Toronto Blue Jays (85-67) @ Minnesota Twins (67-85)

[Asianiac_24]

If Montoyo plays McGuire over Kirk/Jansen again against the Yankees he should be fired on the spot.

[Mehar]

Boston completely going to **** in this NYY series against their first real competition in weeks is unfortunately also likely to cost us the postseason. Them getting swept is our worst case scenario and it almost makes us sweeping NYY essential given that we can’t expect the Os/Nats to do anything at all.

It is unreal how the Red Sox Bullpen has melted down all weekend. It reminds me of the Jays Bullpen earlier this year. The Yankees have woken up from their slump earlier this month, and the Jays need to probably sweep the Yankees now, to make the WC.

Boston playing like garbage at the most worst time, has definitely hurt us. Hopefully the Red Sox can continue to struggle against the Orioles and Nationals, but that is too much to ask, since the Red Sox just swept Baltimore earlier this week. Jays need to win all of their remaining home games, and that seems like a tough task with the Yankees fully healthy, and playing the way they are right now.

[Randle McMurphy]

Boston completely going to **** in this NYY series against their first real competition in weeks is unfortunately also likely to cost us the postseason. Them getting swept is our worst case scenario and it almost makes us sweeping NYY essential given that we can’t expect the Os/Nats to do anything at all.

While true, this Boston team has been all over the place on the year. They should have no difficulty winning 4 of their remaining 6 even if they lose this one (which should be sufficient), but when they go off the boil, they go off the boil hard.

They certainly went off the boil in the 8th inning to lose this one although Joe West (of course!) had something to do with it.

[JaysRule15]

Yea we're pretty much screwed. Red Sox needed to win at least one game here. But they totally folded back to back games late. And now they play Baltimore and Washington lol. Super easy to go 4-2 there.

We basically need a sweep or 2 outta 3 against the Yankees at the very minimum. Even 2 outta 3 might not be enough. Yankees do play Tampa after us, but Tampa has already clinched. They likely won't even play their main guys. Easy to picture the Yankees winning 2 outta 3 against Tampa.

And in our upcoming series against the Yankees, we have a shaky Ryu going game 1. Then Cole pitching for the Yanks game 2. Winning two games alone will be tough enough, let alone get a sweep.

Absolutely needed 3 out of 4 against Minny at all costs.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yea we're pretty much screwed. Red Sox needed to win at least one game here. But they totally folded back to back games late. And now they play Baltimore and Washington lol. Super easy to go 4-2 there.

We basically need a sweep or 2 outta 3 against the Yankees at the very minimum. Even 2 outta 3 might not be enough. Yankees do play Tampa after us, but Tampa has already clinched. They likely won't even play their main guys. Easy to picture the Yankees winning 2 outta 3 against Tampa.

And in our upcoming series against the Yankees, we have a shaky Ryu going game 1. Then Cole pitching for the Yanks game 2. Winning two games alone will be tough enough, let alone get a sweep.

Absolutely needed 3 out of 4 against Minny at all costs.

Jays probably need to go 5-1 to make it. Not what you want at all.

[Schad]

Jays probably need to go 5-1 to make it. Not what you want at all.

5-1 is probably the outer bound, if we're including a play-in game. 92 wins almost definitely gets us a Wild Card, but there's a good chance 91 wins gets us at least a play-in.

[s e n s i]

they probably do need to go 5-1 to get to 92. 4-2 will require another team to choke. anything less won't get it done.

just find a way to win 2 of 3 against nyy and sweep baltimore is the path here.

[SharoneWright]

they probably do need to go 5-1 to get to 92. 4-2 will require another team to choke. anything less won't get it done.

just find a way to win 2 of 3 against nyy and sweep baltimore is the path here.

Amazing that your path still requires the Red Sox to lose 2 games against BAL and WSH to ensure us a play in.

I fully expect the Rays to tank vs. the Yanks - unless Cash values his friendship with Montoyo more than he should.

[Randle McMurphy]

Jays probably need to go 5-1 to make it. Not what you want at all.

5-1 is probably the outer bound, if we're including a play-in game. 92 wins almost definitely gets us a Wild Card, but there's a good chance 91 wins gets us at least a play-in.

You have to give the Red Sox at least 4 games vs BAL/WSH, which means we need the 5-1 to tie them.

And if we go 2-1 against NYY this week, I wouldn’t want to be relying on a resting TB team to beat NYY in 2 out of 3. I wouldn’t want to be relying on those guys for anything at all really (they want no part of the Jays in the ALDS).

