Meacham, Mordecai, and Horsman are leaving the organization

[Lateral Quicks]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-part-ways-pair-minor-league-managers/

The article says Meacham and Horsman both "parted ways" with the organization, which sounds like they were let go. Mordecai's situation sounds like a, "you can't fire me, I quit!" kind of thing.

Interesting. That's a significant chunk of our upper level managerial base. Perhaps Shapkins haven't been happy with the level of preparedness of the young callups. Or maybe they always intended to bring in more Clevelanders to fill these spots.

[dagger]

We put everything on Shapiro and Atkins, but they have been working to build a strong organization. Maybe this is Ben Cherington's move. Maybe he wants to bring in some of his "Boston buddies". The point is, we should think in wider terms about what's happening in the organization, just as the Raptors are more than Masai, and not every part of that team's success is due to Masai directly, but reflects the input of Webster, Tolzman, etc.

[ratul]

We are 34 games under 0.500 and have no pitching or defense. I'd say the more we fire the better. Get rid of shats.

[SharoneWright]

I'm gonna side with whichever side wanted to extend Vlad and Bo the soonest.

[Metallikid]

I'm gonna side with whichever side wanted to extend Vlad and Bo the soonest.

Forget that noise. Our best shot at winning a World Series is to buy big Free Agents while we're still paying Vlad and Bo pennies.

[Schad]

I'm gonna side with whichever side wanted to extend Vlad and Bo the soonest.

Forget that noise. Our best shot at winning a World Series is to buy big Free Agents while we're still paying Vlad and Bo pennies.

Buying big free agents just isn't what it used to be. Here are all of the contracts of $75m+ signed from the 2015/16 offseason through 2017/18 (as we don't have much data for last year). I've also left out the first Cespedes/Upton contracts, as both opted out really early.

2015/16:

Mike Leake: 5 years, $80m. Has been more or less worth his contract to date, but has been traded twice with the trading team eating money for not much in return, so I'm not sure they'd agree that it was a good deal.

Wei-Yin Chen: 5 years, $80m. Terrible contract.

Jeff Samardzija: 6 years, $90m. Bad contract.

Jordan Zimmermann: 5 years, $110m. Has been atrocious pretty well from the day the ink dried.

Johnny Cueto: 6 years, $130m. Had one good year, then fell off. Terrible contract.

Chris Davis: 7 years, $161m. Arguably the worst contract in baseball history.

Jason Heyward: 8 years, $184m. Has managed two league-average seasons out of four, and only just. And they have four more years to go.

Zack Greinke: 6 years, $206m. Through four seasons, it has been a mild overpay, but nothing too bad.

David Price: 7 years, $217m. Good player, bit of an overpay.

Verdict: one 'not great, but probably worth it', two good players on modest overpays, six dumpster fires.


2016/17:

Kenley Jansen: 4 years, $80m. Had one season of being Kenley Jansen, now he's merely okay. Not a good deal.

Dexter Fowler: 4 years, $83m. Terrible contract.

Aroldis Chapman: 5 years, $86m. Probably about worth it, factoring in leverage.

Yoenis Cespedes: 4 years, $110m. Terrible contract, as Cespedes has broken down.

Verdict: one 'probably worth it' one fairly bad deal, two dumpster fires. Bonus points for Ian Desmond, who didn't quite clear the bar, but got paid $70m and hasn't even cleared replacement-level once.


2017/18:

Jake Arrieta: 3 years, $75m. In sharp decline, hasn't cleared league-average in his first two years. Bad deal.

Lorenzo Cain: 4 years, $80m. Hard to say...he was spectacular in year one, awful in year two. Has been worth it to date on the strength of 2018, but won't be if this is the end of his productive years.

Justin Upton: 6 years, $106m. Has been below replacement-level, and he's only in year two of six. Looking like a terrible deal.

JD Martinez: 5 years, $110m. This is easily the best of the bunch. Has vastly exceeded his contract...might opt out after this year as a result, at which point it basically becomes a stellar two-year deal.

Yu Darvish: 6 years, $126m. Has been an awful contract to date.

Eric Hosmer: 8 years, $144m. Only the Chris Davis deal prevents this from being the worst on the lst.

Verdict: one great deal, one that looks like it could be good (if uneven) value, one bad deal, three dumpster fires.



