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2002 MLB Draft

#14 Russ Adams
#15 Scott Kazmir
#16 Nick Swisher
#17 Cole Hamels

Griff83 wrote:2002 MLB Draft

#14 Russ Adams
#15 Scott Kazmir
#16 Nick Swisher
#17 Cole Hamels

6 P Ricardo Rimero
7 SS Troy Tulowitski
10 OF Cameron Maybin
12 OF Jay Bruce
23 OF Jacoby Ellsbury

The list could go on

I think JP once said something like how he would draft for position rather than get the best guy available. That worked out well.

oh...just to add to that draft 2002...

19 James Loney
22 Jeremy Guthrie
23 Jeff Francoeur
24 Joe Blanton
25 Matt Cain


yikes...!!

Heh, yep. The day I was playing around with b-ref and noticed the players drafted after Adams was the day my soul died.

To twist the knife further, James Loney went two spots after Hamels, with Jeff Francoeur, Joe Blanton and Matt Cain also taken in the eleven picks after Russ...that makes seven above-average major league players immediately following E-4 Adams, with Jeremy Guthrie possibly making it eight.

Granted, Blanton Guthrie and Francoeur aren't Kazmir/Swisher/Hamels, but they sure as heck aren't Russ Adams, either.

Edit: while I was typing, jalenrose beat me to it.

Schadenfreude wrote:Heh, yep. The day I was playing around with b-ref and noticed the players drafted after Adams was the day my soul died.

To twist the knife further, James Loney went two spots after Hamels, with Jeff Francoeur, Joe Blanton and Matt Cain also taken in the eleven picks after Russ...that makes seven above-average major league players immediately following E-4 Adams, with Jeremy Guthrie possibly making it eight.

Granted, Blanton Guthrie and Francoeur aren't Kazmir/Swisher/Hamels, but they sure as heck aren't Russ Adams, either.

Edit: while I was typing, jalenrose beat me to it.

Id argue that Francouer is better then Swisher.

rkid wrote:I think JP once said something like how he would draft for position rather than get the best guy available. That worked out well.

Wow.... yeah I recall him saying that.... we all know that in the NBA, it's always best to draft by "best player available"... well this rule should be EVEN MORE enforced in baseball because the drafted players don't even see action for at least a couple of seasons! so one need during the season can be completely filled by next season, and so on.... what a dumbass move by JP

Griff83 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Id argue that Francouer is better then Swisher.

The key difference in OBP. Swisher walked 100 times last year, and posted an OBP of .381 against a slugging percentage of .455. Francoeur had a slightly worse slg% (.444), but because he barely walks, his OBP was a pedestrian .338.

At 24, Francoeur might end up being the best player, but I would definitely take Swisher at this juncture.

Imagine a Kazmir in our starting rotation. Lethal.

Good job JP! *claps hands*

What is Adams doing now? Is he still stuck in the minors?

Peteros wrote:Imagine a Kazmir in our starting rotation. Lethal.

Good job JP! *claps hands*

What is Adams doing now? Is he still stuck in the minors?

He's hitting .232 with Syracuse, though his peripherals (walks, power) are good. Owing to his penchant for missing first base by 10 feet with throws, they're using him as an outfielder.

Schadenfreude wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



The key difference in OBP. Swisher walked 100 times last year, and posted an OBP of .381 against a slugging percentage of .455. Francoeur had a slightly worse slg% (.444), but because he barely walks, his OBP was a pedestrian .338.

At 24, Francoeur might end up being the best player, but I would definitely take Swisher at this juncture.

OBP and slugging % dont make a player better then the other neccesarily. If you look at his surface stats (avg, hr, rbi's) id say Francoeur is currently the better player.

current stats-

Francoeur

.267 avg, 3 home runs, 26 rbi's, 22 runs

Swisher

.208 avg, 4 home runs, 10 rbi's, 24 runs


last 2 seasons



Swisher-

.262 avg, 22 home runs, 78 rbi's, 84 runs
.254 avg, 35 home runs, 95 rbi's, 106 runs

Francoeur-

.293 avg, 19 home runs, 105 rbi's, 84 runs
.260 avg, 29 home runs, 103 rbi's, 83 runs

id say that Francoeur had the better season last year, he hit 30 points higher in average then Swisher, and drove in about 25 more rbi's also. This will also be Swishers 4th full season in the league while it will be Francoeurs 3rd. I dont know who the better fielder is but im almost positive Francoeur has the better arm (seeing he has one of the best in the entire league).

Schadenfreude wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



He's hitting .232 with Syracuse, though his peripherals (walks, power) are good. Owing to his penchant for missing first base by 10 feet with throws, they're using him as an outfielder.

Ouch... obsolete? A light-hitting outfielder with no power?

RBIs are a poor indication of personal ability, especially when Francoeur was part of an offense that scored 70 more runs than the one in which Swisher was stuck...doubly impressive given that the Braves play under NL rules. Francoeur was hitting fifth in a lineup behind three very good hitters with extremely high on-base percentages (Kelly Johnson, Edgar Renteria, and Chipper Jones), plus a clean-up guy who was often nice enough to strike out with runners on to give Francoeur a chance to drive them in. Those circumstances and a good contact hitter like Francoeur is necessarily going to lead to great RBI totals...put Swisher in that slot instead of hitting second in the order (bad place to get RBIs) or third behind low OBP guys and I'd guarantee that he gets 100+ RBIs, as well.

