2023 MLB Draft Thread - Arjun Nimmala HS SS

[dagger]

MetA4-

I think your point earlier about the Jays under the current regime batting 1000 on signing top 10 picks is spot on, and it's good to remember that AA twice failed to sign a first round pick (Beede and Bickford). AA also was asst GM in 2009 when they failed to sign Paxton. And while they were awarded comp picks in the succeeding years, all of these failures tied up first round money until the signing deadlines, and hence complicated the signing and perhaps selection processes. Each failure also meant a loss of development time, not to mention bad karma - the comp pick for Bickford turned into catcher Max Pentecost who flamed out after a slew of injuries. With Beede, for whatever reason, he had a stronger urge to go to Vanderbilt than turn pro, and I never got the idea that the Jays were particularly close to changing his mind. A failure of analysis and probably relationship as well. Not that Beede or Bickford turned into stellar pros, though both have made it to MLB rosters. Beede is now in Japan. Paxton, of course, has had a more impressive career.

Some might say that was AA, the riverboat gambler in him chasing what his scouts make him believe was highest upside. But the current regime has chased some high upside within the parametres of the current system by moving money around rather than chasing guys with sign-ability issues that the team underestimated.

[Cyrus]

Lifted from another site but found this interesting:

Blue Jays Draft in MLB since 2010.

Total signed picks: 353
Total picks that made MLB: 66 (18.7%)
Total Games (Batters): 4,996 (includes games they pitched)
Total bWAR (Batters): 58.6
bWAR/162 G (Batters): 1.9
Total Games (Pitchers): 4,768 (includes games they hit)
Total bWAR (Pitchers): 117.4
bWAR/32 G (Pitchers): 0.8

Broken down by GM:

Pat Gillick (1978-1994): 86/434 made the MLB (19.8%); 574.5 bWAR in 32,152 games (0.0179 bWAR/G).
Gord Ash (1995-2001): 29/193 made the MLB (15.0%); 260.5 bWAR in 17,825 games (0.0146 bWAR/G).
JPR's signed picks (2002-2009): 50/257 made the MLB (19.5%); 140.6 bWAR in 13,558 games (0.0104 bWAR/G)
AA (2010-2015): 46/190 made the MLB (24.2%); 144.9 bWAR in 8,122 games (0.0178 bWAR/G)
Atkins (2016-2022): 20/163 made the MLB (12.3%); 31.1 bWAR in 1,642 games (0.0189 bWAR/G)


GM drafts ranked by MLB success%:

1. AA (So far)
2. Gillick
3. Ricciardi
4. Ash
5. Atkins (Too early to tell)

GM drafts ranked by bWAR/G:

1. Atkins (Too early to tell)
2. Gillick
3. AA (So far)
4. Ash
5. Ricciardi

[Fairview4Life]

That bWar/g for Atkins vs success rate (being too early to tell) is excellent news.

[Aimless Outlook]

I'm curious what a graph would look like for each of the GMs plotting their Made MLB% and bWar/game as of Dec 31 of each year. Wondering if there are typical trends as the years progress post draft.

Maybe seeing the average draft pick # for the players that make it to MLB would also be interesting.

[Schad]

I'm curious what a graph would look like for each of the GMs plotting their Made MLB% and bWar/game as of Dec 31 of each year. Wondering if there are typical trends as the years progress post draft.

Maybe seeing the average draft pick # for the players that make it to MLB would also be interesting.

Just for something of a benchmark: there are several teams whose combined draft classes from 2016 - 2022 have produced less bWAR than Bo BIchette. The draft is weird because it's incredibly important and yet in general even teams that are good at it fail most of the time.

[Cyrus]

Jays signed:

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Also - BA has listed most of the Jays day 3 picks as signed, most for $150K
Rogers, Yeager, Orf, Sauer, Hornung & Peterson were all at $150K and Munson was $100K

[Fairview4Life]

Orf.

[Aimless Outlook]

I'm curious what a graph would look like for each of the GMs plotting their Made MLB% and bWar/game as of Dec 31 of each year. Wondering if there are typical trends as the years progress post draft.

Maybe seeing the average draft pick # for the players that make it to MLB would also be interesting.

Just for something of a benchmark: there are several teams whose combined draft classes from 2016 - 2022 have produced less bWAR than Bo BIchette. The draft is weird because it's incredibly important and yet in general even teams that are good at it fail most of the time.

My line of thought / theory to test on this was that bWar/game could potentially decrease over time as MLB % increases further from the draft. Borderline MLB or lower talent MLB players that provide low bWar per game may take a longer to make it to MLB than star level / high talent players. And their individually low bWar/game then lowers the overall average, as opposed to them not impacting bWar per game at all if they never make it to the MLB.