It really looks like we need 5 to me. Would have been 4 had the Red Sox actually done anything this weekend, but at least the Jays fate is still in their own hands.

[Mehar]

Yea we're pretty much screwed. Red Sox needed to win at least one game here. But they totally folded back to back games late. And now they play Baltimore and Washington lol. Super easy to go 4-2 there.

We basically need a sweep or 2 outta 3 against the Yankees at the very minimum. Even 2 outta 3 might not be enough. Yankees do play Tampa after us, but Tampa has already clinched. They likely won't even play their main guys. Easy to picture the Yankees winning 2 outta 3 against Tampa.

And in our upcoming series against the Yankees, we have a shaky Ryu going game 1. Then Cole pitching for the Yanks game 2. Winning two games alone will be tough enough, let alone get a sweep.

Absolutely needed 3 out of 4 against Minny at all costs.

This team had to win at least 3 out of 4 against the worst team in the AL Central, after losing 2 out of 3 against Tampa. To score 1 round against a marginal pitcher in Ober, at this point in the year was very disappointing.

It was a very good year for this team, but I still cannot get over the fact that if we had a competent manager, we would be pretty much certain to be in the post-season right now. To have the Run Differential this team had, and miss the playoffs is quite something. Hopefully, we can get a new manager next year regardless of how the final week shapes up. Hoping Shapiro/Atkins make the right call on letting go of Montoyo, but they probably will not.

[JaysRule15]

Yea we're pretty much screwed. Red Sox needed to win at least one game here. But they totally folded back to back games late. And now they play Baltimore and Washington lol. Super easy to go 4-2 there.

We basically need a sweep or 2 outta 3 against the Yankees at the very minimum. Even 2 outta 3 might not be enough. Yankees do play Tampa after us, but Tampa has already clinched. They likely won't even play their main guys. Easy to picture the Yankees winning 2 outta 3 against Tampa.

And in our upcoming series against the Yankees, we have a shaky Ryu going game 1. Then Cole pitching for the Yanks game 2. Winning two games alone will be tough enough, let alone get a sweep.

Absolutely needed 3 out of 4 against Minny at all costs.

This team had to win at least 3 out of 4 against the worst team in the AL Central, after losing 2 out of 3 against Tampa. To score 1 round against a marginal pitcher in Ober, at this point in the year was very disappointing.

It was a very good year for this team, but I still cannot get over the fact that if we had a competent manager, we would be pretty much certain to be in the post-season right now. To have the Run Differential this team had, and miss the playoffs is quite something. Hopefully, we can get a new manager next year regardless of how the final week shapes up. Hoping Shapiro/Atkins make the right call on letting go of Montoyo, but they probably will not.

Yeah, Montoyo's decisions loom large when we do a post-mortem of this season. So many winnable games thrown away because of questionable bullpen and lineup decisions. Bringing in a struggling Chatwood to lose the game just to prove a point, bringing in Jacob Barnes to blow the game despite having a rested pen, only for Barnes to be DFA'd the next day, using Cimber in a mop-up role the first few weeks we got him despite the other guys in the pen regularly blowing games during that span, batting Grichuk high in the order for most of the season despite Grichuk falling off completely after a hot month, lifting Kirk to put in a guy to sac bunt, calling for two strike bunts multiple times this season leading to outs in huge situations, etc. List goes on and on. If there was a WAR stat for a manager, Charlie would be in the negatives. It's just a testament to how good this roster was that we'll still win 90 games despite losing so many winnable games.

This could've easily been a 95+ win team with the proper manager and little more luck. We had the best hitter in the AL, best starting pitcher in the AL, a top 5 closer in the AL, a top 3 offence in the majors and a top 10 starting rotation in the majors. It's just crazy that we're likely to miss the playoffs despite so many huge pieces on the roster.

At least we have a young roster overall, but still, there's no guarantees this is a better team next season. Especially if Ray and Semien move on. Even if they do stay, it's more likely they'll take a step back next season rather than a step forward. Then you have guys like Springer and Ryu getting a year older (Ryu is already starting to fall off). There's definitely gonna be regret if we miss the playoffs this season. I feel like this team has as good a chance as any team to make a run in the post-season.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yea we're pretty much screwed. Red Sox needed to win at least one game here. But they totally folded back to back games late. And now they play Baltimore and Washington lol. Super easy to go 4-2 there.

