Your 2020 offseason FA plan

[Schad]

Did this before and people seemed to like it, and it's slow, so why not. The rules are:

You have $40m in 2020 to spend.

Use the contract AAVs/lengths from MLB Trade Rumours projections, which are here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

All contracts assumed to be flat...ie., a 3 year, $30m deal is $10m in each year, no back-loading.

Free agents only, because otherwise it'll devolve into arguments over whether a trade is fair or not (hint: they're never fair).

Any FA who isn't in the top 50 is presumed to be available for the cost of the 50th-biggest contract on the list...so, 1 year, $3m.


Hyun-Jin Ryu, 3 years, $18m AAV. A risk/reward play: when healthy, Ryu is one of the better pitchers out there, but he has a lot of miles on the clock going back to his days in Japan, and a number of injuries in the rear-view mirror. A gamble on getting a #1 starter without paying them through the next century.

Mike Moustakas, 2 years, $10m AAV. Useful multi-position power bat who could take 3B if we slide Vlad to 1B, or could likely be a 1B/2B with Biggio seeing some time in LF.

Shogo Akiyama, 2 years, $3m AAV. Cheap CF option with a good risk/reward profile, given that he'd have control years after. Bit old, but probably gives you a backup option with a chance to start.

Pedro Strop, 1 year, $5m AAV. Bounce-back relief candidate who suffered from an atypical home run binge in 2019.

Martin Perez, 1 year, $3m AAV. Perez has always had a good arm, but lasts consistency and has not done well with the juiced ball. But as a multi-inning lefty reliever he could be a real weapon, which is where he'd be slotting in here.



Overall, the focus is on flexibility: those players should boost us in 2020, but they're also potential trade bait if we decide that the team isn't ready to compete. Ryu gives us the frontline starter that we need, Moustakas gives us a consistently above-average bat, and the rest provide a bit of a boost to our OF/RP depth.

[Black Watch]

This is also a good resource for those interested in participating in this fun little exercise: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

[billy_hoyle]

Easy.

Gerrit Cole and Drew Pomeranz (used as high leverage reliever).

Try and extend Drew or flip him if he remains healthy.

[Wo1verine]

Cole $32M AAV
$8M AAV on relievers.

Improve the hitting the following off-season.

Need to build this thing with at least one ace which Cole is obviously - Nobody in free Agency the next couple years that's comparable is available so pull the trigger now.

MLSE is paying Lowry and Siakam $30M AAV each so why not with Cole? Yes, longer deal but that's free agency for ya.

[billy_hoyle]

What I do find interesting is that a Top 10 payroll will be on avg ~$180m.

If we had that extra $120m.

You could do:
Cole
Pomeranz
Strasburg
Wheeler
Ozuna
Moose

SP:
Cole
Strasburg
Wheeler
Pearson
Anderson

Long relief/injury insurance:
Borucki, Thorton, Wag, Kay, Zeuch,
Relief:
SRF, Romano, Pannone, Merryweather

8th, 9th:
Pomeranz
Giles

Position players:
C- Jansen, McGuire
3B- Vlad
SS- Bo
2B- Biggio
1B- Moose
DH- Teoscar
LF- Lourdes
CF- Grichuk
RF- Ozuna

Bench- Drury, McKinney, Fisher, Alford, Urena,Tellez

Is that a contender?

[dagger]

What I do find interesting is that a Top 10 payroll will be on avg ~$180m.

If we had that extra $120m.

You could do:
Cole
Pomeranz
Strasburg
Wheeler
Ozuna
Moose

SP:
Cole
Strasburg
Wheeler
Pearson
Anderson

Long relief/injury insurance:
Borucki, Thorton, Wag, Kay, Zeuch,
Relief:
SRF, Romano, Pannone, Merryweather

8th, 9th:
Pomeranz
Giles

Position players:
C- Jansen, McGuire
3B- Vlad
SS- Bo
2B- Biggio
1B- Moose
DH- Teoscar
LF- Lourdes
CF- Grichuk
RF- Ozuna

Bench- Drury, McKinney, Fisher, Alford, Urena,Tellez

Is that a contender?

