RealGM

There's a little over two weeks to go before the entry draft, so I thought I'd do a little write-up on this year's options in the first round, with much of the info courtesy of battersbox.ca and the scouting reports on milb.com. Mostly because it prevents me from having flashbacks of double play choppers and bases-loaded strikeouts. Like the Raptors, the Jays will pick at #17.

Needs: power at the corners, power-armed starters. The first is obvious for anyone who has watched the Jays over the past forty games, the latter because you really can't go wrong with pitching depth.

Uh, you better be sure they are BPA: middle infielders. Not necessarily a dig at Russ Adams et al, but 2B/SS is practically the only place where the organization has something approaching depth, and this is not a good year for middle infielders.

This draft looks to be loaded with good college power hitters, especially first basemen...right up our alley.

A few players that might be around at #17:

Brett Wallace (6'1", 245 lb. 3B/1B, Arizona State, 21 years old)

2008 line: .414/.538/1.285 (metal bats, of course)

Wallace is a big (possibly too big, width-wise) left-handed hitter with three great years in college behind him. Good power to all fields, though more 25-30 HR/year projected than a Ryan Howard masher. His calling card, however, is his patience and intelligence at the plate: he has a solid BB/K ratio and hits the ball hard to all fields. Possibly the best hitter in college this year.

Why he might be available: Perceived lack of upside, and justified doubts about whether he can play 3B in the pros. Because he's a big body, some believe that he has no room to grow. Also, I've read some things stating that teams are concerned that he's more of a line-drive, Overbay kinda guy than a guy with enough power to bat in the middle of the order, and teams want more power from their first baseman.

Why the Jays might take him: Well, the scouts might be wrong, and even if they aren't, a polished gap-to-gap youngster with .300/.400/.850 potential isn't a bad consolation prize. Keith Law loves him, and believes that a bit of work will turn those doubles into homers without damaging his game. Also, the Jays took him as a late-round draft-and-follow three years ago and liked him (in an interview, he mentioned that he considered it a major confidence boost to be drafted out of HS).

Wallace seems to be one of the bigger what-ifs in the draft; he's rated anywhere between the top-10 and the compensatory round, depending on the site. Speculation seems to be that he is very high on the Jays' board, so he wouldn't be a surprise.


Yonder Alonso (6'2", 215 lb. 1B, Miami University, 21 years old

2008 line: .373/.537/1.290

Alonso is another big lefty with power to all fields. Another guy with ridiculous plate discipline and a stunning BB/K ratio, he's also considered to have a better shot at having plus-pull-power with a wood bat, after doing well in the wood-only Cape Cod League. Again, though, there's talk that 25-30 HRs is probably his target range, with much more being a bonus. A better build than Wallace, strong but with room to improve his body type.

Why he might be available: While it is likely that he goes above the Jays' pick (10-15 range), the MLB draft is an unpredictable thing. If a run on pitching develops, Alonso could slip a few spots.

In addition, many of the same questions surrounding Wallace exist with Alonso. Is his polish indicative of a low ceiling? If teams feel this to be the case, they might gamble on more toolsy players.

Why the Jays might take him: First, because getting him at 17 would be a minor coup. Second, Alonso has the skillset to rocket through the minors and be ready to play 1B on an everyday basis by the time Overbay's contract expires in 2010. After taking a bunch of kids in the last draft, JP might be interested in balancing it out with a ready-made player.


David Cooper (6'1", 210 lb. 1B, California, 21 years old):

Another sweet-swinging lefty first baseman with a good eye, Cooper might have the most raw power of the trio. However, his power is something of a recent development...he was a light hitter as a freshman before making great leaps over the past two years. Defensively, he's not particularly good, but if he hits that's not much of a problem.

Why he might be available: Well, because he's a borderline first rounder, though no one would be surprised to see him jump up on draft day. It's unlikely that he would be taken over Alonso and Wallace, but could be the Jays' choice is those two are taken.

Why the Jays might take him: Lefty, power, patience.


Conor Gillaspie (6'1", 200 lb. 3B, Wichita State, 20 years old):

Not a power guy (nor will be likely be one in the future), Gillaspie is just a pure left-handed hitter that won the MVP of the aforementioned Cap Cod League, indicating that he has a good shot at raking with wooden bats. A mediocre fielder with poor speed, he'd better keep making contact or he will really disappoint.

