Your 2022 Jays plan - or to-do list

[dagger]

Post mortems are backwards looking. I prefer to look ahead to what promises to be a very impactful off-season.

So I'll post mine here.

My 2022 plan: objective - 95+ wins, win the division

I don't see big erosion in the division, so I've targeted 95 wins as a minimum. From a payroll perspective, the Jays have a lower cost in pre-free agency commitments than the Yankees and Red Sox. Aside from Vlad moving into A1 and Teoscar, Stripling and Berrios moving up an arb year, guys like Jansen, Mayza and Biggio moving into A1 are not going to be budget busters. Of course, they could do a deal with Vlad, or buy out the arb years of Bichette, but right now, they do have flexibility to chase their own or other team's FAs, or take on salary in a trade or trades. They will be moving into Year 3 of Ryu's deal, so can also anticipate losing his money for 2024 and beyond.

In terms of existing salary commitments, the current starting point for the Jays is $64m, for the Yankees $135m, for Boston $119m (if JD Martinez doesn't opt out, if he does, of course, deduct $19.3m, but also his talent.) Rafael Devers is A2, and Hunter Renfroe who was a revelation is A3. The Rays starting point is $22m, and they can not re-sign Nelson Cruz, but it's hard to say what they would consider a salary ceiling, and they do have some A2 and A3 guys, so who knows with them... I just assume they will manage to be good again.

Restoring the full home advantage will help Toronto, but only if the Jays prioritize getting off to a better start. My plan is that they not rely on the trade deadline as they did in 2015 and 2021 to kickstart a second half run. Yes, I know the arguments in favor of deadline deals, I just think the AL East is too good right now to sacrifice so much of the season waiting on the deadline. Look at Boston, a team that was supposed to be rebuilding. A good start was the main reason they made the playoffs.

My Plan

Managers/coaches: I’ll go against the grain here and bring back the entire staff. Continuity matters, and short of a Kevin Cash hitting the market, I am not sure a change helps us that much. If anything changes, I’d look at the hitting approach, too much prolonged feast or famine, I like few more more happy meals.

Key free agents: Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien, Steve Matz. My plan would be to prioritize the pitchers, because they are young enough still to justify multiyear deals, and if you bring both Ray and Matz, with Berrios and Manoah, you have a solid rotation. Ray had a season for the ages, so there is regression risk if he’s signed to a long-term deal.

Ryu is an issue, but he gets buried at #5 if he doesn’t have a better regular season. Ross Stripling is A3, so the team controls his fate. Presumably they haven’t given up on Nate Pearson as a starter.

Also, there isn’t much at the higher levels of the farm system, the more promising starters need at least 1-2 more seasons in MiLB before they can be considered here. Even Zach Logue, the prospect starter closest to the majors, ought to start again at Buffalo.

As for Semien, he’s 31, just had what ought to be an unbeatable season, will be looking for his last great payday, still styles himself as a SS, and the free agent market is rich in high quality veteran infielders like Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Trevor Storey, all of whom are younger than Semien. The Jays will tender Semien, that’s a no brainer, but if his demands are too high (I suspect they will be) or he lingers too long on a decision (I suspect he will), I would move aggressively to settle 2B and 3B, get a fairly high end veteran at one of those positions and stick with short-term options at the other. I would try to get Baez to replace Semien at 2b, keeping 3B longer term for Martinez or Groshans. Not sure the Mets with Stroman and Syndergaard hitting free agency will prioritize re-signing Baez. (Their salary starting point for the winter is $127m).

Depending on how the Semien situation pans out, the internal short-term options for 2B/3B are Espinal, Biggio and Otto Lopez, the latter currently our #4 prospect at MLB pipeline. Any one of these three could serve as placeholders.

Key needs: Depending on how the free agent situation breaks, I’d say another quality bullpen arm or two, ideally a setup guy, to push Cimber and Richards back into the sixth and seventh innings (the David Phelps role) and keep us from seeing marginal throwers like Thornton, Saucedo, etc, from letting close games become routs.

Trade assets: Catchers. Danny Jansen resurrected his trade value after his last injury, Alejandro Kirk is young and enticing to other teams, and Gabriel Moreno lurks. Any one of those three ought to command a decent veteran asset in return, or better, although I wouldn’t deal Moreno at all unless his inclusion in a package got us a blockbuster young, controllable veteran in return (unlikely).