There are 19 contracts there...of those 19, how many would you sign knowing the outcome? JD Martinez, definitely. Chapman, probably. If you were a team on the cusp, you might sign the Price, Greinke, Leake and Cain deals. Then there are 13 contracts that were millstones pretty well from day one.

Free agent mega-deals don't buy rings these days. Most of the time, they just buy pain.

[Metallikid]

I'm gonna side with whichever side wanted to extend Vlad and Bo the soonest.

Forget that noise. Our best shot at winning a World Series is to buy big Free Agents while we're still paying Vlad and Bo pennies.

Buying big free agents just isn't what it used to be. Here are all of the contracts of $75m+ signed from the 2015/16 offseason through 2017/18 (as we don't have much data for last year). I've also left out the first Cespedes/Upton contracts, as both opted out really early.

2015/16:

Mike Leake: 5 years, $80m. Has been more or less worth his contract to date, but has been traded twice with the trading team eating money for not much in return, so I'm not sure they'd agree that it was a good deal.

Wei-Yin Chen: 5 years, $80m. Terrible contract.

Jeff Samardzija: 6 years, $90m. Bad contract.

Jordan Zimmermann: 5 years, $110m. Has been atrocious pretty well from the day the ink dried.

Johnny Cueto: 6 years, $130m. Had one good year, then fell off. Terrible contract.

Chris Davis: 7 years, $161m. Arguably the worst contract in baseball history.

Jason Heyward: 8 years, $184m. Has managed two league-average seasons out of four, and only just. And they have four more years to go.

Zack Greinke: 6 years, $206m. Through four seasons, it has been a mild overpay, but nothing too bad.

David Price: 7 years, $217m. Good player, bit of an overpay.

Verdict: one 'not great, but probably worth it', two good players on modest overpays, six dumpster fires.


2016/17:

Kenley Jansen: 4 years, $80m. Had one season of being Kenley Jansen, now he's merely okay. Not a good deal.

Dexter Fowler: 4 years, $83m. Terrible contract.

Aroldis Chapman: 5 years, $86m. Probably about worth it, factoring in leverage.

Yoenis Cespedes: 4 years, $110m. Terrible contract, as Cespedes has broken down.

Verdict: one 'probably worth it' one fairly bad deal, two dumpster fires. Bonus points for Ian Desmond, who didn't quite clear the bar, but got paid $70m and hasn't even cleared replacement-level once.


2017/18:

Jake Arrieta: 3 years, $75m. In sharp decline, hasn't cleared league-average in his first two years. Bad deal.

Lorenzo Cain: 4 years, $80m. Hard to say...he was spectacular in year one, awful in year two. Has been worth it to date on the strength of 2018, but won't be if this is the end of his productive years.

Justin Upton: 6 years, $106m. Has been below replacement-level, and he's only in year two of six. Looking like a terrible deal.

JD Martinez: 5 years, $110m. This is easily the best of the bunch. Has vastly exceeded his contract...might opt out after this year as a result, at which point it basically becomes a stellar two-year deal.

Yu Darvish: 6 years, $126m. Has been an awful contract to date.

Eric Hosmer: 8 years, $144m. Only the Chris Davis deal prevents this from being the worst on the lst.

Verdict: one great deal, one that looks like it could be good (if uneven) value, one bad deal, three dumpster fires.



There are 19 contracts there...of those 19, how many would you sign knowing the outcome? JD Martinez, definitely. Chapman, probably. If you were a team on the cusp, you might sign the Price, Greinke, Leake and Cain deals. Then there are 13 contracts that were millstones pretty well from day one.

Free agent mega-deals don't buy rings these days. Most of the time, they just buy pain.

Of course big money contracts are a large risk but that's why you need a front office that can evaluate more than just prospects. If you can pick someone to give a big contract to that will be close to worthwhile who will fill a position for 4-5 years it gives us a lot more certainty going forward and would give us a big name to hopefully eventually convince other Free Agents to come here.

I don't know a full list of free agents but it seems as though J.D. Martinez would be the best available. Plus he's an outfielder.

[wamco]

Think the sweet spot is the 3-4 year 12-15AAV sp which I’d love to see 5 signed

[Schad]

Of course big money contracts are a large risk but that's why you need a front office that can evaluate more than just prospects. If you can pick someone to give a big contract to that will be close to worthwhile who will fill a position for 4-5 years it gives us a lot more certainty going forward and would give us a big name to hopefully eventually convince other Free Agents to come here.

