Retool or rebuild? How much would you sell and when (deadline or offseason?)

[dagger]

I think it's safe to say now that the playoff boat has sailed. Hopefully, there is no lifeboat for Atkins and Schneider. (I'm not Schneider's worst critic, but a new GM would need to have the ability to appoint his own manager.)

The Jays, for all the money Rogers is spending on talent, still won't have a lot of off-season wiggle room if they try to bring back this lineup. They have $130 million or so tied up in eight guys, and will have to replace a number of current fee agents (Kikuchi, Garcia, Turner) whether they are moved at the deadline or allowed to play out the season here.

This is next year's current guarantees:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/overview/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total2

This doesn't include any arbitrations or pre-arbitration salaries - so free agency doesn't allow that much to improve the team, maybe enough to tread water around 81 wins. Certainly not to the extent that it makes them competitive with the Orioles or Yankees in 2025. (Springer's contract is a huge albatross.)

I would focus on being competitive for more than a third wildcard by the 2026 season. So a bigger turnover of this roster. Tney must give the young guys a chance to get acclimated for 2025. One priority will be to find out what they have in Leo Jimenez as a potential Bo replacement. Also, if there is an interesting sell high return on Kiner-Falefa, do so.

My initial thought would be to try harder to get an extension for Vlad and move Bo, because there are some good SS prospects in the system - maybe not as good as Bo ultimately, or at least past versions of him - but there are no real power hitters of note that come even close to Vlad. And Vlad will sell some tickets for Rogers. Even without speaking English, Vlad makes better contact with the fan base with his personality than Bo. I'd consider trading a starter other than Kikuchi who is definitely a deadline sell. Given Bassitt's age and $$$, I'd lean towards him. Beef up the farm a bit, let the losing continue for the balance of the season under an interim manager to improve draft position. The Jays have supposedly lined up one of the best internationals for the next Jan signing period, so farm picture might ultimately improve. For the balance of 2024, use Rodriguez and Francis as starters, next season Macko and Tiedemann might come into play as well. Maybe.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

ya i think Atkins and Schneider are gone by years end.

you have to think they are trying to recoup Springer's value somehow. I would probably trade away Bassitt and Kikuchi to replenish the farm and maybe even entertain a Bo Bichette trade to really amp up the farm system. Turner, Kiermaier, Garcia, Richards, IKF, Green, Springer trades should be explored, even if we pay all of Springer's salary for this current year to the team we trade him to etc.

[Randle McMurphy]

Shapiro isn't going anywhere (unless by his own choice) and he's certainly not going to be rebuilding after how much he's convinced Rogers to spend on this organization (on the team and on the ballpark).

An extension for either Vlad or Bo is a dreadful idea considering what they have been to this point in their careers, but I fully expect the Jays will try to keep one and try for mediocrity over the next few years. Mediocrity might be enough to get in the playoffs these days.

[dagger]

Shapiro isn't going anywhere (unless by his own choice) and he's certainly not going to be rebuilding after how much he's convinced Rogers to spend on this organization (on the team and on the ballpark).

An extension for either Vlad or Bo is a dreadful idea considering what they have been to this point in their careers, but I fully expect the Jays will try to keep one and try for mediocrity over the next few years. Mediocrity might be enough to get in the playoffs these days.

I can't see a strip down, but if you don't extend Vlad and Bo, they walk anyway in a year and the Jays will end up in a rather big rebuild anyway. It may be that this team has degraded in talent to the point where we are arguing about semantics

[Randle McMurphy]

Shapiro isn't going anywhere (unless by his own choice) and he's certainly not going to be rebuilding after how much he's convinced Rogers to spend on this organization (on the team and on the ballpark).

An extension for either Vlad or Bo is a dreadful idea considering what they have been to this point in their careers, but I fully expect the Jays will try to keep one and try for mediocrity over the next few years. Mediocrity might be enough to get in the playoffs these days.

I can't see a strip down, but if you don't extend Vlad and Bo, they walk anyway in a year and the Jays will end up in a rather big rebuild anyway. It may be that this team has degraded in talent to the point where we are arguing about semantics

It remains to fully be seen, but is Horwitz that much of a downgrade from what Vlad has been for the better part of three seasons now? Is he even a downgrade at all? Vlad is one of the worst defenders and baserunners in baseball and hasn't been able to elevate a fastball since 2021.

