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2018-19 Offseason Thread

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#481 » by BigLeagueChew » Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:47 pm

dagger wrote:Marco Estrada signs with the A's, for 1 yr/4m - Oakland is a good park for him.

Good for him. Has looked like a player in a lot of pain while pitching and managed to pitch through it. Allowing a few less home runs will certainly help.

He thanked Jays fans yesterday online before signing the deal today.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#482 » by So_Fresh » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:19 pm

The stadium in Oakland will help Estrada. It's a pitcher's park. Happy for him.

Thanks for the memories Marco!!

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#483 » by dagger » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:43 pm

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#484 » by phillipmike » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:51 pm

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#485 » by Schad » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:51 pm

Well, at least we didn't end up trading for Galvis, as was rumoured a year previous.

Still have no idea why we signed him; he's a well-below-average starting SS, which you'd think we have enough of already.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#486 » by Skin Blues » Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:23 pm

uhhh..... what? why? Couldn't take a chance on Tulo for free but we give $5M to Freddy Galvis? He's been the same hitter for the past 6 years, what upside do they possibly see here? I guess this means the chances of seeing Bo on the MLB roster this year are slim to none. Maybe this was a way to justify keeping him down in case Gurriel tanks.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#487 » by vaff87 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:27 pm

Skin Blues wrote:uhhh..... what? why? Couldn't take a chance on Tulo for free but we give $5M to Freddy Galvis? He's been the same hitter for the past 6 years, what upside do they possibly see here? I guess this means the chances of seeing Bo on the MLB roster this year are slim to none. Maybe this was a way to justify keeping him down in case Gurriel tanks.


It's simply in case Gurriel doesn't perform and they don't think Bo is ready.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#488 » by polo007 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:43 pm

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#489 » by Schad » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:43 pm

Skin Blues wrote:uhhh..... what? why? Couldn't take a chance on Tulo for free but we give $5M to Freddy Galvis? He's been the same hitter for the past 6 years, what upside do they possibly see here? I guess this means the chances of seeing Bo on the MLB roster this year are slim to none. Maybe this was a way to justify keeping him down in case Gurriel tanks.


Doubt he'll have any impact on Bo; the odds of seeing him on the MLB roster were probably pretty slim to begin with, unless he demolishes AAA. I just don't get using our finite dollars on a guy who isn't a substantial upgrade over...well, anything. I'd rather we made a play for a much more flippable asset, like another reliever.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#490 » by SharoneWright » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:42 pm

Trade Travis for peanuts.

Gurriel to 2B.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#491 » by BigLeagueChew » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:47 pm

bwar of 2.4 last year vs fwar of 1.2.

Funny random meaningless stat, his career ops is higher on bunts than ground balls or fly balls.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#492 » by Brinbe » Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:08 pm

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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#493 » by Schad » Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:15 pm

BigLeagueChew wrote:bwar of 2.4 last year vs fwar of 1.2.

Funny random meaningless stat, his career ops is higher on bunts than ground balls or fly balls.


Even with the inconsistencies between the two metrics, you get 5.5 bWAR over 4 seasons vs 6.7 fWAR...given that he has received well over 600 PAs/year, that's a continuum between "slightly below-average" and "decidedly below-average". On paper, $5m is okay value for a somewhat below-average starting shortstop, but it's weird when we already have a somewhat below-average shortstop who is 4 years younger and has a contract that runs for five years. I'm hardly Gurriel's biggest fan, but you'd think that the incentives work in favour of giving him a full-time workload at least until the better-regarded prospects bubble up.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#494 » by SharoneWright » Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:26 pm

Schad wrote:
BigLeagueChew wrote:bwar of 2.4 last year vs fwar of 1.2.

Funny random meaningless stat, his career ops is higher on bunts than ground balls or fly balls.


Even with the inconsistencies between the two metrics, you get 5.5 bWAR over 4 seasons vs 6.7 fWAR...given that he has received well over 600 PAs/year, that's a continuum between "slightly below-average" and "decidedly below-average". On paper, $5m is okay value for a somewhat below-average starting shortstop, but it's weird when we already have a somewhat below-average shortstop who is 4 years younger and has a contract that runs for five years. I'm hardly Gurriel's biggest fan, but you'd think that the incentives work in favour of giving him a full-time workload at least until the better-regarded prospects bubble up.


That's exactly where I land. We have a younger shortstop with more upside (there's that word again...ugh), on contract for 5 years. Might as well play him!? Maybe find a bit more pitching instead?
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#495 » by phillipmike » Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:43 pm

Solid signing, get that extra club option which will be useful to other teams in trade. Good defender and can be moved easily if Gurriel is playing well and/or Bichette and Biggio are ready.

Great defender, been worth at least 1 WAR and has played at 150 games in the last 4 seasons. 29 years old, and a switch hitter, good base runner who can give you 10 SB. Sounds like a better Solarte and you gave up nothing but money and a roster spot.

Coming off a 1.6 WAR season one year of Galvis at 6.8M landed a 22 year old MLB ready potential backend starter in Enyel De Los Santos. I like my chances with Galvis coming off a 1.2 WAR season with the option of 2 years of control (or 1.5 years by the time you want to trade him) making 4M and has an option at 5M.

