RealGM

JN wrote:Our magic number appears to be at 5 (with both Seattle and Houston). While a combination of 4 with Houston would allow us to finish ahead of them in a head to head tiebreaker, Houston could still back in ahead of us if it was a three way tie with Texas.

So there is no scenario that we could clinch a playoff spot after a win against New York on Wednesday. We could clinch later that night if we win the first two, and Seattle or Houston sweep each other.

There is one other scenario where we could clinch on Wednesday night.

Toronto wins first 2 games against New York (giving us 89 wins)
Houston loses 2 out of 3 against Seattle (giving them a max of 89 wins)
Texas sweeps LAA (giving them 90 wins)

We win any tie-breakers involving Houston as long as Texas is not involved,

Another crazy probability statistic … if we go only 1-5 this week our probability of making the playoffs is still over 50%!

Who do we want to win Seattle/Houston match ups? Houston ? Does it matter , or should we just cheer for a sweep either way.

Verlander is looking great after 2 innings and Houston is up 3 already. Would be nice to wrap this up on Thursday at the latest and set the rotation for wild card games.

Marinerds losing

Mak wrote:Who do we want to win Seattle/Houston match ups? Houston ? Does it matter , or should we just cheer for a sweep either way.

A sweep either way would be great, but I think a Seattle sweep works better for us. We have the tie-breaker against Houston already, which means Seattle winning both gives us a slightly better chance overall, but also slightly more likely we'll end up as the 3rd seed instead of the 2nd.

Unfortunate for us that Seattle is going down given we only have the TB vs Houston. Unless the Mariners end up getting swept, that will make clinching harder for us.

Better find a way to take a game against King or Cole.

The Angels starter just got hurt and they're bringing in a 9 ERA guy. Where do these scrub teams find these guys?

Randle McMurphy wrote:The Angels starter just got hurt and they're bringing in a 9 ERA guy. Where do these scrub teams find these guys?

On the other hand, the Mariners just brought in some guy named Trent Thornton with a 2.03 ERA! Where do teams find these guys indeed.

The Mariners season looks finished.

Randle McMurphy wrote:The Angels starter just got hurt and they're bringing in a 9 ERA guy. Where do these scrub teams find these guys?

Whelp, they took him out, and then the new new guy just gave up back-to-back-to-back homeruns. Ouch.

Parataxis wrote:

Randle McMurphy wrote:The Angels starter just got hurt and they're bringing in a 9 ERA guy. Where do these scrub teams find these guys?

Whelp, they took him out, and then the new new guy just gave up back-to-back-to-back homeruns. Ouch.

Oh well, could have been worse. It could have been four in a row.

Raps in 4 wrote:The Mariners season looks finished.

Now we'll be hoping the Astros go on to sweep this thing. Would have the dual effect of keeping the Rangers playing meaningful games as long as possible too.

Ms fans probably raging right now.

Assuming the Rangers sweep this garbage team this week, the Astros need to win another one of these Ms games for Texas not to clinch by Wednesday night. Really don't need to see the Mariners playing four straight against a Rangers team resting all their players.

Angels doing the job tonight. That could prove very important later this week if the Rangers are forced to try for longer.

Randle McMurphy wrote:Angels doing the job tonight. That could prove very important later this week if the Rangers are forced to try for longer.

There are 2 ways to look at it, that are both valid. I'm fine with Texas winning against the Angels because of the positive impact it does to eliminate Houston.

The Jays magic number against Houston is technically a 4 only because of the consequences of a 3 way tie with Texas. If Texas clears Houston, its just a 3. That is one less positive result we need to eliminate Houston (i.e. a win or a Houston loss). I think that is very significant.

Magic number this morning is still 4... but now its versus both Houston and Seattle. Although as mentioned above, in the likely scenario that Texas finishes ahead of Houston, that magic number against Houston would fall to 3. Hopefully we do what we need to do tonight, so its down to 2 tomorrow morning.

Was cheering for Houston last night and the sweep, but now that the sweep will not happen I think I will be cheering for Seattle tonight. I prefer the fact that our magic number is likely lower vs Houston due to head to head tie-breaker.

If Houston loses tonight, a realistic scenario comes into play where we don't have to win a single game the entire week. Houston would need to take 2 out of 3 in Arizona, a team fighting for their playoff lives as well.

So I heard on the radio today that even if we lose all 6 of these games against the Yankees and Ray's we still have a 55% chance to make the playoffs lmao. We literally only need 1 win in these last six to make it in. Pathetic.