RealGM

20. Toronto Blue Jays: OF Ryan Waldschmidt, Kentucky

Loud exit velocity numbers and a high contact rate have helped Waldschmidt make a late surge up draft boards as evaluators have started to dig further into batted-ball data and other metrics.

The consensus seems to be that the Blue Jays prefer a college hitter in this spot, and while he doesn't have the same track record of production as someone like LSU slugger Tommy White, Waldschmidt has a more well-rounded skill set.

He hit .333/.469/.610 with 17 doubles, 14 home runs, 46 RBI and 25 steals in 32 attempts this spring while working his way back from offseason ACL surgery.

Cyrus wrote:Our drafting with our early picks have been terrible, the only thing that have generally been decent about is recognizing when their high picks aren't working out and moving them in deals.

dagger wrote:

Cyrus wrote:Our drafting with our early picks have been terrible, the only thing that have generally been decent about is recognizing when their high picks aren't working out and moving them in deals.

that is the irony, and doubly so since AA couldn't even sign some of his first rounders. The development record would be even worse if very late round picks like Pillar and Horwitz hadn't forced their way up the ladder.

They started well — exceptionally well, in fact — and thanks in large part to one great pick, they rank eighth in MLB with 37.8 in total WAR drafted since 2016. But over the last seven years, the results place the Blue Jays among the bottom third of teams, and there’s a direct connection between those shortcomings and the current struggles of the big-league team.

Their list of first-round picks since 2016 includes more misses than hits: T.J. Zeuch, Nate Pearson, Logan Warmoth, Groshans, Alek Manoah, Martin, Hoglund, Barriera and Nimmala. While every team whiffs in the draft, the Blue Jays have missed more than most lately.

The lack of impact from the draft is especially apparent when it comes to pitching. Since 2016, the Blue Jays have drafted only two pitchers who have generated at least 2.0 career WAR: Manoah, who was a 2022 Cy Young finalist before struggling in 2023 and undergoing season-ending elbow surgery this summer, and Josh Winckowski, a 2016 15th-round pick who was traded to the Mets in the Steven Matz deal before finding some success with the Red Sox.

Harry Palmer wrote:Is there anything we do well? For a while I’d have said we had a knack for cobbling together starting pitching staffs, and I guess that’s still our strongest suit, but man do we check a lot of ‘fail’ boxes.

SharoneWright wrote:Apparently no one’s watching… Met?

SharoneWright wrote:Apparently no one’s watching… Met?

20. Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina

No. 13 on Law’s big board

Trey Yesavage was rumored to be going as high as No. 8 a few months ago, but ends up with the Jays, who get one of the most major-league ready starting pitchers in the class. Yesavage’s splitter is a wipeout pitch and often shows breaking ball-like movement, while he’s got plenty of fastball and uses those two pitches against each other to work north-south, even getting hitters out multiple times in the same game with that formula.

He has a very short arm action that some teams didn’t love, although he hasn’t had a major arm injury, unlike several other top pitching prospects in this class. He should start next year no lower than Double A or he’ll just carve up A-ball hitters.

Scouting report: Yesavage has a super-short arm action but makes it work, throwing a ton of strikes with his four-seamer and a nasty splitter that has both the typical heavy bottom of that pitch and some run that can make it look like a downward-breaking slider. Whatever you call it, it’s a wipeout pitch for him. He does throw an actual breaking ball but it’s a clear third pitch, with the splitter his go-to weapon for hitters on both sides of the plate.

If you don’t mind or care about the short arm action, the question is whether he can be a successful major-league starter as a fastball/splitter guy. I think he can as long as he holds up. He did miss a couple of starts in late May with a collapsed lung but returned to make one start in the Regional.

Parataxis wrote:So baseball draft slot nerds...

Yesavage is a university pick, which means he's very unlikely to refuse a deal and just not play right? Does this mean we can underslot bid him and use that money elsewhere, or is he likely to sign for slot (or above?)?