2021 Blue Jays Post-Mortem

[s e n s i]

brad hand
tyler chatwood
semien's error against detroit
not enough time to enumerate mind-boggling decisions by charlie (this takes the cake)
playing half the home games in **** dunedin and buffalo
so much else man

things like the springer injury or bullpen injuries i don't mind because i feel the team was relatively healthy overall this year (yet another reason why this **** sucks)

[Randle McMurphy]

Someone really has to go through all of the games Montoyo blew from day 1. If they don't, I will at some point.

[JN]

Someone really has to go through all of the games Montoyo blew from day 1. If they don't, I will at some point.

He wasn't dealt a great hand of relievers, so it made it more difficult for him. But he made it worse.
Add bad relievers, bad bullpen manager (Montoyo) and things go from bad to nuclear in a hurry.
If we somehow develop a deeper core of relievers, at least they can become somewhat Montoyo proof.

I made this point in the other thread.
But whether we keep Semien/Ray or not there will be a regression from their performance.
It is highly likely that our run differential will go down a fair amount next year.

That being said even if it makes a large fall from 180 runs to 100 runs, we could conceivably have just as good a record as next year if not better with a little luck.

Being in Toronto next year will help.

[JN]

Something I noted when watching the Yankees game yesterday on the YES Network.

They made a big deal that they had a recent game that hit viewers of 500,000. They were amazed by it.

I thought to myself, don't the Jays have better average TV audiences than 500,000 when things are going well. So if the Yankee local TV Contract is worth a lot, then Rogers should value ours significantly as well. They better not start cheaping out after this and continue to spend.... but of course its Rogers and in the end since they are not collecting fees from a third party they have less incentive to spend for viewers.

Certainly building through player development in this era where younger players dominate earlier than before (on average) is more important than free agents, I certainly hope the Jays do whatever they can to retain its players.

[Ado05]

All I hope is the budget is open and they continue to stack talent.

Re-sign or adequately replace Ray and Semien. Obviously will be hard to do.

Rebuild the BP. They've generally done a good job building bullpens, I'm not super worried about this. I think they'll get it done.

Get a new manager. I dont expect this to happen, but would be nice.

[Schad]

Something I noted when watching the Yankees game yesterday on the YES Network.

They made a big deal that they had a recent game that hit viewers of 500,000. They were amazed by it.

I thought to myself, don't the Jays have better average TV audiences than 500,000 when things are going well. So if the Yankee local TV Contract is worth a lot, then Rogers should value ours significantly as well. They better not start cheaping out after this and continue to spend.... but of course its Rogers and in the end since they are not collecting fees from a third party they have less incentive to spend for viewers.

Certainly building through player development in this era where younger players dominate earlier than before (on average) is more important than free agents, I certainly hope the Jays do whatever they can to retain its players.

The difference is that carrying regional sports networks is a loss leader for most cable/satellite providers, but a necessary one because it's the sort of thing that absolutely will cause people to switch providers. Rogers can't hold Rogers hostage, and while we likely do well relative to other teams on advertising, that's not the biggest driver of revenue.

[Michael Bradley]

I think Montoyo's job is safe. They won 91 games and I have already seen "3 homes in one year" thrown around as an excuse on social media. I mean, don't get me wrong, it's a very valid excuse. If the Jays played in Toronto all year, or at least a lot sooner than they did, then the Jays are probably hosting a WC game on Tuesday even with Montoyo managerial blunders factored in. So I'm sure he'll get a mulligan, and probably an extension.

[JN]

Looking a little closer at our poor record in close games

Bullpen resources, bullpen management were certainly a factor.

But let's not overlook another major factor. At least until mid August, while the Jays were one of the best offences in the league in all situations combined, they were one of the worst offences in the AL during late/close games. (Not sure how it ended up playing out by the end of the season)

That factor really hurt the team
Was it bad luck?
Does the team need to try really hard to get a Left-Handed bat to neutralize / impact the bullpen management of the opponents in close games?
Is it a lineup that is susceptible to power pitching bullpens?

What can realistically be done? A Mickey Brantley type could have been valuable in the middle of a couple right handed bats I think. A baseball trade to balance the lineup?

[JN]

Something I noted when watching the Yankees game yesterday on the YES Network.

