antonaki1 wrote:They would have been smarter by putting that money in the pot and trying to acquire a real pitcher. How in this world is it ok to pay a pitcher with era's in the 6 and 7's a salary of 8 million a years. They won't be a serious contender until they get another ace at whatever the cost. Baseball is all about pitching, if you have it, you win. Positional players usually get shut down in the playoffs so stop focusing on them, it's all about quality pitching.
Because there's an assumption that the first several years of Ray's career are more telling than the last 50 innings. Let's look at three pitchers from 2015-2019:
Pitcher A: 718.2 IP, 3.78 ERA (84 ERA-), 0.89 HR/9, 12.2 K-BB%, 3.79 FIP, 3.95 SIERA, 12.4 fWAR.
Pitcher B: 762 IP, 3.96 ERA (88 ERA-), 1.24 HR/9, 18.7 K-BB%, 3.92 FIP, 3.80 SIERA, 12.3 fWAR.
Pitcher C: 823.2 IP, 3.82 ERA (91 ERA-), 1.23 HR/9, 14.5 K-BB%, 4.15 FIP, 4.31 SIERA, 11.7 fWAR.
Overall, you'd give a slight edge to Pitcher A, I think. They are the most consistent, Pitcher B is the most dynamic, Pitcher C is something of a workhorse but pretty average overall.
Pitcher A is Stroman, Pitcher C is Odorizzi (who many want to sign), and Pitcher B is Robbie Ray.
Obviously, you can't simply pretend that 2020 didn't happen, and good news: we aren't! If 2020 doesn't happen, Robbie Ray doesn't sign for 1/$8m, he signs for a pretty large contract. But if you're wondering why we're spending $8m on a guy who just had an awful 50 IP, it's because prior to that he wasn't significantly worse than a guy that many here (incorrectly, IMO) considered to be an ace.