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GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20

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Which predictions will be the closest to being right?

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Total votes: 2

Hottie McShotty
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#381 » by Hottie McShotty » Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:23 pm

tripa wrote:The Baltimore Mountcastles on Tuesday, smh.


We got them where we want them.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#382 » by tripa » Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:26 pm

Hottie McShotty wrote:
tripa wrote:Yankees bullpen gives up 4 runs in another loss. Love to see it.


The Yankees still have one of the better bullpens in the majors.


No, they dont.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#383 » by bluerap23 » Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:34 pm

dagger wrote:
bluerap23 wrote:
LBJKB24MJ23 wrote:Yup the loss of those bats hurt us this year. Vladdy basically a career worse performance this year at the plate? also doesn’t help either.

But if the Jays can somehow make it to the playoffs, the pitching is ready.


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Have to wonder if the lack of depth in the lineup is affecting Vlad and Kirk. Also have to wonder if the change in culture - away from Latin American - is having a negative impact.


Does every team have to have a Latin "culture" to succeed? I thought having good players, Latin or otherwise, is enough. It also doesn't explain why Chapman - post April - is actually tracking less than he was last year. Merrifield is having a nice age 35 season, and Bo his best ever. Was a Latin culture holding them back last season? I doubt it. Is Schneider holding Vlad back?

At a certain point, champions can have fun, but it's about the adults in the room playing up to form.


Atmosphere was way more fun last year in the dugout. Vlad was having fun. May not matter to you, but it may matter to him.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#384 » by Mehar » Sun Aug 20, 2023 11:00 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:2023 Matt Chapman with no runners on: .823 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman with a runner on: .738 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman with RISP: .667 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman with the bases loaded: .631 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman with 2 outs, RISP: .657 OPS

2023 Matt Chapman in low leverage: .824 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman in high leverage: .512 OPS

Have never seen anybody choke at the plate as much as this guy has.

The Yankees are in the market for a third baseman, and are rumoured to be making a strong play to get Chapman in the off-season. It would be great if that is the case. They will get rid of one ex-Jay in Josh Donaldson and his overpaid contract, and be stuck with Matt Chapman for many years. I am sure Yankees fans will enjoy seeing Chapman get hits with no runners on base, and struggle in high leverage situations. His defense is not what it once was, when he excelled in that area back in 2018. Hopefully, Boras can squeeze 6 years of out of New York, and the Yankees get saddled with another bad contract.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#385 » by Hottie McShotty » Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:01 am

tripa wrote:
Hottie McShotty wrote:
tripa wrote:Yankees bullpen gives up 4 runs in another loss. Love to see it.


The Yankees still have one of the better bullpens in the majors.


No, they dont.


Yes, they do. The stats don't lie.

https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/statistics/team-bullpenera/2023
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#386 » by tripa » Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:58 am

Season ERA, lol.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#387 » by Randle McMurphy » Mon Aug 21, 2023 1:46 am

Mehar wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:2023 Matt Chapman with no runners on: .823 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman with a runner on: .738 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman with RISP: .667 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman with the bases loaded: .631 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman with 2 outs, RISP: .657 OPS

2023 Matt Chapman in low leverage: .824 OPS
2023 Matt Chapman in high leverage: .512 OPS

Have never seen anybody choke at the plate as much as this guy has.

The Yankees are in the market for a third baseman, and are rumoured to be making a strong play to get Chapman in the off-season. It would be great if that is the case. They will get rid of one ex-Jay in Josh Donaldson and his overpaid contract, and be stuck with Matt Chapman for many years. I am sure Yankees fans will enjoy seeing Chapman get hits with no runners on base, and struggle in high leverage situations. His defense is not what it once was, when he excelled in that area back in 2018. Hopefully, Boras can squeeze 6 years of out of New York, and the Yankees get saddled with another bad contract.

If he's healthy enough to play, I'd actually take a flyer on Donaldson on a cheap 1 year deal with the idea that Orelvis/Barger are waiting in the wings.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#388 » by COY0607 » Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:35 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:
COY0607 wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:You're not too familiar with Scott Boras, are you?


lol, Chapman’s camp is likely to push for $150M+ in this bare market

And he'll get it. There are very few 3B as good as him.


I don’t think hes as good offensively as his numbers suggest, and also don’t think he’ll age well defensively.