They made a big deal that they had a recent game that hit viewers of 500,000. They were amazed by it.

I thought to myself, don't the Jays have better average TV audiences than 500,000 when things are going well. So if the Yankee local TV Contract is worth a lot, then Rogers should value ours significantly as well. They better not start cheaping out after this and continue to spend.... but of course its Rogers and in the end since they are not collecting fees from a third party they have less incentive to spend for viewers.

Certainly building through player development in this era where younger players dominate earlier than before (on average) is more important than free agents, I certainly hope the Jays do whatever they can to retain its players.

The difference is that carrying regional sports networks is a loss leader for most cable/satellite providers, but a necessary one because it's the sort of thing that absolutely will cause people to switch providers. Rogers can't hold Rogers hostage, and while we likely do well relative to other teams on advertising, that's not the biggest driver of revenue.

Agreed the Rogers in / Rogers out dynamic makes it very different than other markets.

At a minimum can I ask Rogers to just stop showing the Sportsnet Now commercials over and over and over.
That would improve my experience as a Jays fan.

[JN]

Let's discuss the roles of two players heading into next year who have been in high regard of varying levels at various times - Cavan Biggio and Nate Pearson.

In the offseason do you pencil them into a significant role for 2022, or do you not make any assumptions on them and see how it goes.

For example Biggio - do you pencil him into your Starting 9 no matter what this offseason, and not look for another starter at his position? I suppose he has utility value which makes that decision easier.
Do you value him as a large piece of the team moving forward (arguably should he have ever been considered that?) or just a solid player who can play multiple positions?

Nate Pearson
Do you pencil him as a Top 3/Top 4 starter to the point that you do not acquire another arm? I hope the Jays do not go that route.

Is there an argument to be made that since the Jays are contending we should continue to build him as a reliever and pencil him as a top 3 reliever on the team? I think that would be a terrible mistake but willing to listen to the argument.

[Brinbe]

In many ways that was one of the most amazingly surreal and oddly bittersweet games I've ever attended. Not many times when you sort of get what you want, but not really. And that's through no fault of the team (at least today).

Yes, they ultimately put themselves in this position, but they were also extremely unlucky and had to deal with so much upheaval. They will go down as one of the strongest teams to miss out on the postseason (especially considering the historical nature of the division and that this was a 99-win level team with a multidude of all stars, a few MVP level talents and a CY Young probable).

In fact, it's a real shame that it might be it for this group of guys.

But there is always next year, as they say, and leaving the game exiting out onto Front with a crowd that large was really the most normal things have felt for almost two years now. And the Raptors game tomorrow will be another step towards that normalcy.

But I'm glad I went to this game, a good reminder of what 'Toronto Sports' felt like in this city for a long time before things turned around in the mid 2010s.

[COY0607]

Let's discuss the roles of two players heading into next year who have been in high regard of varying levels at various times - Cavan Biggio and Nate Pearson.

In the offseason do you pencil them into a significant role for 2022, or do you not make any assumptions on them and see how it goes.

For example Biggio - do you pencil him into your Starting 9 no matter what this offseason, and not look for another starter at his position? I suppose he has utility value which makes that decision easier.
Do you value him as a large piece of the team moving forward (arguably should he have ever been considered that?) or just a solid player who can play multiple positions?

Nate Pearson
Do you pencil him as a Top 3/Top 4 starter to the point that you do not acquire another arm? I hope the Jays do not go that route.

Is there an argument to be made that since the Jays are contending we should continue to build him as a reliever and pencil him as a top 3 reliever on the team? I think that would be a terrible mistake but willing to listen to the argument.

Hard to factor in Biggio into a significant role given the season he had. Right now, he's a bench player who can potentially work his way in to a everyday starter

I think Pearson did just enough to redeem himself, and he's young enough to get another crack at SP. But I would not feel too good with a rotation with Pearson and a 35-year old Ryu to start the season. Pearson is probably your #6 starter who comes up when a top 5 guy is injured

[Brinbe]

Also, also I think perspective is needed and although it sucks now, we're a long ways away from the absolute malaise of previous seasons and administrations. The days when the opener was the only guaranteed sellout, and 500 level worldstar fights were the most interesting parts of the game.

