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Can't help but feel this is a little flukey. The rotation is thin, the bullpen hasn't been great, the injuries are piling up and the bottom of the order is still pretty weak.

On the positive - Springer, Barger, Kirk have all been great.

The run differential suggests they don't belong with the other teams at the top. Before yesterday they were a negative. Yet, somehow they keep winning. How are they doing it?

bluerap23 wrote:Can't help but feel this is a little flukey. The rotation is thin, the bullpen hasn't been great, the injuries are piling up and the bottom of the order is still pretty weak.

On the positive - Springer, Barger, Kirk have all been great.

The run differential suggests they don't belong with the other teams at the top. Before yesterday they were a negative. Yet, somehow they keep winning. How are they doing it?

The bottom of the order has been a big reason they’ve been winning games. Yes some luck and flakiness involved.

It might seem a teeny bit flukey because of some nice wins despite the injuries (Varsho, Santander, Garcia, Gimenez), but some timely hitting by Springer, Kirk, Barger and Clements in particular has made a big difference. Bo and Vlad have been steady at a high level. That said, their next three series after NYY leading into the all-star break are LAA, CWS and Athletics, and while no team should be taken for granted, the Jays have a good chance of heading into the break at 10+ games over .500.

Not really, no. But they've also been missing probably their 1st or 2nd most valuable player for almost all of the season (Varsho), a guy who is a good starter when healthy (Scherzer) and a guy who in theory should be a good contributor with the bat (Santander).

At full health, they are better than the underlying numbers suggest. They still badly need another good SP to take them seriously as a contender though.

Randle McMurphy wrote:Not really, no. But they've also been missing probably their 1st or 2nd most valuable player for almost all of the season (Varsho), a guy who is a good starter when healthy (Scherzer) and a guy who in theory should be a good contributor with the bat (Santander).

At full health, they are better than the underlying numbers suggest. They still badly need another good SP to take them seriously as a contender though.

Not feeling overly confident in Scherzer. He was always a gamble, and we are seeing that gamble not working out yet. Maybe Manoah makes it back and turn the career around in August?

bluerap23 wrote:

Randle McMurphy wrote:Not really, no. But they've also been missing probably their 1st or 2nd most valuable player for almost all of the season (Varsho), a guy who is a good starter when healthy (Scherzer) and a guy who in theory should be a good contributor with the bat (Santander).

At full health, they are better than the underlying numbers suggest. They still badly need another good SP to take them seriously as a contender though.

Not feeling overly confident in Scherzer. He was always a gamble, and we are seeing that gamble not working out yet. Maybe Manoah makes it back and turn the career around in August?

Scherzer is clearly major league caliber when he's actually pitching but he's literally going to start to start as to whether he can even pitch. He can't be relied upon whatsoever.

Manoah could have a Ryu-like return in September or something, but that can't be expected.

Berrios is solid and Gausman and Bassitt can probably be expected to give league average production for the rest of the season (provided they stay healthy), but the rotation is a pretty huge weakness on the team and the offense isn't good enough to make up for that. It needs to be rectified or NYY/TB will inevitably pass us.

bluerap23 wrote:
The run differential suggests they don't belong with the other teams at the top. Before yesterday they were a negative. Yet, somehow they keep winning. How are they doing it?

AL East run differential since May 28th:

Rays +49
Blue Jays +32
Orioles +10
Red Sox +3
Yankees -10

-MetA4- wrote:

bluerap23 wrote:
The run differential suggests they don't belong with the other teams at the top. Before yesterday they were a negative. Yet, somehow they keep winning. How are they doing it?

AL East run differential since May 28th:

Rays +49
Blue Jays +32
Orioles +10
Red Sox +3
Yankees -10

That's a pretty small sample. Just means we've been hot and yankees have been cold. Hope I'm wrong

bluerap23 wrote:That's a pretty small sample. Just means we've been hot and yankees have been cold. Hope I'm wrong

The entire point is that this team is clearly completely different now than what it was in April, when their run differential was at something like -49 at the end of the month. Was that also a small sample for you, or was that their actual true ability, and now they are just "hot"?

They are "only" at +6 on the season because they started the season poorly, and their record reflected that. Since then the run differential has flipped, and their record also reflects that...hence why they are now in 1st place.

-MetA4- wrote:

bluerap23 wrote:That's a pretty small sample. Just means we've been hot and yankees have been cold. Hope I'm wrong

The entire point is that this team is clearly completely different now than what it was in April, when their run differential was at something like -49 at the end of the month. Was that also a small sample for you, or was that their actual true ability, and now they are just "hot"?

They are "only" at +6 on the season because they started the season poorly, and their record reflected that. Since then the run differential has flipped, and their record also reflects that...hence why they are now in 1st place.

No I consider the entire season a more accurate reflection of where they are at. Do you really think the Yankees are this bad?

I will say there's some truth to the idea that this team isn't what it was in the first two months when they were literally conceding games by throwing out Bowden Francis multiple times a week to lose in blowouts. They went 4-10 alone in the games he appeared in. He was almost singlehandedly keeping them from going on any kind of run.

The 1987 Twins had a -20 run differential, and won the world series.

Run differential doesn't tell the full story with this team mainly because the bottom two spots in our rotation were in flux for most of the season. We would have series where we would win two outta three, but that one L would be by like 5+ runs because our starter or depth reliever got hit hard.

They have probably been a bit lucky as based on the run differential.

That being said there is probably net upside rest of the way from the guys they acquired in the offseason compared to what they have done - Gimenez, Santander, Hoffman, Garcia, Sandlin, Scherzer due to production or injury.

Some potential upside in Vlad and perhaps even the big 3 starters overall.

Certainly a few guys playing above their likely 2nd half production (Kirk, Springer, Barger, Lukes), but net net I think there can be more upside than downside.

I think Springer has more in him. Homerun per at bat.

JaysRule15 wrote:Run differential doesn't tell the full story with this team mainly because the bottom two spots in our rotation were in flux for most of the season. We would have series where we would win two outta three, but that one L would be by like 5+ runs because our starter or depth reliever got hit hard.

Bowden Francis lmao

Still impressive to be first over the Yankees who have +99 run differential
And over Rays +68
Reds +24

Blue Jays are currently +9

Record would probably be even higher if not for Schneider.

Just looking at the playoff picture. With Detroit and Houston playing over .600 ball, the East division winner is probably going to be playing in the wild card series regardless. So it really doesn't matter if Jays win the East. All we have to do to basically guarantee a wild card spot is play .500 ball the rest of the way, taking us to 88-89 wins. With pitcher pick ups at the deadline and returns from the IR, that seems doable.