2024 MLB Draft Thread -Jays Pick 20th - July 14th, 2024 - 5 pm

[Cyrus]

Well since this year is lost cause, guess we can start looking down the road (4-6 years) at potential future jays.


This year’s draft takes place from July 14-16. Day one starts at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 14 and will include the first two rounds, as well as the first two supplemental rounds. The second day of the draft will be rounds 3-10, and the third day of the draft will be rounds 11-20. Days two and three both start at 12 p.m. ET.

While scouts don’t believe this year’s draft class is as talented as the loaded 2023 draft was a year ago, there is still a solid top tier of players led by Georgia outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon and Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana.

Condon and Bazzana are viewed by most scouts as the top players in the class. Here are the top 10 players on our draft board:

Charlie Condon, OF, Georgia (BA’s College Player of the Year)
Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Konnor Griffin, OF/SS, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss. (BA’s High School Player of the Year)
Bryce Rainer, SS/RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.

Potential Jays Picks:

20. Toronto Blue Jays: OF Ryan Waldschmidt, Kentucky

Loud exit velocity numbers and a high contact rate have helped Waldschmidt make a late surge up draft boards as evaluators have started to dig further into batted-ball data and other metrics.

The consensus seems to be that the Blue Jays prefer a college hitter in this spot, and while he doesn't have the same track record of production as someone like LSU slugger Tommy White, Waldschmidt has a more well-rounded skill set.

He hit .333/.469/.610 with 17 doubles, 14 home runs, 46 RBI and 25 steals in 32 attempts this spring while working his way back from offseason ACL surgery.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10127256-2024-mlb-mock-draft-50-full-1st-round-picks-including-condon-bazzana-caglianone

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-july-4

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40520082/2024-mlb-draft-rankings-30-top-250-prospects-final-condon-bazzana-caglianone

[JTT]

Thanks for this, Cyrus. Always an interesting if not immediately rewarding time of year. Here’s hoping we don’t draft another high contact but maybe power will play up kid (Martin, Groshans). In fact here’s hoping we get any kind of impact from the first round. Marcus Stroman and Manoah are the only impactful players we’ve drafted in the first since 2010. You can go all the way back to 2000 and add Aaron Sanchez, Thor and James Paxton, two of which didn’t play for us. When Aaron Hill, Ricky Romero and Nate Pearson are the next “big names”, that’s 25 years of awfulness right there.

[Cyrus]

Our drafting with our early picks have been terrible, the only thing that have generally been decent about is recognizing when their high picks aren't working out and moving them in deals.

[dagger]

Our drafting with our early picks have been terrible, the only thing that have generally been decent about is recognizing when their high picks aren't working out and moving them in deals.

that is the irony, and doubly so since AA couldn't even sign some of his first rounders. The development record would be even worse if very late round picks like Pillar and Horwitz hadn't forced their way up the ladder.

[Cyrus]

Our drafting with our early picks have been terrible, the only thing that have generally been decent about is recognizing when their high picks aren't working out and moving them in deals.

that is the irony, and doubly so since AA couldn't even sign some of his first rounders. The development record would be even worse if very late round picks like Pillar and Horwitz hadn't forced their way up the ladder.

Yeah I don't know whats better, that now we are much better at signing our picks, but they end up not being much. OR AA picked guys who he didn't really have a shot signing, and end up wasting the pick per say (Ya i know you get it back next year, but it's essentially a wasted development year).

[Harry Palmer]

Is there anything we do well? For a while I’d have said we had a knack for cobbling together starting pitching staffs, and I guess that’s still our strongest suit, but man do we check a lot of ‘fail’ boxes.

[Cyrus]

This basically goes over how bad we've been, basically Bo Bichette is keeping the Atkins/Shapiro era from being a total diaster:

They started well — exceptionally well, in fact — and thanks in large part to one great pick, they rank eighth in MLB with 37.8 in total WAR drafted since 2016. But over the last seven years, the results place the Blue Jays among the bottom third of teams, and there’s a direct connection between those shortcomings and the current struggles of the big-league team.

Their list of first-round picks since 2016 includes more misses than hits: T.J. Zeuch, Nate Pearson, Logan Warmoth, Groshans, Alek Manoah, Martin, Hoglund, Barriera and Nimmala. While every team whiffs in the draft, the Blue Jays have missed more than most lately.

