Baseball Prospectus top 100 2008

[Raptorsrock]

The Jays have 1, YES ONLY 1, guy in the top 100.

Oh J.P., you keep setting the bar higher and higher

1. Jay Bruce, of, Reds
2. Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
3. Evan Longoria, 3b, Rays
4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
5. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
6. David Price, lhp, Rays
7. Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays
8. Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
9. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
10. Cameron Maybin, of, Marlins
11. Rick Porcello, rhp, Tigers
12. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles
13. Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies
14. Andy LaRoche, 3b, Dodgers
15. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays
16. Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Red Sox
17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves
18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays
19. Mike Moustakas, ss, Royals
20. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks
21. Joey Votto, 1b, Reds
22. Daric Barton, 1b, Athletics
23. Chase Headley, 3b, Padres
24. Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates
25. Reid Brignac, ss, Rays
26. Carlos Gonzalez, of, Athletics
27. Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels
28. Chris Marrero, of/1b, Nationals
29. Angel Villalona, 3b, Giants
30. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers
31. Matt LaPorta, of, Brewers
32. Chin-Lung Hu, ss, Dodgers
33. Jeff Clement, c, Mariners
34. Ian Kennedy, rhp, Yankees
35. Ross Detwiler, lhp, Nationals
36. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
37. Geovany Soto, c, Cubs
38. Brandon Wood, 3b/ss, Angels
39. Matt Antonelli, 2b, Padres
40. Jacob McGee, lhp, Rays
41. Johnny Cueto, rhp, Reds
42. Manny Parra, lhp, Brewers
43. Steven Pearce, 1b, Pirates
44. Chris Tillman, rhp, Mariners
45. Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs
46. Fautino de los Santos, rhp, Athletics
47. Austin Jackson, of, Yankees
48. Jose Tabata, of, Yankees
49. Eric Hurley, rhp, Rangers
50. Brett Anderson, lhp, Athletics
51. Fernando Martinez, of, Mets
52. Adam Miller, rhp, Indians
53. Justin Masterson, rhp, Red Sox
54. J.R. Towles, c, Astros
55. Carlos Triunfel, ss, Mariners
56. Gio Gonzalez, lhp, Athletics
57. Jed Lowrie, ss, Red Sox
58. Elvis Andrus, ss, Rangers
59. Jordan Walden, rhp, Angels
60. Ryan Kalish, of, Red Sox
61. Matt Latos, rhp, Padres
62. Engel Beltre, of, Rangers
63. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Braves
64. Gerardo Parra, of, Diamondbacks
65. Carlos Gomez, of, Twins
66. Scott Elbert, lhp, Dodgers
67. Alan Horne, rhp, Yankees
68. Carlos Carrasco, rhp, Phillies
69. Chris Perez, rhp, Cardinals
70. Brandon Jones, of, Braves
71. Bryan Anderson, c, Cardinals
72. Luke Hochevar, rhp, Royals
73. Michael Main, rhp, Rangers
74. Chris Davis, 3b, Rangers
75. Chorye Spoone, rhp, Orioles
76. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brewers
77. Taylor Teagarden, c, Rangers
78. Wes Hodges, 3b, Indians
79. Deolis Guerra, rhp, Twins
80. Chris Nelson, ss, Rockies
81. Michael Burgess, of, Nationals
82. Greg Reynolds, rhp, Rockies
83. Gorkys Hernandez, of, Braves
84. Henry Sosa, rhp, Giants
85. Radhames Liz, rhp, Orioles
86. Jair Jurrjens, rhp, Braves
87. Aaron Poreda, lhp, White Sox
88. Chris Volstad, rhp, Marlins
89. Hank Conger, c, Angels
90. Max Scherzer, rhp, Diamondbacks
91. Casey Weathers, rhp, Rockies
92. Dexter Fowler, of, Rockies
93. Wladimir Balentien, of, Mariners
94. Neil Walker, 3b, Pirates
95. Michael Bowden, rhp, Red Sox
96. Joe Savery, lhp, Phillies
97. Ben Revere, of, Twins
98. Trevor Cahill, rhp, Athletics
99. Chris Carter, 1b, Athletics
100. Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox

[risktaker91]

This was already posted...

[SmallTownJournalist303]

No it wasn't. The other prospect list is Keith Law's not BP's.
While it sucks only having one player on there, seeing Snider at #7 is pretty fantastic. But we seriously need some semblance of a farm system, because it's getting ridiculous how poor it is.

[xAIRNESSx]

It's sad that the only good prospect we have was a can't miss draft pick.

[Holmes]

Hochevar at 72
Reynolds at 82
Scherzer at 90
Lincoln unranked
Stubbs unranked

OUCH.

[risktaker91]

No it wasn't. The other prospect list is Keith Law's not BP's.
While it sucks only having one player on there, seeing Snider at #7 is pretty fantastic. But we seriously need some semblance of a farm system, because it's getting ridiculous how poor it is.

Oh my bad. No wonder, I remembered Cecil at around 66 in the other one.

[The_Hater]

The Jays have 1, YES ONLY 1, guy in the top 100.

