2019 MLB Draft thread, June 3 - 5

[Schad]

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I'd really be curious to know of the relative success rates of the two avenues with non-elite high school talents: drafting kids with big fastballs who need to learn to pitch, versus drafting those with polish whose builds suggest that they'll eventually add velocity. And the relative injury risk, for that matter.

Quite like the pick, though. He's incredibly thin and in the 90s, and being polished and gangly suggests that he has good coordination, which will serve him well as he fills out. Seeing suggestions that there's no chance we take him there if we didn't believe that he can be signed away from Vandy, and if he's smart as various scouting sorts suggest, he should probably take $1.5m because my math suggests that's a fair bit of money.

[SharoneWright]

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-day-1-draft-results-alek-manoah

"Palpable!"

[Wally West]

Kendall Williams was number 22 on my board! Interesting, interesting pick.

[Schad]

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"High 90s heat" might be a slight exaggeration, heh.

[Schad]

Relevant: Alek Manoah is an anagram of "Kale? No, a ham."

[Lateral Quicks]

Hopefully 1 or 2 of these arms can move fast. Hell, when Luke Maile is deserving of a spot in your rotation, they may be upgrades already.

[Brinbe]

if things don't work out, williams/manoah could make a hell of a tag-team.

[dagger]

Relevant: Alek Manoah is an anagram of "Kale? No, a ham."

Two things, Schad

1. Speaking of Manoah, assuming he signs, where do you see him debuting? Vancouver?
2. We're well on the way to the third or fourth pick in the 2020 draft, and with such an AL East heavy schedule ahead of us, even higher is possible. What's the early read on 2020? Does it have stronger pitching at the top than this first round just concluded?

[-MetA4-]

1. Speaking of Manoah, assuming he signs, where do you see him debuting? Vancouver?

Yes, that would be the normal placement for him. Unsure how many innings they want him throwing, but it would almost certainly be in Vancouver.

2. We're well on the way to the third or fourth pick in the 2020 draft, and with such an AL East heavy schedule ahead of us, even higher is possible. What's the early read on 2020? Does it have stronger pitching at the top than this first round just concluded?

It is projected to be a stronger draft in general, and as of now looks heavy with college pitchers at the top (if that is what you are hoping for). Fangraphs' current board has 4 of the Top 7 as as being college pitchers; the class is also loaded with former top HS prospects who didn't sign like Cole Wilcox (projected first rounder who fell last year), Tanner Burns (Top 2 round talent out of HS), and J.T. Ginn (the Dodgers' first round pick from a year ago who didn't sign). Fangraphs' #1 player right now is UGA RHP Emerson Hancock.

[phillipmike]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2839264-2019-mlb-draft-picks-live-team-by-team-day-1-grades-and-analysis#slide29

First Round (No. 11 Overall): Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia
After serving as a swingman during his first two seasons on campus, Manoah moved into the role of staff ace this spring after a standout performance (33.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 48 K) in the Cape Cod League last summer. The 6'6", 260-pound right-hander can touch 97 mph with his fastball and he backs it with a good slider and a changeup that has flashed plus. He also offers more projection than most college arms due to his relatively short track record.
Grade: A+
The Blue Jays system is starved for high-ceiling arms behind Nate Pearson and Eric Pardinho. There's a very real chance they just got the best pitcher in the 2019 draft at No. 11 overall. This was the best-case scenario for them.

Second Round (No. 52 Overall): Kendall Williams, RHP, IMG Academy (Fla.)
Williams has an extremely projectable 6'6", 190-pound frame, and he uses his height well to create a downward plane. He throws a lot of strikes and commands his pitches well, showing a fastball that touches 94 mph, the makings of two solid breaking pitches and a passable changeup. He'll be a tough sign away from a commitment to Vanderbilt.
Grade: A
Getting him signed will obviously be key, but Williams is the perfect pick to pair with Manoah. Heck, maybe the 260-pound Manoah can share some recipes with the 190-pound Williams while they progress through the minors together.

[polo007]

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By the time the Blue Jays were up, amateur scouting director Steve Sanders had virtually the entire 2019 pitching pool to choose from, which is handy when the franchise is facing an organization-wide paucity of arms. Drafting based on immediate need is rarely a good idea, but in this instance, opportunity and deficiency dovetailed nicely.

"We really love what Alex brings to the table and his now-stuff," Sanders said during a conference call moments after making the pick Monday night. "But we do see room for him to continue to develop and continue to improve. He’s got a really well-rounded three-pitch mix (fastball, slider, changeup) we think is going to play at the next level."

Given the current circumstances at the big-league level and the desperate need for starters to time with developing position-player core, it’s natural to wonder when that might happen. College pitchers typically have a much faster trajectory to the majors than high-school arms. Those taken earlier in the draft, obviously, tend to be more advanced. If everything goes right, the six-foot-six, 260-pound righty from Miami has a chance to move quickly.

