Do Jays Have the Worst Pitching Staff in The League?

[rrdjutriurt]

Since pitching is eighty percent of the game, seems like Jay's management didn't get the memo. The Jays have spent way too many years building an offence and making pitching an afterthought. This team no matter how much offence, will not win if they don't mark a huge improvement in their arms department.

They pretty much gave away Strohman, Sanchez and Biagini for little and tried to do the same late season with their decent quality closer in Ken Giles. The only department we were top of the league in was save percentage. I for one was also never a fan of making Sanchez a starting pitcher. That was a failed experiment and he has never recovered since. He just didn't seem to have the endurance for that role and could not seem to stay healthy. Looks like it's going to be another long season of high scoring but poor pitching lost games, unless something drastic happens with the Jays pitching.

[Duffman100]

Not sure I'd really focus on guys like Sanchez and Biagini.

[Schad]

Pitching most decidedly isn't 80% of the game. While it is generally considered a more important factor than hitting, as it's less variable (when they aren't getting injured), the correlation ain't quite that strong.

As for whether we have the worst pitching staff, we aren't close, because the Orioles exist.

[dagger]

Not sure I'd really focus on guys like Sanchez and Biagini.

And it's not like we were winning with any of the guys we traded, while picking up prospects like Kay and Wood Richardson who have a chance to be major leaguers before much longer. And if anyone really misses Sanchez, well, he's an FA.

[phillipmike]

Not even close;

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,d

Jays were 20-22nd in all major pitching categories. Even if you remove Stroman they are the 5th-6th worse.

Should be better with full seasons from Borucki and Shoemaker. Thornton and Waguespack potentially taking a step forward. Anderson giving solid major league arm. And the Jays are likely to add at least one pitcher better than anyone in their current rotation, maybe two. Not to mention Pearson and Kay.

Jays are probably somewhere near the top of the bottom third in terms of pitching. After offseason moves they should be in the middle of the pack.

[BigLeagueChew]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/phillips-reality-is-there-s-a-bit-of-a-hurdle-to-get-mlb-players-to-come-to-toronto~1848973?fbclid=IwAR1O7Kj3-GuM-0Hg9Vm5kH_ghMXEaFO7XgmvIn4ycNUs8-SVuqY0dM4FxbA

Even overdrive thinks we have the worst pitching staff.

The AA era wasn't even free agency driven. Amazes me people think the only way we can uprade is signing free agents.

[The_Hater]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/phillips-reality-is-there-s-a-bit-of-a-hurdle-to-get-mlb-players-to-come-to-toronto~1848973?fbclid=IwAR1O7Kj3-GuM-0Hg9Vm5kH_ghMXEaFO7XgmvIn4ycNUs8-SVuqY0dM4FxbA

Even overdrive thinks we have the worst pitching staff.

The AA era wasn't even free agency driven. Amazes me people think the only way we can uprade is signing free agents.

It’s obviously not the the only way, but he Jays do have money to spend so it is a good way to plug a couple of holes this winter while waiting for some young arms to mature

[SharoneWright]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/phillips-reality-is-there-s-a-bit-of-a-hurdle-to-get-mlb-players-to-come-to-toronto~1848973?fbclid=IwAR1O7Kj3-GuM-0Hg9Vm5kH_ghMXEaFO7XgmvIn4ycNUs8-SVuqY0dM4FxbA

Even overdrive thinks we have the worst pitching staff.

The AA era wasn't even free agency driven. Amazes me people think the only way we can uprade is signing free agents.

It’s obviously not the the only way, but he Jays do have money to spend so it is a good way to plug a couple of holes this winter while waiting for some young arms to mature

OK sure. But the only way for the Jays to ever be really elite is not to spend dollars on someone's past performance, but to bet on their own young talent with long term risk/reward contracts. We have a unique group of talented young players and a unique opportunity, considering the number of years of control we hold, to leverage long term deals for value. It's gonna take some balls, but that's job #1 in my book. At that point we can see what money's left over and make a few additions as our young guys start to peak. No way I'm going to spend impactful dollars on a pitcher right now in advance of the core or at the expense of the core. Not the time to get distracted or stray from the plan imo. Build the foundation before adding the deck. It's also going to help us find out how high (and how often) we might need to go in free agency after we see some our middling arms either take a step forward or backward this year.

[BigLeagueChew]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/phillips-reality-is-there-s-a-bit-of-a-hurdle-to-get-mlb-players-to-come-to-toronto~1848973?fbclid=IwAR1O7Kj3-GuM-0Hg9Vm5kH_ghMXEaFO7XgmvIn4ycNUs8-SVuqY0dM4FxbA

Even overdrive thinks we have the worst pitching staff.

The AA era wasn't even free agency driven. Amazes me people think the only way we can uprade is signing free agents.

