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Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:14 pm
by Black Watch
Veterans committee vote is in: Lee Smith and Harold Baines are going to Cooperstown next summer.

Life makes no sense.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/12/09/harold-baines-mlb-hall-fame-election

Although Smith is a fine if unspectacular choice for induction, it’s Baines who represents one of the most baffling and poor Hall of Fame choices in decades.

There’s no real argument for Baines as a Hall of Famer. If you can put one together, it’s probably a bad one. You’d have an easier time making a case that he’s one of the worst Hall of Famers ever: Of the 157 hitters enshrined, Baines would rank 144th by bWAR, alongside such dubious and dusty choices as George Kell, Chick Hafey, and Rick Ferrell.

But more than anything, it just makes the Hall look stupid and reactionary. It’s the kind of silliness that makes you wonder if yet another revamp of the era committees is needed. And while I’m happy for Baines that he gets his moment in the sun (and Smith, too), it’s an indefensible and embarrassing choice that makes you wish the voters had gone with the shutout instead.


Now, the BBWAA will be voting in January on the following new players:

Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Andy Pettitte
Mariano Rivera
Rick Ankiel
Jason Bay
Lance Berkman
Freddy Garcia
Jon Garland
Travis Hafner
Ted Lilly
Derek Lowe
Darren Oliver
Roy Oswalt
Juan Pierre
Placido Polanco
Miguel Tejada
Vernon Wells
Kevin Youkilis
Michael Young

Returning to the ballot are:

Edgar Martínez (70.4%,10th year)
Mike Mussina (63.5%, 6th year)
Roger Clemens (57.3%, 7th year)
Barry Bonds (56.4%, 7th year)
Curt Schilling (51.2%, 6th year)
Omar Vizquel (37.0%, 2nd year)
Larry Walker (34.1%, 9th year)
Fred McGriff (23.2%, 10th year)
Manny Ramírez (22.0%, 3rd year)
Jeff Kent (14.5%, 6th year)
Gary Sheffield (11.1%, 5th year)
Billy Wagner (11.1%, 4th year)
Scott Rolen (10.2%, 2nd year)
Sammy Sosa (7.8%, 7th year)
Andruw Jones (7.3%, 2nd year).

Who do you think should get in?

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:06 pm
by Skin Blues
Harold Baines. JFC. All the guys falling off the ballot these days, and they vote in Harold Baines. Even if he was an above average outfielder for his whole career he'd not be voted in... but as a DH?? Meanwhile, Scott Rolen is gonna fall off the ballot with no attention at all. What an embarrassment.

I realize this is partly because guys voted on by these special committees don't have an issue being blocked by a logjam the same way guys on the actual ballot can be. But if Lee Smith getting only 34% of the vote in his 15th year on the ballot, and then getting 100% a year later by a committee, doesn't make it clear that people need to be able to vote for more than 10 people, I don't know what does.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:13 pm
by Schad
Selecting Harold Baines before Edgar Martinez gets in is some next-level nonsense.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:50 pm
by JaysRule15
Halladay better be a first ballot hall of famer or I'm done.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:14 pm
by vaff87
Yeah, somebody has to tell me how the hell Harold Baines is a HOFer...

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:22 am
by SharoneWright
Not my compilation/comments, but I had to post:

So Harold Baines can get in, but not Larry frigging Walker.

To wit:

GP
Baines: 2,830 (11,092 PA)
Walker: 1,988 (8,030 PA)

Hits
Baines: 2,866
Walker: 2,160

HR
Baines: 384
Walker: 383

RBI
Baines: 1,628
Walker: 1,355

Slash Line (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Baines: .289/.356/.465/.820
Walker: .313/.400/.565/.965

SB
Baines: 34 (50% success rate)
Walker: 230 (75% success rate)

