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Around the MLB 2019

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Around the MLB 2019 

Post#1 » by BigLeagueChew » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:29 am

The Padres have made the bold choice to promote top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. to the MLB roster to open the season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter).

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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#2 » by BigLeagueChew » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:32 am

Source tells Olney Montreal expansion could happen

Stephen Bronfman, the executive chairman of Claridge Inc., is the leader of a group of Montreal businesspeople seeking to bring back baseball to Montreal. He said Monday that he and development group Devimco are working toward securing land near downtown to potentially build a stadium in an effort to land an MLB franchise.

“Don’t have to say we need to be ready,” Bronfman said Monday. “We are ready.


https://www.tsn.ca/source-tells-olney-montreal-expansion-could-happen-1.1279902
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#3 » by vaff87 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:52 am

Stupid Padres. We’d really be getting killed now, if Vladdy wasn’t hurt.
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#4 » by Cyrus » Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:58 am

who are the key free agents who still haven't signed, just Dallas Kuschel from Astros?
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#5 » by Schad » Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:22 am

vaff87 wrote:Stupid Padres. We’d really be getting killed now, if Vladdy wasn’t hurt.


It's definitely an eyebrow-raiser. Tatis is exceptionally talented, but he's a (barely) 20 year old who does have a fair bit of swing-and-miss, and he was injured for a decent chunk of last year. He certainly could be very good from the off, but it's no guarantee, and that Padres team is some distance from being a playoff favourite.

Perhaps they intend to extend him early, but purely for development purposes I'd have leaned toward starting him in AAA.
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#6 » by phillipmike » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:38 pm

Really bonehead move by the Padres organization. Unless an extension is coming this is completely idiotic.

You are potentially risking a year of control because you cant wait 3 weeks (should be longer).
But more importantly Tatis could use some time in AAA, he is a 20 year old who has never played in AAA with K rate of just under 30%.
Not to mention he has only hit against AA level pitching this spring.

Does not make sense on a developmental side nor the organizational side.
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#7 » by Skin Blues » Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:24 pm

Calling up Tatis right now is a bad decision since he's probably not ready. But if HE IS ready, it's an even worse decision. Assuming the former is true, and he's not great right away, they can plausibly send him down at some point for a few weeks since they have Kinsler on the bench ready to step in. If they just leave him up forever, it's a really expensive PR move.

At least with Paddack, he's a pitcher so who knows how good he'll be 7 years from now?? But Tatis is a completely different story. A lot has to go wrong for him to be anything other than a star when he reaches free agency. There wouldn't be a lot of scrutiny even if they left Tatis down past Super 2 which is much, much more beneficial to the team financially than just getting the extra year of control.

I've mentioned this with Vlad, but the 7th year of control is not as valuable as people seem to think since it'll come at the cost of a 4th trip through arbitration, which is easily $30M+. Whatever the player gets in Year 1 of arb cascades through their 4 arb years regardless of how well they perform after that. At least for the Padres, if Tatis is not great, it might only cost them $20M assuming his first two years only score him a $5M first time arb award. But the Red Sox will end up paying $42M for Mookie Betts' 7th year of team control. If he wasn't a Super 2, it would have cost them $500K. This can't be overstated. The injury to Vlad, and excuse to leave him down until mid-May, is enormously valuable. A few months ago I said something like "the best thing for the Jays is for Vlad to have some kind of pulled muscle in spring training to buy them a couple months of plausible deniability". Boy did that work out well for them!
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#8 » by phillipmike » Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:32 pm

For me the issue isnt what the 7th year costs via a 4th year of arb its just having the 7th year at all. Thats all that matters - the option of having a 7th year at potentially 30M+ or not having the 7th year at all. Because if you do not keep him down you only have him for 6 years and if you want that 7th year later on you cant simply go to Vlad and say i want to give you a 1 year extension to get the 7th year. The closer Vlad gets to free agency the more years and commitment has to be given.