Nevertheless I do think he’ll get his money - hopefully not from the Jays
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#389 » by Raps in 4 » Mon Aug 21, 2023 4:15 am

COY0607 wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:
COY0607 wrote:
lol, Chapman’s camp is likely to push for $150M+ in this bare market

And he'll get it. There are very few 3B as good as him.


I don’t think hes as good offensively as his numbers suggest, and also don’t think he’ll age well defensively.

Nevertheless I do think he’ll get his money - hopefully not from the Jays


The numbers suggest that he's an above average hitter and an elite defender. That is a very productive player.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#390 » by tripa » Mon Aug 21, 2023 10:51 am

Raps in 4 wrote:
COY0607 wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:And he'll get it. There are very few 3B as good as him.


I don’t think hes as good offensively as his numbers suggest, and also don’t think he’ll age well defensively.

Nevertheless I do think he’ll get his money - hopefully not from the Jays


The numbers suggest that he's an above average hitter and an elite defender. That is a very productive player.


People here are consumed by recency bias. They think hes a bad defender in big moments, even though theres no actual proof of that. Hes one of the best defenders in the MLB. The bat has been an issue this season but hes always been a streaky hitter. These same people were bringing up Chapman in MVP conversations in April for the same reason (recency bias).
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#391 » by Raps in 4 » Mon Aug 21, 2023 10:54 am

tripa wrote:
Raps in 4 wrote:
COY0607 wrote:
I don’t think hes as good offensively as his numbers suggest, and also don’t think he’ll age well defensively.

Nevertheless I do think he’ll get his money - hopefully not from the Jays


The numbers suggest that he's an above average hitter and an elite defender. That is a very productive player.


People here are consumed by recency bias. They think hes a bad defender in big moments, even though theres no actual proof of that. Hes one of the best defenders in the MLB. The bat has been an issue this season but hes always been a streaky hitter. These same people were bringing up Chapman in MVP conversations in April for the same reason (recency bias)


It's not even a down year for Chapman. His wRC+ is the same as It's been the last 3 seasons. Nobody should be surprised by his streakiness or lack of clutch hitting because he's literally been this player his entire career.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it's a down year for Varsho either. He's just a bad hitter.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#392 » by Raps in 4 » Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:21 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:
Raps in 4 wrote:
Mehar wrote:With the Mariners beating Houston 6-2 right now in the 7th, glad to be only half game back with a Seattle win. If only our hitters could get some timely insurance runs, to leave no margin for error for our solid Bullpen and Starters.


It'll be tough retaking that third WC spot. Seattle is blistering hot, while we are ice cold.

Seattle is going to pass Houston very shortly at the rate Julio is going right now. Jays are probably gonna miss out to 2 AL West teams.


It looks like they might pass Texas too.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#393 » by dagger » Mon Aug 21, 2023 2:17 pm

tripa wrote:
Raps in 4 wrote:
COY0607 wrote:
I don’t think hes as good offensively as his numbers suggest, and also don’t think he’ll age well defensively.

Nevertheless I do think he’ll get his money - hopefully not from the Jays


The numbers suggest that he's an above average hitter and an elite defender. That is a very productive player.


People here are consumed by recency bias. They think hes a bad defender in big moments, even though theres no actual proof of that. Hes one of the best defenders in the MLB. The bat has been an issue this season but hes always been a streaky hitter. These same people were bringing up Chapman in MVP conversations in April for the same reason (recency bias).


Recency in this case is four lean months after one great month. This isn't the biblical seven lean years after seven fat years. His is not the streakiness I would invest in. And he turns 31 in April. Do you really want to give a multi-year deal to him? We have a plethora of middle infield talents on the way up. None may be a good a defender as he has been, and might continue to be for another year or two. But all might be just as good if not better offensively - maybe differently, depending on whom we're talking about. It's not certain that anyone might be better offensively right out of the gate, but it's hard to see anyone being worse. Maybe find a bridge guy for a season to play 3B, but I would be inclined to take the plunge with whomever of the rookies is best coming out of spring training. I think the team is anticipating a platoon possibility with Orelvis and Barger, one a right handed hitter, one a left handed hitter.