The problem is that signing the aforementioned to run up to $180 million - assuming you could get even one of the top tier to come here to a crappy team/high tax situation - is that you'd nicely pair the declining years of said top tier players with the extension demands of your best young players. So you'd either sail well over $220 million and pay a lot of tax for a team that might no longer be a real contender - like where Boston finds itself right now - or you'd be dumping one or more of the good young players to get payroll down. There is a reason why Mookie Betts may be on the trade talks and there is speculation Boston might add Andrew Benentendi as a carrot to take on someone like David Price and his $96 million in remaining salary.

Secondarily, even if you signed all of the aforementioned top tier players, the recovery in ticket sales will inevitably lag the improvement in the W/L record. It always does. So the team you describe would lose a crapload of money before it breaks even.

[dagger]

Cole $32M AAV
$8M AAV on relievers.

Improve the hitting the following off-season.

Need to build this thing with at least one ace which Cole is obviously - Nobody in free Agency the next couple years that's comparable is available so pull the trigger now.

MLSE is paying Lowry and Siakam $30M AAV each so why not with Cole? Yes, longer deal but that's free agency for ya.

Cole has told teammate he wants to go West, not East. According to that teammate, Cole will almost certainly end up "west of Nevada." That's the issue with top tier free agents. They can not only command big money, they can pick their preferred lifestyle.

[Schad]

The problem is that signing the aforementioned to run up to $180 million - assuming you could get even one of the top tier to come here to a crappy team/high tax situation - is that you'd nicely pair the declining years of said top tier players with the extension demands of your best young players. So you'd either sail well over $220 million and pay a lot of tax for a team that might no longer be a real contender - like where Boston finds itself right now - or you'd be dumping one or more of the good young players to get payroll down. There is a reason why Mookie Betts may be on the trade talks and there is speculation Boston might add Andrew Benentendi as a carrot to take on someone like David Price and his $96 million in remaining salary.

Secondarily, even if you signed all of the aforementioned top tier players, the recovery in ticket sales will inevitably lag the improvement in the W/L record. It always does. So the team you describe would lose a crapload of money before it breaks even.

Yeah, that team would implode really, really quickly. We'd get maybe two competitive seasons before it would need to be stripped for parts to prevent payroll from blowing past $250m, something Rogers ain't never going to do.

[phillipmike]

Jays have multiple arms, i want to leave it wide open for someone to win a spot in the pen. If not then you can get some cheap arms at the deadline like a Daniel Hudson or a Phelps. The hitting should get better on its own with Vladdy, Bichette, Biggio, Gurriel, Tellez and Jansen taking the next steps. Grichuk should provide some insulation, i add one specific OF and a power bat to raise the floor of the team. Jays had the 11th best wRC+ from June 1st onwards. I want short term bats.

Rick Porcello - 1 year 11M
Has success in the AL East, eats innings and a Cherington guy. Top 10 in soft contact

Brett Gardner - 1 year 10M
AL East, playoff tested, LHB as a lead off guy who can be a table setter with power and can play CF. 8th best CF WAR and 11th best wRC+ from CFers.

Edwin Encarnacion - 1 year 8M
AL East, Jays alum, power, fan favorite and a replacement for Smoak.

Delin Betances - 1 year 7M
See a trend, AL East closer looking to regain some value. He can with closing time with the Jays. I assume Giles might be dealt in the off-season.

Michael Wacha - 1 year 6M
Yeah im cheating, i spend 42M not 40M but Wacha is the same age as Marcus Stroman and can throw 93.

These deals raise the floor of the team without taking away from the financial flexibility. If the Jays contend and the these players are great then you have QO options, if we arent contenders then you have trade chips.

