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Re: Breaking: Jay trading Martin to Dodgers

Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:07 pm
by Schad
Tanner wrote:Starting the rebuild a year earlier is a bit overblown. Definitely would have been better just by the JD return alone, and trading Osuna before he got in legal trouble, but it’s not like we were turning down pre breakout Juan Soto and Elroy Jimenez to contend in 2018.

According to our own officials, though, we turned down Jack Flaherty and another prospect for Donaldson. That might not quite be Soto, but it's a major asset and a trade that we should have snatched with both hands.

Re: Breaking: Jay trading Martin to Dodgers

Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:16 am
by Lateral Quicks
An uninspiring return to be sure, but I suppose only 1 in 10 of these types of acquisitions needs to pan out for it to be worth it. Maybe Sopko can help in the bullpen down the road. Brito is a long, long way away, and his peripherals aren't encouraging.

I'm just happy Jansen will get a real shot. It also solidifies Maile's backup role, and gives McGuire the full-time AAA gig to see what he can do.

Re: Breaking: Jay trading Martin to Dodgers

Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:21 pm
by The_Hater
The only thing that could have made the contract hell of post AA era even worse is if Shapiro and co. resigned Price, Encarnacion and gave Bautista the huge extension he was lobbying for. Thankfully, they were smart enough not to perpetuate that mess a few more years. Gotta give AA credit for being smart enough to leave before the everything came crashing down though.

Re: Breaking: Jay trading Martin to Dodgers

Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:55 pm
by VanWest82
I'm shocked we got anything for Martin. He can't hit. What do we think the regular catcher rotation will look like to start the year, Jansen and Maile, or does McGuire sneak in there?

Re: Breaking: Jay trading Martin to Dodgers

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:19 pm
by phillipmike
Tanner wrote:It’s easier to trade vets like this when you have prospects ready to take over (Jansen for Martin, Gurriel for Tulo, etc). The Jays probably became a better team with these trades for that reason, not worse. Either way good move. Brito is exactly the type of prospect you hope shows flashes in the minors and then trade for a vet in 2-3 years when you need prospect capital to make trades.

Completely agree - We were a 73 win team last season and FG has us at 77, not the be all end all but i see us improving on the 73 wins;

2018 Position Value:
C: 2.9 WAR
SS: 2.0 WAR
3B: 1.0 WAR
Total: 5.9 WAR

2019 Project Value:
C: 3.1 WAR
SS: 2.2 WAR
3B: 5.2 WAR
Total: 10.5 WAR


2018 Player Value:
Martin: 0.6 WAR
Tulowitzki: 0.0 WAR
Diaz: 1.6 WAR
Donaldson: 0.8 WAR
Total: 3 WAR

2019 Projection Value:
Former Jays
Martin: 1.1 WAR
Tulowitzki: 1.5 WAR
Diaz: 0.6 WAR
Donaldson: 4.1 WAR
Total: 7.3 WAR

Current Jays
Jansen: 2.7 WAR
Gurriel: 2.1 WAR
Drury: 0.7 WAR
Guerrero: 5.1 WAR
Total: 10.6 WAR

Last year we got 5.9 WAR out of C, SS and 3B - Fangraph projects 10.5 WAR.
Last year we got 3 WAR out Martin, Tulo, Diaz and Donaldson.
Fangraphs projects 7.3 WAR out of Martin, Tulo, Diaz and Donaldson for the 2019and 10.6 WAR out of Jansen, Gurriel, Drury and Vladdy.

The 2019 should be better than the 2018 by swapping out unproductive old players (sans Diaz) for younger, healthier better players. This should show up in the win column and on field product.

Re: Breaking: Jay trading Martin to Dodgers

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:51 pm
by Schad
We're still quite likely to explore options for moving productive players, however; I'd think that the projections are more likely to fall than rise given that the players are the block include Smoak (projected for 2 WAR by Steamer), Pillar (1.8) and Stroman (2.5).

The on-field product should be more enjoyable even if we lose 100 games, because at least it'll be a younger team with promise, rather than a bunch of old dudes flailing about.

Re: Breaking: Jay trading Martin to Dodgers

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:21 pm
by phillipmike
Sure but until that happens the team today is better than what ended up playing for a 162 games in 2018. With the exception of Happ the 2019 appear to be better today than the what played in 2018.

Re: Breaking: Jay trading Martin to Dodgers

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:42 pm
by polo007
Phillips: Jays effectively gave Martin away -

In 2018, the Jays missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. Tulowitzki, 34, missed the entire 2018 season and only played 66 games in 2017. Martin appeared in 90 games last season for the Jays, finishing with 10 home runs and 25 RBIs in one of the worst offensive seasons of his career. He also posted a .194 batting average with a .338 on-base percentage.

Moving out their aging veterans on expensive deals opens up playing time for the Jays’ younger players, but the team lost Tulowitzki for nothing, while the return for Martin only brought back two prospects.

In the Martin trade, the Jays saved some money on their payroll, but the two players in the return are considered to be C-level prospects.

“The Dodgers got themselves backed into sort of in a desperate situation when they lost (Yasmani) Grandal and didn’t have any other catchers other than Austin Barnes so they make the deal,” said Phillips. “The Jays moved out around $3.4 million off the books – better than nothing. They effectively gave him away. The prospects in return were, you know, you need to get prospects in return to make it look like a trade instead of somebody just taking your money.”

“All the moves they are making are to put themselves in the position to be this young rebuilding team with a different sort of culture with nothing from the past really still there, mostly just gritty young guys going out there trying to play,” added Phillips.