Romero pitches back into contention

[LittleOzzy]

Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston plans on sitting down with his staff on Monday evening to discuss the direction the club should take with its starting rotation. Ricky Romero's name is one that will undoubtedly occupy a large part of the conversation.

Romero has pulled himself back into the competition for one of Toronto's two starting vacancies, and he made a strong case for being considered for a job on Monday afternoon against the Reds. The left-handed prospect turned in five solid innings, showing off improved mechanics after weeks of working diligently with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg.

Should Toronto opt to go with both of its left-handed prospects -- Romero and Mills -- over Richmond, the rotation would include three lefties. In that scenario, Gaston said the Blue Jays might consider breaking the southpaws up by sliding Litsch into the No. 3 hole.

"We might," Gaston said. "But if that happens, we'd be sure to let Jesse know that he's not the third guy."

Three lefties would be an interesting idea I guess but I don't like sliding Jesse down the rotation.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/ar ... p&c_id=tor

[s e n s i]

Not taking anything away from Jesse, but man it sucks knowing he's our 2. Ugh...

[Mustard_Tiger]

Not taking anything away from Jesse, but man it sucks knowing he's our 2. Ugh...

Yeah...that guy with a better career ERA than Burnett, Marcum, and McGowan. He sucks.

[Yuri Vaultin]

I'm stoked about Romero. The last time I posted on this forum was asking about his development, now I see this. I hope he lives up to his potential because the Jays are going to need their bullpen firing on all cylinders in order to be more than a passing afterthought within the AL East.

[Schad]

Not taking anything away from Jesse, but man it sucks knowing he's our 2. Ugh...

Yeah...that guy with a better career ERA than Burnett, Marcum, and McGowan. He sucks.

Yeah...that guy with the career 1.29 WHIP and 4.7 K/9. Litsch made strides last year, but he's still at best a 4th starter on a decent-to-good team.

[Modern_epic]

While it sounds like Romero has been alright this spring, there is a school of thought, which I wouldn't disregard, that says he might make it because they never expect him to reach his potential.

If they start the season with Richmond and Romero, then the service clocks of Cecil and Mills wouldn't start this year. A few months down the line, if/when Richmond and Romero struggle, they can call up one or both of those two youngsters, and the Jays will have one more year before the two guys they are high on will be FAs.

If it's true, it is a smart move.

P.S. Thank you schad. I didn't feel like looking up better stats, but it hurt me inside to see ERA used. I did see a composite number somewhere that said Litsch could be a number three on an average staff, but the number also had him as the worst pitcher on our staff last year of the main 5.

[s e n s i]

Not taking anything away from Jesse, but man it sucks knowing he's our 2. Ugh...

Yeah...that guy with a better career ERA than Burnett, Marcum, and McGowan. He sucks.

Yeah, no. -Schad., it's unbelievable. I said it sucks knowing he's our 2. Are you content that he is? Would you sincerely put Jesse Litsch ahead of either of Burnett, McGowan, or Marcum in a rotation? Jesus Christ, read what's written before you post.

[Mustard_Tiger]

Not taking anything away from Jesse, but man it sucks knowing he's our 2. Ugh...

Yeah...that guy with a better career ERA than Burnett, Marcum, and McGowan. He sucks.

Yeah...that guy with the career 1.29 WHIP and 4.7 K/9. Litsch made strides last year, but he's still at best a 4th starter on a decent-to-good team.

#4 at best, eh?

I'm sure you read Hardball Times from time to time, Schadenfreude: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... 4-starter/

If Jesse Litsch is a sub 4 ERA pitcher, and there's no reason to think he won't be in his career, than he's certainly far better than a "#4 starter on a decent-to-good team." Labels are stupid anyway, though, the Jays are lucky to have someone like him around.

[Mustard_Tiger]

Not taking anything away from Jesse, but man it sucks knowing he's our 2. Ugh...

Yeah...that guy with a better career ERA than Burnett, Marcum, and McGowan. He sucks.

You're such a f*cking tool, it's unbelievable.

Not sure this is allowed on this forum, but it would be way cooler if it was.

I said it sucks knowing he's our 2. Are you content that he is?

I have no problem with a sub 4 ERA pitcher being the 2nd best pitcher on the team, no.

Would you sincerely put Jesse Litsch ahead of either of Burnett, McGowan, or Marcum in a rotation?

