In the Hall?

[The_Hater]

So which of the following players eventually get voted into the HOF? Which have no chance? Who’s on the fence?

Yadier Molina

Adrian Beltre

Joey Votto

Robinson Cano

[Schad]

Beltre's an easy HOF. Doesn't help that a lot of his value was on the defensive side, but he hung around long enough to have gaudy counting stats, and by both peak and career he's up there with a lot of no-doubt HOF 3Bs.

Yadi Molina probably should be, but the list of HOF catchers is fairly short, and the list of those that made it for their defense is even shorter. However, in making the argument that Yadi should be in the Hall, I'm also effectively making the argument that Brian McCann should be, and that makes me slightly queasy, because **** Brian McCann.

I'll say no on Votto, unless he rebounds and continues playing well for a good 3-4 years. The Hall hasn't been kind to 1B that don't rack up huge HR totals, and much of Votto's value is derived from his OBP. That he could spend his final few years as a millstone won't help.

Cano's most-comparable is probably Jeff Kent, who looks increasingly likely to fall short. So I'd guess that Cano, who doesn't have Kent's MVP, will similarly struggle to get across the line.

[wamco]

Beltre slam dunk
Yadier will get in at some point. Ped logjam will be over
Cano popped for PED so no
Votto will be outside looking in with Delgado

[Skin Blues]

Molina - I think he has a better shot than McCann because he has a notable skill. He was only a good hitter, but the best defensive catcher of his generation, while McCann was merely a very good defensive catcher and a very good hitter. When you compare McCann to guys like Posey/Posada/Piazza, hit bat just doesn't seem that special. Yadi will also probably finish with 500 more hits even though he wasn't as productive a hitter, which will make the offensive gap appear smaller than it is. I think he'll get in.

Beltre is in 100%.

Votto will have to have some more good years, but the rate stats are there. The only two guys to put up a 300/400/500 triple slash and not get voted into the HOF for performance reasons both played most of their careers in Colorado. He's essentially Edgar Martinez with better (or at least existent) defense, so there's not much of a case to leave him out unless he's flat out terrible for the next couple seasons.

Cano should be in based on merit unless he collapses over his final 4 years a la Pujols, but there's the PED issue obviously. He's a quiet guy and not really a villain-type, so I don't know if it'll hurt him like it's hurt Manny/Clemens/Bonds, and I don't find the PED side of the debate all that interesting. So, I say he'll get in eventually. But maybe not. Who knows how the baseball voting hive mind will act a decade from now.

[The_Hater]

Cano should be in based on merit unless he collapses over his final 4 years a la Pujols, but there's the PED issue obviously. He's a quiet guy and not really a villain-type, so I don't know if it'll hurt him like it's hurt Manny/Clemens/Bonds, and I don't find the PED side of the debate all that interesting. So, I say he'll get in eventually. But maybe not. Who knows how the baseball voting hive mind will act a decade from now.

Gotta think that if generational type players such as Bonds, ARod and Clemens aren't getting votes because of PED's that Cano has sealed his own fate as a fringe guy.

[agkagk]

Respectfully disagree on votto.

He’s one of the greatest pure hitters in history and outside of ichiro I can’t think of anyone in the past 15 years or so who is even in his class.

He’s first ballet material in the mold of Paul molitor ... but with more power.

[Schad]

Molitor's primary advantage as a Hall candidate was that he was good for an extraordinarily long time: he was getting MVP votes at 22, and was still a very productive hitter into his late 30s. That's historically been quite an advantage, and while peak Votto is better than peak Molitor, sexy peripherals haven't meant as much as sexy counting stats. Maybe that changes enough by the time Votto's up that his wRC+ gets more attention, but even his WAR is pretty fringy for a HoFer, absent a couple more good years.

[agkagk]

Ya I get it the counting stars aren’t there — but I think or at least hope his reputation and respect throughout all facets of the game (media, fans, admin, scouts, etc....) will push him over.

I mean i don’t think it’s hyperbole to say his rep is just that; greatest pure hitter of his generation.

How does that title not get a guy in?

[SharoneWright]

He’s first ballet material in the mold of Paul molitor ... but with more power.

Agreed.

[Black Watch]

HOF has a lot more to do with fame than it does with merit.

Bobby Abreu is someone I'd vote in, but I can see arguments against him. Still, with the way the HOF voting goes, even in today's era, I wouldn't be surprised to see him dropped off the ballot this month with less than 5%.

[JN]

Respectfully disagree on votto.

He’s one of the greatest pure hitters in history and outside of ichiro I can’t think of anyone in the past 15 years or so who is even in his class.

He’s first ballet material in the mold of Paul molitor ... but with more power.

Paul Molitor got 3300 hits. No one stat matters to Hall of Fame Voters more than getting 3000 hits -- especially 15 years ago.

His case is quite a bit different than Molitor. Not to say he is that far away, as HOF may start to veer from counting stats. 6 seasons in the top 7 in MVP Voting is pretty strong in itself.

