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Blue Jays attendance woes

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Al_Oliver
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Re: Blue Jays attendance woes 

Post#21 » by Al_Oliver » Thu May 9, 2019 12:03 pm

Tanner wrote:A .500 team would draw more than what we will see this year. Like I said before if we gave 3 year deals to Brantley and Morton for more AAV than they got from Houston and Tampa (to get them to sign), we'd be adding good players for reasonable cost/term. That wouldn't make us a contender, but good players are assets. They help the team in one way or another. Fans wouldn't flock to see Brantley or Morton, but a team that flirts with .500 with Vlad and other prospects on the come up? That looks a lot more desirable to watch.


Why would they choose Toronto over likely playoff teams?
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Re: Blue Jays attendance woes 

Post#22 » by fmradioguy » Thu May 9, 2019 5:49 pm

HangTime wrote:The mlb should reduce the regular season to 100 games. Expand the playoffs, and remove the afternoon start times.


Agreed! Also, make the balls WAY bigger. And orange. Maybe replace the field with a hardwood floor and give EACH team it's own home base (strategically placed opposite to each other.) And replace the batters with nets. I bet it would improve scoring.
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Re: Blue Jays attendance woes 

Post#23 » by Tanner » Thu May 9, 2019 5:52 pm

Al_Oliver wrote:
Tanner wrote:A .500 team would draw more than what we will see this year. Like I said before if we gave 3 year deals to Brantley and Morton for more AAV than they got from Houston and Tampa (to get them to sign), we'd be adding good players for reasonable cost/term. That wouldn't make us a contender, but good players are assets. They help the team in one way or another. Fans wouldn't flock to see Brantley or Morton, but a team that flirts with .500 with Vlad and other prospects on the come up? That looks a lot more desirable to watch.


Why would they choose Toronto over likely playoff teams?


Money and term. Not a lock to get them to sign with an inferior team, but greatly increases the chances.

Brantley signed for 2/32. If the Jays offered 3/45 or 3/48, that's an extra year and $13-16 mil more. In baseball that makes a big difference.
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Re: Blue Jays attendance woes 

Post#24 » by Al_Oliver » Fri May 10, 2019 1:56 pm

Tanner wrote:
Al_Oliver wrote:
Tanner wrote:A .500 team would draw more than what we will see this year. Like I said before if we gave 3 year deals to Brantley and Morton for more AAV than they got from Houston and Tampa (to get them to sign), we'd be adding good players for reasonable cost/term. That wouldn't make us a contender, but good players are assets. They help the team in one way or another. Fans wouldn't flock to see Brantley or Morton, but a team that flirts with .500 with Vlad and other prospects on the come up? That looks a lot more desirable to watch.


Why would they choose Toronto over likely playoff teams?


Money and term. Not a lock to get them to sign with an inferior team, but greatly increases the chances.

Brantley signed for 2/32. If the Jays offered 3/45 or 3/48, that's an extra year and $13-16 mil more. In baseball that makes a big difference.


Neither Florida nor Texas have state tax... so it is a bigger spread than just dollars. Climate is often a factor too as is living in the USA
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Re: Blue Jays attendance woes 

Post#25 » by Schad » Fri May 10, 2019 11:12 pm

Beyond that, and beyond the bit where Morton and Brantley at $20mish a year are somewhat iffy value buys even now...it's also a bit of cherry-picking, because both are off to good starts, and not all of the candidates for a spend-to-reach-77-wins gambit have done similar. I know that you also advocated re-signing Happ, who likely would have cost $60m/3 or some such as well, and is currently being played off-off-Broadway by a klaxon and a giant neon sign reading THIS ENDS BADLY, because his mid/late career velocity spike is officially at an end. That's the essential risk when value-buying old dudes: you're playing minefield hopscotch with Father Time, and the longer you play that game, the more likely it is that you'll have a dead-weight contract eating up 15% of your payroll right when you want to be good again.
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Re: Blue Jays attendance woes 

Post#26 » by Tanner » Sat May 11, 2019 6:03 pm

I mentioned Brantley, Morton, and Happ before the season started. I'm not basing it off their hot starts. Brantley in particular fit this team like a glove, basically helped in every aspect of where this team is poor (OBP, OF, K's, hitting in general).
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Re: Blue Jays attendance woes 

Post#27 » by Schad » Sat May 11, 2019 9:58 pm

Absolutely, I'm just pointing out the downside risk even on three-year deals. Sign Brantley and you get a couple more wins on a bad team, a much larger payroll, and a maybe-asset in a year if he keeps hitting. Sign Happ and, in the hopes of marginally improving the team today, you'd already be wondering if he'll be a serious impediment to being good in 2021. Even in a world where Rogers was willing to spend $150m a year on a bad team for some reason, the benefits don't really outweigh the potential downsides.
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Re: Blue Jays attendance woes 

Post#28 » by dagger » Sun May 12, 2019 4:12 pm

Attenance in baseball is a yin and yang thing. As Schad says, a win or two more, a signing or two more, doesn't move the ticket-selling needle. The Twins went through several seasons in which they weren't seen as a real contender. Yes, they flirted with a wildcard from time to time, but basically they were the Central Division's version of the Jays for many years. Now, they look really solid, with both the hitting and pitching to be a serious playoff threat. Okay, so what happened with attendance> According to a tweet I saw today and which I will endeavour to locate again, they sold over 30,000 tickets the past week - About two thirds of the buyers hadn't bought tickets in more than three years (or more). And this was the first full week of May. The trades they made, the signings they made, the new manager they hired - none of that moved the needle. In April they were a "maybe". But in May, they finally look like a serious team - by winning (although sweeping the Jays might not have been the best yardstick). Fans are coming back only after seeing the team turn into a real winner. We all know the Jays will start filling the Rogers Centre when they turn into real winners - not pretenders, but demonstrated contenders - and any fig leaf they can put on a rebuild will simply not bring fans back in any significant or fiscally justifiable numbers.
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