No, I wouldn't put him in front of Burnett due to AJ's experience and ego, but certainly in front of Marcum (who he's been better than in his career) and McGowan (a pitcher with a history of control problems). Litsch also goes deeper in games (IP/GS) than both of those two.

But as I said earlier, labels are stupid. Be happy you have a cheap, effective young pitcher for a long time, and stop whining about the supposed weak nature of the rotation when it isn't really that weak at all.

[Holmes]

As much as I would like Romero to show us something you just can't be confident when he's walked 11 guys in 11 spring training innings, holds a 4.5 BB/9 in all his work above single A and has a minor league WHIP of 1.47.

So he somehow shows "improved mechanics" in a span of a few weeks, throws 5 respectable innings after 6 absolutely brutal ones and then all of a sudden he's made a "strong case" for the starting rotation?

[Mustard_Tiger]

As much as I would like Romero to show us something you just can't be confident when he's walked 11 guys in 11 spring training innings, holds a 4.5 BB/9 in all his work above single A and has a minor league WHIP of 1.47.

So he somehow shows "improved mechanics" in a span of a few weeks, throws 5 respectable innings after 6 absolutely brutal ones and then all of a sudden he's made a "strong case" for the starting rotation?

I don't think he deserves to be in the rotation, either. I'd much rather go with Mills and Richmond (who has no problem with control).

Of course, we'd all rather have Brett Cecil, but the Jays have decided to save some money (as usual, their goal is not winning) and bring him up in mid-May.

[Schad]

#4 at best, eh?

I'm sure you read Hardball Times from time to time, Schadenfreude: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... 4-starter/

If Jesse Litsch is a sub 4 ERA pitcher, and there's no reason to think he won't be in his career, than he's certainly far better than a "#4 starter on a decent-to-good team." Labels are stupid anyway, though, the Jays are lucky to have someone like him around.

I have no problem with a sub 4 ERA pitcher being the 2nd best pitcher on the team, no.

There is every reason to believe that he won't remain a sub-4 pitcher for his entire career. Other than extreme ground-ball types, pitchers that don't strike out a lot of batters tend to have rather inconsistent results. His control is probably good enough to place him a notch above guys like Jason Marquis or Jon Garland, but I'd expect the same sort of year-to-year variability in his numbers...his opponent's batting average on balls in play last year was something like 30 points below what you'd expect given his ground/fly/line percentages. A portion of that can be ascribed to the fact that we have a very good defense, but a portion also owes to the fact that Litsch has gotten extremely **** lucky to date. I'd love it if he kept it up, but I'm expecting him to regress this year.

No, I wouldn't put him in front of Burnett due to AJ's experience and ego, but certainly in front of Marcum (who he's been better than in his career) and McGowan (a pitcher with a history of control problems). Litsch also goes deeper in games (IP/GS) than both of those two.

If Marcum ever regains his form post-injury, I'd take him over Litsch without a moment's hesitation. As for McGowan's control problems, his 3.17 BB/9 over his two full seasons in the bigs is a touch below the major league average over that span. With the same caveat as Marcum, I'd trade the extra 0.8 BB/9 for the improvement of 0.24 HR/9 and 2.7 K/9 between '07 and '08.

[Mustard_Tiger]

There is every reason to believe that he won't remain a sub-4 pitcher for his entire career.

So instead of attacking my original premise (which was proved correct, a #2 pitcher in this league is a 4 ERA pitcher, if not a little bit worse than that), you are attacking Litsch as a pitcher now? Haha.

Other than extreme ground-ball types, pitchers that don't strike out a lot of batters tend to have rather inconsistent results.

You're talking out of your ass. They may not have to be potential to be as effective as somebody like Burnett or McGowan due to their lack of stuff, but they can certainly still pitch consistently.

His control is probably good enough to place him a notch above guys like Jason Marquis or Jon Garland, but I'd expect the same sort of year-to-year variability in his numbers...his opponent's batting average on balls in play last year was something like 30 points below what you'd expect given his ground/fly/line percentages.

His BABIP was actually higher in 2008 than it was in 2007. There comes a point when it isn't luck anymore. Some pitchers are just good at keeping that number low (especially when they have a quality defense to support them). But I'm sure I didn't need to tell you that.