They were ultimately unlucky and the greatest tragedy is not getting to watch this amazing team get the challenge and global spotlight that they deserve, but I think all things considered with the added surprises of Ray/Semien and high-level secondary stars like Manoah/Berrios/Teoscar/etc, this may be a legit top 5 team in the history of the entire franchise. And there's a special pleasure in having been party to that, even if they came up short.

They return most of that squad and there's still some young high level talent to add to the mix. Moreno, Groshans, Martinez, etc. So there's still a lot of mountain to climb here. The 92/93 team went through the same things.

[s e n s i]

yeah, we legit just watched one one of the very best teams in the franchise's 44-year history not play a single postseason game. that's messed up.

[BitsAndGlory]

I am pretty bummed. I try not to get too down about sports these days, but I can't help but think of the wasted potential of this Jays team. Then the same day, my Niners basically go into the **** too. I am sad.

[Ado05]

Let's discuss the roles of two players heading into next year who have been in high regard of varying levels at various times - Cavan Biggio and Nate Pearson.

In the offseason do you pencil them into a significant role for 2022, or do you not make any assumptions on them and see how it goes.

For example Biggio - do you pencil him into your Starting 9 no matter what this offseason, and not look for another starter at his position? I suppose he has utility value which makes that decision easier.
Do you value him as a large piece of the team moving forward (arguably should he have ever been considered that?) or just a solid player who can play multiple positions?

Nate Pearson
Do you pencil him as a Top 3/Top 4 starter to the point that you do not acquire another arm? I hope the Jays do not go that route.

Is there an argument to be made that since the Jays are contending we should continue to build him as a reliever and pencil him as a top 3 reliever on the team? I think that would be a terrible mistake but willing to listen to the argument.

If they dont bring back Semien and instead acquire a 3B, I could see Biggio being the 2B.

I think it'd be really stupid to pencil Pearson in the rotation, let alone top 3. He hasn't proven he's a good starter in the MLB and he also hasn't even proven that he can stay healthy.

[The_Hater]

Question. Since the expanded playoff format was introduced, has a team ever missed the playoffs with a +183 run differential?

[And1Skip]

Let's discuss the roles of two players heading into next year who have been in high regard of varying levels at various times - Cavan Biggio and Nate Pearson.

In the offseason do you pencil them into a significant role for 2022, or do you not make any assumptions on them and see how it goes.

For example Biggio - do you pencil him into your Starting 9 no matter what this offseason, and not look for another starter at his position? I suppose he has utility value which makes that decision easier.
Do you value him as a large piece of the team moving forward (arguably should he have ever been considered that?) or just a solid player who can play multiple positions?

Nate Pearson
Do you pencil him as a Top 3/Top 4 starter to the point that you do not acquire another arm? I hope the Jays do not go that route.

Is there an argument to be made that since the Jays are contending we should continue to build him as a reliever and pencil him as a top 3 reliever on the team? I think that would be a terrible mistake but willing to listen to the argument.

If they dont bring back Semien and instead acquire a 3B, I could see Biggio being the 2B.

I think it'd be really stupid to pencil Pearson in the rotation, let alone top 3. He hasn't proven he's a good starter in the MLB and he also hasn't even proven that he can stay healthy.

If Semien doesn't come back and somehow they are able to trade for Jose Ramirez (Pearson likely part of a deal), then that's a wash in offensive production so I'm totally fine with a Biggio/Espinal platoon at 2nd base and bottom of the lineup (plus these 2 can play other positions if needed due to injury).

[raptorforlife88]

I cannot believe a team with two of the top five position players in baseball, two others who are in the top 25 (Bichette and Springer), along with another all-star caliber guy in Teo, impressive depth at the catcher position, and a legitimately 5 deep starting rotation just missed the playoffs. This is gonna sting cause this was a WS caliber team, with some performances that will be hard to replicate in the future.

Seriously this was a 99 win team by run differential. The difference between playoffs and not playoffs was as everyone in the world has said a **** early bullpen and manager.

We have to spend this winter.

[vaff87]

Question. Since the expanded playoff format was introduced, has a team ever missed the playoffs with a +183 run differential?

I did some research. In 1954, the Yankees missed the playoffs with a 242 run differential, and the White Sox missed the playoffs with a 190 differential. Since then, only two teams have missed the playoffs with a differential greater than 183:

2002 Red Sox - 194
1987 Jays - 190