Blue Jays Sign Yusei Kikuchi - $36M/3 Years

[Schad]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/blue-jays-add-potential-to-back-of-rotation-in-yusei-kikuchi/

Fangraphs on Kikuchi:

He possesses three pitches with fantastic whiff rates, but his biggest issue is the amount of hard contact he allows when batters do connect with his pitches. His inconsistent mechanics are likely the root cause of his struggles. Beyond the potential tipping problem his two release points creates, his command is likely compromised without a repeatable delivery. He’s able to control his pitches in the zone, but his inability to hit his spots regularly led to far too many hittable pitches. In order to maximize his weapons, he should fade the usage of his cutter in favor of more sliders thrown on the edge or below the strike zone. He’ll likely continue to allow a bit too much hard contact off his fastball, but its ability to generate a high number of swings and misses means it’s a crucial part of his repertoire. But all these potential adjustments won’t mean much if he can’t figure out his mechanics first.

Basically: throw fewer cutters. Rely more on his slider, and focus on throwing them on the edges or out of the zone as an out pitch. Clean up his mechanics enough to remove any pitch-tipping. Keep dudes off base well enough that you can live the hard contact.

If all of that looks familiar, it's because it's very similar to what we did with Ray last year. Ray largely focused on his FB/SL and used his CB much less, and caught a lot of plate with the FB while fading the slider. Even though he gave up a lot of hard contact, having to respect the slider made his (often straight, meaty) FB play up. That Kikuchi has a second good out pitch doesn't hurt in reconstructing his repertoire, either.

[polo007]

Bowden: Takeaways on 8 big post-lockout trades and signings, including the Matt Olson and Chris Bassitt deals – The Athletic

Toronto Blue Jays sign LHP Yusei Kikuchi to three-year, $36 million contract

The Blue Jays hit a “grand slam” when they traded for Robbie Ray in 2020 and then re-signed him for the 2021 season. When they acquired Ray, he had great raw stuff but lacked a consistent delivery and release point, and didn’t look like he’d live up to his potential. The Blue Jays helped him figure it out, though, and the results last season were impressive: Ray led the AL in ERA (2.84) and innings pitched (193 1/3), lead the majors in strikeouts (248) and and won a Cy Young Award.

The Blue Jays hope to create similar magic with Kikuchi, though probably not to that extent. However, this time, they want to make sure if they do have success and he becomes a star, he doesn’t walk away in free agency, like Ray did when he signed with Seattle this offseason. So they gave Kikuchi a three-year deal that is front-loaded in year one ($16 million) and then $10 million for each of the next two years. Kikuchi pitched to a 3.48 ERA in his first 16 starts last season and made the All-Star team. If the Blue Jays can maximize his abilities, this could turn out to be one of the best value signings of the offseason.

[polo007]

Steve Phillips: Comfortable Toronto Blue Jays' Yusei Kikuchi showing his potential - TSN.ca

When a player joins a new team there is a get-to-know-you period. It’s a time where the coaches watch, take stock, and make small suggestions. They do more listening than talking. Then, once there is a relationship and trust built, the real adjustments can be made.

When Yusei Kikuchi reported to camp, the Jays staff knew they needed to build a trusting relationship with their new lefty. The reports out of Seattle, where Kikuchi pitched for three seasons, indicated that there was a disconnect between him and the Mariners staff.

Kikuchi is an analytics darling despite not having produced at an elite level. As a free agent, clubs loved his stuff and thought that if he cleaned up his mechanics and sequencing of pitches, he could harness his potential.

The Jays saw the same potential, and in many ways, thought that he could be the next Robbie Ray had always had good stuff that he couldn’t quite command and locate. But Jays pitching coach Pete Walker was able to connect with Ray and get him to make the necessary adjustments and then buy in. Walker hoped to do the same thing with Kikuchi.

The 30-year-old starter’s first several outings were merely mediocre. He didn’t throw enough strikes and had plenty of runners on the bases. But he has been excellent over his past three starts. Kikuchi is 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA in May, allowing six hits and seven walks in 17.1 innings while striking out 20. The hard work he has done with Walker has cleaned up his delivery and created a trusting relationship that has allowed Kikuchi to dramatically change his pitch selection and sequencing.

Last season, Kikuchi threw his four-seam fastball on 37.5 per cent of the time, this season he uses it 51 per cent of the time. In 2021, he threw his cutter (34.9 per cent) almost as much as his fastball. It is down to only being used 10.8 per cent this season and was completely scrapped in his past couple of starts. Kikuchi is using his slider 26.8 per cent of the time this season, up from 18.9 per cent. The use of his changeup has remained flat this season.

Ray became a fastball and slider pitcher in his Cy Young season in 2021. That is what we have seen Kikuchi evolve to over his three good starts. Kikuchi’s fastball averages about 95 mph, just like Ray. It’s a good pitch, and there is still more room for him to gain confidence in it. He walks a few too many hitters but that can be alleviated once he fully accepts that his heater is enough, and he doesn’t need to nibble the corners of the plate.