A portion of that can be ascribed to the fact that we have a very good defense, but a portion also owes to the fact that Litsch has gotten extremely **** lucky to date. I'd love it if he kept it up, but I'm expecting him to regress this year.

Why? He's 24 years old, and had a fantastic 2nd half after he came back with his four seamer (sub 2 ERA, 1 WHIP in the last 2 months I believe).

And the projection systems of Bill James, Marcel, CHONE, and ZiPS aren't projecting any kind of a major drop in production for Litsch, either.

Your expectation of a major regression is completely baseless.

If Marcum ever regains his form post-injury, I'd take him over Litsch without a moment's hesitation.

Not me, Marcum is vastly overrated by the majority of Jays fans. If you want to talk about a Jays pitcher getting lucky last year, he was the guy. I'm sure you are aware of FIP.

As for McGowan's control problems, his 3.17 BB/9 over his two full seasons in the bigs is a touch below the major league average over that span.

Convenient that you'd take out the two early years where he struggled massively with his control. The last thing that comes back to a pitcher coming off serious injury is generally their command, and I expect it to take quite some time before Dustin is even back to his 07/08 level of effectiveness. The injury came at a terrible time for him in his career, unfortunately.

With the same caveat as Marcum, I'd trade the extra 0.8 BB/9 for the improvement of 0.24 HR/9 and 2.7 K/9 between '07 and '08.

I'll take the guy that goes deeper in games (Litsch) with similar, if not better effectiveness.

[Schad]

[
So instead of attacking my original premise (which was proved correct, a #2 pitcher in this league is a 4 ERA pitcher, if not a little bit worse than that), you are attacking Litsch as a pitcher now? Haha.

That was the point all along. I'm not disputing that his results have been good thus far. I'm pointing out that his peripherals make it unlikely that he will continue to reproduce those results going forward.

You're talking out of your ass. They may not have to be potential to be as effective as somebody like Burnett or McGowan due to their lack of stuff, but they can certainly still pitch consistently.

His BABIP was actually higher in 2008 than it was in 2007. There comes a point when it isn't luck anymore. Some pitchers are just good at keeping that number low (especially when they have a quality defense to support them). But I'm sure I didn't need to tell you that.

Some pitchers are good at keeping those numbers low. As mentioned, those tend to be extreme ground-ball pitchers, like Halladay (in the 95th percentile) and Chien-Ming Wang (99th percentile). Litsch is pretty damn good at keeping the ball on the ground, but he's not that good. Baseball Prospectus put his EqERA (which adjusts both for defense and park values) at 4.52 last year, and 4.71 the year before. Those numbers indicate exactly what I said...he's an average or slightly below-average pitcher getting good defensive support, and also getting more than a bit lucky...his fielding-independent ERA was 4.35 in 2008, which is one of the biggest splits in the league, but still doesn't account for the full gap between ERA and EqERA. The remainder would be the luck.

Why? He's 24 years old, and had a fantastic 2nd half after he came back with his four seamer (sub 2 ERA, 1 WHIP in the last 2 months I believe).

And the projection systems of Bill James, Marcel, CHONE, and ZiPS aren't projecting any kind of a major drop in production for Litsch, either.

Your expectation of a major regression is completely baseless.

Marcel has his ERA regressing by about 30 points, ZiPS has him regressing by 50 points, CHONE has him regressing by over 70 points. Those look like fairly significant jumps, don't they?

Not me, Marcum is vastly overrated by the majority of Jays fans. If you want to talk about a Jays pitcher getting lucky last year, he was the guy. I'm sure you are aware of FIP.

Marcum's fly-ball tendencies definitely scare me, which is why I took quite a while to warm to him last year. The reason I considered him a much better bet pre-injury is that he has the repertoire of pitches (velocity is another matter) to continue improving such that any statistical regression would be partially offset by his progression as a pitcher. Litsch really doesn't have that advantage...he's a junkballer with very good control, which is why the organization didn't worry about dumping him into the rotation at age 22; unlike the other kids, they didn't see a tonne of room for improvement that might be stifled by the early call-up.

Convenient that you'd take out the two early years where he struggled massively with his control. The last thing that comes back to a pitcher coming off serious injury is generally their command, and I expect it to take quite some time before Dustin is even back to his 07/08 level of effectiveness. The injury came at a terrible time for him in his career, unfortunately.