This deal doesn’t prevent the Jays from adding pitching. These are the exact deals the Jays should be making, if Gurriel is good then Galvis sits and if Gurriel is bad you have Galvis as insurance. That simple.

Galvis bring value on the field, insurance and value of a potential trade in the middle of the season.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#496 » by BigLeagueChew » Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:03 pm

SharoneWright wrote:
Schad wrote:
BigLeagueChew wrote:bwar of 2.4 last year vs fwar of 1.2.

Funny random meaningless stat, his career ops is higher on bunts than ground balls or fly balls.


Even with the inconsistencies between the two metrics, you get 5.5 bWAR over 4 seasons vs 6.7 fWAR...given that he has received well over 600 PAs/year, that's a continuum between "slightly below-average" and "decidedly below-average". On paper, $5m is okay value for a somewhat below-average starting shortstop, but it's weird when we already have a somewhat below-average shortstop who is 4 years younger and has a contract that runs for five years. I'm hardly Gurriel's biggest fan, but you'd think that the incentives work in favour of giving him a full-time workload at least until the better-regarded prospects bubble up.


That's exactly where I land. We have a younger shortstop with more upside (there's that word again...ugh), on contract for 5 years. Might as well play him!? Maybe find a bit more pitching instead?

Was thinking if an infieder is injured he could plug in anywhere in the infield rather than Urena or maybe rushing someone. Travis, Gurriel and Drury have had their fair share of injuries. Then when Guerrero is called up one of the infielders gets moved.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#497 » by Lateral Quicks » Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:42 pm

Ugghh... not looking forward to watching Galvis strike out 125-150 times next year. At least it's only for one year.

I get the importance of having depth, but I sure hope we aren't making these kinds of signings when the team is ready to compete again.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#498 » by Tanner » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:35 am

Lateral Quicks wrote:Ugghh... not looking forward to watching Galvis strike out 125-150 times next year. At least it's only for one year.

I get the importance of having depth, but I sure hope we aren't making these kinds of signings when the team is ready to compete again.


I have actually been disappointed with this winter. Not that the front office is doing a bad job, they aren't, but damn near every other team in baseball is rebuilding at the same time aside from a few top teams, and even those teams are finding ways to hold on to top prospects and improve their farm. People have criticized Shapiro regime for not fully committing to a rebuild, but in this case the criticism should be their insistence on following the market trend rather than taking advantage of it. With every other team wanting to penny pinch, why not take advantage of post-2019 payroll flexibility and sign Harper/Machado? You can still rebuild at the same time, no one is saying go for it, but the value there even if it's $250m is going to be more likely to make a difference than these minor utility IF/reclamation project transactions that won't yield much at the deadline or provide much on the field.

Again, I don't see why we can't sign good players and rebuild at the same time. We have like no money committed after 2020, and are about 4 years away from Vlad making any money. Now is as good a time as any to follow that path. As long as you're not trading prospects away or committing big money to 30-somethings, it's a great time to do it.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#499 » by Schad » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:02 am

Because historically there generally isn't much surplus value in signing a player for $250m. At $8m/fWAR, $250m over 8 years means an average of 3.9 fWAR per year through age 34 for Harper; it's hardly outside the realm of possibility that Harper reaches that, maybe even better than a 50/50 shot, but there's far more downside risk than upside given that he hasn't even exceeded that over the past three years. Further, unless we're offering significantly more than anyone else (read: paying more than market value, which is generally a Really Bad Idea), why would Harper or Machado have any interest in joining a rebuilding team?

Beyond that, the best bang for buck comes in the front end of free agent deals...the years we'd be burning by being not good, because even the addition of Harper or Machado will not make us good. The six years from 2021 - 2026 on that deal are less likely to be good value than the contract as a whole.

And once again: what we have after 2020 is not "payroll flexibility". It's "lack of baseball players". We need a crazy-high hit rate on our prospects to have more than the skeleton of a competitive team within the next three years, and that's not something I'd want to place a $250m bet on.
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Re: 2018-19 Offseason Thread 

Post#500 » by Tanner » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:22 am

An eight year deal for Harper or Machado will cover ages 26-33. They will certainly decline by the end of it, but I don't think either one is that big of a risk to fall of a cliff at that age. Even if you think it will be 3 more years of rebuilding before the Jays are good (I think they can be good a lot sooner but let's say 3 years), then Harper/Machado would be 29 year's old surrounded by a bunch of 20-somethings in Vlad, Bo, Jansen, etc. This is a rare instance where the timeline for a long term free agent actually fits a rebuilding team.

I agree that Harper/Machado actually wanting to sign with the Jays is the main hurdle. I have no idea what they want, but I'm sure they'd prefer any American city over Canada. Regardless if no one else is willing to spend big money anymore, then the Jays might be able to get the highest bid without spending the 10/350 that people expected those guys to get. Would they take 8/260? Maybe, depends on what other offers they are getting.

If the rest of the league were spending money like crazy and trying to compete, then I'd say the Jays are absolutely doing the right thing. But the rest of the league is sitting on their wallets clutching on to their top prospects with a vice grip, all while not caring if they lose 100 games while the 5 or so great teams remain great. If there was any time to make a big splash in free agency it is now because it's probably easier to sign Harper than it is to squeeze a top prospect from another team in a trade. Can't be a slave to the market.

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