Porcello
Anderson
Thornton
Wacha/Shoemaker
Thornton/Kay/Borucki/Waguespack

Betances
Law
Pannone
Gaviglio

C: Jansen (R)
1B: Tellez (L)
2B: Biggio (L)
SS: Bichette (R)
3B: Guerrero (R)
RF: Grichuk (R)
CF: Gardner (L)
LF: Gurriel (R)
DH: Encarnacion (R)

Bench: Maile/McGuire, Drury, Urena, and Hernandez/Fisher/Alford

Pitching should give the Jays enough insulation on the young players which will help develop Pearson, Thornton, Kay, Borucki and potentially Zeuch at their pace in 2020 for a full season in 2021. Like the Twins, i raise the floor of the team to put you in a position just in case everything hits, if not you have some real trade chips.

[billy_hoyle]

What I do find interesting is that a Top 10 payroll will be on avg ~$180m.

If we had that extra $120m.

You could do:
Cole
Pomeranz
Strasburg
Wheeler
Ozuna
Moose

SP:
Cole
Strasburg
Wheeler
Pearson
Anderson

Long relief/injury insurance:
Borucki, Thorton, Wag, Kay, Zeuch,
Relief:
SRF, Romano, Pannone, Merryweather

8th, 9th:
Pomeranz
Giles

Position players:
C- Jansen, McGuire
3B- Vlad
SS- Bo
2B- Biggio
1B- Moose
DH- Teoscar
LF- Lourdes
CF- Grichuk
RF- Ozuna

Bench- Drury, McKinney, Fisher, Alford, Urena,Tellez

Is that a contender?

The problem is that signing the aforementioned to run up to $180 million - assuming you could get even one of the top tier to come here to a crappy team/high tax situation - is that you'd nicely pair the declining years of said top tier players with the extension demands of your best young players. So you'd either sail well over $220 million and pay a lot of tax for a team that might no longer be a real contender - like where Boston finds itself right now - or you'd be dumping one or more of the good young players to get payroll down. There is a reason why Mookie Betts may be on the trade talks and there is speculation Boston might add Andrew Benentendi as a carrot to take on someone like David Price and his $96 million in remaining salary.

Secondarily, even if you signed all of the aforementioned top tier players, the recovery in ticket sales will inevitably lag the improvement in the W/L record. It always does. So the team you describe would lose a crapload of money before it breaks even.

First, you're worried about contracts 5yrs from now. For young players that might still just be 'pretty good'. That's just crazy to me. On that note, all of Ozuna, Wheeler, Moose, Pomeranz expire by then. I'd expect some of the kids in our farm will take their place cheaply in order to keep us competitive.

You're worried about having to pay 35 yr old Cole $32m a year, and 36 yr old Strasburg $30m? For like 3 and 1yr, respectively. Look what Grienke, Scherzer and Verlander are doing right now. (I'm aware that King Felix is done like Pujols, and that there is a risk to committing big money to pitchers, but come on, you got to pay to play.)

Boston won the world series. Enough said. Nothing lasts forever, look at the Warriors right now.

You seem to think this team won't win. I think it would. Money follows winning for the BJs. That much is definately true. Plus there will be an initial sales boost for that FA haul. Just like after the Marlins trade. Sales went down when they weren't very good, but initially they sold some seats. Plus, I think actually winning has changed some fans in TO. We expect to win with good teams. Those early AA teams hadn't achieved any success, the fans only knew 20yrs of losing.

Or you could waste all the cheap years of our young players, watch them get frustrated with losing because the best pitcher they played with over the 5yrs here was traded in their rookie year. Watch them walk in FA, because, well we can't afford to pay them market value, how can we do that when we have young players up for extension right when they're going to be coming into their decline years...

Rinse repeat.

[Schad]

Boston won the world series. Enough said. Nothing lasts forever, look at the Warriors right now.

You seem to think this team won't win. I think it would. Money follows winning for the BJs. That much is definately true. Plus there will be an initial sales boost for that FA haul. Just like after the Marlins trade. Sales went down when they weren't very good, but initially they sold some seats. Plus, I think actually winning has changed some fans in TO. We expect to win with good teams. Those early AA teams hadn't achieved any success, the fans only knew 20yrs of losing.

