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What do you think a potential extension would look like for Vlad & Bo?

That boneheaded NHL deal better not interfere with Rogers' ability to spend/get these deals done.

(Not to mention MLSE's ability to pay Siakam et al.)

Now is the time to do it. The CBA expires after 2021 and there could be a lockout. Players might want the security rather than risk the unknown, although the Jays are dealing with sons of millionaires, not like Atlanta where elite young players signed their primes away for a happy meal due to their poor family conditions. The Jays will have to pay up.

Way, way too early. Imagine if we extended Devin Travis after his rookie season and had him under contract for 8 or 9 more years to follow? Or Brett Lawrie? They both looked can’t miss as rookies.

Let them play 3 seasons first, then if things are still going well look to buyout the final 3 years with an extension.

The_Hater wrote:Way, way too early. Imagine if we extended Devin Travis after his rookie season and had him under contract for 8 or 9 more years to follow? Or Brett Lawrie? They both looked can’t miss as rookies.

Let them play 3 seasons first, then if things are still going well look to buyout the final 3 years with an extension.

I'll disagree here. There's risk involved, sure, but that risk is also the only reason they'd be willing to sign an extension that buys out free agent seasons. By the time they've played three seasons, they have far less incentive to extend, as they'll be making arb money (still underpaid, but not paid peanuts) and be closer to free agency.

To have a good, long competitive window, we'll have to make some bets, and betting on Vlad/Bo being productive in their mid 20s sounds like a solid one to me.

Schad wrote:

The_Hater wrote:Way, way too early. Imagine if we extended Devin Travis after his rookie season and had him under contract for 8 or 9 more years to follow? Or Brett Lawrie? They both looked can’t miss as rookies.

Let them play 3 seasons first, then if things are still going well look to buyout the final 3 years with an extension.

I'll disagree here. There's risk involved, sure, but that risk is also the only reason they'd be willing to sign an extension that buys out free agent seasons. By the time they've played three seasons, they have far less incentive to extend, as they'll be making arb money (still underpaid, but not paid peanuts) and be closer to free agency.

To have a good, long competitive window, we'll have to make some bets, and betting on Vlad/Bo being productive in their mid 20s sounds like a solid one to me.

I think the bet the team is making would be way to far into the future though. It’s the same reason you don’t sign players to 8-9 year contracts, it’s usually a terrible decision for the team because so much can go wrong over such a long period. In this case the Jays will already have 5 more years of team control with all their rookies and that’s still a great number.

Bichette has had what, less than 200 Plate appearances? Right now the start of his career looks shockingly similar to that of Brett Lawrie. And Lawrie never posted an .800 OPS again after going .950 at age 21. Travis of course couldn’t stay healthy. Romero? Sanchez? Arencebia? None of the 5 players I just listed even made it into year 7 (Sanchez pending). And we don’t even know what position we’d be paying Guerrero to play. DH possibly? Probably?

The_Hater wrote:I think the bet the team is making would be way to far into the future though. It’s the same reason you don’t sign players to 8-9 year contracts, it’s usually a terrible decision for the team because so much can go wrong over such a long period. In this case the Jays will already have 5 more years of team control with all their rookies and that’s still a great number.

Bichette has had what, less than 200 Plate appearances? Right now the start of his career looks shockingly similar to that of Brett Lawrie. And Lawrie never posted an .800 OPS again after going .950 at age 21. Travis of course couldn’t stay healthy. Romero? Sanchez? Arencebia? None of the 5 players I just listed even made it into year 7 (Sanchez pending). And we don’t even know what position we’d be paying Guerrero to play. DH possibly? Probably?

7-8 year extensions, including options, aren't terribly uncommon with young players anymore. Just this offseason, Albies signed for 8 (including options), Acuna for 9, Lowe for 8, Eloy for 8. I'd sign the Acuna extension ($100m guaranteed over 8, maxes at $117m/10), which potentially buys out 4 FA seasons, without even a second thought.

I'd much rather take this particular risk than have to try to re-sign them at 28 to deals that'd pay them full freight and run through their mid-30s.

One other thing to note, as it might not be terribly well-known...teams can insure contracts against injury:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2016/09/09/worried-about-your-aces-100-million-arm-there-is-insurance-for-that/

It's imperfect, and a bit costly, but neither Bichette/Guerrero have any major preexisting injuries, and insuring their contracts would be a hedge for a few mil over the lifespan of the deals. And if it's a bet purely on performance, it's a good bet: they're elite talents.

Definitely extend them, but they're both not poor, unlike Acuna jr for example. That aspect definitely makes things different.

Would love to have these guys locked up for the best years of their careers.