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Swing less? It might be a virtue supported by analytics
Posted: Thu May 5, 2022 2:49 pm
by dagger
This article in The Athletic - subscription required - is going to start a lot of discussion.
Basically, the theory some teams are embracing is that it is more efficient to lay off more pitches, to be selective. In the long run, it works out better than being a team of free-swingers. This is not a debate among fans, it's a strategy teams are embracing based on how they are interpreting the analytics. It may not be good for the game, and it's not easy to be so patient, but here we go.
Re: Swing less? It might be a virtue supported by analytics
Posted: Thu May 5, 2022 2:52 pm
by dagger
Here's. the gist of it
Very few hitters in the history of baseball have a positive run value on swings. Hall of Famers did good things; everyone else was a net negative for their team when they swung.
“Hitters should not swing,” said Kyle Boddy, proprietor of Driveline Baseball, an independent player development lab in Washington. His analysts even looked at the value of swinging at more strikes… and found it was negatively correlated with outcomes.
The best hitters and teams swing less. Just look at the teams that have swung the least at pitches outside the zone. They are quality offenses: the Dodgers, the Padres, the Yankees, the Giants and the underrated Athletics of the last few years are all over this key stat, making it a new “Moneyball,” if you will.
“I think the ‘Moneyball’ part of it, it was almost an eye-opening movie to people,” says Yankee slugger Joey Gallo, who is struggling right now but also swinging more than he ever has before in his career, during which he’s been one of the more patient hitters in baseball. “Just get on **** base. I don’t hit for a high average, I wish I did, but I know I can get on base, I can walk, I can contribute that way.”
Re: Swing less? It might be a virtue supported by analytics
Posted: Thu May 5, 2022 4:42 pm
by DelAbbot
Oh that's what you meant. Hyphen makes a big difference
I'm pretty sure this trend will not last. The league top brass wants the game to move away from Three True Outcomes (walk, strikeout, homerun), and more contact and action in the field. This is in opposition to a swing less patience based approach to batting.
Re: Swing less? It might be a virtue supported by analytics
Posted: Wed May 11, 2022 2:41 am
by Boogie!
I don't think this means don't swing at strikes. Isn't this generally just what a good hitter is. Have a good eye at the plate, have good pitch recognition, be selective and only swing at strikes.
Re: Swing less? It might be a virtue supported by analytics
Posted: Wed May 11, 2022 9:59 pm
by Lateral Quicks
I've always liked guys that get on base. Baseball is far more exciting when guys are on base. The long ball is fun, but rallies with lots of hits and walks are much more fun.
Re: Swing less? It might be a virtue supported by analytics
Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 5:00 am
by Raps in 4
Lateral Quicks wrote:Baseball is far more exciting when guys are on base.
Not when the Blue Jays are hitting.
Re: Swing less? It might be a virtue supported by analytics
Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 3:56 pm
by Duffman100
It's how I play TheShow.
Re: Swing less? It might be a virtue supported by analytics
Posted: Thu May 12, 2022 4:09 pm
by dagger
Chris Black has analyzed the RISP situation - Jays are last in MLB. It seems to come down to a lot of swinging at bad pitches, often early in the count.
Re: Swing less? It might be a virtue supported by analytics
Posted: Fri May 13, 2022 3:11 pm
by Brinbe
No crap. Remember the juggernaut Yankees and Sox teams of the late 90s/early to mid 2000s that were OBP machines?
It's always something I wish we put more emphasis on.