Your options are likely if you want a 7th year;
1. An extension now (7+ years) - probably around 100M guaranteed
2. 6 years of control plus a free agent extension cover a 7th year - no guaranteed money for years 1-r but likely 200-300M guaranteed
3. Keep him down for at least 3-4 weeks and you automatically get that 7th year - no guaranteed money

That 7th year in option 3 is the best option because you basically go year to year and the money is non guaranteed, Its a series of seven 1 year deals.

its an opportunity cost, you can get the 7th year now for the cost of 3 weeks in the minors. But if you decide you want a 7th year later you are likely paying at least 100M in guaranteed money.
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#9 » by Skin Blues » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:50 am

The 7th year is a given at this point. The only consideration now is how much it will cost. My point is even if he's worth $40M for that 7th year, you're still paying almost full price for him anyway. There's not a lot of surplus value, there. People seem to only really pay attention to the extra year, but converting that extra year's salary from $42M to $500K (as the Red Sox could have done with Betts, if they'd known that he'd be a superstar) is much more valuable to a team than just the extra year on it's own. I suspect this is why the MLBPA has only put up a superficial fight since the superstars have for the most part been allowed to qualify as Super 2.
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#10 » by BigLeagueChew » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:59 am

Cyrus wrote:who are the key free agents who still haven't signed, just Dallas Kuschel from Astros?


Kimbrel still out there and then a bunch of role playing vets like Bautista.
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#11 » by BigLeagueChew » Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:46 pm

Tulo bats 9th for the Yankees for game 1.
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#12 » by phillipmike » Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:43 pm

Skin Blues wrote:The 7th year is a given at this point. The only consideration now is how much it will cost. My point is even if he's worth $40M for that 7th year, you're still paying almost full price for him anyway. There's not a lot of surplus value, there. People seem to only really pay attention to the extra year, but converting that extra year's salary from $42M to $500K (as the Red Sox could have done with Betts, if they'd known that he'd be a superstar) is much more valuable to a team than just the extra year on it's own. I suspect this is why the MLBPA has only put up a superficial fight since the superstars have for the most part been allowed to qualify as Super 2.


I think i get what you are trying to say now.
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#13 » by Schad » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:22 pm

Skin Blues wrote:The 7th year is a given at this point. The only consideration now is how much it will cost. My point is even if he's worth $40M for that 7th year, you're still paying almost full price for him anyway. There's not a lot of surplus value, there. People seem to only really pay attention to the extra year, but converting that extra year's salary from $42M to $500K (as the Red Sox could have done with Betts, if they'd known that he'd be a superstar) is much more valuable to a team than just the extra year on it's own. I suspect this is why the MLBPA has only put up a superficial fight since the superstars have for the most part been allowed to qualify as Super 2.


Agreed. It's why I've been pretty blase about the possibility that this will irreparably harm relations with the player...they're going to get their money anyway, it just buys us an extra year of flexibility. If you want to buy back their goodwill cheaply, unilaterally extend their pre-arb years at $1m or something.
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#14 » by BigLeagueChew » Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:12 am

Up 18-5,Martin pitches for the Dodgers.

https://www.thescore.com/s/9833087
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#15 » by polo007 » Mon Apr 1, 2019 5:11 am

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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#16 » by Centre Court » Wed Apr 3, 2019 3:29 am

I am waiting for the crazy outrage over this bat flip, just like when Bautista flipped his bat.

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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#17 » by vaff87 » Wed Apr 3, 2019 3:36 am

Centre Court wrote:I am waiting for the crazy outrage over this bat flip, just like when Bautista flipped his bat.

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I remember on an Eagles message board I go to, Phillies fans freaking out at me over Bautista’s bat flip. :lol:
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#18 » by BigLeagueChew » Wed Apr 3, 2019 9:20 pm

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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#19 » by dagger » Wed Apr 3, 2019 9:21 pm

Ha, ha
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Re: Around the MLB 2019 

Post#20 » by phillipmike » Wed Apr 3, 2019 9:25 pm

That Yankees turf is killer

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