I don't think the lack of an extension precludes this particular FO from still attempting to win 85 games going forward.

[Mehar]

ya i think Atkins and Schneider are gone by years end.

you have to think they are trying to recoup Springer's value somehow. I would probably trade away Bassitt and Kikuchi to replenish the farm and maybe even entertain a Bo Bichette trade to really amp up the farm system. Turner, Kiermaier, Garcia, Richards, IKF, Green, Springer trades should be explored, even if we pay all of Springer's salary for this current year to the team we trade him to etc.

You are not getting back much for Springer, as he is arguably one of the worst hitters in all of baseball right now. He still has two more years left on his deal (paying him 22.5 million in 2025 and 2026), and no team will touch that (even if we pay all of Springer's Salary for this year). I am just inclined to make him a bench player the rest of the year, and hope he can be a lot better in 2025.

Come this time next year, if Springer is still performing how he is now, you just have to DFA him like Houston did recently by releasing and eating the 30 million of former AL MVP Abreu. I would like to keep Danny Jansen around, and try to extend him or sign him back in the off-season. No way I feel comfortable with Alejandro Kirk being the full-time Starting Catcher, given how terrible he has been offensively since the second half of 2022. I agree with everything else you mentioned, and I would also mention Kevin Gausman as a guy you can dangle and get a good return for from a playoff contender.

[Cyrus]

They won't rebuild, not after spending half billion dollars on renovation of the stadium.

They'll look at what quick retool to justify them extra $ they are asking for seats and boxes. No one is going to pay for v that in multi year rebuild.

Problem is this roster isn't quick tweak / retool away from actually competing. They can't hit, certainly pitching worse and I'm not even sure they are great defensively either besides varsho.

[Lateral Quicks]

Aiming to compete for the third wildcard in 2026 seems like a reasonable and achievable plan to me, assuming of course that Atkins is canned.

I would gut the pitching staff. Kikuchi and Bassitt are goners. Gausman probably won't want to stay for a rebuild, so he goes too. If That should bring quite the haul of prospects. Berrios were willing to stay, it would be good to keep a vet like him around to mentor the younger guys.

I think you look to keep Vlad and hope a new hitting coach can unleash more of his power/talent. He'll always be overpaid due to his name, but the reality is his performance isn't deserving of a mega contract for a huge AAV. If he's willing to sign for $20MM-$25MM AAV, I'd look to keep him. He does sell tickets, and there is still a lot of untapped potential there.

If Jansen is willing to sign for no more than 3-4 years, I'd look to sign him too. Injuries and running so hot and cold with the bat should limit his salary, and he's a good clubhouse guy. With better health maybe he has another gear to reach with the bat, too.

If the market is still good for Bichette, I think you move him. If it's really depressed, I think you keep him until the 2025 deadline in the hopes he regains his form. Again, you have to hope a better hitting coach can help him out.

No other veteran hitters have much of any value, but if you can get something for any of them, do it.

Obviously all the relievers are up for sale, including Romano.

Going forward, your lineup features Vlad/Jansen/Schneider/Horwitz/Clement/Barger. 2025 is a rebuilding year to see who you have in the younger guys and all the prospects you bring in via the firesale, and then open the piggy bank in 2026 to fill holes.

[Michael Bradley]

No chance they rebuild. Like, literally zero % chance. Even if Shapiro was fired tomorrow, the mandate for whoever took over would be to get the team into contention in 2025. That's just the way Rogers operates in general, but certainly more so now after the stadium renovations.

I guess with the extra WC spot, contending isn't a huge huge hill to climb, but this roster needs quite a bit of work. The O's, Yankees, and Red Sox aren't going away any time soon, and the Rays are .500 even with all their injuries and legal issues with Franco. They'll probably bounce back next year too. It's going to be tough.

[Asianiac_24]

Trade: Kikuchi, Garcia, Romano, Bassitt, Gausman, Bichette, Turner, KK, Springer (if possible), Jansen (probably won't resign him).

Move Vlad to 3B and hope he figures it out to increase his value. Even if he stays put as a hitter, if he can play 3B well his value automatically jumps. Spencer Horwitz to 1B.

