GT: Jays @ Rockies / Sept 1-3

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Why Biggio batting 2nd and Merrifield 6th? Don't tell me the lefty/righty bs

i'm perplexed by this too. lmao Schneider really doing a number on us. this guy is even worse than any previous manager in the last 10 years

Vladdy decided he would hit today and not ground into a lazy double play.

Horwitz great game.

[Raider917]

3-1 yankees

[Mehar]

Why Biggio batting 2nd and Merrifield 6th? Don't tell me the lefty/righty bs

i'm perplexed by this too. lmao Schneider really doing a number on us. this guy is even worse than any previous manager in the last 10 years

Vladdy decided he would hit today and not ground into a lazy double play.

Horwitz great game.

Absolute joke to see Biggio batting Second. Guy is also 3 for his last 24, and a couple of those hits if I remember correctly, were not even hard hit balls. After a few decent games last month, he is back to being the terrible hitter he has been all year, and the last 3 years also. We do not need to see this guy starting anymore the rest of the year. Worse comes to worse, put Horowitz at first and Vlad at 3rd if you have to, if it means no Biggio starting at 3rd.

[Randle McMurphy]

richards and mayza are the new loup and cecil

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

[PowerPlant1]

While the Jays won 2 of 3, this was a worrisome series.

If not for the callups, the Jays would likely have lost 2 of 3. Mainly a reflection of the pitching struggling recently. Gausman is not an ace the 2nd half of this season. I hope he doesn't start a critical WC game if he continues like this. Ryu and Bassitt have been the most dependable pitchers of late.

The Rockies do have some good offense and it is Coors field but giving up runs to this extent? This was a bad team that the Jays had to compete hard against. Worrisome going forward.

[Raps in 4]

While the Jays won 2 of 3, this was a worrisome series.

If not for the callups, the Jays would likely have lost 2 of 3. Mainly a reflection of the pitching struggling recently. Gausman is not an ace the 2nd half of this season. I hope he doesn't start a critical WC game if he continues like this. Ryu and Bassitt have been the most dependable pitchers of late.

The Rockies do have some good offense and it is Coors field but giving up runs to this extent? This was a bad team that the Jays had to compete hard against. Worrisome going forward.

I'd still trust Gausman in a WC opener over anyone else on the team.

[Raps in 4]

Jays still have a legit chance, of course it'll depend on how well they play against the Rays and Yankees.. like always.

Imagine if we went better than 5-4 against Cleveland, Washington, and Colorado.

[JN]

Jays still have a legit chance, of course it'll depend on how well they play against the Rays and Yankees.. like always.

We still have a very legit chance -- it could go either way. Many people here have been acting like we have no chance when we have a decent chance. This doesn't mean we haven't been awfully frustrating and blew many games. But the concepts of "frustration" and making playoffs are not mutually exclusive.

Too many people are solely negative "realistic" on this board -- there is room for a mix of negative "realistic" but also positive "realistic" but some just don't want to go there. Not all 3 teams ahead of us are likely to play great to close.

Of course if we fall a game or 2 short, there will be no shortage of blame related to specific games or players to point at as being disappointing. For example the 5-4 is disappointing -- at the same time we have gained 2 games the last 5 days somehow.

[JN]

If we could somehow sweep Oakland, we would be guaranteed to be back in a playoff position on Thursday morning. (one of Texas or Houston will lose 2 of its next 3 games)

[Raps in 4]

Too many people are solely negative "realistic" on this board -- there is room for a mix of negative "realistic" but also positive "realistic" but some just don't want to go there. Not all 3 teams ahead of us are likely to play great to close.

The problem is, we also need to not suck in our upcoming games, and that's a tall order given our play for a few months now.

[Boogie!]

Too many people are solely negative "realistic" on this board -- there is room for a mix of negative "realistic" but also positive "realistic" but some just don't want to go there. Not all 3 teams ahead of us are likely to play great to close.

The problem is, we also need to not suck in our upcoming games, and that's a tall order given our play for a few months now.

Also, we're already behind in the standings. Meaning all the other teams have to do is have the exact same record as us and were eliminated. So even if they play .500 ball and we play .500 were ****. And that's being optimistic in terms of our performance. Basically we have to play great and they have to suck in order for us to have a chance. And like you mentioned based on how we've been playing and how the other teams have been playing, it's not realistic.

[PowerPlant1]

While the Jays won 2 of 3, this was a worrisome series.

If not for the callups, the Jays would likely have lost 2 of 3. Mainly a reflection of the pitching struggling recently. Gausman is not an ace the 2nd half of this season. I hope he doesn't start a critical WC game if he continues like this. Ryu and Bassitt have been the most dependable pitchers of late.