Why he might be available: Concerns about his lack of power at 3B will cause many teams to look in other directions...if his defense proves inadequate and he needs to move to 1B, his upside is something around a less demented Dmitri Young.

Why the Jays might take him: Pre-2006 JP valued production and predictability, especially from college guys who have excelled with wood bats. He could also come a bit cheaper than the top-flight college guys. Gillaspie fits those molds, so if JP reverts to form, he might be a target.


Reese Havens (6'1", 195 lb. SS, Vanderbilt, 21 years old):

High contact, high IQ lefty that will likely make the transition to 3B due to a lack of range, where his great arm would be a bonus. Average power at best, and feet of lead, but with great bat speed and a good approach.

Why he might be available: Lack of power and lack of speed, and the fact that he was extremely average before this year...could be a fluke.

Why the Jays might take him: God, I hope not, but JP might see him as a versatile prospect who can play either 3B, SS or a corner outfield spot, depending on the development curve of Ahrens, Jackson et al.


Gerrit Cole (6'3", 190 lb. RHSP, high skool, 17 years old)

Throws hard for a guy that can still add to his frame: 92-94, and can add a few MPH when necessary. Also has good control for a young 'un, and decent off-speed stuff that projects to be good/very good.

Why he might be available: Scott Boras, questions about whether his mechanics will cause his elbow to implode.

Why the Jays might take him: During last year's draft, JP showed a ramblin', gamblin' side previously unseen. Cole has tremendous talent, and could be either a starter or reliever depending on the team that takes him. Still, the Jays are more likely to target a bat in the first round, and while JP has reversed course on high school hitters, the same can't be said for pitchers.


Joshua Fields (6'0", 178 lb. RHRP, Georgia, 22 years old)

Top college closer, throws a fastball that might be too straight, and a ridiculous curveball. Like most college closers, his appeal is that he could be in the majors as a set-up guy within 12 months, and a productive part of someone's bullpen.

Why he might be available: Inexplicably, he sucked out loud last year. Also, he's represented by Boras...and the fact that Boras stonewalled the Braves when Fields was taken in the 2nd round after said subpar year will turn some teams off.

Why the Jays might take him: College closers are the surest of sure things, and JP might want a long-term right-handed option in the bullpen, possibly as insurance in case Janssen never returns to form. However, with all the lefty hitters out there, that'd be insane.


Ethan Martin (6'3", 200 lb RHSP/3B, high skool, 19 years old as of the day after the draft)

Could be an ace. Moving fastball in the mid-90s, great curve, a split-finger that could become his calling card.

Why he might be available: He's really something of an unknown. Essentially, all the hype surrounding him came from one excellent start at an invitational tournament, which sent him flying up draft boards. That might scare some teams.

Why the Jays might take him: Highly unlikely, but his upside is such that JP could talk himself into buying practically sight unseen. Also possible: the Earth collides with the moon on June 3rd, making the draft somewhat moot.


Tanner Scheppers (6'4", 200 lb. RHSP, Fresno State, 21 years old)

Great movement (horizontal and vertical) on his 92-94 fastball, and a good looking hard slider. Raw, but has the size and power arm that causes scouts to wake up embarrassed in the middle of the night. A K/9 of 14.0 is silly, and college hitters had little luck with him.

Why he might be available: Originally, he was projected top-10...until he developed a stress fracture in his shoulder. That's an odd injury; the type that might scare teams away, but does not necessarily augur badly for his long-term health. Also, being raw like steak rarebit and a relatively high BB/9 compounds the risk.

Why the Jays might take him: Value. Great arm, plenty of room to fill out his frame, and more talent than all but a handful of players in the draft. Might take longer to develop than some of the other college pitchers, but he has the stuff to be the top college starter in the draft, as well.


Christian Friedrich (6'3", 210 lb. LHSP, Eastern Kentucky, 20 years old)

He'll never be an ace, but Friedrich comes practically ready-made. Meh fastball (88-90 range), throws four pitches decently. Should be good enough to break camp with a major league team within a couple years at the bottom of a team's rotation, and work his way up to being solid as a #3 or #4 guy. For that reason, he's getting talked about in the 10-15 range.

Why he might be available: Lack of upside. Every team could use him, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he is at the top of anyone's list. Command problems need to be addressed before he can make the majors, as well, and there are lingering concerns that he faced less-than-stellar competition.

Why the Jays might take him: JP loves them college lefties. Friedrich, if he falls, is probably the most likely of the pitchers listed to be taken by the Jays.