[bluerap23]

I'm not even that concerned about the mlb team. They should trade guys with short term and value like Garcia, Romano, Kikuchi, etc.

Priority one is replacing management. Ideally Shapiro and Atkins, but I'd settle for Atkins. Give Click decision making authority.

Rebuild the scouting department and get the farm system back to functional.

[JN]

I think they will move their pending FA's but that's it. Nothing big beyond that, and they will sell the fans a re-tool for 2025 with some Free-Agents, and that they "still believe" in the core of the team

Kikuchi
Garcia
Turner
KK
Jansen
Richards

Which isn't going to net too much overall.

I suppose Jordan Romano is interesting - will the Jays want to offer him $7M + in Arb next year.

[Raps in 4]

Rebuild. Everyone. Yesterday.

What will happen is nothing, of course. Because **** you Rogers.

[dagger]

No chance they rebuild. Like, literally zero % chance. Even if Shapiro was fired tomorrow, the mandate for whoever took over would be to get the team into contention in 2025. That's just the way Rogers operates in general, but certainly more so now after the stadium renovations.

I guess with the extra WC spot, contending isn't a huge huge hill to climb, but this roster needs quite a bit of work. The O's, Yankees, and Red Sox aren't going away any time soon, and the Rays are .500 even with all their injuries and legal issues with Franco. They'll probably bounce back next year too. It's going to be tough.

The problem is they don;t have the financial leeway or prospect capital to vault from where this team is to something like contention in a year.

[Lateral Quicks]

A 38-46 record, and 6.5 games back of the third wildcard. Call it a retool or rebuild, but it needs to be done. And Atkins should have absolutely no role in it.

[ItsDanger]

When no one paid the price for last season's failure, expect the situation to worsen. And it did.

[Cyrus]

Getting Rid of Atkins, isn't going to solve the problem. The whole group think tank group, analytics, and such that they heavily lean on, needs to be re-examined.

Yes Atkins needs to go, but I highly doubt Atkins is making these terrible deals and such on his own, while his analytics and others in the whole baseball ops is saying something else. It's likely all confirming the bias, thoughts they had in making said moves...

[Lateral Quicks]

Getting Rid of Atkins, isn't going to solve the problem. The whole group think tank group, analytics, and such that they heavily lean on, needs to be re-examined.

Yes Atkins needs to go, but I highly doubt Atkins is making these terrible deals and such on his own, while his analytics and others in the whole baseball ops is saying something else. It's likely all confirming the bias, thoughts they had in making said moves...

When I say Atkins has to go, I assume that is a first domino to fall. I assume a new GM would insist on freedom to build their own staff, including the analytics team, scouting, and coaching.

[Raps in 4]

No chance they rebuild. Like, literally zero % chance. Even if Shapiro was fired tomorrow, the mandate for whoever took over would be to get the team into contention in 2025. That's just the way Rogers operates in general, but certainly more so now after the stadium renovations.

I guess with the extra WC spot, contending isn't a huge huge hill to climb, but this roster needs quite a bit of work. The O's, Yankees, and Red Sox aren't going away any time soon, and the Rays are .500 even with all their injuries and legal issues with Franco. They'll probably bounce back next year too. It's going to be tough.

The problem is they don;t have the financial leeway or prospect capital to vault from where this team is to something like contention in a year.

The bigger problem is that they don't care. Rogers is perfectly happy selling mediocrity. Look at the all people turning out to watch this dumpster fire every day.

[Raps in 4]

Getting Rid of Atkins, isn't going to solve the problem. The whole group think tank group, analytics, and such that they heavily lean on, needs to be re-examined.

Yes Atkins needs to go, but I highly doubt Atkins is making these terrible deals and such on his own, while his analytics and others in the whole baseball ops is saying something else. It's likely all confirming the bias, thoughts they had in making said moves...

When I say Atkins has to go, I assume that is a first domino to fall. I assume a new GM would insist on freedom to build their own staff, including the analytics team, scouting, and coaching.

Shapiro will just bring in another incompetent yes-man to replace him. And if Shapiro goes, and he must if we want any kind of change, Ed will just bring in another idiot like him. This team will never accomplish anything as long as Rogers has unchecked power over its operations.

Obviously I want Shapiro and Atkins gone on the off-chance Rogers hires a competent executive, but I'm done being hopeful with this team.