Or you could waste all the cheap years of our young players, watch them get frustrated with losing because the best pitcher they played with over the 5yrs here was traded in their rookie year. Watch them walk in FA, because, well we can't afford to pay them market value, how can we do that when we have young players up for extension right when they're going to be coming into their decline years...

Boston winning the World Series with a three-year peak was, statistically, a coin flip at best. Us winning the World Series with that team in two years would be even more unlikely. That's a much-improved team, sure; you've still added less than 20 fWAR over the incumbents. And while 20 fWAR is a lot, it's only enough that you've created an extraordinary payroll bomb in order to make us a team with a good shot at the Wild Card/outside shot at the division.

Spending $180m to try to turn a 67 win team into an instant Series contender is a highly dubious play, but it's far more dubious if you're going to have to tear it down before half of our roster reaches age 25. And that's to say nothing about the fact that free agency ultimately involves people, and people make their own choices...and those choices aren't often to join the Blue Jays.

[billy_hoyle]

Boston won the world series. Enough said. Nothing lasts forever, look at the Warriors right now.

You seem to think this team won't win. I think it would. Money follows winning for the BJs. That much is definately true. Plus there will be an initial sales boost for that FA haul. Just like after the Marlins trade. Sales went down when they weren't very good, but initially they sold some seats. Plus, I think actually winning has changed some fans in TO. We expect to win with good teams. Those early AA teams hadn't achieved any success, the fans only knew 20yrs of losing.

Or you could waste all the cheap years of our young players, watch them get frustrated with losing because the best pitcher they played with over the 5yrs here was traded in their rookie year. Watch them walk in FA, because, well we can't afford to pay them market value, how can we do that when we have young players up for extension right when they're going to be coming into their decline years...

Boston winning the World Series with a three-year peak was, statistically, a coin flip at best. Us winning the World Series with that team in two years would be even more unlikely. That's a much-improved team, sure; you've still added less than 20 fWAR over the incumbents. And while 20 fWAR is a lot, it's only enough that you've created an extraordinary payroll bomb in order to make us a team with a good shot at the Wild Card/outside shot at the division.

Spending $180m to try to turn a 67 win team into an instant Series contender is a highly dubious play, but it's far more dubious if you're going to have to tear it down before half of our roster reaches age 25. And that's to say nothing about the fact that free agency ultimately involves people, and people make their own choices...and those choices aren't often to join the Blue Jays.

Ya, I honestly think alot of what you say here is conjecture. Why 2yrs? Why only use 20fwar without including any improvement estimates for our young guys. What is the way to achieve a world series if it's not to add the best players available?

Is a world series ever guaranteed? Well no. Look at the Astros this year.

I'm expecting internal growth from ALL our young players. If those guys don't produce better, well how do you get better? What's the alternative? You wanna trade Vlad, Bo and Biggio for Bregman, and Correa? Trade potential for mature players that produced last year, and can be better bets to produce for this coming year? Will that change your 20 FWAR calc enough to be worth it? I'd chance the internal growth.

That Ryu plus moose team wins 80 games tops. What then? How do you get better? Hope that internal options all turn into stars? My option at least lessens the burden on those young players to all go super Saiyan.

The fact you can add the best pitching talent in the league for just money, while we have (arguably) the best crop of young position players in the league that just finished their first cheap year, all while maintaining our prospect base, that is a perfect storm.

Yet, there are STILL people arguing that that's too risky, or that it will blow up in our face, and if we can't guarantee 3 straight world series wins we shouldn't do it.

Of course the players choose, but I personally think that having SUPER hyped young position players (Vlad and Bo) is a great selling feature for FA pitchers. It doesn't hurt that Stras and Cole have the same agent and you can pitch them together on the holistic vision.

But ya, settle for mediocrity in FA. That way we can use our prospect capital to gain the aces we need via trade. That worked for creating sustainable success for AA. Or are you expecting to draft them?

[wamco]

Are we assuming remaining options are picked up like shoemaker and rest of players are tenderest?

[Schad]

Ya, I honestly think alot of what you say here is conjecture. Why 2yrs? Why only use 20fwar without including any improvement estimates for our young guys. What is the way to achieve a world series if it's not to add the best players available?