Reese McGuire is available to back up whoever gets the bulk of the starts.
IMO, with Moreno and McGuire, the Jays can afford to part with either Jansen or Kirk.

I’d check around what Gurriel might bring back in a trade, he’s young on a great contract, can hit a tonne when healthy, except whenever he is injured, he takes a long time to get his batting eye back. And while he has a cannon for an arm, he’s otherwise an adventure in the outfield.

If Gurriel stays, I’d offer to eat some salary to send Grichuk to the NL. The return isn’t such a big deal but a few million saved might help justify an FA move elsewhere. Corey Dickerson ought to be available on a one-year deal if needed.

Prospects: Moreno’s case is strong, Otto Lopez has a knack of hitting .290 or better at any level he plays at, Zach Logue did fairly well at BUF, but I am not convinced he's for 2022. Aside from Moreno, the best talents like Martinez and Groshans and even second tier possibilities like Samad Taylor are not guys you’d count on next season.

[s e n s i]

if you actually believe in "continuity" then you can turf charlie and promote john schneider. no good reason to bring charlie back except that the team will no longer get ice cream sandwiches after losing, which would suck for them.

trade for donaldson. sign stroman (hate the guy but the player is damn good). sign another overpowering reliever. kick the tires on scherzer or something on a 2-yr deal.

[dagger]

if you actually believe in "continuity" then you can turf charlie and promote john schneider. no good reason to bring charlie back except that the team will no longer get ice cream sandwiches after losing, which would suck for them.

trade for donaldson. sign stroman (hate the guy but the player is damn good). sign another overpowering reliever. kick the tires on scherzer or something on a 2-yr deal.

They will do none of that. They are not bringing Stroman or Donaldson back at any price. Sorry, you haven't been paying attention to the locker room culture they have building.

[Raps in 4]

1. Fire Montoyo

[JTT]

Since there is no immediate help in the minor leagues with SP, I think that you have to start there. My priorities in some flexible order would be:

1) talk to Berrios about an extension. If Berrios can be extended, then you have Berrios, Manoah, Ryu, Stripling as a starting point. Hopefully Pearson would finally be ready, but who knows. I wouldn't object to having both Ray and Matz back, but Ray might get really expensive, especially on term. Given a regression risk and his max effort style, I'm not sure even four years is worth pursuing. Matz seems completely worthwhile as a cheaper deal though. Could we get him at 3/30?

The Marlins and Jays also match up very well with prospect needs. The Marlins are absolutely loaded with young pitching and pitching prospects and need catchers and outfielders. I might explore a deal using Moreno/Kirk and Gurriel for some of their very young pitching (need lots of control though). Otherwise we're back to the market for an injury bounce back or reclamation pitcher. Term is important. Would rather give high AAV short term than the opposite so there aren't problems when we need to extend our young stars.

2)Would love to have Semien back but given our pitching needs and our desire to compete, I think our pitching staff is going to become very expensive. Therefore, I don't think we can afford Marcus. So find a productive veteran infielder, as far as contract structure, a guy like Donaldson (2 years left would be ideal) although there is the culture fit. The other infield position goes to one of Kevin Smith, Lopez, Biggio, Espinal etc.

3) Not as concerned about the bullpen as others. Bullpen performance os so variable and our pen actually ranked in the upper middle of the pack in BP war. Hopefully Merryweather and Borucki can get healthy. Then somewhere along the way we get another power arm.

4) Charlie. I'm not in the fire Charlie camp either. I'm not terribly pro, I just don't think there is any way its going to happen. We won 91 games and our run differential suggests that we were largely an unlucky team. There's just a whole lot of fortune involved in day to day baseball results. Even given no change, we should be better next year.

I would give Charlie a whole lot of credit for aiding in the culture of the most fun team I've ever watched in a baseball season.

5) Keep improving the minor league system. We made our splash last year with Berrios and tha'ts fine if we can lock him up. But in order to sustain long term success, we can't go all Padre and sell out our system for expensive pitching. The minors concern me a bit because although we do have some really excellent middle infield and catching prospects, both of our two highest rated pitching prospects, Hogland and Kloffenstein have really big question marks. So in the end, wouldn't be too disappointed if we collected our supplemental draft picks for Ray and Semien and hit the free agent market to replace them.