Career fWAR
Baines: 38.4
Walker: 68.7

Seasons with fWAR:
Negative: Baines (3), Walker (1)
0-1: Baines (3), Walker (0)
1-3: Baines (14), Walker (3)
3-5: Baines (2), Walker (7)
5-7: Baines (0), Walker (4)
7-9: Baines (0), Walker (1)
>9: Biaines (0), Walker (1)


Trophy case
Baines: 6x All-Star, 1x WS, 1x Silver Slugger
Walker: 5x All-Star, 1x NL MVP, 7x Gold Glove, 3x Silver Slugger, 3x MLB Batting Title, 1x NL HR title

Baines counting stat leads are entirely down to longevity in large part because he spent so much of his career as a DH. But the fact that Walker played almost 1,000 fewer games in his career and yet was only behind him by 700 hits, 300 RBI and 1 HR makes Walker's career marks all the more impressive.

Larry Walker was, for a time, one of the very best players in baseball and was one of the most complete players in baseball. Harold Baines was a very good DH who had some pretty OK seasons for a fairly long stretch of a lengthy career and who, it must be stressed, was still just primarily a DH because he was a tire fire in the field.

Herpa derp derp HOF!

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:38 am
by Schad
vaff87 wrote:Yeah, somebody has to tell me how the hell Harold Baines is a HOFer...


As far as I can tell? The selection committee had a lot of people who managed/played/GMed in the 80s and 90s, and Baines was a good hitter for a really long time during that span. They remember him being good forever, and don't really care about the bit where he wasn't great, and was a DH, and know exactly nothing about anything beyond counting stats, and his counting stats are okay. Always remember: as bad as the judgment of some baseball writers might be, the judgment of baseball people can be even worse.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:05 am
by Hoopstarr
More than anything, the BBWAA looooves longevity. It explains Dawson, Trammell, Blyleven, and countless others. They also love gimmicks. Was your name Goose and was it alliterative with your surname? Come on in. Were you a funkily mustachioed reliever? Right this way, sir. Were you an elite player during your prime and produced 50% more value than the average player during that time? Meh.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:42 am
by Schad
Hoopstarr wrote:More than anything, the BBWAA looooves longevity. It explains Dawson, Trammell, Blyleven, and countless others. They also love gimmicks. Was your name Goose and was it alliterative with your surname? Come on in. Were you a funkily mustachioed reliever? Right this way, sir. Were you an elite player during your prime and produced 50% more value than the average player during that time? Meh.


By the way, this was the panel:

Hall of Famers: Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Pat Gillick, Tony La Russa, Greg Maddux, Joe Morgan, John Schuerholz, Ozzie Smith, Joe Torre

Executives: Al Avila (Tigers), Paul Beeston (Blue Jays), Andy MacPhail (Phillies), Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox)

Media: Steve Hirdt (Elias Sports Bureau), Tim Kurkjian (ESPN), Claire Smith (ESPN)


I will disagree on Trammell; he had a 50+ fWAR ten-year peak, and definitely belongs in the HoF. He kinda feeds into the second part of the equation, though: Alan Trammell was good more than he was exciting, and his name is pretty boring to boot.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:33 pm
by Al_Oliver
Schad wrote:
Hoopstarr wrote:More than anything, the BBWAA looooves longevity. It explains Dawson, Trammell, Blyleven, and countless others. They also love gimmicks. Was your name Goose and was it alliterative with your surname? Come on in. Were you a funkily mustachioed reliever? Right this way, sir. Were you an elite player during your prime and produced 50% more value than the average player during that time? Meh.


By the way, this was the panel:

Hall of Famers: Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Pat Gillick, Tony La Russa, Greg Maddux, Joe Morgan, John Schuerholz, Ozzie Smith, Joe Torre

Executives: Al Avila (Tigers), Paul Beeston (Blue Jays), Andy MacPhail (Phillies), Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox)

Media: Steve Hirdt (Elias Sports Bureau), Tim Kurkjian (ESPN), Claire Smith (ESPN)


I will disagree on Trammell; he had a 50+ fWAR ten-year peak, and definitely belongs in the HoF. He kinda feeds into the second part of the equation, though: Alan Trammell was good more than he was exciting, and his name is pretty boring to boot.