Because after two years, we have to start paying the kids, at which point we'd need to pay a payroll well exceeding $200m, which is simply not realistic. Even $180m is not likely to be realistic.

And I am including improvement from the young guys. That's why we have a chance at all. Adding 18 wins wouldn't have even had us in the Wild Card conversation.

Is a world series ever guaranteed? Well no. Look at the Astros this year.

And that's why you build a team that can compete over a longer period, rather than going with orgiastic spending that means you'll have to blow up the team in short order. A two-year competitive window with the Yankees in the division means that we might, if we're lucky, have a 1 in 5 chance of winning a title.

I'm expecting internal growth from ALL our young players. If those guys don't produce better, well how do you get better? What's the alternative? You wanna trade Vlad, Bo and Biggio for Bregman, and Correa? Trade potential for mature players that produced last year, and can be better bets to produce for this coming year? Will that change your 20 FWAR calc enough to be worth it? I'd chance the internal growth.

No, I want to ensure that the last several years of their team control, when they're in their primes, are competitive. And I want to ensure that we have some shot at actually retaining them, which we won't if we're paying the best part of $75m to guys who are no longer top-calibre players.

That Ryu plus moose team wins 80 games tops. What then? How do you get better? Hope that internal options all turn into stars? My option at least lessens the burden on those young players to all go super Saiyan.

Continue to build a team through a combination of signings, trades and internal development, rather than throw money at the least efficient means for building a competitive team, namely free agency.

The fact you can add the best pitching talent in the league for just money, while we have (arguably) the best crop of young position players in the league that just finished their first cheap year, all while maintaining our prospect base, that is a perfect storm.

Yet, there are STILL people arguing that that's too risky, or that it will blow up in our face, and if we can't guarantee 3 straight world series wins we shouldn't do it.

Of course the players choose, but I personally think that having SUPER hyped young position players (Vlad and Bo) is a great selling feature for FA pitchers. It doesn't hurt that Stras and Cole have the same agent and you can pitch them together on the holistic vision.

But ya, settle for mediocrity in FA. That way we can use our prospect capital to gain the aces we need via trade. That worked for creating sustainable success for AA. Or are you expecting to draft them?

I've been around this board long enough that I've seen this Every. Single. Year. For more than a decade. Every offseason, the solution is to throw a huge pile of money at free agents. And shortly thereafter, people conveniently forget that they thought the solution was a megadeal for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols or FA Yu Darvish or trading for 33 year old Joey Votto or whatever other sack of magic beans people latched on to as the solution to all of our problems. If the Jays board had its way, we'd have a $300m payroll, would win 70 games and have a team whose average age was approximately that of a Bruce Springsteen concert.

[wamco]

With 40m I’d do

Moose 2/20
Teheran , Roark and Gibson 2/18
Thames 1/3

Teheran
Roark
Gibson
Shoemaker
Kay

Bullpen ; remaining and internal

Bo as
Biggio 2b
Moose 3b
Vlad 1b/dh
Thames 1b/dh
Guirriel lf
Grichuk rf
Jansen c
Teo/fisher cf/dh

I’d also nontender s hitbag drury and give1/3 to sogard. Basically a wash money wise

[wamco]

If I only had 40 m - I wouldn’t do chase Anderson for 8.5m and I don’t think Atkins would either

[raptorsfan2018]

I’d go Wheeler at $20, Tsutsugo at $3, Keuchel at $13 and the last 4 on more pen help.

[raptorsfan2018]

If I only had 40 m - I wouldn’t do chase Anderson for 8.5m and I don’t think Atkins would either

I think they’re going to spend much more than $40.

[wamco]

I think so too. I’m gonna say 110m payroll. Are we projected at 60m now including arbitration? Some of these prices seem on the lowww end

[wamco]

In an ideal world I’d love to see roster spots for hunter pence and Todd Frazier to be around the young core at 1/3 deals. Some of the drury/tellez could hang in Buffalo to start the year