The lack of impact from the draft is especially apparent when it comes to pitching. Since 2016, the Blue Jays have drafted only two pitchers who have generated at least 2.0 career WAR: Manoah, who was a 2022 Cy Young finalist before struggling in 2023 and undergoing season-ending elbow surgery this summer, and Josh Winckowski, a 2016 15th-round pick who was traded to the Mets in the Steven Matz deal before finding some success with the Red Sox.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/putting-blue-jays-spotty-draft-record-under-the-microscope/

[JTT]

Is there anything we do well? For a while I’d have said we had a knack for cobbling together starting pitching staffs, and I guess that’s still our strongest suit, but man do we check a lot of ‘fail’ boxes.

If you don't squint too hard, they've been pretty good with free agency and prospect trades...

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

[SharoneWright]

20
team logo
Blue Jays
Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina: Yesavage had an eventful stretch this year, returning from a collapsed lung to duel Chase Burns and the Demon Deacons in a regionals elimination game. Yesavage is a physical right-hander who pitches off a high front side and achieves a steep release point. Predictably, his arsenal is all about verticality. His low-to-mid-90s fastball features a lot of rise, and he complements it with a series of secondary pitches, including a hammer curve and a bat-missing split-change.

[SharoneWright]

Apparently no one’s watching… Met?

[Randle McMurphy]

Apparently no one’s watching… Met?

I'm always watching. It's an elite pick.

[spykelee]

I'm watching the avail with Shane Farrell but i mean, idk, don't have much to add. That collapsed lung is scary but seems like he returned strong and outdueled the number 2 pick in the draft so that's good. Gotta like how he's apparently one of the closest to being major league ready. Lord knows our pitching depth is non existent.

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

Keep Atkins?

[-MetA4-]

Apparently no one’s watching… Met?

Its a strong pick at #20 in what is supposed to be a weak draft. His whiff metrics are absolutely elite. Apparently some teams tanked him due to the high release point, so that could be why he lasted to #20.

The pick is on-brand to recent years where they have gone for BPA droppers in the first. On paper their picks generally make sense, but they really need to figure out player development (which seems to be where things aren't working).

[-MetA4-]

2nd rounder RHP Khal Stephen looks like more of a reach, but I think this might be an under-slot pick that saves some money for a pick later. Another tall/strong high-pitchability guy with command of multiple pitches.

[Parataxis]

So baseball draft slot nerds...

Yesavage is a university pick, which means he's very unlikely to refuse a deal and just not play right? Does this mean we can underslot bid him and use that money elsewhere, or is he likely to sign for slot (or above?)?

[dagger]

Keith Law's appraisal

20. Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

No. 13 on Law’s big board

Trey Yesavage was rumored to be going as high as No. 8 a few months ago, but ends up with the Jays, who get one of the most major-league ready starting pitchers in the class. Yesavage’s splitter is a wipeout pitch and often shows breaking ball-like movement, while he’s got plenty of fastball and uses those two pitches against each other to work north-south, even getting hitters out multiple times in the same game with that formula.

He has a very short arm action that some teams didn’t love, although he hasn’t had a major arm injury, unlike several other top pitching prospects in this class. He should start next year no lower than Double A or he’ll just carve up A-ball hitters.

Scouting report: Yesavage has a super-short arm action but makes it work, throwing a ton of strikes with his four-seamer and a nasty splitter that has both the typical heavy bottom of that pitch and some run that can make it look like a downward-breaking slider. Whatever you call it, it’s a wipeout pitch for him. He does throw an actual breaking ball but it’s a clear third pitch, with the splitter his go-to weapon for hitters on both sides of the plate.

If you don’t mind or care about the short arm action, the question is whether he can be a successful major-league starter as a fastball/splitter guy. I think he can as long as he holds up. He did miss a couple of starts in late May with a collapsed lung but returned to make one start in the Regional.

[dagger]

From a retool vs rebuild perspective, Yesavage would have an arrival target of 2026 at most with an outside shot at 2025. Aiming for renewed relevance by 2026 might be the right objective, taking in a higher pick in the 2025 draft to add some momentum for the 2026-27 timeframe.

[Cyrus]

So baseball draft slot nerds...

Yesavage is a university pick, which means he's very unlikely to refuse a deal and just not play right? Does this mean we can underslot bid him and use that money elsewhere, or is he likely to sign for slot (or above?)?

Doubt it, with NIL money in the College, if we give underslot offer, he'll just go back and take the NCAA money for the next or two. I think your going to see a change, where if the MLB draft money isn't higher than what a top high school or current university is going to get, they'll just stay.