I don't know a full list of free agents but it seems as though J.D. Martinez would be the best available. Plus he's an outfielder.

Look at some of the GMs that signed those deals, though. Hosmer was signed by Preller, who is a good GM (mostly). Theo Epstein signed two of the worst. The Cards, who are generally considered to be a well-run organization, have done terribly in recent years, with Dex Fowler plus Goldschmidt looking like a highly questionable contract (he has rebounded, but generally the first couple years of a contract are the best, and he has barely been worth the final year of his cheaper, older deal). Brett Cecil will have gotten $30m to do sweek fk all.

"Just do thing better than all of the other GMs who have had little success doing thing" is a really hard bar to clear.

JD Martinez also isn't an outfielder in any meaningful sense. He's a 32 year old DH, and if you want to tease out what deals are likely to be atrocious down the road, big-money contracts signed by 32 year old DHs are a good place to start.

[Metallikid]

Of course big money contracts are a large risk but that's why you need a front office that can evaluate more than just prospects. If you can pick someone to give a big contract to that will be close to worthwhile who will fill a position for 4-5 years it gives us a lot more certainty going forward and would give us a big name to hopefully eventually convince other Free Agents to come here.

I don't know a full list of free agents but it seems as though J.D. Martinez would be the best available. Plus he's an outfielder.

Look at some of the GMs that signed those deals, though. Hosmer was signed by Preller, who is a good GM (mostly). Theo Epstein signed two of the worst. The Cards, who are generally considered to be a well-run organization, have done terribly in recent years, with Dex Fowler plus Goldschmidt looking like a highly questionable contract (he has rebounded, but generally the first couple years of a contract are the best, and he has barely been worth the final year of his cheaper, older deal). Brett Cecil will have gotten $30m to do sweek fk all.

"Just do thing better than all of the other GMs who have had little success doing thing" is a really hard bar to clear.

JD Martinez also isn't an outfielder in any meaningful sense. He's a 32 year old DH, and if you want to tease out what deals are likely to be atrocious down the road, big-money contracts signed by 32 year old DHs are a good place to start.

Maybe I've been spoiled by Masai?

I get what you're saying and I find it funny that this is the exact scenario NBA fans think wouldn't happen if you removed the salary cap. People don't realize that without a salary cap the Khris Middletons of the World would just get paid even more and the truly worthwhile max players would get contracts that are not even conceivable by NBA standards.

Back to the point, however, who would you want to sign who is a FA this year or next year? Would you only pay big money for a pitcher?

How do you weigh overpaying for a big FA rather than paying the price in prospects and trading for someone with, let's say, three years on their contract left?

I just think that we're setting ourselves up for failure if Shatkin's plan is to wait out the next two seasons without adding talent to the roster beyond bringing up our AAA players and signing the Matt Shoemakers of the world.

[SharoneWright]

Whatever FA we sign needs to be peaking (or sustaining) in 2-3 year from now. That makes the job even tougher.

[Schad]

Maybe I've been spoiled by Masai?

I get what you're saying and I find it funny that this is the exact scenario NBA fans think wouldn't happen if you removed the salary cap. People don't realize that without a salary cap the Khris Middletons of the World would just get paid even more and the truly worthwhile max players would get contracts that are not even conceivable by NBA standards.

Back to the point, however, who would you want to sign who is a FA this year or next year? Would you only pay big money for a pitcher?

How do you weigh overpaying for a big FA rather than paying the price in prospects and trading for someone with, let's say, three years on their contract left?

I just think that we're setting ourselves up for failure if Shatkin's plan is to wait out the next two seasons without adding talent to the roster beyond bringing up our AAA players and signing the Matt Shoemakers of the world.

I don't doubt that we'll add talent, and we shouldn't forsake the free agent market entirely. But these days, you're better off going for the mid-tier players to fill gaps rather than looking for the big splash on a star: free agents are almost all nearing the end of their primes, because prime years end far earlier than they once did, so getting a league-average addition is a better bet than trying to nail down a star for $30m a year. And if you're going to spend resources, you'd much rather them be going to a 28 year old Bo/Vlad than a 33 year old former star, so extensions that buy out those good early years of FA (and nothing beyond) make a lot of sense.

And while trading has its downsides as well, it's the best way to get players who are at the ages where success happens. We just need to continue to do well in the draft/IFA...which is no simple matter either, obviously.