No big changes needed. Since luck is so predominant in baseball, especially the playoffs which have more or less been proven to be a crapshoot, the team that can stay competitive over the longest period has the best chance to eventually win.

[s e n s i]

if you actually believe in "continuity" then you can turf charlie and promote john schneider. no good reason to bring charlie back except that the team will no longer get ice cream sandwiches after losing, which would suck for them.

trade for donaldson. sign stroman (hate the guy but the player is damn good). sign another overpowering reliever. kick the tires on scherzer or something on a 2-yr deal.

They will do none of that. They are not bringing Stroman or Donaldson back at any price. Sorry, you haven't been paying attention to the locker room culture they have building.

lol "locker room culture". really eating up these hazel mae fluff pieces that sportsnet pushes each game for the grandma and prepubescent youth demographic. you're right, i don't pay attention to that. one or two alphas in a locker room of 35+ men (including staff) isn't going to make as significant a difference as you'd think.

why even meet with trevor bauer, of all people, last offseason if they cared so much about it? they probably do to an extent, but not enough to not go after good players when you're on the fringe of legit WS contention. will they go after JD and stroman? maybe. maybe not? should they? yes, they should imo.

[COY0607]

1) see if you can get out of Grichuk and Ryu's contracts

2) two of the SPs are free agents, you really need to fill those spots if you plan to compete. I would rather have Pearson and Stripling as you #6 and #7 starters who can come up later. Obviously re-signing Matz and Ray would be ideal, but I would be vary of terms I give to Ray - high chance a massive contract can hurt you 1-2 years down the road. If Matz can be had a for 3 year, $40M - I would take that

3) diversify the lineup, bring in some lefties, some batters who can work the count. As much as I liked Siemien, I don't think you can afford him at $100M++

4) Montoyo - I wanted him gone mid-season, but he has redeemed himself somewhat. If the players like him, I would give him another year.

5) extensions - Berrios, Vladdy, Teoscar, Bo, Gurriel... lot of guys coming up to FA in the next few years. Try to get some of them locked in. Alternatively, trade Gurriel - his value is at an all time high, and you likely can't afford him and everyone else by 2024

6) Is Moreno on the roster to start the season? If so, get value for Kirk

7) Figure out how can Espinal and Biggio can be better utilized next year. Especially Espinal, really liked his production this season. Would not mind his as the starting 3B at all

[The_Hater]

Does anyone know what the Jays approximate budget might be for next season?

I think they need to break the bank for both Ray and Semien. They need to keep their star pitcher but Semien was the mature leader of this team. And Semien’s age doesn’t scare me because he’s one of the best conditioned athletes in all of MLB and rarely misses games. He’s played 155+ games 5/7 seasons, 55/60 in 2020 and had a wrist fracture in 2017 where he missed 77 games but that doesn’t seem to have bothered him since

[Raps in 4]

We won 91 games and our run differential suggests that we were largely an unlucky team.

Or a poorly managed one.

[Parataxis]

Potentially stupid question but if i) Semien would prefer to play at SS instead of 2B (and intends to get paid as an SS), and ii) Semien is a better SS than Bo is...

Is there anything stopping us from moving Bo over to the other side of the field? Surely he can't be that bad at 2B, can he? Or is this just about managing hurt feelings?

[JTT]

Potentially stupid question but if i) Semien would prefer to play at SS instead of 2B (and intends to get paid as an SS), and ii) Semien is a better SS than Bo is...

Is there anything stopping us from moving Bo over to the other side of the field? Surely he can't be that bad at 2B, can he? Or is this just about managing hurt feelings?

I think for right now it's largely the latter. That's hard to discount with a guy like Bo who is such an important piece for several years. Who knows, maybe he would be amenable, but I think that would have already happened if he was.

[Lateral Quicks]

Trade:
Grichuk - Makes too much as 4th outfielder, can likely bring back decent bullpen upgrade or a depth starter
Kirk - With a logjam at catcher, we need to move someone and of the Jansen/Kirk/McGuire trio, Kirk can likely bring the most back. Young catchers that can hit are worth a lot - I would be expecting a solid controllable starter back at least. If the return isn't there, I'd just keep Kirk and rotate him through C and DH.

Re-sign:
Matz - Had a quiet yet quite good year in the AL East. I wouldn't hesitate to bring him back on a 3 year deal if the money isn't too crazy.

