano and Bergen werent valued as many posters value them (me included, somewhat) and the Jays current FO do not view them as short or long term Blue Jays - or they view others or the field (potential, signings and trades) more than them.

[BigLeagueChew]

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Wasn't sure where to post this, Around mlb or here.

It's kind of surprising he only gets a 1 year deal , projecting as a top 5 catcher next season in steamer fwar but that's a 3-4 win upgrade on Pina and Kratz.

Also leaves the best FA options left for catcher as Matt Weiters or Martin Maldonado, both below replacement level. Might activate the trade market for some catchers.

[polo007]

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[Raptors Realtor]

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Wasn't sure where to post this, Around mlb or here.

It's kind of surprising he only gets a 1 year deal , projecting as a top 5 catcher next season in steamer fwar but that's a 3-4 win upgrade on Pina and Kratz.

Also leaves the best FA options left for catcher as Matt Weiters or Martin Maldonado, both below replacement level. Might activate the trade market for some catchers.

It's a gamble turning down a guaranteed 4/$60M for 1/$18M... Good catcher but he'll be another year older next season as a FA again, and if he begins to decline or has a down year he'll be looking at a lower annual salary or another shorter term deal.