Both Barger and Martinez are playing additional positions at Buffalo to increase their versatility. Orelvis is playing 2B/SS/3B, Barger 3B/RF/LF. Orelvis has more power, Barger has decent power and a big arm, ideal for 3B and RF. which means he can also play RF some so Springer can DH more as he ages. Versatility can give Barger and Orelvis enough reps to justify keeping both at the major league level, and play to their strengths offensively. Orelvis is elite against left handed pitching and falls off against righties. Barger is more even, but still better against righties than lefties (natch). Platoon them at 3B, then move them down in the order for games against pitchers that are their weakness. The platoon ought to slot well into the #5 spot, but otherwise, bat each one lower. At least that's the theory. They will make a few more errors at 3B to be sure,

My overriding idea would be to bring in the rookies next season, keep powder dry for free agency in the winter of 2024-25.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#394 » by bluerap23 » Mon Aug 21, 2023 2:38 pm

dagger wrote:
tripa wrote:
Raps in 4 wrote:
The numbers suggest that he's an above average hitter and an elite defender. That is a very productive player.


People here are consumed by recency bias. They think hes a bad defender in big moments, even though theres no actual proof of that. Hes one of the best defenders in the MLB. The bat has been an issue this season but hes always been a streaky hitter. These same people were bringing up Chapman in MVP conversations in April for the same reason (recency bias).


Recency in this case is four lean months after one great month.


People keep saying this. He is a streaky player, always has been, but it isn't true that he only had one good month. Take a look at his July. He is the same player he has always been.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#395 » by Ranger One » Mon Aug 21, 2023 6:30 pm

bluerap23 wrote:
dagger wrote:
tripa wrote:
People here are consumed by recency bias. They think hes a bad defender in big moments, even though theres no actual proof of that. Hes one of the best defenders in the MLB. The bat has been an issue this season but hes always been a streaky hitter. These same people were bringing up Chapman in MVP conversations in April for the same reason (recency bias).


Recency in this case is four lean months after one great month.


People keep saying this. He is a streaky player, always has been, but it isn't true that he only had one good month. Take a look at his July. He is the same player he has always been.


We should invest in more contact hitters, smarter overall hitters than just brainless bombers. We have way too many free swingers and guys hitting in the low low 200's on this team. Thats pretty unnaceptable imo, and is one of the core reason our offense went to the dumpster this year, especially with RISP. Way to many guys who either lack a good eye, lack discipline or are simply too low IQ to recognize a good and bad pitch. Too many strikeouts, and too many GIDP in this lineup. If we want to keep the core of Bo/Vladdy/Springer etc we need more guys like Merrifield around them and less guys like Varsho, Chapman etc. Getting rid of Kirk should have also been done last year. We dont need his fat ass clogging up the basepaths with his inability to go 1st to 3rd on a single or score from 2nd on a single. How many runs and in turn games has he cost us this year with his complete and utter lack of NORMAL speed?
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#396 » by LBJKB24MJ23 » Mon Aug 21, 2023 7:21 pm

Read on Twitter
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raf1995 wrote:I just don’t think he has that kind of potential. I think we will regret not trading him for a haul in a few years when he’s a mid-tier starter with nice playmaking and defense and a shaky jumper.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#397 » by Ranger One » Mon Aug 21, 2023 8:49 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:Vlad hurt? Make Belt the full-time 1B and DH Schneider.


Just saw the news today. They ACTUALLY listed him as Day to Day with "left finger discomfort"???? LMAO! Holy christ this league is soft. We are in the middle of a tightly contested playoff race! Tape that finger up and get back into the lineup ffs! Hockey players out there playing an actual physical sport with broken sternums, broken hands, broken legs, and here we have guys that barely move sitting out because of finger "discomfort". Christ almighty.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#398 » by COY0607 » Mon Aug 21, 2023 8:57 pm

^ might do everyone some good to have Vlad sit 3-4 days.

Get Schneider some regular playing time
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#399 » by Raps in 4 » Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:00 am

We might be a few games out of the WC spot after this series with the Orioles. Sadly, I don't expect our players to rise to the occasion.
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Re: GT: Jays @ Reds, Aug 18-20 

Post#400 » by Boogie! » Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:20 am

Ranger One wrote:
Randle McMurphy wrote:Vlad hurt? Make Belt the full-time 1B and DH Schneider.


Just saw the news today. They ACTUALLY listed him as Day to Day with "left finger discomfort"???? LMAO! Holy christ this league is soft. We are in the middle of a tightly contested playoff race! Tape that finger up and get back into the lineup ffs! Hockey players out there playing an actual physical sport with broken sternums, broken hands, broken legs, and here we have guys that barely move sitting out because of finger "discomfort". Christ almighty.


He's been pretty ass anyway. What difference does it make if he sits a few games
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