Ray or Semien

[bluerap23]

If you could sign one of them in the off-season which one would you want?

[dagger]

Ray, because good starting pitching is a must, and we aren't getting a top tier guy unless we throw a King's Ransom of prospects into a trade. We do, on the other hand, have promising infield prospects, plus we have the ability to upgrade the offence at other positions via prospects. Catcher for one. Also, it's possible Ray would be favourably disposed to staying if Pete Walker is back, but I don't know if Semien values his experience here enough to demand anything less than top dollar.

[Ado05]

Ray. But I do remember reading somewhere someone thought Ray was due for some regression because some underlying numbers were unsustainable. I dont remember the details, I'll try to find it and post it here if I can.

They also have a glaring hole in the infield for sure. Biggio at 2nd and Kevin Smith at 3rd or something like that isnt good enough.

[Parataxis]

Ray. But also, (and somebody please correct me if I'm wrong) I believe we get better draft pick compensation for Semien signing elsewhere than Ray (assuming we QO them both)?

EDIT: Yup, I'm wrong about that. not sure why I thought it was based on the player, rather than the team.

[JTT]

Ray for me also. Other than Pearson (and who knows if he’ll wind up a starter) there’s not much immediate help on the prospect horizon. Locking in Ray for three or four years would be ideal. More than five and I’m backing away.

As for draft pick compensation, I think both would be type B, that is occurring after the second round. This is determined by the qualifying teams revenues, not the players involved.

[The_Hater]

We have a bunch of middle infielders coming up the system and SP’s are so much harder to come by. Especially in our situation.

I also think Semien will be a more expensive signing.

[Schad]

As for draft pick compensation, I think both would be type B, that is occurring after the second round. This is determined by the qualifying teams revenues, not the players involved.

You're correct that the picks would be Comp Round B, so probably in the low 70s.

Answer is that it depends. Ray is incredibly variable year-on-year, and because he is prone to giving up home runs, you really have to trust his newfound command, because if he loses that he's a launching pad of the highest order. Semien is also incredibly variable, but with a higher floor. However, teams will take that into account in free agency as well.

For 3 years, $50m, I'd re-sign Ray. Much more than that and I'd let him walk. There's a pretty good chance he gets more than that.

For 4 years, $80m, I'd re-sign Semien. Much more than that and I'd let him walk. There's a very good chance he gets more than that.

While you hate to see good players leave, I'd probably refocus our efforts elsewhere if they're in high demand.

[dagger]

As for draft pick compensation, I think both would be type B, that is occurring after the second round. This is determined by the qualifying teams revenues, not the players involved.

You're correct that the picks would be Comp Round B, so probably in the low 70s.

Answer is that it depends. Ray is incredibly variable year-on-year, and because he is prone to giving up home runs, you really have to trust his newfound command, because if he loses that he's a launching pad of the highest order. Semien is also incredibly variable, but with a higher floor. However, teams will take that into account in free agency as well.

For 3 years, $50m, I'd re-sign Ray. Much more than that and I'd let him walk. There's a pretty good chance he gets more than that.

For 4 years, $80m, I'd re-sign Semien. Much more than that and I'd let him walk. There's a very good chance he gets more than that.

While you hate to see good players leave, I'd probably refocus our efforts elsewhere if they're in high demand.

One thing about revenues, the Jays certainly took a very large revenue hit playing first at Dunedin and then at BUF. Is there any evidence the system has been adjusted for Covid?

[Schad]

One thing about revenues, the Jays certainly took a very large revenue hit playing first at Dunedin and then at BUF. Is there any evidence the system has been adjusted for Covid?

As long as we're not receiving revenue-sharing (and I don't believe we are/will be), the comp structure would hold.

[COY0607]

Ray, without a doubt.

But from Atkins recent interview with McCown, I got the sense that they will be more aggressive with Semien than with Ray

[Michael Bradley]

Between the two, probably Semien. He's not going to be this good over the life of a four year contract, but since 2019 he leads all of baseball in fWAR (position players), and his wRC+ over that span is identical to Jose Ramirez. If you're going to overpay in free agency, then overpay for a top end player. Springer is a top end player. Ryu is a top end player (just an unconventional one with an injury history which drove down his price). Semien is one. Ray might be really good, or he might settle back into the pretty good he was prior to 2020. It's not a risk I would take if the money/years are large.