Kikuchi has gotten better and there is still room to grow.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

this mans has bounced back. he does have top of the rotation stuff. consistency is key for this guy

[polo007]

The Jays need more than upside from Yusei Kikuchi | The Star

The Jays have lofty expectations for Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and José Berríos as their top three starters. It’s the two guys below that group — Ross Stripling and Yusei Kikuchi — who bring a lot more uncertainty. They don’t need to be perfect. They just need to be reliable, and that certainly didn’t happen in an 8-4 loss to the Royals in Kansas City on Wednesday afternoon.

Two days after Stripling made a statement with five scoreless innings in the series opener, Kikuchi failed to make one of his own. The 30-year-old wasn’t just bad, he was downright awful, failing to make it out of the first inning against one of the worst lineups in baseball. To make matters worse, almost all the damage was self-inflicted.

From the moment Kikuchi stepped onto the mound at Kauffman Stadium, it appeared he had no idea where the ball was going. He wasn’t just missing catcher Zack Collins’s glove by an inch or two, he was missing by a couple of feet. Of the 45 pitches he threw to retire just two batters, only 24 were strikes.

The final pitching line said it all. Kikuchi was charged with three runs on a pair of hits and four walks. It was the shortest outing of his big-league career, and the only reason he didn’t get charged with more runs is because reliever Trent Thornton entered and bailed him out of a bases-loaded jam. The brief appearance elevated Kikuchi’s ERA from 3.91 to 4.44.

Much has been made of the adjustments that Kikuchi has been making with pitching coach Pete Walker. The biggest change was ditching his cut-fastball in favour of a modified slider, while other minor tweaks were made to his mechanics and where the native of Japan stands on the rubber.

Initially, the changes met with great success. Kikuchi held opponents to two earned runs or fewer across five May starts. He struck out more than a batter per inning and there were flashes of dominance, with a mid-90s fastball and devastating changeup/splitter. The upside was apparent. But even when things were going well, so too was the downside.
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In a recent start against the Cincinnati Reds, Kikuchi walked three batters and hit another while surrendering a pair of runs in the first inning. He escaped and made it into the fifth without any more damage, but he was a pitch or two away from an outing that would have been just as short as Thursday’s. Last week against the Los Angeles Angels, he gave up a pair of hits in each of the first two innings before settling in. Kikuchi’s 1.48 walks plus hits per inning pitched are the highest in the rotation.

The lack of consistency must be infuriating to the coaching staff, which has been preaching to Kikuchi to trust his fastball more by using it to challenge hitters, instead of nibbling around the corners. It’s something the Seattle Mariners can relate to because they experienced it for three years before he arrived in Toronto.

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[alienchild]

He should start trying to hit the batter. At his miss rate, more likely it catches the zone.

[DelAbbot]

good. i didnt like having to consistently throw out stripling

this aged like milk

[polo007]

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[polo007]

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[wazabifuzz]

I hope the jays will try and buy kikuchi out ... just save all our souls

[Hottie McShotty]

$36 Miliion dollars for a pitcher who can't throw strikes. Yikes!

[polo007]

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[linery88]

Kikuchi needs to hide the ball when he pitches,like Berrios has just figured out in his last start;which was great.

[duppyy]

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Would look bad on Shatkins if we are paying 13mil for a minor leaguer.

[Schad]

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Would look bad on Shatkins if we are paying 13mil for a minor leaguer.

Honestly, paying that money to a minor leaguer probably looks less-bad than actually having him pitch at this point. The org may believe that they have a better chance of sorting his mechanics out with the major league staff, but I'm inclined to believe that he'd be better off throwing 80+ pitches in an environment where it doesn't really matter if he's near the strike zone.

[polo007]

Steve Phillips: Blue Jays face Kikuchi conundrum - TSN.ca

Yusei Kikuchi has a great arm. He’s a left-hander who can throw his fastball 95 mph. But he walks too many batters.

There are 166 pitchers in Major League Baseball who have thrown more than 1,000 pitches this season. Kikuchi has the sixth highest pitches per innings (18.58) among that group. He is a nibbler, trying to miss bats instead of attacking hitters. This leads to too many deep counts and, ultimately, too many hitter’s counts and base on balls.

Kikuchi’s career numbers are like those of Robbie Ray before Ray’s great season with the Jays earned him the 2021 AL Cy Young Award. Ray was always a guy with a great arm who didn’t throw enough strikes. Every team wanted him and believed they could fix him.

Clubs felt the same way about Kikuchi. It was the success that Toronto pitching coach Pete Walker had with Ray that led to the Jays signing Kikuchi. The Jays saw similar stuff and solvable issues, believing it was worth giving the lefty a three-year deal. But the changes and improvements have come slowly for Kikuchi this season. He is not Ray – yet.

The Jays recently moved Kikuchi to the bullpen. I’ve seen a move like that help starting pitchers who don’t throw enough strikes. They move to the bullpen, and it triggers aggressiveness. Starters who become relievers feel their fastballs play up in velocity, so they attack the strike zone with their new-found confidence.

That hasn’t happened yet with Kikuchi. In his first two outings as a reliever, he has thrown a total of 45 pitches but only 20 strikes. At this stage, he can only be used when the team is up or down by more than five runs. He needs that margin for error.

The Jays will have to consider sending Kikuchi to the minors to get fixed if he doesn’t make an adjustment within his next couple of outings. It’s a last resort, but that moment is approaching soon. The Jays don’t want to humiliate him, but he may need a wake-up call. It isn’t working his way, so it’s time to change. Time will tell.