2019-20 Offseason Thread

[SharoneWright]

Just thinking... with 2020 lost, we could really jump ahead in 2021. Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, Jansen, all stronger.

Additions:

Ryu
Pearson
Kirk
Manoah?
Wood-Richardson?
Groshans?
Hatch?
Connine?

Nice to not have too many long term deals on older vets at this time. We can emerge in 2021 with talent and low payroll.

[BigLeagueChew]

Just thinking... with 2020 lost, we could really jump ahead in 2021. Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, Jansen, all stronger.

Additions:

Ryu
Pearson
Kirk
Manoah?
Wood-Richardson?
Groshans?
Hatch?
Connine?

Nice to not have too many long term deals on older vets at this time. We can emerge in 2021 with talent and low payroll.

Would not say lost yet but it's getting close to looking like aJuneish start for a chance of about 100 games and in a condensed schedule anything could happen. Pitchers don't need to last 6 months, someone like Thornton may no longer need an innings limit
and things like that. Also depends where they cut the schedule , if they conveniently could cut a large portion of our games against the al east or something.

But yeah after this year we pay Tulo 4 mil and that's about it.

[SharoneWright]

Just thinking... with 2020 lost, we could really jump ahead in 2021. Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, Jansen, all stronger.

Additions:

Ryu
Pearson
Kirk
Manoah?
Wood-Richardson?
Groshans?
Hatch?
Connine?

Nice to not have too many long term deals on older vets at this time. We can emerge in 2021 with talent and low payroll.

Would not say lost yet but it's getting close to looking like aJuneish start for a chance of about 100 games and in a condensed schedule anything could happen. Pitchers don't need to last 6 months, someone like Thornton may no longer need an innings limit
and things like that. Also depends where they cut the schedule , if they conveniently could cut a large portion of our games against the al east or something.

But yeah after this year we pay Tulo 4 mil and that's about it.

Right. And Grichy. And that's about it. After that, a clean slate and young burgeoning talent a year closer to their prime (without a 2020 stat line to boost their next deals). A hand that Shatkins should be able to parlay.

[Black Watch]

Just thinking... with 2020 lost, we could really jump ahead in 2021. Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, Jansen, all stronger.

Additions:

Ryu
Pearson
Kirk
Manoah?
Wood-Richardson?
Groshans?
Hatch?
Connine?

Not necessarily. Where are they going to work out? They all have home gyms, probably, but not with batting cages in the backyard.

https://apnews.com/e7ecb6718cf3204aed510a02c047d1c8

“Knowing that so many players are not even having any access to throwing at all or hitting at all, but most importantly just throwing, and probably limited access to just training and exercise, it’s hard to imagine we could get ready in less than four weeks,” Shapiro said in a teleconference with Toronto reporters.

All but three of Toronto’s major league players have left the team’s spring training site in Dunedin, Florida. Those that remain are South Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, Japanese right-hander Shun Yamaguchi and right-hander Rafael Dolis, who is from the Dominican Republic.

Shapiro said the three players “did not have any place to go.” They are the only players who maintain access to Toronto’s Florida facilities.

Ryu is accompanied by his wife, who is seven months pregnant.

Damn...

Some 30 minor league players and four staffers who have been unable to go home are being housed in a Dunedin-area hotel, Shapiro said. Eighteen of those players are from Venezuela, and cannot return home.

Shapiro said Toronto’s big league players have been given individualized workout plans, while minor league players still at the team hotel in Florida have received workouts they can perform in their rooms.

“The physical exercise they can do is as much about mental health and maintaining some semblance of normalcy and routine, and probably a little bit less baseball-specific,” Shapiro said. “There’s almost no one who could maintain game-ready shape in light of circumstances.”

Well said, Shapiro.

[SharoneWright]

Same for David Price and Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson. It's all relative.

Those teams truly lose a year (now!) and emerge with an older and declining (and already paid) roster. This year is not a loss for us, in terms of winning.

When faced with a new landscape, it's an advantage to have new rules/new perspective (rather than being locked into the old paradigm). And lots of gun powder.