Edit: whoa, I wrote 1800 words!?

Tanner Scheppers....for his name alone.

Our farm is pretty weak on pitching with a drop after Cecil and then a huge drop after Purcey. But of course it was weak during the years that caused J.P. to draft Romero and Purcey and look at how he screwed up that.

I like Brett Wallace, I think his power would be good for our team, with us struggling to score runs.

Wow awesome analysis Schad.

How big is Wallace exactly? I hope he's able to hold his own defensively, and not be pushed to a DH role by his 30's due to his size and all

Schadenfreude you should be working for the Jays. lol.

Nice analysis and write up.

Always look forward to reading your posts.

evilRyu wrote:Wow awesome analysis Schad.

How big is Wallace exactly? I hope he's able to hold his own defensively, and not be pushed to a DH role by his 30's due to his size and all

He's a big body at 6'1/245, but not fat by any means. Basically, he has a massive lower body that serves him well at the plate in generating power and bat speed, but leaves him with poor footwork and range in the field. It sounds like his hands are good enough to make him a low-average fielder at first, which should be enough to keep him there long-term.

Whoever drafts him will probably put a little bit of work into 'tightening' his body, just to reduce strain on his lower body. Of course, no one would risk his production by asking him to slim much, so it's likely that he'll be at a similar weight (maybe a somewhat lower BF%) by the time he reaches the majors.

Re: Holmes. I agree; if Alonso and Wallace are gone, it's better to target pitching rather than one of the rather mediocre college hitters like Gillaspie and Havens. It's just a matter of who; Friedrich is definitely the 'safe' pick, and with a bevy of decent (but low-ceiling) lefties making their way through our low minors, I'm not sure I'd take him over any of the other starters mentioned. The time for safe pitching picks has probably passed us by...especially after had some of them prove rather less safe than expected.

Jeez Schad, seems like you know everything about prospects.

We've been talking about the draft for a while now on the BJ Scout board (bluejays.scout.com) and on bluejayway.com. You guys should check it out if you want to read up on developments.

As for Schadenfreude's list:

Wallace and Alonso would be best case scenarios, although both very likely wont be available when we pick. If one does drop though they would be a great pick.

Cooper would be a reach IMO although I wouldn't be totally upset with that pick because he does have pop.

I'd be very disappointed if we picked Gillespie. An average fielding 3B with marginal power? No thanks. He's like a nowhere near as good defensive and less athletic version of Aaron Hill. He's not even guaranteed to stay at third.

Reese Havens would be another reach and I'd be disappointed if he ended up being the pick as well.

Gerrit Cole....not going to happen. He's a raw HS pitcher who has some makeup and mechanical concerns, and to top it all off he's a Boras client. It just violates far too many of our "no-no's."

I just dont see any reason for us to take Fields, we dont need relief help, and Janssen isn't going to push us to draft a reliever in the first. I'd be absolutely stunned if this was the pick.

Ethan Martin is one of my favourites. Just to correct you, while he did pop up on the radar as a pitcher after an invitational camp, he's been doing really well on the mound all season long. I think he may be too raw which would turn us off (as mentioned).

Scheppers will fall due to the injury, but the injury is looking pretty serious to the point that he'd be a huge risk. He's a definite Top 10 talent but it appears he may even fall to the end of the first if not out of the first all together.

Friedrich, another guy I want no part of....luckily it appears that he'll be gone by our pick. Friedrich has average velocity and average command of his fastball: essentially an immediate turnoff for me. He has a great curveball but you cant set that pitch up with a marginal fastball. Average velocity, walks too many guys....no thanks, looks like our very own Ricky Romero (I seriously doubt JP would want to repeat that again).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, to add a few more names:

C/IF/OF Brett Lawrie (HS - Canada): The top Canadian in the draft, and he's been rising up boards very rapidly lately, to the point that he's getting some pump as our possible pick if guys like Alonso and Wallace are gone. Lawrie has legit power potential, an advanced approach at the plate, and good plate discipline. The downfall is that he is a big question mark defensively. He currently plays catcher but he is very raw behind the plate , although he does appear to have the athleticism to stick there. Scouts appear to be split as to whether he can stick behind the plate. His bat should be good enough to work as a possible 3B or OF as well.

