2023 MLB Draft Thread - Arjun Nimmala HS SS

[SharoneWright]

The Jays draft as per Prospects Live rankings:

#12 SS Arjun Nimmala
#51 RHP Juaron Watts-Brown
#72 OF Jace Bohrofen
#76 RHP Landen Maroudis
#107 Nick Goodwin
#200 LHP Connor O'Halloran
#211 OF Sam Shaw

Ya. I noticed that too. Pretty aggressive overall.

[HangTime]

IF you compared this to the NBA.
Is Nalammala the Swing for the fences pick like Bruno Caboclo (also the 20th pick).

[JTT]

IF you compared this to the NBA.
Is Nalammala the Swing for the fences pick like Bruno Caboclo (also the 20th pick).

The comparison is too difficult to make, really. There will be a number of 1st rounders who won’t even get a sniff of MLB action where in the NBA most first rounders are assured of playing at the top level. It is fair to say, I think that he has a high ceiling and a low floor but outside of the first few drafted, Baseball drafting is such a crapshoot.

[Schad]

IF you compared this to the NBA.
Is Nalammala the Swing for the fences pick like Bruno Caboclo (also the 20th pick).

Basically impossible to compare baseball and basketball in that regard. Every draftee, and in particular every high school draftee, comes with a much lower chance of having a substantive major league career than a player chosen at the same point in the NBA draft. Only two-thirds of players drafted in the first round will ever play in MLB at all, and a much smaller percentage will have meaningful careers. To pick a year out of a hat, in 2010:

21 of the 30 players selected went on to play at least one game in the majors (I'm treating non-signers as part of this class for the sake of simplicity, they all got re-drafted).

14 of the 30, less than half, posted a positive bWAR (the absolute minimum threshold for "did something") for their major league careers/careers to date.

10 of the 30 played in more MLB games than Bruno played NBA games (105), despite that only being two-thirds of an MLB season worth of games.

8 of the 30 posted more bWAR than Cavan Biggio has to date (and Biggio is still much earlier in his career), which seems like a good threshold for "had some impact but I mean...".

5 of the 30 have posted more than 20 bWAR, which means a long, successful career of being good at baseball.

4 of the 30 (Harper, Machado, Chris Sale and Christian Yelich) will almost definitely get HOF votes, with Harper/Machado much more likely than not (Sale would be if not for health, but I don't think his peak overcomes the fact that he was basically done by age 29).


So, is Nimmala a swing for the fences pick? Yeah. Because after the top five, and even often in the top five, all picks are.

And that's a really good 1st round, in which more than half of the players were outright busts, and only about a quarter of them had any sort of sustained success.

Despite this, because of the really silly way that MLB structures its finances, the draft is still the singlemost important date in baseball, because even a modest hit on a draftee means tens of millions of dollars that you can allocate elsewhere on the roster.

[-MetA4-]

IF you compared this to the NBA.
Is Nalammala the Swing for the fences pick like Bruno Caboclo (also the 20th pick).

No. Caboclo had barely played basketball and wasn't even an accomplished player in Brazil when he was drafted. Nimmala was the Gatorade Player of the Year in Florida, which is one of the strongest baseball States in the entire USA. The difference is that he can already play. He is high-risk for his own reasons (related the baseball), but this isn't some kid they found who has never swung a bat before.

[Parataxis]

5 of the 30 have posted more than 20 bWAR, which means a long, successful career of being good at baseball.

4 of the 30 (Harper, Machado, Chris Sale and Christian Yelich) will almost definitely get HOF votes, with Harper/Machado much more likely than not (Sale would be if not for health, but I don't think his peak overcomes the fact that he was basically done by age 29).

Out of interest, who's the fifth?

[Schad]

5 of the 30 have posted more than 20 bWAR, which means a long, successful career of being good at baseball.

4 of the 30 (Harper, Machado, Chris Sale and Christian Yelich) will almost definitely get HOF votes, with Harper/Machado much more likely than not (Sale would be if not for health, but I don't think his peak overcomes the fact that he was basically done by age 29).

Out of interest, who's the fifth?

Yasmani Grandal.

[dagger]

IF you compared this to the NBA.
Is Nalammala the Swing for the fences pick like Bruno Caboclo (also the 20th pick).

No. Caboclo had barely played basketball and wasn't even an accomplished player in Brazil when he was drafted. Nimmala was the Gatorade Player of the Year in Florida, which is one of the strongest baseball States in the entire USA. The difference is that he can already play. He is high-risk for his own reasons (related the baseball), but this isn't some kid they found who has never swung a bat before.

And Bruno was little known to many NBA franchises while presumably every single MLB franchise as well as any ratings services had a good look at him, in person. Each would have their own risk/reward evaluation for taking a 17 year old position player an higher than Toronto.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

2023 MLB draft recaps: Every American League team's top picks - ESPN

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays also aren't afraid to take upside prep prospects from Florida, with last year's first-rounder Brandon Barriera and 2021 over-slot RHP Irv Carter as recent examples, and current All-Star Bo Bichette one from yesteryear. They did it three more times this year, landing SS Arjun Nimmala (11), RHP Landen Maroudis (75) and 2B Sam Shaw (139).

Nimmala took a unique path to the top of the draft and he could be a star, but that upside comes with plenty of risk. Maroudis was the shortstop and often closer for one of the top prep teams in the country but showed three above-average pitches and the athletic ability to allow you to imagine him sticking as a starter. Shaw has big power and some feel to hit.

Oklahoma State RHP Juaron Watts-Brown (60) didn't take the big jump some expected this spring but is still a potential third/fourth starter. Michigan LHP Connor O'Halloran (251) is a solid command type, while Kansas State infielder Nick Goodwin (238) looks like a solid utility type. I still don't know why Arkansas RF Jace Bohrofen (59) lasted as long as he did, and if he signs for close to slot in the sixth round, it'll be one of the steals of the draft. He could be a low-end everyday type.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

Here’s which Draft picks the Toronto Blue Jays have signed - MLB.com

Each club has until 5 p.m. ET/2 PT on Tuesday, July 25, to come to terms with its Draft selections. If a player has exhausted his collegiate eligibility, he can sign at any time up until one week prior to the next year’s Draft.

Draft-and-follow picks -- high school and junior college players selected after the 10th round who attend a two-year college after the Draft -- can sign with their selecting teams for up to $250,000 up until a week prior to the following year’s Draft.

Players drafted from Round 11 on do not count against the bonus pools unless their signing bonus exceeds $150,000; any amount over that total will count against the pool.

Total bonus pool: $6,529,700

MLB rank: 26

[Cyrus]

Looks like we signed our 9th round canadian to overslot deal, according to the link Polo posted:

9 (274): Sam Shaw, LHP, Lambrick Park OF (BC) -- $285,000 (Pick value $175,900)

And signed some undrafted guys:

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and

https://auburntigers.com/news/2023/7/12/baseball-nate-larue-agrees-to-free-agent-deal-with-blue-jays.aspx

[dagger]

No. 7 pick Nick Goodwin has signed for $236,200 per Callis

[Cyrus]

No. 7 pick Nick Goodwin has signed for $236,200 per Callis

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Saved $2500 vs. slot.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

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?s=20

[-MetA4-]

Arjun Nimmala comes in at under-slot at $3 million! What a pick!

4th rounder HS RHP Landen Maroudis also signed (no official Tweet but there is a picture of him signing) and his deal will be over-slot.

[polo007]

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