Game 159 - New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, September 30, 7:07pm

[HangTime]

Game 159
Cory Kluber (5-3, 3.82 ERA)
vs
Robbie Ray (13-6, 2.68 ERA)

[Hottie McShotty]

2 out of 3 is must! A sweep is ideal, however very difficult to attain seeing how well NY is playing right now. Anything less than a 5-1 record to finish the season and it's over.

WE CAN DO IT! LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

[LBJKB24MJ23]

desperately need a sweep. 2 out of 3 still good. if the Jays go 1-2, kiss your season good bye.

Gurriel hurt, Vladdy massive slump, Ryu - don't know which Ryu we will see.

[Parataxis]

Don't worry, we got these

Game 1
Jameson Taillon (8-6, 4.41 ERA)
vs
Hyun Jin Ryu (13-9, 4.34 ERA)

Game 2
Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.08 ERA)
vs
Hyun Jin Ryu (12-9, 3.48 ERA)

Game 3
Cory Kluber (5-3, 3.82 ERA)
vs
Robbie Ray (13-6, 2.68 ERA)


----------
WC Standings, GB, games remaining
Yankees - (+1), @Blue Jays x3, vs Tampa Bay x3
Red Sox - (--), @Orioles x3, @Nationals x3
Blue Jays (1), vs Yankees x3, vs Orioles x3
Mariners (2), vs A's x3, vs Angels x3
A's - (3), @Mariners x3, @Astros x3

It says a lot about Montoyo's managing that I saw Ryu for both Games 1 and 2 and thought, "yeah, seems like a thing".

Sweep here is pretty much needed. Keeps us in control of our own destiny. If we take 2 of 3, then we need to Sweep the Os, and hope that the Rays win the final series. I don't like those odds.

[Yeezus_]

Really need game 1 with Cole pitching game 2. Game 1 is almost a must win considering the circumstances.

The very least we need 2 of 3.

[JN]

Jumping ahead a bit here -- if things go well this series, which they may not.

I know that the Rays will probably limit the playing time for their best players in the last weekend. But will they purposely play an even crappier lineup and limit the innings of their better pitchers even more for reasons of spite against the Jays -- as retaliation for last week. Is that overthinking? And if they did would Charlie Montoyo praise them for doing so?

[Schad]

Jumping ahead a bit here -- if things go well this series, which they may not.

I know that the Rays will probably limit the playing time for their best players in the last weekend. But will they purposely play an even crappier lineup and limit the innings of their better pitchers even more for reasons of spite against the Jays -- as retaliation for last week. Is that overthinking? And if they did would Charlie Montoyo praise them for doing so?

The Rays don't have a crappy lineup, unless they're planning to start pitchers in the field. Here are the 13 position players on their roster, sorted by OPS+:

Mike Zunino - 135.
Wander Franco - 134.
Brandon Lowe - 133.
Randy Arozarena - 130.
Austin Meadows - 117.
Ji-Man Choi - 115.
Joey Wendle - 114.
Yandy Díaz - 112.
Nelson Cruz - 111.
Francisco Mejía - 104.
Kevin Kiermaier - 100.
Manuel Margot - 100.
Brett Phillips - 100.


Setting aside positional considerations and platoon splits, the worst nine-man lineup they can field would have an average OPS+ of 108, which is to say that their best tank job involves merely putting out what would be the fourth-best offense in baseball.

Similarly, with their pitching staff, their ability to skip their best starters is mitigated by the fact that they basically do not have any best starters. Tampa's 27th in the majors in IP by starters, and their best one (Glasnow) is already on the shelf...their strength is that their relief corps is just extremely deep and capable. And their worst starter (Wacha) is penciled in for tomorrow night, so he's not going to face the Yankees.

It's absolutely possible that Tampa will lose a couple to the Yankees, but that's mostly because it's just baseball. They've assembled the most tank-proof roster in baseball.

[Randle McMurphy]

Jumping ahead a bit here -- if things go well this series, which they may not.

I know that the Rays will probably limit the playing time for their best players in the last weekend. But will they purposely play an even crappier lineup and limit the innings of their better pitchers even more for reasons of spite against the Jays -- as retaliation for last week. Is that overthinking? And if they did would Charlie Montoyo praise them for doing so?