RHP Jake Odorizzi (HS): There was apparently a guy on the BJ Scout board who a few months ago claimed that Odorizzi was a guy the Jays were actually looking at intensively. Odorizzi has been a big riser this year and should be one of the first HS arms taken. He throws 90-94mph with an easy, effortless delivery. His fastball has natural run and sink. Also flashes solid curveball and slider. He's guy who could have four above average pitches in the future. Probably his biggest plus is his super projectable body, he is around 6'2 170lbs now and many people believe that he will add even more to his fastball once he fills his frame. Very athletic as well. Dominating peformances so far this season. Stuff improving exponentially. If we go with a HS pitcher I think that this is probably the direction we'd go (given that Odorizzi is even available).

OF Zach Collier (HS): One of my favourites in the draft and a kid who has risen dramatically this past season. For a while it looked like we had no chance at him because he was looked at as a supplemental first type guy (would have been a reach with our first and wouldn't be there with our second), but he' risen in the first round now and most recent lists have him in the 20's. Jim Callis' early mock actually has him getting selected before we pick, and as the first HS OF off the board. Collier didn't participate in the summer tournament circuit which is why he was a big unknown, but he's a toolsy OF who has driven his name with his play this season. He's not a polished hitter by any means but he has a quick, compact stroke with noticeable power right now and even more projected power in the future. He has good speed although as he grows he probably wont become a huge SB threat. Strong, projectable body. Can field defensively but he only has an average arm which will limit him to CF or LF.

1B/OF Ike Davis (College): Brett Wallace's teammate. Power potential is probably even better than Wallace's (Wallace is better by a bit as of now, but Davis has hit a ridiculous amount of doubles this year which signals further projection...he's actually posting a higher SLG% than Wallace). Good athleticism allows his to project as either an OF (he has a good arm from RF) or at 1B. Main difference between him and Wallace is that his plate discipline isn't as good, although its good in its pretty good in its own right. Good bloodlines - his dad was an MLB pitcher. He's really turned his tools into outstanding production this past season.

Should also note that Brett Wallace was actually a Blue Jays selection out of HS. We couldn't get him signed (he was a later round pick) and he ended up at Arizona State.

arrpy wrote:Jeez Schad, seems like you know everything about prospects.

I think he knows a little too much. We should keep an eye on him.

Posted by a good guy from the Jays Scout board (me and him talk about the draft quite a bit):

This is the response I got from a post I made on a Cardinals board asking some questions about why he had Martin at #17 to the Jays and what the info was like that he had Odorizzi being looked at by the Jays before.

"My sources are area scouts and for some teams even cross checkers for the first 2 rounds and then a little use of logical judgment to go with the info from the scouts after the 2nd round

I have a little inside info on the Jays from their central US cross checker and they love the video they have on Martin and think he's going to be too good to pass up there"

Dont look now but we may go with a HS pitcher this year....

You know the best thing the Jays could do for the draft.....hire Schad!

-MetA4- wrote:Should also note that Brett Wallace was actually a Blue Jays selection out of HS. We couldn't get him signed (he was a later round pick) and he ended up at Arizona State.

Interesting, thanks for the tidbit....

In a related note, doesn't this give drafted players way too much power? I mean, they can continuously veto any signing until they get drafted to a team they want to play for..

evilRyu wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

In a related note, doesn't this give drafted players way too much power? I mean, they can continuously veto any signing until they get drafted to a team they want to play for..

Not really. If you are drafted out of HS and dont sign and decide to go to college you cant get selected again until your JR year which would be 3 years after rejecting to sign out of HS. As a JR you have some power as you can go back to school for your SR season if you still dont like where you get drafted, but after your SR year you essentially have no power. If you go the JUCO route after HS I believe you can be drafted again after your first year at JUCO which is why you see more kids go the JUCO route instead of going to a D1 school where they'd have to wait 3 years before getting drafted again. Every player with eligibility remaining (HS, JUCO, or College) is researched on their signability, its one of the most important aspects behind the draft. The majority of HS kids who are taken late (like rounds 30-40 for example) are going to go to college because the signing bonus at that stage isn't much and you might as well go to school, improve your draft standing, and get an education.

Scott Boras clients on the other hand can somewhat dictate where they get taken by demanding ridiculous contracts from whoever drafts them. Thats going to scare off most of the crappy, low budget teams (although Kansas City has recently shown that they aren't afraid of taking Boras clients) and will usually allow you to end up with one of the bigger mark teams.