[JN]

The big unknown on some of these players, is the second chance veteran committees who have made some odd choices.

When we talk about 3000 hits, people used to discuss what would happen if Harold Baines lasted long enough to get 3000 hits. Would he still get in the hall, or would he be the first excluded with that many hits? That discussion was avoided (so we thought) when he ended up at 2866.

[agkagk]

The big unknown on some of these players, is the second chance veteran committees who have made some odd choices.

When we talk about 3000 hits, people used to discuss what would happen if Harold Baines lasted long enough to get 3000 hits. Would he still get in the hall, or would he be the first excluded with that many hits? That discussion was avoided (so we thought) when he ended up at 2866.

Good comp with babies.

..... votto is 36 and roughly 1000 hits behind him

[agkagk]

The big unknown on some of these players, is the second chance veteran committees who have made some odd choices.

When we talk about 3000 hits, people used to discuss what would happen if Harold Baines lasted long enough to get 3000 hits. Would he still get in the hall, or would he be the first excluded with that many hits? That discussion was avoided (so we thought) when he ended up at 2866.

Good comp with baines.

..... votto is 36 and roughly 1000 hits behind him

[SharoneWright]

The big unknown on some of these players, is the second chance veteran committees who have made some odd choices.

Good chance Joey has a better chance with the committee than with the media...

[JN]

The big unknown on some of these players, is the second chance veteran committees who have made some odd choices.

When we talk about 3000 hits, people used to discuss what would happen if Harold Baines lasted long enough to get 3000 hits. Would he still get in the hall, or would he be the first excluded with that many hits? That discussion was avoided (so we thought) when he ended up at 2866.

Good comp with babies.

..... votto is 36 and roughly 1000 hits behind him

I think my post was not clearly wrote.
Did not mean to compare Votto to Baines. Votto is already a more worthy hall of Famer than Baines -- had many more high impact seasons. Hopefully Baines was just a mistake by the committee, and not some baseline.

I somehow want to see Nick Markakis hang on for another 600 hits, and get to 3,000. (He just turned 36, won a gold glove in 2018 at the age of 34 -- and since he is not a defensive liability can probably hang around as a #3/#4 outfielder for a while if he wants) That would probably be one of the strangest hall of fame cases ever.

[agkagk]

Allow me to elaborate:

Maybe not a good comp, but baines is certainly a good middle ground between the two opinions.

My preconception of votto came from his name recognition not his counting stars which as schad has eluded to; leaves a lot to be desired. Barely 2000 hits and barely 300 homers for a 1st basemen is mediocre for the hall.

Comparing him to Paul molitor as a 1st ballet guy appears to be based on my own cognitive bias and not based on fact.

Vottos numbers are much closer to Carlos Delgado (one and done) than Paul molitor (moon walk backwards, first ballet guy).

But if baines can get in on volume, he may make for a good “indirect” comparable I think.

[agkagk]

Harold baines 162 game avg stat line over 22 years:

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB

62 635 567 74 164 28 3 22 93 2 2 61 82 .289 .356 .465 .820 121 264 17 1 1 6 11

And vottos over 13 years

162 696 574 95 176 38 2 27 89 7 3 111 124 .307 .421 .519 .941 150 298 14 6 0 4 1

...I don’t know if this is favorable to votto

[Schad]

There's no question that Votto has been better than Baines, but it's hard to use Baines as a measuring stick because he was a reeeeeeally strange choice. He fell off the BBWAA ballot without ever exceeding 6.1% in any year's voting; no other Veteran's Committee selection in the modern era did worse with voters. Beyond sheer longevity, Baines has effectively no qualifications; if he's the point of reference, there are literally dozens of hitters who should be in the Hall. The two players immediately following him in career fWAR are Placido Polanco and Aramis Ramirez, and there isn't going to be much debate over their inclusion.

Basically, as far as anyone can tell, Baines got in because an inordinate number of committee members played with/managed Baines, and he's a popular fellow.

[The_Hater]

There's no question that Votto has been better than Baines, but it's hard to use Baines as a measuring stick because he was a reeeeeeally strange choice. He fell off the BBWAA ballot without ever exceeding 6.1% in any year's voting; no other Veteran's Committee selection in the modern era did worse with voters. Beyond sheer longevity, Baines has effectively no qualifications; if he's the point of reference, there are literally dozens of hitters who should be in the Hall. The two players immediately following him in career fWAR are Placido Polanco and Aramis Ramirez, and there isn't going to be much debate over their inclusion.

Basically, as far as anyone can tell, Baines got in because an inordinate number of committee members played with/managed Baines, and he's a popular fellow.

Ya, Baines never should have got in there. On top of everything else he had no defensive value at all and was a full time DH by age 28. He was a very good albeit not great hitter but playing 20+ years certainly helped his counting stats. But he was no Frank Thomas out of the same DH mold.