Let-go:
Semien - Unless the middle infielder heavy market works against him, he's going to command a massive contract and it's likely not worth it given our internal options. If the money is reasonable of course I'd love to have him back.
Ray - He's going to command a 3 or 4 year mega-deal and given his history of inconsistency and the fact he's a max effort guy, we could end up regretting the deal quite quickly.

Free agency:
Left-handed bat
At least one veteran starter
A couple veteran relievers
Middle infielder

Lineup:
1B Guerrero Jr.
2B Biggio/free agent signing
3B Espinal/free agent signing
SS Bichette
C Jansen
LF Gurriel Jr.
CF Springer
RF Hernandez
DH Free agent LHB

Bench:
McGuire or Moreno
Biggio or Espinal
Smith
Palacios or cheap defense first, fast OF

Rotation:
Berrios
Ryu
Free agent signing
Manoah
Matz
Return from Kirk trade
Stripling
Pearson
Other depth signings
Minor leaguers

Bullpen:
Romano
Cimber
Richards
Mayza
Borucki
Merryweather
Return from Grichuk trade
Free agent additions

To me the team looks in pretty decent shape. Losing Semien and Ray will sting, but as long we spend that money wisely shoring up our holes I don't see why we can't be in the playoffs next year.

[Asianiac_24]

Keep: Matz, Semien unless money is too crazy
Trade: Grichuk, one of Kirk/Jansen/Gurriel Jr. Get a starting pitcher back.
Sign: 2B if Semien leaves, BP arms.
Fire: Montoyo

[agkagk]

if you actually believe in "continuity" then you can turf charlie and promote john schneider. no good reason to bring charlie back except that the team will no longer get ice cream sandwiches after losing, which would suck for them.

trade for donaldson. sign stroman (hate the guy but the player is damn good). sign another overpowering reliever. kick the tires on scherzer or something on a 2-yr deal.

They will do none of that. They are not bringing Stroman or Donaldson back at any price. Sorry, you haven't been paying attention to the locker room culture they have building.

lol "locker room culture". really eating up these hazel mae fluff pieces that sportsnet pushes each game for the grandma and prepubescent youth demographic. you're right, i don't pay attention to that. one or two alphas in a locker room of 35+ men (including staff) isn't going to make as significant a difference as you'd think.

why even meet with trevor bauer, of all people, last offseason if they cared so much about it? they probably do to an extent, but not enough to not go after good players when you're on the fringe of legit WS contention. will they go after JD and stroman? maybe. maybe not? should they? yes, they should imo.

Josh Donaldson is a huge douchebag. Imagine having to share a work8ng environment with that walking stereotype.

[Schad]

Right now, we have four relievers penciled in, with Romero, Cimber, Mayza and Richards. We have two more unknowns in Pearson and Merryweather. We probably need to add three more. Allocate maybe $10m in FA to be able to acquire those, which means more solid high-leverage guys like Tepera than True Closers or whatever and perhaps a trade for a pre-FA reliever.

Assuming Ray's price point is above what I'd consider rational (which is more than 4 years, $80m or thereabouts, given his history), target a starting pitcher in trade. German Marquez is a logical target, assuming the Rockies stop valuing him as a superstar, and his career numbers away from Coors are much better than his numbers at home. Could kill two birds with one stone by putting together a deal that includes Robert Stephenson for our relief core. Kirk/Groshans is probably a reasonable basis.

Attempt to extend Berrios. There's a decent chance that he costs a bit more than I'd prefer to pay, but we need to lock in SP.

Assuming Semien is highly-priced, sign a mid-range, short-term option for 2B or 3B. Kyle Seager might make sense as a LH power bat.

Sign a fifth starter.


That might not seem like the sexiest offseason, but that takes our payroll over $150m, which is probably as high as we can go and still have any shot at our biggest need: to try to extend Vlad/Bichette/Teo, and to be able to actually keep the core together after 2022.

[The_Hater]

Trade:
Grichuk - Makes too much as 4th outfielder, can likely bring back decent bullpen upgrade or a depth starter
Kirk - With a logjam at catcher, we need to move someone and of the Jansen/Kirk/McGuire trio, Kirk can likely bring the most back. Young catchers that can hit are worth a lot - I would be expecting a solid controllable starter back at least. If the return isn't there, I'd just keep Kirk and rotate him through C and DH.