We basically need a sweep or 2 outta 3 against the Yankees at the very minimum. Even 2 outta 3 might not be enough. Yankees do play Tampa after us, but Tampa has already clinched. They likely won't even play their main guys. Easy to picture the Yankees winning 2 outta 3 against Tampa.

And in our upcoming series against the Yankees, we have a shaky Ryu going game 1. Then Cole pitching for the Yanks game 2. Winning two games alone will be tough enough, let alone get a sweep.

Absolutely needed 3 out of 4 against Minny at all costs.

This team had to win at least 3 out of 4 against the worst team in the AL Central, after losing 2 out of 3 against Tampa. To score 1 round against a marginal pitcher in Ober, at this point in the year was very disappointing.

It was a very good year for this team, but I still cannot get over the fact that if we had a competent manager, we would be pretty much certain to be in the post-season right now. To have the Run Differential this team had, and miss the playoffs is quite something. Hopefully, we can get a new manager next year regardless of how the final week shapes up. Hoping Shapiro/Atkins make the right call on letting go of Montoyo, but they probably will not.

Yeah, Montoyo's decisions loom large when we do a post-mortem of this season. So many winnable games thrown away because of questionable bullpen and lineup decisions. Bringing in a struggling Chatwood to lose the game just to prove a point, bringing in Jacob Barnes to blow the game despite having a rested pen, only for Barnes to be DFA'd the next day, using Cimber in a mop-up role the first few weeks we got him despite the other guys in the pen regularly blowing games during that span, batting Grichuk high in the order for most of the season despite Grichuk falling off completely after a hot month, lifting Kirk to put in a guy to sac bunt, calling for two strike bunts multiple times this season leading to outs in huge situations, etc. List goes on and on. If there was a WAR stat for a manager, Charlie would be in the negatives. It's just a testament to how good this roster was that we'll still win 90 games despite losing so many winnable games.

This could've easily been a 95+ win team with the proper manager and little more luck. We had the best hitter in the AL, best starting pitcher in the AL, a top 5 closer in the AL, a top 3 offence in the majors and a top 10 starting rotation in the majors. It's just crazy that we're likely to miss the playoffs despite so many huge pieces on the roster.

At least we have a young roster overall, but still, there's no guarantees this is a better team next season. Especially if Ray and Semien move on. Even if they do stay, it's more likely they'll take a step back next season rather than a step forward. Then you have guys like Springer and Ryu getting a year older (Ryu is already starting to fall off). There's definitely gonna be regret if we miss the playoffs this season. I feel like this team has as good a chance as any team to make a run in the post-season.

I’d forgotten a few of those but I think you could easily find at least a dozen such games where Montoyo made the obvious wrong move that contributed to a loss. Definitely the worst in-game manager I’ve ever seen and it unsurprisingly looks like that will cost them.

And I think it’s a pretty fair bet the Jays won’t be as good next year. Even if you somehow brought back both Ray and Semien, they almost certainly won’t perform like that again. Their starting pitching health this year will also be hard to replicate in 2022. Now they may make the playoffs anyway (hard to see both the Rays and especially the Red Sox matching their records next year), but this level of talent will be hard to replicate.

[Schad]

You have to give the Red Sox at least 4 games vs BAL/WSH, which means we need the 5-1 to tie them.

And if we go 2-1 against NYY this week, I wouldn’t want to be relying on a resting TB team to beat NYY in 2 out of 3. I wouldn’t want to be relying on those guys for anything at all really (they want no part of the Jays in the ALDS).

It really looks like we need 5 to me. Would have been 4 had the Red Sox actually done anything this weekend, but at least the Jays fate is still in their own hands.

We might need 5, but I'm not really sure we should expect that Tampa will rest most of their lineup, at least for the first two games. Teams are weird about sitting players and potentially impacting their timing...Tampa's rotated a few guys out in the final series last year, but their lineups were always competitive.

Also, every position currently on their roster entered today with OPS+ of 100 or better, which is absolutely wild. They basically don't have a weak lineup to put out even if they tried.

[Randle McMurphy]

You have to give the Red Sox at least 4 games vs BAL/WSH, which means we need the 5-1 to tie them.

And if we go 2-1 against NYY this week, I wouldn’t want to be relying on a resting TB team to beat NYY in 2 out of 3. I wouldn’t want to be relying on those guys for anything at all really (they want no part of the Jays in the ALDS).

It really looks like we need 5 to me. Would have been 4 had the Red Sox actually done anything this weekend, but at least the Jays fate is still in their own hands.