Shocking... Tony "DUI" La Russa making bad decisions

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:31 pm
by Skin Blues
Hoopstarr wrote:More than anything, the BBWAA looooves longevity. It explains Dawson, Trammell, Blyleven, and countless others. They also love gimmicks. Was your name Goose and was it alliterative with your surname? Come on in. Were you a funkily mustachioed reliever? Right this way, sir. Were you an elite player during your prime and produced 50% more value than the average player during that time? Meh.

Bert Blyleven had a 7-year peak rWAR higher than both Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay, to give some modern context. He had 5 seasons of an ERA+ of 140 or better, and at least 30 starts. Sandy Koufax, the all-peak / anti-compiler, only ever did that 3 times. Blyleven was criminally under-rated and it took way too long for him to get into the HOF.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:00 pm
by I_Like_Dirt
Schad wrote:As far as I can tell? The selection committee had a lot of people who managed/played/GMed in the 80s and 90s, and Baines was a good hitter for a really long time during that span. They remember him being good forever, and don't really care about the bit where he wasn't great, and was a DH, and know exactly nothing about anything beyond counting stats, and his counting stats are okay. Always remember: as bad as the judgment of some baseball writers might be, the judgment of baseball people can be even worse.


I get the impression it was the people on the selection committee, too - specifically those who knew him. They'll push everyone around them to vote for their guys. It was at it's worst in the 70s and was better for a bit but with Baines appears to be an issue again. Edgar Martinez absolutely deserves to be in the HoF. Baines... just ridiculous.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:11 pm
by wamco
Is it insane to suggest that a better case could be made for will Clark than for Baines?

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:01 pm
by Al_Oliver
wamco wrote:Is it insane to suggest that a better case could be made for will Clark than for Baines?


Fred McGriif! Or Carlos Delgado...

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:36 pm
by I_Like_Dirt
I'm pretty sure there's a quality argument for Baines induction somewhere in here:

https://sports.theonion.com/derek-jeter-honored-for-having-fewer-hits-than-harold-b-1819571015

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:14 pm
by I_Like_Dirt
wamco wrote:Is it insane to suggest that a better case could be made for will Clark than for Baines?


Easily. Frankly, Orel Hershiser was also on the same ballot as Baines, too. Hershiser isn't really a strong HoF candidate but at least when you watched him play you knew you were watching a great player. With Baines... Yeah, no idea. The conspiracy theorist of me almost wonders if, after his induction, he won't admit to using PEDs offering a gateway for other legitimately deserving players to get in after the scandal. The rational part says this has to be about Baines' connections to the committee, probably combined with a dash of "stats are overrated."

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:32 pm
by Hoopstarr
Baines was voted in by 12 members of a 16 person panel, four of whom were a former teammate/manager/GM/owner.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:18 pm
by Black Watch
Hoopstarr wrote:Baines was voted in by 12 members of a 16 person panel, four of whom were a former teammate/manager/GM/owner.

Meant to post this before Schad beat me to it: La Russa doubtless bullied the rest of the panel to vote Baines in.

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:57 pm
by Al_Oliver
Hoopstarr wrote:Baines was voted in by 12 members of a 16 person panel, four of whom were a former teammate/manager/GM/owner.


This is ridiculous...

Re: Hall of Fame, Class of 2019

Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:53 pm
by Skin Blues
Well, he was in the league for 22 years, frankly it's amazing he wasn't linked to all of those guys at some point. Joe Carter had Robbie Alomar and Beeston (and Gillick) to vote for him and didn't even get 5 votes total. The problem is that we're using players to determine who should be in the HOF, which is absurd. If this Baines nonsense doens't get them to re-think it, maybe in 5 years when the modern era committee elects Paul Konerko people will realize there's a problem.