And average is equally useless independent from on-base percentage, IMO. Swisher had 69 extra-base hits, 72 singles, and 100 walks last year, and 61 XBHs, 80 singles and 97 walks the year prior. Francoeur posted 59/129/42 and 59/110/23 in those categories...his advantage in batting average is almost entirely derived from hitting more singles, and Swisher's huge advantage in walks basically cancels that out.

No doubt that Francoeur is the better defensive player, though, and there's no doubt that Swisher has had a rough start to his season. However, this season is an even greater indication of the contrast in circumstances; Swisher has 4 HRs but only 10 RBIs because he is leading off, while Francoeur has one fewer HR and 17 more RBIs because he is getting opportunity after opportunity with the Braves 3rd in the NL in OBP.

Schadenfreude wrote:RBIs are a poor indication of personal ability, especially when Francoeur was part of an offense that scored 70 more runs than the one in which Swisher was stuck...doubly impressive given that the Braves play under NL rules. Francoeur was hitting fifth in a lineup behind three very good hitters with extremely high on-base percentages (Kelly Johnson, Edgar Renteria, and Chipper Jones), plus a clean-up guy who was often nice enough to strike out with runners on to give Francoeur a chance to drive them in. Those circumstances and a good contact hitter like Francoeur is necessarily going to lead to great RBI totals...put Swisher in that slot instead of hitting second in the order (bad place to get RBIs) or third behind low OBP guys and I'd guarantee that he gets 100+ RBIs, as well.

And average is equally useless independent from on-base percentage, IMO. Swisher had 69 extra-base hits, 72 singles, and 100 walks last year, and 61 XBHs, 80 singles and 97 walks the year prior. Francoeur posted 59/129/42 and 59/110/23 in those categories...his advantage in batting average is almost entirely derived from hitting more singles, and Swisher's huge advantage in walks basically cancels that out.

No doubt that Francoeur is the better defensive player, though, and there's no doubt that Swisher has had a rough start to his season. However, this season is an even greater indication of the contrast in circumstances; Swisher has 4 HRs but only 10 RBIs because he is leading off, while Francoeur has one fewer HR and 17 more RBIs because he is getting opportunity after opportunity with the Braves 3rd in the NL in OBP.

great post but id like to ask you this-

who in your opinion had the better season last year?
who in your opinion is currently having the better season?

Griff83 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



great post but id like to ask you this-

who in your opinion had the better season last year?

Swisher. He had more extra-base hits despite having fewer ABs owing to the number of walks he takes, and in fewer PAs, as well. The .031 difference in batting average is overstated, as that represents 16 hits over the course of his year, while he walked 58 times more than Francoeur. That more than makes up the gap.

who in your opinion is currently having the better season?

Francoeur, though neither has been fast out of the gate. Francoeur's on-base percentage is bad and his slugging poor, while Swisher is struggling in all facets right now...in his career 43% of his hits have been for extra bases, and he's sitting at 29%. The first two months of the season have traditionally been kind to him, so I'm not sure whether batting leadoff (something he didn't do before this year) has screwed with his approach, or it's simply an extended slump.

Either way, though, I don't like to lend too much weight to numbers from much less than a half season of play, unless a) I'm watching them every day and there's clearly something wrong, or b) they are really, really old. As it stands, I'd still go with Swisher due to his better track record, though Francoeur may well pass him this year or next.

Schadenfreude question.

Do you think Adams will ever develop into a decent player?

Why is he still in the organization? Why don't the Jays release him, and let someone else come up and play at Syracuse and develop them instead?

Peteros wrote:Schadenfreude question.

Do you think Adams will ever develop into a decent player?

Why is he still in the organization? Why don't the Jays release him, and let someone else come up and play at Syracuse and develop them instead?

I think Adams' chance to become a decent ML player has probably passed him by...if he can't play in the infield, his bat is a bit of a liability, and I struggle to identify one major-league calibre aspect of his game.

The reason he's still in the organization are twofold: one, he's a 27 year old former first round pick, so the organization is probably holding out hope that he turns it around. Two, we really don't have anyone else worthy of that spot in Syracuse. The AA team is pretty thin in talent...Scott Campbell (2B from New Zealand) has looked good judging by the numbers and what I've read, but he needs more time before jumping to AAA, and even if he was to earn a promotion at some point, Adams wouldn't be the logical guy to dump at this stage.

Chances are that Russ will have this season and next to try and salvage things (he is showing decent power), with a likely call-up when the rosters expand. After that, no clue...he might be a throw-in in a trade, or spend another year or two in the minors.

IMO I think Russ can develop into a decent player. He is not an outfielder though, I think he's a 2B and with the Jays having Aaron Hill at 2B and Scott Campbell at AA waiting in the wings, I don't see him taking their spots.

Russ leads the Chiefs in HR's and RBI's, second in TB and walks and he gets on base pretty well. He doesn't hit for average but he is almost hitting over .300 (.294) with RISP, which can be said for something because the Jays as a team hit under .250 with RISP.

He can be a good player...he's just not on the right team.