We might need 5, but I'm not really sure we should expect that Tampa will rest most of their lineup, at least for the first two games. Teams are weird about sitting players and potentially impacting their timing...Tampa's rotated a few guys out in the final series last year, but their lineups were always competitive.

Also, every position currently on their roster entered today with OPS+ of 100 or better, which is absolutely wild. They basically don't have a weak lineup to put out even if they tried.

FGs expects NYY to go 3-3 and BOS to go 4-2 in their remaining games as well (which means we would need 5): https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/div

Now obviously it could be less than that (especially if Tampa shows any interest in winning those NYY games), but the most likely outcome is that it will be that. There's no way around the fact that the Red Sox really screwed us this weekend with their **** performance.

[Fairview4Life]

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[rarefind]

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I just don't get how none of the following happened:

1. Vasquez doesn't lose his mind on this call. Petition West to at least ask the 1b ump what he saw.
2. Alex Cora doesn't blow a gasket... Not sure if the call is reviewable or not but this shouldn't matter. West has the ability to ask for another opinion as he clearly didn't see the ball come out on the transfer.
3. I know West is the crew chief but man... Another ump has to call time there and ask for a huddle to ask what everyone saw.

If Judge strikes out there the Red Sox surely don't pitch to Stanton and the complexion of the game is potentially completely different. That call affected the Jays almost as much as it affected the Sox.

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

I just don't get how none of the following happened:

1. Vasquez doesn't lose his mind on this call. Petition West to at least ask the 1b ump what he saw.
2. Alex Cora doesn't blow a gasket... Not sure if the call is reviewable or not but this shouldn't matter. West has the ability to ask for another opinion as he clearly didn't see the ball come out on the transfer.
3. I know West is the crew chief but man... Another ump has to call time there and ask for a huddle to ask what everyone saw.

If Judge strikes out there the Red Sox surely don't pitch to Stanton and the complexion of the game is potentially completely different. That call affected the Jays almost as much as it affected the Sox.

It was bizarre that none of those things happened in the context of the game. And you could argue that it affected the Jays even more really. The Red Sox are still very well positioned to make it. The Jays are very much not, mostly due to that Yankee sweep.

[johanliebert]

If Montoyo plays McGuire over Kirk/Jansen again against the Yankees he should be fired on the spot.

Managers don’t set lineups. They hire those analytics guys for a reason to hold them accountable

[Schad]

If Montoyo plays McGuire over Kirk/Jansen again against the Yankees he should be fired on the spot.

Managers don’t set lineups. They hire those analytics guys for a reason to hold them accountable

Knowing what you know about analytics, explain to me what analytics suggest that you should use McGuire over Kirk. Or Valera over literally anyone. Please.

I'd like to posit a different theory: our lineup is set by Xyglorp, an iridescent, intergalactic spacefaring cabbage from the Horsehead Nebula. This may seem like a crazy theory, but bear with me for a moment. What seems more likely: that a bunch of people whose job it is to know how numbers work continually force the manager to make utterly innumerate decisions, or that Montoyo has invested his trust and management decisions in an shimmering side-dish capable of traveling in excess of the speed of light?

Because I have just as much proof that Xyglorp holds the reins as you do that our analytics guys are forcing his hand, but it's much honestly more plausible that a space cabbage -- which might not know baseball all that well -- is doing such stupid ****, versus guys whose careers revolve around knowing how matchups work consistently favouring matchups which make no earthly sense.

[JTT]

If Montoyo plays McGuire over Kirk/Jansen again against the Yankees he should be fired on the spot.

Managers don’t set lineups. They hire those analytics guys for a reason to hold them accountable

Knowing what you know about analytics, explain to me what analytics suggest that you should use McGuire over Kirk. Or Valera over literally anyone. Please.

I'd like to posit a different theory: our lineup is set by Xyglorp, an iridescent, intergalactic spacefaring cabbage from the Horsehead Nebula. This may seem like a crazy theory, but bear with me for a moment. What seems more likely: that a bunch of people whose job it is to know how numbers work continually force the manager to make utterly innumerate decisions, or that Montoyo has invested his trust and management decisions in an shimmering side-dish capable of traveling in excess of the speed of light?

Because I have just as much proof that Xyglorp holds the reins as you do that our analytics guys are forcing his hand, but it's much honestly more plausible that a space cabbage -- which might not know baseball all that well -- is doing such stupid ****, versus guys whose careers revolve around knowing how matchups work consistently favouring matchups which make no earthly sense.