2021 MLB Draft Thread, July 11-13 - Jays draft RHP Gunnar Hoglund 19th overall

[Schad]

The draft this season is happening July 11-13. Unlike last season, this will be a full draft, not a silly mini-draft.

The Jays' selections and bonus allotments (we have the third-smallest pool in the league owing to the pick forfeit to sign Springer):

1st round, 19th overall: $3,359,000 - Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss (JR).
3rd round, 91st overall: $647,300 - Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Golden West College (JuCo).
4th round, 121st overall: $473,700 - Chad Dallas, RHP, Tennessee (JR).
5th round, 152nd overall: $350,300 - Irv Carter, RHP, Calvary Christian (HS FL).
6th round, 182nd overall: $268,200 - Hayden Juenger, RHP, Missouri State (JR).
7th round, 212nd overall: $209,800 - Jaden Rudd, OF, A. Crawford Mosley (HS FL).
8th round, 242nd overall: $170,300 - Hunter Gregory, RHP, Old Dominion (JR).
9th round, 272nd overall: $152,900 - Conor Larkin, RHP, Penn State (SR).
10th round, 302nd overall: $144,400 - Connor Cooke, RHP, Louisiana - Lafayette (JR).

[Schad]

I will obviously do a much deeper look at the good names of the draft later, but I want to highlight that one of the top 100 prospects is a kid by the name of Max Muncy. Absolutely no relation to the other Max Muncy.

This would hardly be the first time that two players with the same first/last name have been in the bigs, but Muncy isn't a particularly common name; according to the 2010 United States Census, it was the 6410th most common surname in the country, with 5308 individuals named Muncy. In terms of its rarity, it's a shade less common than Womble or Flournoy, both of which would have an excellent chance in being included in a future survey of names (no Wombles or Flournoys have ever reached the majors).

Likewise, while Max and variations thereof aren't incredibly uncommon, neither was it particularly common in 2002 when this kid was born: it was the 165th most-used boy's name, while Maxwell fell at 129th.

The odds are thus reasonably good that you'd have multiple unrelated Max Muncys in the US, but not at all good that you'd have two in the majors. It's a bit weird! Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

[-MetA4-]

Kiley McDaniel just released a new mock draft:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31651109/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-mock-draft-20-new-no-1-gets-jack-leiter-kumar-rocker

19. Toronto Blue Jays
Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL), Florida commit

Toronto was in heavy at a Florida prep All-Star game to see Allen (where he played well). He's in play at the two picks before this and with Tampa Bay's picks just below, so this is the spot to take Allen if the Jays want him. Wake righty Ryan Cusick and Florida outfielder Jud Fabian are also frequently mentioned here.

[polo007]

2021 MLB mock draft 1.0: Kumar Rocker to Red Sox, Pirates go with a catcher at No. 1 in Keith Law's first look – The Athletic

19. Toronto Blue Jays: Mike McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

The Blue Jays have shown they’re willing to go college or high school, but I don’t think they’ll go high school pitcher in the first round. McGreevy is a “safe” pick as college arms go, with some of the best command in the draft and probably the best control, with just 10 walks this year in 88 2/3 innings, never more than two walks in any single start.

[polo007]

MLB mock Draft (June 16 2021) - MLB.com

19. Blue Jays: Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep (Pennsauken Township, N.J.)

This still appears to be a solid connection, with college arms like Mike McGreevy possibly coming into play as well.

[Schad]

A bit of draft trivia, since we're linked to Solometo: the Blue Jays have never selected a prep lefty in the first round proper. Matt Smoral (50th overall, a supplementary round pick) is the earliest the Jays have ever picked one...he was released before he got to full-season.

[JaysRule15]

A bit of draft trivia, since we're linked to Solometo: the Blue Jays have never selected a prep lefty in the first round proper. Matt Smoral (50th overall, a supplementary round pick) is the earliest the Jays have ever picked one...he was released before he got to full-season.

Wasn't Smoral the guy who was gonna be a stud for us as soon as he healed from that foot injury.

[polo007]

2021 MLB Mock Draft 2.0: Jack Leiter to Tigers, Pirates take a high school shortstop in Keith Law’s latest look - The Athletic

19. Toronto Blue Jays: Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (FL) HS

The Jays were heavy on Allen during the state’s all-star game late in the year when their scouts were also able to see Florida’s Tommy Mace (who had one of his worst outings).