It’s obviously not the the only way, but he Jays do have money to spend so it is a good way to plug a couple of holes this winter while waiting for some young arms to mature

OK sure. But the only way for the Jays to ever be really elite is not to spend dollars on someone's past performance, but to bet on their own young talent with long term risk/reward contracts. We have a unique group of talented young players and a unique opportunity, considering the number of years of control we hold, to leverage long term deals for value. It's gonna take some balls, but that's job #1 in my book. At that point we can see what money's left over and make a few additions as our young guys start to peak. No way I'm going to spend impactful dollars on a pitcher right now in advance of the core or at the expense of the core. Not the time to get distracted or stray from the plan imo. Build the foundation before adding the deck. It's also going to help us find out how high (and how often) we might need to go in free agency after we see some our middling arms either take a step forward or backward this year.

I think under AA at this point of the rebuild we pulled the Reyes, Buerhle, Johnson trade. We were coming off the year where a bunch of pitchers were hurt but we needed innings eaters that were at least average. That would be a good starting point again.

[Black Watch]

I agree with those in favour of forbearance, but let's not forget that it's becoming easier these days to just build a pitcher—especially with advancement in pitch design, velocity improvement—pitching science is definitely ahead of hitting science. So the need to sign a marquee SP is less so than before, as we can tweak some normie FA SPs to become above-average (or if we get lucky, some above-average SPs to become elite, like the Astros did with Cole).

Every organization is doing this—it's not just Trevor Bauer anymore. Scouting reports now look very different from even just a few years ago. The way teams develop pitchers today is by looking at actual pitch characteristics, and swing characteristics, and matching them up saying 'this pitch on this plane that you possess is a blind spot for this hitter and this swing.' Nobody uses the old scouting reports of 'he hits x amount on fastballs in this area' because not all fastballs are created equal.

With this new approach, you're going to catch more lightning in more bottles, but because hitters will adjust we won't be seeing the sort of SP careers we used to see. For years it was RPs who were fungible, but with fewer SPs pitching fewer innings (this year only 15 SPs totalled 200+ innings; in 2018 it was only 13), the roles of starters and relievers are being blended together now.

Add on the very real injury risk (a concern felt now more than ever before, as evidenced by the fact that only 3 HS pitchers were taken in the first round of this year's draft—the fewest in over a decade) and you begin to understand why they say there's no such thing as a pitching prospect.

That's why it's foolish to bank on development alone, just as it's foolish to just sign expensive SPs in the FA market. That's why the Jays are going to continue stockpiling arms in the minors, and also go dumpster diving in the lower middle tier of this year's FA class.

[SharoneWright]

I'd also make sure our MLB scouting staff was fully resourced. Dealing for established MBL arms with untapped potential is a great and inexpensive way to bump your staff. Easier said than done I know, but if each team has a break out candidate or two (or a guy you think can be "built"),,, the trick is to see it before the other guys.

If our pro scouting staff has a strong hunch on a guy,, I don't think too many people on this board would complain about Grichuk or McKinney or Fisher or Hernandez or Drury or Alford for X. Nothing wrong with hitting a few singles or doubles.

[The_Hater]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/phillips-reality-is-there-s-a-bit-of-a-hurdle-to-get-mlb-players-to-come-to-toronto~1848973?fbclid=IwAR1O7Kj3-GuM-0Hg9Vm5kH_ghMXEaFO7XgmvIn4ycNUs8-SVuqY0dM4FxbA

Even overdrive thinks we have the worst pitching staff.

The AA era wasn't even free agency driven. Amazes me people think the only way we can uprade is signing free agents.

It’s obviously not the the only way, but he Jays do have money to spend so it is a good way to plug a couple of holes this winter while waiting for some young arms to mature

OK sure. But the only way for the Jays to ever be really elite is not to spend dollars on someone's past performance, but to bet on their own young talent with long term risk/reward contracts. We have a unique group of talented young players and a unique opportunity, considering the number of years of control we hold, to leverage long term deals for value. It's gonna take some balls, but that's job #1 in my book. At that point we can see what money's left over and make a few additions as our young guys start to peak. No way I'm going to spend impactful dollars on a pitcher right now in advance of the core or at the expense of the core. Not the time to get distracted or stray from the plan imo. Build the foundation before adding the deck. It's also going to help us find out how high (and how often) we might need to go in free agency after we see some our middling arms either take a step forward or backward this year.

The Jays haven’t spent money on anyone yet so we can’t even discuss what types of free agents they’re targeting.

And just because they do sign a couple of free agents doesn’t mean they’re not betting on their own young talent, it was pretty obvious last season that’s the direction. But there are 25 roster spots to fill and every team needs pitching depth.

[raptorsfan2018]

The correct answer is the Orioles.

[phillipmike]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/phillips-reality-is-there-s-a-bit-of-a-hurdle-to-get-mlb-players-to-come-to-toronto~1848973?fbclid=IwAR1O7Kj3-GuM-0Hg9Vm5kH_ghMXEaFO7XgmvIn4ycNUs8-SVuqY0dM4FxbA

Even overdrive thinks we have the worst pitching staff.

The AA era wasn't even free agency driven. Amazes me people think the only way we can uprade is signing free agents.