The Rockies do have some good offense and it is Coors field but giving up runs to this extent? This was a bad team that the Jays had to compete hard against. Worrisome going forward.

I'd still trust Gausman in a WC opener over anyone else on the team.

We almost lost this series due to his bad start against a really bad team.

Great starters are entitled to bad starts and bad stretches but it has been a struggle since the all star break. I am hopeful he can turn it around but I don't ignore recent results.

[JN]

Too many people are solely negative "realistic" on this board -- there is room for a mix of negative "realistic" but also positive "realistic" but some just don't want to go there. Not all 3 teams ahead of us are likely to play great to close.

The problem is, we also need to not suck in our upcoming games, and that's a tall order given our play for a few months now.

Also, we're already behind in the standings. Meaning all the other teams have to do is have the exact same record as us and were eliminated. So even if they play .500 ball and we play .500 were ****. And that's being optimistic in terms of our performance. Basically we have to play great and they have to suck in order for us to have a chance. And like you mentioned based on how we've been playing and how the other teams have been playing, it's not realistic.

I'm not saying we are getting in.
I am saying we have a decent chance -- in my view "decent" means something around 30% probability or a bit higher.

How does the bolded comment above make any sense. We are 1.5 games behind 2 teams... if we play great we don't need a team to suck to catch them. For example if you define "great" for the Jays at a modest 14-10, that means Houston has to close 14-11 to stay ahead of us (since we have the tiebreaker). I'm interested in knowing how 14-10 can be great, but 14-11 "sucks".

Baseball reference had us at 56% probability to get in the playoffs before today.
Fangraphs had us at 53% probability to get in the playoffs after today.
I think both models are a somewhat high (not sure if they fully appreciate injuries -- I suspect Fangraphs might), but it also suggests saying we have little or chance is being unrealistic.

The thing is we don't need to pass 3 teams. We only need to pass 1 of 3 teams. ... that is the reason our odds in these models are so good despite currently being out of the postseason. We likely don't need to play great to pass 1 of 3 teams. Only 1 team has to slump to close, which is always a possibility. For example Texas is 7-13 in their last 20 games.

Of course there is a chance we totally blow, or finish .500... but its also quite possible we go 13-11, 14-10, 15-9 and in that scenario pass one of 3 teams that go modest. These combination of scenarios is why are odds are still quite good.

Of course there are scenarios that we play very well and miss.
But there are plausible scenarios that we don't and still get in.
That is what probabilities attempt to measure.

[JN]

Also claiming that going .500 is our very optimistic scenario is sort of silly.
.500 is certainly a fair expected win% to close - but its not the very optimistic scenario either.

Look I'm not trying to disagree we have been disappointing, frustrating, poorly managed at times, have an anger causing first baseman, are stupid baserunners, have idiot utility infielders who can't hit and swing at 3-0, do idiotic double steals on 3-0 counts, or have an underperforming GM or development system.

But probabilities are probabilities. You can't let your negative views on this very frustrating team, distort the realities that still exist.

[dagger]

The problem is, we also need to not suck in our upcoming games, and that's a tall order given our play for a few months now.

Also, we're already behind in the standings. Meaning all the other teams have to do is have the exact same record as us and were eliminated. So even if they play .500 ball and we play .500 were ****. And that's being optimistic in terms of our performance. Basically we have to play great and they have to suck in order for us to have a chance. And like you mentioned based on how we've been playing and how the other teams have been playing, it's not realistic.

I'm not saying we are getting in.
I am saying we have a decent chance -- in my view "decent" means something around 30% probability or a bit higher.

How does the bolded comment above make any sense. We are 1.5 games behind 2 teams... if we play great we don't need a team to suck to catch them. For example if you define "great" for the Jays at a modest 14-10, that means Houston has to close 14-11 to stay ahead of us (since we have the tiebreaker). I'm interested in knowing how 14-10 can be great, but 14-11 "sucks".

Baseball reference had us at 56% probability to get in the playoffs before today.
Fangraphs had us at 53% probability to get in the playoffs after today.
I think both models are a somewhat high (not sure if they fully appreciate injuries -- I suspect Fangraphs might), but it also suggests saying we have little or chance is being unrealistic.

The thing is we don't need to pass 3 teams. We only need to pass 1 of 3 teams. ... that is the reason our odds in these models are so good despite currently being out of the postseason. We likely don't need to play great to pass 1 of 3 teams. Only 1 team has to slump to close, which is always a possibility. For example Texas is 7-13 in their last 20 games.

Of course there is a chance we totally blow, or finish .500... but its also quite possible we go 13-11, 14-10, 15-9 and in that scenario pass one of 3 teams that go modest. These combination of scenarios is why are odds are still quite good.