Still, caution is warranted. Developing starters is no easy task, as the Blue Jays draft record with college pitchers since 2000 shows. David Purcey and Zach Jackson (2004), Trystan Magnuson (2007), Chad Jenkins (2009), Deck McGuire and Asher Wojciechowski (2010), Jeff Hoffman (2014), Jon Harris (2015) and T.J. Zeuch (2016) all had the potential to zip through the system and make an impact, and didn’t.

Ricky Romero (2005) needed parts of five seasons in the minors before he broke through. James Paxton (2009) didn’t sign and was redrafted by the Seattle Mariners, only touching the big-leagues in 2013. Marcus Stroman (2012) is the exception, making 20 starts and appearing in 26 games in 2014, a lone home run in between a lot of swing and miss.

Why might Manoah be different?

Well, of the above group, only Romero (sixth) and McGuire (11th) were picked as high or higher than him. One became an all-star, one didn’t, but from a talent perspective, the Blue Jays weren’t going to do much better in that spot. With their second-round pick, No. 52 overall, they aimed for some upside in high-school right-hander Kendall Williams out of the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., whose fastball sits in the low-90s and has touched 94-95.

In due time, we’ll find out if they made the right pick at No. 11, especially since, as Baseball America noted in its scouting report, "the list of major-league starting pitchers who have had success at or near Manoah’s size is short."

[dagger]

Looks like Williams is ready to sign - presumably if the $$$ are right.

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[Cyrus]

Looks like we went with local cdn ontario kid with our 3rd round pick

[wazabifuzz]

https://www.tsn.ca/canada-keeps-pumping-talent-into-big-league-pipelines-1.1315985

from TSN

[dagger]

Looks like we went with local cdn ontario kid with our 3rd round pick

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[Schad]

And back to a familiar well from years past: drafting BC/ON high schoolers means that you're getting players who are really young for their class. Brown doesn't turn 18 until late September...he's one of the youngest players in the draft.

[dagger]

And back to a familiar well from years past: drafting BC/ON high schoolers means that you're getting players who are really young for their class. Brown doesn't turn 18 until late September...he's one of the youngest players in the draft.

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[Schad]

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[Schad]

In the 4th round we picked a kid from Creighton, meaning that he'll go from the Blue Jays to the Blue Jays. Will Robertson has power, is probably a COF/1B, good all-around hitter.

[phillipmike]

Dasan Brown | Rank: 103
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 70 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 45
For the past five Drafts, there has been a high school hitter from Ontario taken in the top two rounds, two being the first-round Naylor brothers. Brown, a super-athletic and a bit raw outfielder from North of the Border, may not go quite that early in June, but he is the best Canadian prospect in this class by far.

Most evaluations on Brown are projections for far off in the future, with interested teams knowing they will have to be patient. He does have solid contact skills from the right side of the plate and he should grow into some raw power. He needs to add strength and has trouble impacting the ball at times as a result, though some scouts point out that Brown was most heavily scouted while facing pro competition this spring. The Texas A&M commit has close to top-of-the-scale speed, which makes him a threat on the basepaths and helps him cover a ton of ground in center field, where he should be a plus defender down the road.

Teams that love players with premium athleticism and a ton of ceiling are likely going to look at Brown in the first three or four rounds. It might take some time, but the payoff could be huge.

Will Robertson | Rank: 81
Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45
As a junior, Robertson hit an extra-inning home run to give Fatima High (Westphalia) the 2015 Missouri state Class 3 baseball championship, but he otherwise drew little attention at his small-town school. After a modest freshman season at Creighton, he made a run at the Big East Conference triple crown in 2018 and continued to produce in the Cape Cod League during the summer. He has been streakier at the plate this spring, costing him a chance to join Chad McConnell (No. 13 overall in 1992) as the only Blue Jays position players ever selected in the first round.

Omaha's TD Ameritrade Park is one of the toughest places to hit a home run in college baseball, yet it hasn't been able to contain Robertson, whose short, quick left-handed stroke and strength give him some of the best power in the 2019 college crop. He lets his home runs come naturally rather than swinging for the fences, making repeated contact that could allow him to hit for average as well. To do so, scouts believe he'll need to get more upright in his stance like he was in the past before getting too spread out as a junior.

Robertson has below-average speed out of the batter's box but is closer to average once he gets going. He needs to improve his defensive instincts and his arm is merely average, so he could shift from right field at Creighton to left field in pro ball. His all-around profile is similar to that of College World Series hero Trevor Larnach, whom the Twins drafted 20th overall out of Oregon State last June, though Larnach had a more impressive junior season.