Not shooting the messenger but the guys at overdrive don’t know their a^^^^ from their heads. Good for a laugh but mostly clueless on non hockey related subjects and even their hockey discussions can be laughable.

[BigLeagueChew]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/phillips-reality-is-there-s-a-bit-of-a-hurdle-to-get-mlb-players-to-come-to-toronto~1848973?fbclid=IwAR1O7Kj3-GuM-0Hg9Vm5kH_ghMXEaFO7XgmvIn4ycNUs8-SVuqY0dM4FxbA

Even overdrive thinks we have the worst pitching staff.

The AA era wasn't even free agency driven. Amazes me people think the only way we can uprade is signing free agents.

Not shooting the messenger but the guys at overdrive don’t know their a^^^^ from their heads. Good for a laugh but mostly clueless on non hockey related subjects and even their hockey discussions can be laughable.

Definately. Was mostly posting it for Phillips thoughts. TSN had to make a radio show after Sporstnet did but they have much better coverage for baseball since no games are broadcast on TSN anymore. Seeing O'Neil and Mclennan talk about baseball or basketball is brutal.

It's just wrong to say we're the worst pitching staff.

[raptorsfan2018]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/phillips-reality-is-there-s-a-bit-of-a-hurdle-to-get-mlb-players-to-come-to-toronto~1848973?fbclid=IwAR1O7Kj3-GuM-0Hg9Vm5kH_ghMXEaFO7XgmvIn4ycNUs8-SVuqY0dM4FxbA

Even overdrive thinks we have the worst pitching staff.

The AA era wasn't even free agency driven. Amazes me people think the only way we can uprade is signing free agents.

Not shooting the messenger but the guys at overdrive don’t know their a^^^^ from their heads. Good for a laugh but mostly clueless on non hockey related subjects and even their hockey discussions can be laughable.

Definately. Was mostly posting it for Phillips thoughts. TSN had to make a radio show after Sporstnet did but they have much better coverage for baseball since no games are broadcast on TSN anymore. Seeing O'Neil and Mclennan talk about baseball or basketball is brutal.

It's just wrong to say we're the worst pitching staff.

I agree and I’ve heard that same thing before about Overdrive from many different sources. They get outside of hockey and they’re really out of their element. I don’t listen because I can’t take them seriously.

[fbalmeida]

With:

Roark
Anderson
Yamaguchi
Schoemaker

and

Kay
Thornton
Waguespack
Borucki

all getting honest cracks at the rotation, I actually like our chances. It certainly is a better rotation than whatever it was that we finished last year off of.

[VanWest82]

We’re definitely on the low, low end as far as top line, MLB ready pitching talent. That said, Jays have done a decent job with the sheer amount of arms they’ve added over the past year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them more frequently go the short start route like they did with Font last year. It’s perhaps not ideal but an effective way to make use of all the AAAA and back end rotation guys we have in the mix. I only trust most of these guys for an inning or two anyway.

[Skin Blues]

With:

Roark
Anderson
Yamaguchi
Schoemaker

and

Kay
Thornton
Waguespack
Borucki

all getting honest cracks at the rotation, I actually like our chances. It certainly is a better rotation than whatever it was that we finished last year off of.

Lets play a fun game, called "What are the Steamer projected HR/9 for Blue Jays starters":

Roark: 1.72
Anderson: 1.93
Yamaguchi: N/A
Shoemaker: 1.74
Kay: 1.77
Thornton: 1.71
Waguespack: 1.53
Borucki: 1.52

For reference, only two qualified starting pitchers allowed more than 1.71 HR/9 last season in the "year of the home run". The Blue Jays have had precisely 1 such pitcher in the history of the franchise: Dave Stewart in 1994, in the strike-shortened season that wouldn't otherwise have been enough innings to qualify. He's the only one above 1.55, in fact. So either we will have the worst rotation in the history of forever, or there's something funky with the Steamer projections. I'm inclined to believe it's a bit of both.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Lets play a fun game, called "What are the Steamer projected HR/9 for Blue Jays starters":

Roark: 1.72
Anderson: 1.93
Yamaguchi: N/A
Shoemaker: 1.74
Kay: 1.77
Thornton: 1.71
Waguespack: 1.53
Borucki: 1.52

For reference, only two qualified starting pitchers allowed more than 1.71 HR/9 last season in the "year of the home run". The Blue Jays have had precisely 1 such pitcher in the history of the franchise: Dave Stewart in 1994, in the strike-shortened season that wouldn't otherwise have been enough innings to qualify. He's the only one above 1.55, in fact. So either we will have the worst rotation in the history of forever, or there's something funky with the Steamer projections. I'm inclined to believe it's a bit of both.

It's not a bit of "worst rotation in the history of forever." It's not a particularly good rotation and it's definitely an unorthodox one that looks like it will try to rely on more innings from multiple pitchers per game but it's also not the worst staff in the league. When Steamer is projecting every single pitcher to have the worst HR9 mark in their careers, both minor and major leagues, then something is up with the steamer projections or they know something we don't like MLB is going to secretly change balls yet again, this time with 250% more rubber.