Of course there are scenarios that we play very well and miss.
But there are plausible scenarios that we don't and still get in.
That is what probabilities attempt to measure.

An interesting thing to watch is the Houston-Texas series beginning today because if the Jays sweep the As - I know, they will probably boot at least one game- they will be at worst a half game out of a playoff spot by the time they return for the Royals series here this weekend.


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[JN]

Also, we're already behind in the standings. Meaning all the other teams have to do is have the exact same record as us and were eliminated. So even if they play .500 ball and we play .500 were ****. And that's being optimistic in terms of our performance. Basically we have to play great and they have to suck in order for us to have a chance. And like you mentioned based on how we've been playing and how the other teams have been playing, it's not realistic.

I'm not saying we are getting in.
I am saying we have a decent chance -- in my view "decent" means something around 30% probability or a bit higher.

How does the bolded comment above make any sense. We are 1.5 games behind 2 teams... if we play great we don't need a team to suck to catch them. For example if you define "great" for the Jays at a modest 14-10, that means Houston has to close 14-11 to stay ahead of us (since we have the tiebreaker). I'm interested in knowing how 14-10 can be great, but 14-11 "sucks".

Baseball reference had us at 56% probability to get in the playoffs before today.
Fangraphs had us at 53% probability to get in the playoffs after today.
I think both models are a somewhat high (not sure if they fully appreciate injuries -- I suspect Fangraphs might), but it also suggests saying we have little or chance is being unrealistic.

The thing is we don't need to pass 3 teams. We only need to pass 1 of 3 teams. ... that is the reason our odds in these models are so good despite currently being out of the postseason. We likely don't need to play great to pass 1 of 3 teams. Only 1 team has to slump to close, which is always a possibility. For example Texas is 7-13 in their last 20 games.

Of course there is a chance we totally blow, or finish .500... but its also quite possible we go 13-11, 14-10, 15-9 and in that scenario pass one of 3 teams that go modest. These combination of scenarios is why are odds are still quite good.

Of course there are scenarios that we play very well and miss.
But there are plausible scenarios that we don't and still get in.
That is what probabilities attempt to measure.

An interesting thing to watch is the Houston-Texas series beginning today because if the Jays sweep the As - I know, they will probably boot at least one game- they will be at worst a half game out of a playoff spot by the time they return for the Royals series here this weekend.


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Actually if the Jays sweep they will be guaranteed to be in a playoff spot by Thursday. That is because one of the Rangers or Houston has to go 1-2 or 0-3 in their series.

[Raps in 4]

I'm not saying we are getting in.
I am saying we have a decent chance -- in my view "decent" means something around 30% probability or a bit higher.

How does the bolded comment above make any sense. We are 1.5 games behind 2 teams... if we play great we don't need a team to suck to catch them. For example if you define "great" for the Jays at a modest 14-10, that means Houston has to close 14-11 to stay ahead of us (since we have the tiebreaker). I'm interested in knowing how 14-10 can be great, but 14-11 "sucks".

Baseball reference had us at 56% probability to get in the playoffs before today.
Fangraphs had us at 53% probability to get in the playoffs after today.
I think both models are a somewhat high (not sure if they fully appreciate injuries -- I suspect Fangraphs might), but it also suggests saying we have little or chance is being unrealistic.

The thing is we don't need to pass 3 teams. We only need to pass 1 of 3 teams. ... that is the reason our odds in these models are so good despite currently being out of the postseason. We likely don't need to play great to pass 1 of 3 teams. Only 1 team has to slump to close, which is always a possibility. For example Texas is 7-13 in their last 20 games.

Of course there is a chance we totally blow, or finish .500... but its also quite possible we go 13-11, 14-10, 15-9 and in that scenario pass one of 3 teams that go modest. These combination of scenarios is why are odds are still quite good.

Of course there are scenarios that we play very well and miss.
But there are plausible scenarios that we don't and still get in.
That is what probabilities attempt to measure.

An interesting thing to watch is the Houston-Texas series beginning today because if the Jays sweep the As - I know, they will probably boot at least one game- they will be at worst a half game out of a playoff spot by the time they return for the Royals series here this weekend.


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Actually if the Jays sweep they will be guaranteed to be in a playoff spot by Thursday. That is because one of the Rangers or Houston has to go 1-2 or 0-3 in their series.

Sweeping the A's is asking a lot of this team. We struggled mightily against the Guardians, Nationals, and Rockies.

[Boogie!]

So Schneider is not playing again for whatever reason?

[hst420]

John Schneider's moves never seem to work out.