To make it worse, I counted 21 from the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles and Rays.

[Lanny-Barbie]

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To make it worse, I counted 21 from the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles and Rays.

Maybe 5 of those 21 will have major impact.

[NeverGoingToWin]

2. Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
3. Evan Longoria, 3b, Rays
4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
6. David Price, lhp, Rays
7. Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays
12. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles
15. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays
16. Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Red Sox
18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays
25. Reid Brignac, ss, Rays
34. Ian Kennedy, rhp, Yankees
40. Jacob McGee, lhp, Rays
44. Chris Tillman, rhp, Orioles
47. Austin Jackson, of, Yankees
48. Jose Tabata, of, Yankees
53. Justin Masterson, rhp, Red Sox
57. Jed Lowrie, ss, Red Sox
60. Ryan Kalish, of, Red Sox
67. Alan Horne, rhp, Yankees
75. Chorye Spoone, rhp, Orioles
85. Radhames Liz, rhp, Orioles
95. Michael Bowden, rhp, Red Sox
100. Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox.

[jalenrose#5]

The first five look to be the stud's of the AL east...the Rays had better start improving too. They'll have the likes of Upton, Pena, Kazmir, Shields, Price, Crawford, Baldelli and Longoria all probably in the fold in the coming years....this team has amazing young talent.

[The_Hater]

Maybe 5 of those 21 will have major impact.

Even if you're ultimately right, what's your point? A superior farm system gives teams both better assets for the future and better trade chips if you want to make deals. Guys like Santana and Haren were being dealt this summer and we couldn't even get involved in the talks.

[Michael Bradley]

The problem with Ricciardi's drafts (especially from 2002-05) is that the players he's drafted generally have more value to Toronto than they do to anyone else (likely due to lack of perceived upside). That makes it unlikely to see many Jays prospects on these types of lists. That doesn't mean Ricciardi is incapable of drafting good players, but they are not going to be high upside Alex Rios/Dustin McGowan types.

Ultimately, you have to take these kinds of lists for what they are: subjective analysis. It's entirely possible that Shaun Marcum ends up having a better career than Phil Hughes (for example), but when both are prospects, the guy with the highest ceiling (which is Hughes by a landslide) is going to be viewed more highly, and justifiably so. That illustrates the main function of these lists, as Hater pointed out, which is a team's ability to accumulate assets. The Yankees could trade Phil Hughes straight up for almost anyone they wanted to right now. The Red Sox have a plethora of players they can move as well. The Jays don't have that luxury, as they don't have many players with that type of youth/upside combination (other than Snider). That's why it's discouraging to see so many of Toronto's competition having a lot more assets. It doesn't mean everyone will develop as expected, but if there is an Erik Bedard or Dan Haren type player available, who is more likely to have an enticing package to offer? It certainly won't be Toronto.

I think the prospects lists might be more kind to Ricciardi's drafts from 2006-07 in the coming years, but certainly not to 2002-05.

[risktaker91]

How long do you think it'll take Snider to reach the majors.

[The_Hater]

How long do you think it'll take Snider to reach the majors.

Maybe he gets a September call-up but I read that he's at least 2 more seasons away from making an sort of impact.

[NeverGoingToWin]

More Good News - Baseball Prospectus Organizational Rankings

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=7204

#1 Tampa Bay
#4 Boston
#6 New York
#10 Baltimore

[whysoserious]

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To make it worse, I counted 21 from the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles and Rays.

It's funny that I posted this in the other thread but it's funny how team's that finished with better records than the Jays have more prospects on that list....How does that work?

If they don't win the division this year or make the playoffs, Ricciardi needs to go. He's been here for seven years and every year there is some excuse for why the team didn't win. Some are valid reasons but still.

[Schad]

-= original quote snipped =-



It's funny that I posted this in the other thread but it's funny how team's that finished with better records than the Jays have more prospects on that list....How does that work?

Because the lack of a set bonus structure for drafted players guarantees that top talent represented by agents like Boras will fall to teams willing to pay their exorbitant asking price; Detroit built an incredible farm system in a few years because they were willing to pay for top talent. Also, wealthy teams are able to devote more resources to scouting Latin America, which allows them to add a significant number of non-drafted talent to their farm systems...the Yankees have been particularly good at that over the years.

This is where JP has failed, IMO; when Rogers upped the budget, JP targeted older, expensive players, while continuing to look for bargains (typically college players) in the draft. Now, this could be in part because Rogers wanted an immediate return on investment in terms of on-field product, but it would have been a vastly superior long-term strategy to invest some of that budget into targeting the best available amateurs, regardless of price.


Edit: as an example of the skewed system that exists because players can choose not to sign, take Dellin Betances. He's a 6'7" lefty straight out of high school that throws up to 97 MPH. The Yankees got him in the 8th round because he stated that he would only sign if drafted by New York.

[NeverGoingToWin]

Rich Porcello is a good example too. The only reason why he fell to the Tigers was because he is represented by Boras.

[OldNo7]

Boras should be banned

[Test of Wills]

I hate Scott Boras. But the man sure knows how to do his job.