I took them out because he was a young kid still making his way back from TJ surgery. Had you included Halladay's pre-rebuild numbers from 1999 and 2000 in your expectations after his bounce-back year, I'm guessing your predictions for his first All-Star campaign might have been a touch off.

I agree wholeheartedly about the injury, though. I don't think he will regain his velocity or retain his command, which is why I included the caveat.

I'll take the guy that goes deeper in games (Litsch) with similar, if not better effectiveness.

This is really the big question with Litsch. The biggest complaint about him through 2007 and the first half of 2008 was the fact that he threw too many pitches to get past the fifth or sixth inning in most starts. Through July, he was averaging 15.4 pitches/inning; the year previous it was 16/inning. After he returned in August, he threw even more pitches per inning, but in his infinite wisdom Cito rode him like a rented mule...and with good results.

Now, those pitch/inning numbers are manageable; many pitchers succeed throwing as many or more pitches, though again they tend to be more erratic. The worry with a guy like Litsch, though, is that this is fresh territory for him. He didn't go particularly deep in the minors, despite pitching to roughly a half-batter fewer each inning. He didn't go particularly deep as a rookie, either. Can he transition to throwing 110 or more pitches on a fairly consistent basis without seeing his WHIP regress significantly, which is what Cito will demand of him? Because if he starts giving up the hits you'd expect and walks a few more batters, you could end up with a feedback loop...too many 100 pitch five-inning outings aren't exactly good for a pitcher's arm and effectiveness going forward.

[Mustard_Tiger]

Nice, you know it's baseball season when I'm finally back in a baseball argument. What baseball/Blue Jays blogs/forums do you frequent? BattersBox would seem to be your style, but in my experience, that place takes itself a bit too seriously for its own good.

That was the point all along. I'm not disputing that his results have been good thus far. I'm pointing out that his peripherals make it unlikely that he will continue to reproduce those results going forward.

Hold on...if you are saying Litsch is a 4.00-4.50 ERA pitcher, then he is actually better than a "4th starter" according to the Hardball Times analysis I posted, even if he doesn't maintain last year's numbers.

Some pitchers are good at keeping those numbers low. As mentioned, those tend to be extreme ground-ball pitchers, like Halladay (in the 95th percentile) and Chien-Ming Wang (99th percentile). Litsch is pretty damn good at keeping the ball on the ground, but he's not that good.

When nearly 50% of your batted balls are ground balls, you can expect a pitcher will have a lower than average BABIP. You know that.

Baseball Prospectus put his EqERA (which adjusts both for defense and park values) at 4.52 last year, and 4.71 the year before. Those numbers indicate exactly what I said...he's an average or slightly below-average pitcher getting good defensive support, and also getting more than a bit lucky

I'm not sure you understand what an average starting pitcher is in major league baseball. Because Jesse Litsch is most certainly not below average, even if he were to regress an entire run in ERA.

Marcel has his ERA regressing by about 30 points, ZiPS has him regressing by 50 points, CHONE has him regressing by over 70 points. Those look like fairly significant jumps, don't they?

All of them expect him to maintain his ERA around 4.00, making him an above-average pitcher, and a "#2 guy" according to that previous analysis. And this isn't even really taking into account what a different pitcher he was after he came back from the minors with a four seamer last year. He was throwing harder, striking out more batters, dropping his HR/9, and even walking a few more (which is unlike the Litsch we've come to know). If he continues to pitch like he did in August and September, he may improve himself enough to maintain a mid 3 ERA, who knows...

Marcum's fly-ball tendencies definitely scare me, which is why I took quite a while to warm to him last year. The reason I considered him a much better bet pre-injury is that he has the repertoire of pitches (velocity is another matter) to continue improving such that any statistical regression would be partially offset by his progression as a pitcher.

I still haven't completely warmed to him, at least no to the extent that most Jays fans did. He's an above average pitcher, and it would be great to have him this season, but he isn't better than Litsch or McGowan.

Litsch really doesn't have that advantage...he's a junkballer with very good control, which is why the organization didn't worry about dumping him into the rotation at age 22; unlike the other kids, they didn't see a tonne of room for improvement that might be stifled by the early call-up.

But as he showed last season late in the year, there is room for improvement there. And he's still only 24.

This is really the big question with Litsch. The biggest complaint about him through 2007 and the first half of 2008 was the fact that he threw too many pitches to get past the fifth or sixth inning in most starts. Through July, he was averaging 15.4 pitches/inning; the year previous it was 16/inning. After he returned in August, he threw even more pitches per inning, but in his infinite wisdom Cito rode him like a rented mule...and with good results.