They’ll play a worse lineup because they won’t care about winning the games and will be focused on next week. But Schad is right that there’s a limit to just how bad a lineup Tampa can actually put out there because of their level of depth.

Anyway, this NYY series is effectively the playoffs for this team. If you don’t win the series, the season is pretty much over. And if you don’t sweep the series, it’s going to be very difficult indeed. Let’s hope Ryu is fixed.

[s e n s i]

i know this is no way to live but i am preparing for the yankees to absolutely tee off on ryu.

[Hottie McShotty]

i know this is no way to live but i am preparing for the yankees to absolutely tee off on ryu.

I have the same feeling too. Ryu hasn't looked at all himself this 2nd half of the season. Not saying this has anything to do with it, but after MLB started cracking down and checking pitchers for foreign substances he hasn't looked the same. I would love to see his numbers prior and after this as a comparison.

[Schad]

His primary issue is that his changeup, which has been one of the best in baseball from 2018-2020, has not been even average this year. It's possible that the crackdown affects it, but it's difficult to understand why it would...changeups are thrown out of the back of the hand, not the fingers, and aren't a pitch you're looking to spin heavily. And while his overall results have gotten worse as the year has progressed, his K rate started to nosedive before the ban.

It could be that his fastball shape has changed as a result and that has reduced his deception, but you'd expect a different trend in his pitch usage. Instead, he's throwing more 4-seamers since June (the pitch most likely to be affected) and fewer changeups, which seems to suggest that it's the changeup itself causing him issues.

[JN]

Jumping ahead a bit here -- if things go well this series, which they may not.

I know that the Rays will probably limit the playing time for their best players in the last weekend. But will they purposely play an even crappier lineup and limit the innings of their better pitchers even more for reasons of spite against the Jays -- as retaliation for last week. Is that overthinking? And if they did would Charlie Montoyo praise them for doing so?

The Rays don't have a crappy lineup, unless they're planning to start pitchers in the field. Here are the 13 position players on their roster, sorted by OPS+:

Mike Zunino - 135.
Wander Franco - 134.
Brandon Lowe - 133.
Randy Arozarena - 130.
Austin Meadows - 117.
Ji-Man Choi - 115.
Joey Wendle - 114.
Yandy Díaz - 112.
Nelson Cruz - 111.
Francisco Mejía - 104.
Kevin Kiermaier - 100.
Manuel Margot - 100.
Brett Phillips - 100.


Setting aside positional considerations and platoon splits, the worst nine-man lineup they can field would have an average OPS+ of 108, which is to say that their best tank job involves merely putting out what would be the fourth-best offense in baseball.

Similarly, with their pitching staff, their ability to skip their best starters is mitigated by the fact that they basically do not have any best starters. Tampa's 27th in the majors in IP by starters, and their best one (Glasnow) is already on the shelf...their strength is that their relief corps is just extremely deep and capable. And their worst starter (Wacha) is penciled in for tomorrow night, so he's not going to face the Yankees.

It's absolutely possible that Tampa will lose a couple to the Yankees, but that's mostly because it's just baseball. They've assembled the most tank-proof roster in baseball.

Good post. They could alter things a bit more, I suppose, by playing the reverse off the right-left advantages they use.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

How to determine playoff tiebreakers - MLB.com

[mdenny]

Question from non-baseball fan:

Was Ryu's dip in performance correlated with the crackdown on sticky substances? I heard something pertaining to that on the radio. Did a google search and apparently there's not much evidence in terms of spin rate that this was the case?

Anyone?

Edit. Nvmd...should have read the thread first.

[And1+2]

I've been slowly warming up to baseball over the last month....I still would never be able to watch every regular season game, but I'm definitely going to try and watch this series. Go Jays!

[Michael Bradley]

I think I’d rather have Matz pitch in this game than Ryu but hopefully some extra rest will have helped him.

The Jays absolutely have to win this series. Anything less and it’s over.

[Schad]

Wow, a game against a RHP where we didn't deploy the lethal combination of Valera and McGuire.