But I guess the age of the draftees could also impact this curve, just as much as talent/skill. From what you typed about Bo, it seems like one or two successful draftees can drastically impact the numbers.

Sorry, mostly just typing out the jumbled thoughts and ideas in my mind

[bluerap23]

MetA4-

I think your point earlier about the Jays under the current regime batting 1000 on signing top 10 picks is spot on, and it's good to remember that AA twice failed to sign a first round pick (Beede and Bickford). AA also was asst GM in 2009 when they failed to sign Paxton. And while they were awarded comp picks in the succeeding years, all of these failures tied up first round money until the signing deadlines, and hence complicated the signing and perhaps selection processes. Each failure also meant a loss of development time, not to mention bad karma - the comp pick for Bickford turned into catcher Max Pentecost who flamed out after a slew of injuries. With Beede, for whatever reason, he had a stronger urge to go to Vanderbilt than turn pro, and I never got the idea that the Jays were particularly close to changing his mind. A failure of analysis and probably relationship as well. Not that Beede or Bickford turned into stellar pros, though both have made it to MLB rosters. Beede is now in Japan. Paxton, of course, has had a more impressive career.

Some might say that was AA, the riverboat gambler in him chasing what his scouts make him believe was highest upside. But the current regime has chased some high upside within the parametres of the current system by moving money around rather than chasing guys with sign-ability issues that the team underestimated.

At least a bunch of AA’s picks became mlb players. Shatkins may excel at signing them, but picking them? Not so much.

[Fairview4Life]

MetA4-

I think your point earlier about the Jays under the current regime batting 1000 on signing top 10 picks is spot on, and it's good to remember that AA twice failed to sign a first round pick (Beede and Bickford). AA also was asst GM in 2009 when they failed to sign Paxton. And while they were awarded comp picks in the succeeding years, all of these failures tied up first round money until the signing deadlines, and hence complicated the signing and perhaps selection processes. Each failure also meant a loss of development time, not to mention bad karma - the comp pick for Bickford turned into catcher Max Pentecost who flamed out after a slew of injuries. With Beede, for whatever reason, he had a stronger urge to go to Vanderbilt than turn pro, and I never got the idea that the Jays were particularly close to changing his mind. A failure of analysis and probably relationship as well. Not that Beede or Bickford turned into stellar pros, though both have made it to MLB rosters. Beede is now in Japan. Paxton, of course, has had a more impressive career.

Some might say that was AA, the riverboat gambler in him chasing what his scouts make him believe was highest upside. But the current regime has chased some high upside within the parametres of the current system by moving money around rather than chasing guys with sign-ability issues that the team underestimated.

At least a bunch of AA’s picks became mlb players. Shatkins may excel at signing them, but picking them? Not so much.

Shatkins players haven’t had the time to make it to the show yet. The ones that have, have produced, but that’s probably to be expected since the ones that have made it up that fast are probably the better players of their cohorts anyway.

[Schad]

At least a bunch of AA’s picks became mlb players. Shatkins may excel at signing them, but picking them? Not so much.

Only two players in AA's tenure reached the majors with the Jays that have produced more than 10 bWAR to this point in their career: Marcus Stroman and Kevin Pillar. Three others produced more than that but were traded before reaching the majors: Syndergaard, Musgrove and DeSclafani, moved respectively in the Dickey, Happ and Reyes/Johnson/everything else deals. From 2010 - 2015, of our 18 picks in the first round/supplemental round, only 4 ever suited up for the Jays: Stroman, Sanchez, Dwight Smith Jr, and Deck McGuire (and Deck returned after having been released, pitching only 8 innings).

AA's drafting produced a decent number of major leaguers, but very few of those major leaguers were ever more than decent.

[polo007]

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[Cyrus]

Jays also signed udfa, LHP JJ Sanchez - Pitched in Division II in 2022 and NAIA this year. High K-rates and high walk rates.

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[Cyrus]

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Basically haven't signed the 3rd selection (Have basically 1 mill to offer him).
Their 14th round pick, 17th round pick , 18th round pick whom is a HS.

[polo007]

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[-MetA4-]

All major picks now signed:

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[Schad]

Good draft, especially considering that we lacked a 2nd rounder, and wrapped up our top 10 rounds quickly. Wouldn't expect the couple outstanding HSers to sign as my math has us with very little to offer them (beyond the $150k allotment), but I'm guessing that they were hard-sign hedges in any instance, so that's not unusual.