Re-sign:
Matz - Had a quiet yet quite good year in the AL East. I wouldn't hesitate to bring him back on a 3 year deal if the money isn't too crazy.

Let-go:
Semien - Unless the middle infielder heavy market works against him, he's going to command a massive contract and it's likely not worth it given our internal options. If the money is reasonable of course I'd love to have him back.
Ray - He's going to command a 3 or 4 year mega-deal and given his history of inconsistency and the fact he's a max effort guy, we could end up regretting the deal quite quickly.

Free agency:
Left-handed bat
At least one veteran starter
A couple veteran relievers
Middle infielder

Lineup:
1B Guerrero Jr.
2B Biggio/free agent signing
3B Espinal/free agent signing
SS Bichette
C Jansen
LF Gurriel Jr.
CF Springer
RF Hernandez
DH Free agent LHB

Bench:
McGuire or Moreno
Biggio or Espinal
Smith
Palacios or cheap defense first, fast OF

Rotation:
Berrios
Ryu
Free agent signing
Manoah
Matz
Return from Kirk trade
Stripling
Pearson
Other depth signings
Minor leaguers

Bullpen:
Romano
Cimber
Richards
Mayza
Borucki
Merryweather
Return from Grichuk trade
Free agent additions

To me the team looks in pretty decent shape. Losing Semien and Ray will sting, but as long we spend that money wisely shoring up our holes I don't see why we can't be in the playoffs next year.

Letting go of both Ray and Semien would be a massive set back for this franchise. They were both the top players at their respective positions in 2021 and 1st and 3rd on the team in WAR. Thats 14.4 total WAR that needs to be replaced.

Just curious on why you think spending the money elsewhere is the way to go when we’ll be in serious need of high end SP the moment Ray walks? Why wouldn’t we spend that same FA momey on him with no guarantee we can lane one? Plus his inconsistent past will lower his next contract, I see something in the $80/4 range which is perfectly fine for a just turned 30 year old. Ryu received the same contract with a better track record at age 32. Kershaw, Scherzer and Rodan should all carry bigger salaries/contracts as free agents.

At least with Semien, we have several options both on the roster and coming up through the farm as much as I’d hate to see him go.

[ItsDanger]

Listened to Ray and Semien post game comments. Ray will take the most money. Semien's family may be a factor.

I'd re-sign Ray if I had to choose between the 2. I like Semien but I want someone who gets on base, low K hitter at#2 spot. Don't rely on homers so much. The bullpen gets a lot of blame this season and deservedly so but our bats went cold often in those late close games also.

[ItsDanger]

On FA, Jays need to leverage Vlad. He's so well connected to Latino players across the league. That's a big advantage.

[dagger]

Listened to Ray and Semien post game comments. Ray will take the most money. Semien's family may be a factor.

I'd re-sign Ray if I had to choose between the 2. I like Semien but I want someone who gets on base, low K hitter at#2 spot. Don't rely on homers so much. The bullpen gets a lot of blame this season and deservedly so but our bats went cold often in those late close games also.

A pending free agent's comments at season ending press conferences should always be taken with a huge grain of salt, but while Ray was definitely non-committal, blah blahing about not having given free agency much thought (that's BS), Ray sounded as if he'd like to come back all things considered. I felt like while both want the money and years, there would be no other obstacle for Semien, but Ray might indeed be less enthusiastic.

[JTT]

Listened to Ray and Semien post game comments. Ray will take the most money. Semien's family may be a factor.

I'd re-sign Ray if I had to choose between the 2. I like Semien but I want someone who gets on base, low K hitter at#2 spot. Don't rely on homers so much. The bullpen gets a lot of blame this season and deservedly so but our bats went cold often in those late close games also.

A pending free agent's comments at season ending press conferences should always be taken with a huge grain of salt, but while Ray was definitely non-committal, blah blahing about not having given free agency much thought (that's BS), Ray sounded as if he'd like to come back all things considered. I felt like while both want the money and years, there would be no other obstacle for Semien, but Ray might indeed be less enthusiastic.

Isn't it the opposite, though? Semien has said that he very much views himself as a shortstop. If the Giants come calling as I read that they might (don't remember where), then going home, getting term and being a shortstop is going to be tough to beat.