[Schad]

Would not say lost yet but it's getting close to looking like aJuneish start for a chance of about 100 games and in a condensed schedule anything could happen. Pitchers don't need to last 6 months, someone like Thornton may no longer need an innings limit
and things like that. Also depends where they cut the schedule , if they conveniently could cut a large portion of our games against the al east or something.

But yeah after this year we pay Tulo 4 mil and that's about it.

I'd be very surprised if there was any professional sports before, I dunno, September. And that's really optimistic. **** is about to get reeeeeeeeally real in the United States, and Canada as well if we don't take drastic action.

[fbalmeida]

The US is being outrageously irresponsible. JT better keep that border closed.

[BigLeagueChew]

Would not say lost yet but it's getting close to looking like aJuneish start for a chance of about 100 games and in a condensed schedule anything could happen. Pitchers don't need to last 6 months, someone like Thornton may no longer need an innings limit
and things like that. Also depends where they cut the schedule , if they conveniently could cut a large portion of our games against the al east or something.

But yeah after this year we pay Tulo 4 mil and that's about it.

I'd be very surprised if there was any professional sports before, I dunno, September. And that's really optimistic. **** is about to get reeeeeeeeally real in the United States, and Canada as well if we don't take drastic action.

Yeah after I posted Canada announced they're withdrawing from the Olympics, which were supposed to be in July.

[BigLeagueChew]

The US is being outrageously irresponsible. JT better keep that border closed.

Has taken a week to explain to people what social distancing is, then had to change the description to physical distancing. But you can see how the various attitudes of people effects the virus.

[Schad]

They're talking now about abandoning the social distancing and sending everyone back to work so as not to badly affect the economy. It's already quite likely that they'll top 1m concurrent cases within the next 14 days...if they actually follow through and relax restrictions, the math gets pretty horrifying in short order.

[BigLeagueChew]

If we let everyone expose themselves to this virus... it won't stop and I think the idea is the costs/supplies of not lowering the curve enough will be even more dramatic to the economy 6 months from now if we don't do anything about everyones health today.

Canada's health leader said something interesting to me, that a breakout is alot like a star, what you're seeing actually happened awhile ago , therefore you need to act now and put the stars light out before it bursts. Trudeau essentially asking everyone to stay home today and enough is enough. The next step they will ramp up police or army.

[Black Watch]

If we let everyone expose themselves to this virus... it won't stop

Not quite. At some point there will be herd immunity.

I'm not saying they should do that, but that's idea Trump is flirting with right now. It will mean many, many deaths, however. He is so clearly looking at how this all affects his re-election campaign, instead of looking at how to save innocent lives. It's a reflection of his narcissism, and it's an absolute disaster about to get even worse.

[BigLeagueChew]

If we let everyone expose themselves to this virus... it won't stop

Not quite. At some point there will be herd immunity.

I'm not saying they should do that, but that's idea Trump is flirting with right now. It will mean many, many deaths, however. He is so clearly looking at how this all affects his re-election campaign, instead of looking at how to save innocent lives. It's a reflection of his narcissism, and it's an absolute disaster about to get even worse.

Would also overload the health care system unless they can find enough masks, ventilators or respirators. That seems weird since he blocked China from the US a month ago.

[Schad]

Not quite. At some point there will be herd immunity.

I'm not saying they should do that, but that's idea Trump is flirting with right now. It will mean many, many deaths, however. He is so clearly looking at how this all affects his re-election campaign, instead of looking at how to save innocent lives. It's a reflection of his narcissism, and it's an absolute disaster about to get even worse.

In general, you're talking 70%+ of the population having gotten it for functional herd immunity. The more contagious the virus, the higher it gets. Polio's not exceptionally contagious; it's over 80%. Measles are exceptionally contagious; it's about 95%. I'd imagine you'd need 85-90% of the population exposed to COVID to get there.

Source: my younger sister spent a few months as an anti-vaxxer, and I got very familiar with the statistics and explaining the free rider problem while trying not to scream.