Re-sign Semien and then take a chance on a cheaper FA SP option. Jon Gray outside of Colorado is interesting. Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well in the AL East. Or if you want to go back to "high end", then find a way to correct the team's biggest mistake in a long time and bring Syndergaard back. There are options aside from Ray. Finding someone anywhere near as good as Semien is a much tougher ask.

[Hottie McShotty]

They should sign both If they are serious at contending for next season and beyond. The Jays will be at $65 million after all contracts are tendered for next season. They have money to spend and they should.

[Schad]

They should sign both If they are serious at contending for next season and beyond. The Jays will be at $65 million after all contracts are tendered for next season. They have money to spend and they should.

$65m is not "all contracts tendered"...it doesn't including any of our arb-eligible players, nor any of the minimum salaries. It only represents four players, in actual fact.

When you include the arb salaries of Berrios, Vlad, Teoscar and Cimber, plus the min salaries and other guys we might arb, it's closer to $95-100m.

[Hottie McShotty]

They should sign both If they are serious at contending for next season and beyond. The Jays will be at $65 million after all contracts are tendered for next season. They have money to spend and they should.

$65m is not "all contracts tendered"...it doesn't including any of our arb-eligible players, nor any of the minimum salaries. It only represents four players, in actual fact.

When you include the arb salaries of Berrios, Vlad, Teoscar and Cimber, plus the min salaries and other guys we might arb, it's closer to $95-100m.

Thanks Schad. The $65 million figure is with the 26 man payroll. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2022/

I remember listening to Jeff Passan on the fan590 the other day, and he mentioned the $65 million dollar figure. If we are between $95-100 million then I don't see us signing both. The Ray signing should be this team's first priority in the off-season.

[Schad]

They should sign both If they are serious at contending for next season and beyond. The Jays will be at $65 million after all contracts are tendered for next season. They have money to spend and they should.

$65m is not "all contracts tendered"...it doesn't including any of our arb-eligible players, nor any of the minimum salaries. It only represents four players, in actual fact.

When you include the arb salaries of Berrios, Vlad, Teoscar and Cimber, plus the min salaries and other guys we might arb, it's closer to $95-100m.

Thanks Schad. The $65 million figure is with the 26 man payroll. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2022/

If you click on the actual payroll, it only shows four players under contract:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/2022/

[Hottie McShotty]

Thanks Schad. Didn't know we were spending that much on 4 players. How much do you think Semien and Ray will demand in the off-season?

[Ado05]

Would do 4/75-80 for Ray, which seems like a pretty fair and realistic deal.

[Schad]

$20m AAV for four years is more than I'd do for Ray. For what it's worth, his career per-180 IP fWAR is equivalent to a $21.5m AAV give or take, but it's been lower in the past four seasons, and his walk rate this year is so anomalous compared to his career numbers that I really question how much stock we can put in it.

He's been a great bargain this year, and it's certainly possible that he has ironed out the flaws in his delivery that made him so wild in the past, but boy howdy you wouldn't want to get stuck with four years if his loses his release point again.

[SharoneWright]

Could have replaced them both in a year or 2 for essentially free until Shatkins got bit by the Berrios bug last month…

I voted for the pants.

[Hottie McShotty]

$20m AAV for four years is more than I'd do for Ray. For what it's worth, his career per-180 IP fWAR is equivalent to a $21.5m AAV give or take, but it's been lower in the past four seasons, and his walk rate this year is so anomalous compared to his career numbers that I really question how much stock we can put in it.

He's been a great bargain this year, and it's certainly possible that he has ironed out the flaws in his delivery that made him so wild in the past, but boy howdy you wouldn't want to get stuck with four years if his loses his release point again.

I agree. I believe in regression toward the mean. I can't see how he can maintain this type of performace going forward. I'd be okay with $20m AAV for 4 years. I'd say we have an advantage in signing him, since Ray has talked about how he credits Pete Walker for the repair job he has done to his pitching.