-MetA4- wrote:Posted by a good guy from the Jays Scout board (me and him talk about the draft quite a bit):

This is the response I got from a post I made on a Cardinals board asking some questions about why he had Martin at #17 to the Jays and what the info was like that he had Odorizzi being looked at by the Jays before.

"My sources are area scouts and for some teams even cross checkers for the first 2 rounds and then a little use of logical judgment to go with the info from the scouts after the 2nd round

I have a little inside info on the Jays from their central US cross checker and they love the video they have on Martin and think he's going to be too good to pass up there"

Dont look now but we may go with a HS pitcher this year....

I could definitely live with that...never did I imagine that JP would go for a high-upside, long-development high school pitcher. Heck, in the past he's been criticized for barely scouting them, let alone giving consideration to drafting them. And if his pitching doesn't develop, Martin has the tools to be a damned good hitter as well.

With regards to Lawrie, the talk seems to be that his ridiculous performance of late with Team Canada -- 11 for 20 with 8 HRs (!?) and a 1.500 slg% against low-level pro teams in the Dominican -- has probably elevated him above our slot. If not, I'd be happy to have a guy with that kind of upside.

The Jays might be well-situated; if Oakland goes for an arm instead of one of the slugging college 1Bs, only one of the next four teams (the Brewers, one pick before the Jays) have much of a track record in terms of drafting hitters from major colleges in the first round...the Cards haven't gone that route since JD Drew in 1998, the Twins with Matt LeCroy in 1997, and the Dodgers with Bubba Crosby in 1997. And the Brewers already have more power-hitting first basemen than they know what to do with (not that it should matter in the draft).

That's not to say they won't go that route in they feel a college kid is the BPA, but the possibility still exists that a guy like Wallace could get passed over. I'll definitely be watching the Oakland pick with baited breath, though.

Its only a matter of time before we draft and sign a HS pitcher, and I wouldn't sell JP out so short because we've reached the point where we're starting to draft upside. Two years ago we broke the college streak and took a polished HS bat, last season we took another polished HS bat and followed that up by showing another new element - drafting more tools based HS players (Eiland and Jackson)...I'm not sold that we take a HS pitcher in the first this year but it does appear to be in discussion whereas in the past it was a definite "NO." I wouldn't be surprised if we took a HS pitcher somewhere past the first round (rounds 2-5).

As for Lawrie, I wouldn't say he's played himself out of our pick but he is now most certainly guaranteed to go in the 10-20 range. The big team we have to look out for is the Twins at 14, other then the Jays they have been the other team connected to Lawrie. I think that Lawrie if available could very very likely end up being our pick, he follows the mold of Snider and Ahrens as pure-hitters. Lawrie has recently drawn comparisons to Dan Uggla and Craig Biggio.

There is still a possibility of Wallace being there at #17, but its looking a lot less likely right now than it did a month or so ago when most mocks had him penciled in at our pick. The rumor to watch right now is Wallace to the White Sox at #8. I personally doubt he goes that high but it is something to watch.

We did a 5-round mock draft at minorleagueball.com and heres how our Jays draft ended up:

1) Brett Lawrie

Talk seems to be that the stress fracture diagnosis with Scheppers was wrong...he apparently had it re-evaluated, but I can't find the results. If it's good news, that might put him back in the mix as a first round pick.

Schadenfreude wrote:Talk seems to be that the stress fracture diagnosis with Scheppers was wrong...he apparently had it re-evaluated, but I can't find the results. If it's good news, that might put him back in the mix as a first round pick.

Jim Callis had this to say a few days ago (on the 30th)...not sure if what you are referring to is something new (I doubt it is because it probably would have made its rounds by now):

Q: Mike from Los Angeles, CA asks:
So what is up with Tanner Scheppers? The MRI was clean which has to be great news, right? Where will he go in the draft?

A: Jim Callis:
I wouldn't say "great news." There is something significant wrong with his shoulder, and doctors can't seem to pinpoint it. Until his health is resolved, it's hard to see him going in the first round.
----------------------------------------------------------------

His entire injury appears to be a medical nightmare because no one knows what exactly is wrong with him. Everything I've heard suggests that it is definitely something to be very concerned about.

Yeah, all I knew about it was a throwaway line on BA (from the 30th, I think) referencing his upcoming exam and the original mis-diagnosis, but I couldn't find anything stating the results. A mystery shoulder injury is a pretty scary thing...