Before I start, I want to make clear that I think you're crazy if you think Joe Inglett will hit .300 again next year. I expect pitchers are going to figure him out. But even if you ignore that, here we go.
chocolateSens1 wrote:
Realized. But as far as I'm concerned, we're trying to win as many ball games as we can. How though, can you neglect the fact that Inglett had a better OBP than both Lind and Snider, and had a better avg than Lind and barely less than Snider (Inglett had 4 times as many at bats), and just use age as your primary reasoning? With Hill's return, Inglett most likely will not see as many at-bats or starts at the 2 bag, but his play last year should be taken into account when considering who should be the primary lead-off man. Not to mention he's probably the fastest guy on the team.
The reason I can use age is because it means those two are likely to get better. 21 and 25-year-olds who are as highly touted as them often do. And if the two of them do get better, then even if their OBP doesn't exceed Inglett's, it's going to be better for our offense to have them at LF and DH.
Also, why are you trying to win as many games as you can this season? I mean, I know that's the goal ever year, but the odds are that unless Lind and Snider have break out seasons, as many games as we can win isn't going to be more than two of the Yanks, Sox and Rays. So if that is the case, you might as well gamble on Lind and Snider, and at the very worst have them better prepared for '10.
Why though, does Joe Inglett's OPS have to be equal or higher than Rolen's to warrant leading off? The way I see it, OBP is and has been the most important stat when looking at the production a lead-off hitter. He's supposed to get on base, that's it. If he does that, he's done his job. In addition, last year Rolen's AB/K ratio was 6-1 whereas Inglett's was 8-1.
Joe Inglett's OPS doesn't have to be higher than Rolen's to warrant leading off. It has to be higher to warrant playing 3rd base over him. 3rd base isn't where you put slap hitting 2B. It's where you put guys who can drive in runs.
Fielding % is the only way to gauge a players efficiency on the field. But you agree that Inglett is a better fielder than Rolen anyway, so there's nothing to argue about here.
I'm seeing a problem in our discussion here. Do you also judge pitchers by wins or ERA? I'm figuring you know nothing about non-old-fogey-baseball-writer stats.
I am no expert on fielding stats, but I would suggest you at least take a look at range factor. It's not even really sabermetrics. It's putouts + assits / innings played at a position. Fielding % discounts the defensive value of guys like Johnny Mac, by not giving them credit for getting to more balls. Range factor, on the other hand, allows you to compare (within a position) based on the number of plays a player gets involved in. It's biased by pitching staff and park, of course, but looking at it along with fielding % is better than not. Zone rating is an even better stat, but I don't understand it well enough to really explain it.
Don't you think that part of Cito's success had to do with the decision to plug Inglett in at the lead off spot? Or are you assuming that had Scutaro or Eckstein or Rios led off we would have been just as successful?
I think the vast majority of Cito's success was that everyone started hitting better under him. But yeah, Inglett was among those players.
Look, I want less to do with Scutaro and Eckstein than I do with Inglett. For last years team, he was the best option at 2nd, and, because of that, probably the best option to lead off. But I also think, for reasons people better at stats than I have demonstrated, that it is almost always a bad idea to put a worse hitter into your lineup just because they fit the mold of a certain spot in the order.
But if you really want to do that, consider this:
Out of the four guys Inglett can replace (Lind, Snider, Rolen and Hill), if all 5 players hit to their full potential, which hitter is Inglett likely to be closest to? The answer is Aaron. So again, if you want him in the lineup, then you should put him at second.
Who do you suggest leads off then?
I would suggest you experiment by making your batting order based on descending OPS, but I don't expect Cito to do that.
If OBP is the most important thing in your lead-off guy, you should try Lyle Overbay. As crappy of a season as he had, he did lead the team in it last year. Not that I think he should lead off, but he's not as horrible of an option as it sounds.
I would suggest Hill, though Scutaro actually draws a lot of walks (seriously, his OPB is more than .100 higher than his avg. I was shocked seeing this.), and since he's got to go somewhere, you could throw him there if you're worried Hill mentally can't cut it leading off.