[-MetA4-]

New Baseball America Mock Draft:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

#19 RHP Andrew Painter
Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

Notes:
We’ve heard the Blue Jays tied to two of the better high school players in Florida recently, in Painter and Jay Allen. Painter’s range seems quite wide, which is common for prep righthanders, but the Blue Jays sound like a team that has invested a lot of looks into him. This could be a nice addition to a farm system that has one of the best collections of bats in baseball. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Toronto add yet another catcher to that farm system either, with Ford or Joe Mack.

[SharoneWright]

19
team logo
Blue Jays
Pick: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest ($3,359,000 slot value)

Cusick is one of the hardest throwers in the draft class and the Blue Jays have a recently history of jumping on big college arms. At this point in the mock high school players offer the most upside, but Cusick has as much ability as any college arm outside the two Vanderbilt righties.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2021-mlb-mock-draft-pirates-take-prep-shortstop-no-1-vandys-kumar-rocker-and-jack-leiter-go-in-top-10/

[wamco]

Draft 9 college pitchers and fast track them into our bullpen august 1st

[polo007]

Mock Draft: The home stretch - MLB.com

19. Blue Jays: Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep (Pennsauken Township, N.J.)

Another player who seems almost locked in with a team, and Solometo is the top prep lefty in the class. But there are several options for teams at this point, with Solometo seeming to be the best bet right now, ahead of someone like prep catcher Joe Mack.

[polo007]

2021 MLB draft guide: Best fits and biggest needs for all 30 teams - ESPN.com

19. Toronto Blue Jays

Where their farm system ranks: 11th

Biggest system strengths: Infielders

Biggest system needs: Outfielders

How they typically draft: Toronto has a nice mix of risky/safe, pitcher/hitter and prep/college at high picks, taking what the board gives it.

Best fits: College pitching (Gunnar Hoglund, Will Bednar, Ty Madden), the top of the third tier of position players (Jay Allen, Jud Fabian) and the second tier of prep arms (Anthony Solometo, Frank Mozzicato) are what the board is giving the Blue Jays here and what they're rumored to be shopping for.

Past five first-round picks: INF Austin Martin (2020); RHP Alek Manoah (2019); SS Jordan Groshans (2018); SS Logan Warmoth (2017); RHP Nate Pearson (2017)

[polo007]

2021 MLB Mock Draft - V 6.0 — Prospects Live

19. Toronto Blue Jays

Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace

The connection between the Jays and Solometo continues to get louder and louder. There are folks close to the prep southpaw who believe, if he makes it this far, it’s as good as gold. That said, a lot can change and there could always been surprises that fall into the lap of the Great White North. Austin Martin tumbled to Toronto in 2020. That sort of thing could happen again this year.

[Schad]

I'd be content with Solometo. He doesn't throw particularly hard, but he's tall and lanky and already has very good command of a fastball with considerable movement, and a slider that should be very tricky given that he throws from a lowish arm slot.

Basically, it's a projection bet: if his changeup becomes even a reasonable pitch that he can throw 10% of the time without getting shellacked, and he adds a couple ticks to his fastball, you have a guy who can command two good pitches well enough to be very tough on lefties and solid or better against righties. If he gains more than a couple ticks or turns his CH into a real weapon, you have a serious prospect who could progress quickly for a prep arm.

[polo007]

Mock Draft 2.0 | FanGraphs Baseball

19. Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL)

Sources told us Allen was in for a private workout and he starts getting mentioned consistently in this range of the first round.

[polo007]

Toronto Blue Jays 2021 Draft preview - MLB.com

Here is a look ahead at five things to watch as the Blue Jays enter the Draft.

Striking a balance between old and new

The Blue Jays will have 20-25 staff together at their player development complex in Dunedin, Fla., for the Draft, including cross-checkers, analysts and other members of the front office. It’s a little less “virtual” than the 2020 Draft, and while access to players often varied by state or college, some of the scouting process returned to a more “normal” style recently. Still, the Blue Jays have learned from their remote work throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It took what felt like a need to go see every player in person away,” said Shane Farrell, the Blue Jays’ director of amateur scouting. “We can sit at a desk or sit in a hotel on the other side of the country and watch every at-bat a player has taken over the course of the season. It creates some familiarity with the player in the event you do ever run into them in person.”

Keeping their options open

Martin falling to the No. 5 pick last summer was a surprise, but something Toronto would have prepared for. At 19, though, the Blue Jays need to prepare for far more outcomes, including the potential of a top player taking an even farther fall down the Draft board.

