dagger wrote:Toronto's major pros teams (sorry CFL, MLS) are all on treadmills. The usual response to getting off the treadmill is to take a step back for a year or two, dump some older assets, bulk up through a draft or trade, etc etc, then hopefully begin moving forward and eventually passing where the team is today.
With the Leafs, they are living a high enough treadmill that tinkering in a hard-salary-cap league might get them a fair bit further in the playoffs. I don't expect the organization to take a step back, not for the coming season or even the one after.
With the Raptors, they ought to deal off Siakam or OG for draft capital or prospects. At least in the NBA, one good draft can have a restorative effect. Indiana has had a pair of good drafts and a nice trade acquisition (Haliburton) and looks like it sabot to get off its treadmill and move up.
The Jays are in a harder spot. The farm system isn't as bad as some here think, but it doesn't offer an instant remedy. As a middle-of-the-pack treadmill team the past few years, they aren't drafting high enough to get a kind of strong, even instant turnaround prospects like, say Baltimore has. And there is no way Rogers is going to allow the team to undergo such a strip-down rebuild. The modus operandi of this management in maintaining a treadmill team has been to rely on free agency and trades much more than generating internal replacements. Recently, they have traded away the team's top prospect as well as two recent first round picks for Berrios (a good use of prospect capital),Varsho (a bad use of prospect capital) and Chapman (good use of prospect capital with rapidly declining value, Hoglund may yet excel). The previous regime didn't even draft as well and traded away prospects liberally, but lucked into incredible career rebounds by Bautista and Encarnation. Both were basically discards. Then AA traded for Donaldson (solid) and away the team went! And he stripped down the farm system (another first rounder dumped) to try to get over the top. It was a lot more fun, and the offence had character and excitement, from bat flips to parrots. But its long-term effect was to keep the team in contention for two seasons, then the burdens he placed on the organization, like Tulo's monster dead money, forced a sort of rebuild.
The key to getting off the treadmill, to be the Astros or Braves or Dodgers - teams that never take a big step back from contention, only small ones for shorter periods, is internal development, prioritizing getting more good prospects and getting more of them to the major league level before dealing off prospects from surpluses to put the cherry on the sundae. But if you are an organization in a rush to keep raising ticket prices and keeping big crowds in the building, you act impatiently. Impatience is a great way to remain on a treadmill.
Now, would I blow this team up? It's harder in baseball because you can't trade a star for draft picks. You can trade for prospects, but the best available package might not address the weaknesses in the developmental pipeline as opposed to having more high draft picks to make your own choices. Another team's prospect package might just create or worsen bottlenecks that impact playing time.
The Jays system is weak on right handed pitching prospects and lacks a good centre fielder. It's got some decent left-handed pitching prospects (Tiedemann, Macko and Barriera if he's fit). Landen Maraudis is the highest ranked RHP and he's 18, so far away from the major.
So my thoughts? The lynchpin is Orelvis Martinez. I would dump all the older veteran position players except Springer because were stuck with his deal and Kiermaier if wants another short term deal. So, bye to Whit, Belt and Chapman. I wouldn't go out and sign pricey free agents unless they offer sufficient value, and in the case of third base, with such a poor quality/quantity out there, I'd rather figure it out with internal candidates. I'd look at Davis Schneider as a left fielder/occasional second baseman, and let Martinez and Addison Barger have at the 2B and 3B jobs. If the team takes a step back, so be it, it still won't be a big one. The Jays must think a lot of both of them, because so far, Atkins isn't willing to screw with their service time.
Both New Hampshire and Buffalo have had no trouble grinding out runs, even when players have been promoted off the roster. Their hitting coaches - Matt Hague and Mitch Huckabay – are young and very well-regarded, and I'd bring them both up next season to replace Guillermo Martinez and Hudgens. Hague has major league playing experience, Huckabay is kind of a coaching phenom whom the Jays plucked from an assistant's role at Sam Houston University two years ago. For that matter, all of the hitting coaches down through Dunedin have a case for promotion, and there might be someone in a development role who also merits consideration.
For that reason, I'm not trading Vlad. I want to see what a different set of eyes and a different approach can do for him At the beginning of the minor league season, Orelvis Martinez was a one-trick pony with a ton of power and a huge K rate, reflecting little appreciation for the strike zone and how to manage an at bat for better effect. He was falling off the top prospect radar, threatening to become a $4 million bonus baby bust. But the coaching and development staff worked on hm, getting him to use the whole field and take what pitchers give him. As his season turned around, his HR rate slowed a bit but his overall offensive contribution increased, and his top prospect value was restored. He had a terrible April and a meh May, but since then, his overall game improvement has been strong. There is a question of which infield position he can fill, some think he can handle 3B, others suggest he would be best at 2B. I mean, he's not a defensive wizard, but probably adequate. He has to work more hitting right handers, so there would continue to be a learning curve in the majors, but if the team ever wants off the treadmill without a full, multi-year rebuild, it has to be serious about prioritizing the introduction of guys like him. Here's his grand slam from last night. He also had a double.
https://www.milb.com/video/orelvis-martinez-s-grand-slam?t=milb-default-vtp
Depending on how the team views the offseason - try to plug holes with trades/free agents or go with prospects and recent callups - would decide whether I would bring back John Schneider. If it's to be a veteran team again, get rid of Schneider. With a younger team, I go with him for one more season unless someone like Kevin Cash hits the market. If. the Jays are lucky, they might over achieve with youth and I think a low expectations season working in young guys is a better situation for Schneider than a team comprised largely of mercenary older veterans.
bruh , whats the TL;DR version of this?