[SharoneWright]

USA positives relatively higher due to focus on getting tests out.

China must be laughing their butts off. They'd happily shoot 50,000 dissidents for free, and yet the USA and the rest of the world will tank the entire economy to the tune of TRILLIONS of dollars to try to save the lives of the old and vulnerable. Just a different mentality in the West. Be grateful you live here.

[Schad]

USA positives relatively higher due to focus on getting tests out.

They're testing less than just about anyone at the moment. Which is the scary part.

China must be laughing their butts off. They'd happily shoot 50,000 dissidents for free, and yet the USA and the rest of the world will tank the entire economy to the tune of TRILLIONS of dollars to try to save the lives of the old and vulnerable. Just a different mentality in the West. Be grateful you live here.

The entire economy is going to tank regardless. Not a lot of business happens when 10-15% of the population requires hospitalization over a period of 2-4 months. It's just about being able to pick up the pieces thereafter.

[BigLeagueChew]

USA positives relatively higher due to focus on getting tests out.

They're testing less than just about anyone at the moment. Which is the scary part.

China must be laughing their butts off. They'd happily shoot 50,000 dissidents for free, and yet the USA and the rest of the world will tank the entire economy to the tune of TRILLIONS of dollars to try to save the lives of the old and vulnerable. Just a different mentality in the West. Be grateful you live here.

The entire economy is going to tank regardless. Not a lot of business happens when 10-15% of the population requires hospitalization over a period of 2-4 months. It's just about being able to pick up the pieces thereafter.

Yeah one of the problems is not enough tests. Everyone in Korea could get tested, then anyone infected was quarantined, end of curve.

Also the number of countries involved has jumped. They're are 20-27ish countries without the virus out of 195.

We put a man on the moon but not enough masks or kits.

[Skin Blues]

For what it's worth, here is the data on new confirmed cases (based on day of symptoms onset) from the Government of Canada as of yesterday at 11AM.



I'm not an expert, but it looks like new daily cases peaked on March 11th. If it was spiraling out of control, wouldn't the daily rate of new cases still be increasing exponentially? Yesterday a whole lot of cases were added to Canada's total, but that was from Quebec which hadn't been reporting consistently ("Quebec has 628 confirmed of COVID-19. There were 219 confirmed cases as of March 22. Cases that tested positive by hospital laboratories were now considered confirmed as of March 22, which accounted for the significant increase.") So they were not all diagnosed yesterday, they just weren't reported until yesterday. I understand we need to take it seriously, and we don't want people to become complacent, but it seems we're on a pretty good path compared to other countries.

[Schad]

We are on a good path as far as I can tell. A lot of that is sheer dumb luck; by the time it reached us in significant numbers, we had the luxury of seeing what worked/didn't work in other countries. It's still likely to get pretty scary here, because the lag time with the disease is such that we're probably going to get a ramp-up in a week or two as all of the people returning from holiday (and all of the people they infect) will see the numbers climb pretty rapidly.

But we're not Italy, and we're not Spain, and we're not whatever horrifying path the US is on, and thank goodness for that.

[Skin Blues]

The maximum lag time from contracting COVID to testing positive is 7 days (according to the government) and usually a lot quicker. And we've been dropping for the past 13 days. Some people got back from holidays over the weekend, but the paranoia really began 12 days ago on Friday the 13th, which should have helped mitigate community spread from the morons who thought a vacation during a global pandemic was a good idea.

I think the government is exaggerating how bad it is, in order to play it safe. Which is probably a good thing, because if they had said "no worries folks, it looks like we're well past the inflection point" then it's a lot harder to convince people to keep up the effort for another 2 weeks, which is essential to really stop the spread. In the same way that you need to finish taking your antibiotics prescription even after your symptoms disappear.

I also think the major portion of the shutdown will be over on April 5th. Schools will probably remain closed though because the trade-off there is much smaller and the costs are much more short-term. But non-essential business will be back up and running and daily life will be mostly back to normal. Although, I really hope my employer realizes how smoothly we transitioned to working from home. That could be the one silver lining from all of this.