“This year we’re definitely casting a wider net in terms of who we think will be available at our pick,” Farrell said. “It will be a bit more reactionary as to what’s going on in front of us this year, just with more picks being in front of where we are.”

Money matters

The slot value of the No. 19 pick this season is $3,359,000. Given their small total bonus pool, the Blue Jays could target a player they’re confident they can sign under that slot value and save cash for later, or they could be aggressive off the top and make it work in the later rounds. Toronto has options, but the money available to it will be a major factor in this Draft.

“We’re definitely open to looking at various ways to use our bonus pool,” Farrell said. “I think the most important thing for us to focus on is trying to acquire the best player at each pick in each round. It’s about staying true to that, and weighing the cost that is associated with that pick is something we’ll have to do in the moment as our pick approaches.”

The hunt for late-round gems

Farrell is happy to be picking 19th instead of fifth, but it does present the challenge of top-end talent being selected in front of the Blue Jays. Their task now is to uncover talent in a later Draft slot, especially when they don’t pick again until the 91st selection.

“It’s challenging, obviously, the deeper you pick in each round," Farrell said. "But you can look at organizations like the Dodgers who have had a lot of recent success picking deep, and they’ve done a tremendous job in their amateur Drafts led by Billy Gasparino. They’ve done a really great job, but I think the important thing as we start to pick deeper and deeper in the Draft is just coming into each Draft and each round with an open mind, and not getting too specific on what you’re looking for -- recognizing that baseball players are coming from all areas and all different backgrounds.”

Canadian prospects still on the map

Scouting Canadian players was complicated at times due to border restrictions and the inability to see them play in live games at ball parks, but the Blue Jays got a chance to see some young Canadians as they played in South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, the Pacific Northwest and elsewhere over the past year.

“As any scouting staff would, wherever the players were playing we were going to show up and we were going to be there.” Farrell said. “Despite the challenges, we made sure we were still present and still evaluating them.”

The most recent Canadian picked in a high round by the Blue Jays was outfielder Dasan Brown, who went in the third round in 2019. Brown, now the Blue Jays’ No. 15 prospect, is one of the most gifted athletes in the organization, already profiling as an elite runner and above-average defender while he works to develop his offensive game.

[BoyzNTheHood]

I'd say I'm a casual when it comes to baseball, but what are you guys' thoughts on Kumar Rocker? I've seen him mocked ahead of where we pick, but I find him to be an interesting prospect.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

With the first round of the draft happening tomorrow, I have waded through an endless progression of Masons, Con(n)ors and Hunters to bring you some quality names:


Bailey Dees. I wonder how many times he has heard that particular off-colour joke at this point.

Braxton Cottonwood. If he doesn't wear linen suits and sport elaborate facial hair, he's dead to me.

Cam Chick. C'mon dude, that feels really retrograde. I believe that the preferred nomenclature is Digital Media Entrepreneur.

Michael Trautwein. Wein, Michael Trout, Wein.

Jett Lovett. Almost a perfect name for a New Country singer whose discography consists almost entirely of anthems about getting drunk on and around various forms of transportation. The one about drinking Southern Comfort in the shade of a combine harvester is a real banger!

Mac Hippenhammer. Just magnificent.

Riggs Threadgill. Riggs Threadgill feels like he's both halves of a cop buddy movie, somehow.

Shaddon Peavyhouse. I admire parents who start with something like "Peavyhouse" and resist the urge to give their kid a boring first name. You gotta commit. You gotta make sure that your kid has to spell their first and last names phonetically three times to every customer service representative that they ever encounter.

Jaymz Knowlton. Just kidding that first name is a war crime.

Owen Sharts. He was on this list a few years ago, when he was in high school. He's back because how could he not be.

Lillo Paxia. About 95% sure that's an NPC in Mass Effect.

Kaeber Rog. Mass Effect fans demanded that beloved party member Kaeber Rog be romanceable, but developers were unsure of how to make that work with a sentient blob of elemental tungsten.

Beaux Bonvillain. Monsieur Blofeld est un Beaux Bonvillain.

Cross Jumper. Huh.

Talmadge LeCroy. Big late 19th century US Senator energy.

Cullen Kafka. His progress to the majors will be surreal, provoke feelings of existential despair, and will follow an impossibly obtuse path. It will almost assuredly end poorly.



Invariably I get about a quarter of the way through the ~3000 names in the draft pool and conclude that there are just not that many good names. But there are always names, friends. In a draft this big, there will always be names.