Never doubt Cito. It's a rule. He knows all.

The last time I doubted him was when he kept Mench in to hit against Huston Street with runners on in the bottom of the 9th inning in some August game. And it worked out with a walkoff hit in the game. Never again will I doubt him.

Now, those pitch/inning numbers are manageable; many pitchers succeed throwing as many or more pitches, though again they tend to be more erratic. The worry with a guy like Litsch, though, is that this is fresh territory for him. He didn't go particularly deep in the minors, despite pitching to roughly a half-batter fewer each inning. He didn't go particularly deep as a rookie, either. Can he transition to throwing 110 or more pitches on a fairly consistent basis without seeing his WHIP regress significantly, which is what Cito will demand of him? Because if he starts giving up the hits you'd expect and walks a few more batters, you could end up with a feedback loop...too many 100 pitch five-inning outings aren't exactly good for a pitcher's arm and effectiveness going forward.

I think he'll be fine. Just because he'll be throwing more innings, it doesn't mean his WHIP will go up. The kid is mentally tough, reminds me of a young Doc (without the great stuff of course).

[Schad]

Nice, you know it's baseball season when I'm finally back in a baseball argument. What baseball/Blue Jays blogs/forums do you frequent? BattersBox would seem to be your style, but in my experience, that place takes itself a bit too seriously for its own good.

The only forum I'm registered on is, in fact, Battersbox, though I've probably made all of three posts there.

For info, THT, BP, Think Factory from time to time, Fan Graphs for stats, baseball.bornbybits for pitcher data when I could actually access their old player cards (their graphing is a large part of why I warmed to Marcum and haven't to Litsch, coincidentally), and thanks to Modern_epic bringing it to my attention through the General Board, Bart Given's blog Inside the Majors, which has some really fascinating insider stuff with a Jays' slant (good examples here and here). Other than perhaps the last one, basically the same stuff everyone else reads.

Hold on...if you are saying Litsch is a 4.00-4.50 ERA pitcher, then he is actually better than a "4th starter" according to the Hardball Times analysis I posted, even if he doesn't maintain last year's numbers.

That's the thing, though: I think it's quite possible that he regresses more.

When nearly 50% of your batted balls are ground balls, you can expect a pitcher will have a lower than average BABIP. You know that.

Absolutely. Last year, though, his BABIP was better than Halladay's or Chien-Ming Wang's, basically the gold standards for ground ball specialists in the AL. That's why I mentioned them.

I'm not sure you understand what an average starting pitcher is in major league baseball. Because Jesse Litsch is most certainly not below average, even if he were to regress an entire run in ERA.

The only beef I have with the THT article you posted is the fact that it's not really looking only at the production you get from your 4th/5th starters, but from the production you get from call-ups replacing your 4th/5th starters, either because they have been injured or have been bumped up in the rotation due to other injuries. In an ideal world where you didn't have to throw Toma Ohka-level dregs out there to pick up 10-20 starts annually, the values for the actual 4th starter would be well below what Sackmann details in that article. If Litsch checks in at 4.30-4.70 (which is what I'd expect) he's average overall and a notch above average as a starter. Exactly the type of guy a good team would like to have as their 4th starter.

As an aside, ERA league-wide has dropped 20 points in the two years since he wrote that (ridiculous, but true), which probably needs to be taken into consideration.

All of them expect him to maintain his ERA around 4.00, making him an above-average pitcher, and a "#2 guy" according to that previous analysis. And this isn't even really taking into account what a different pitcher he was after he came back from the minors with a four seamer last year. He was throwing harder, striking out more batters, dropping his HR/9, and even walking a few more (which is unlike the Litsch we've come to know). If he continues to pitch like he did in August and September, he may improve himself enough to maintain a mid 3 ERA, who knows...

I definitely hope so. But the net result of last year's improvements is that he still outperformed his numbers by a fair margin. You look at his Aug./Sept. numbers and see a trend that indicates improvement...I look at them and wonder if it's an aberration that they differ so wildly from his first 39 starts in the bigs.

Never doubt Cito. It's a rule. He knows all.

The last time I doubted him was when he kept Mench in to hit against Huston Street with runners on in the bottom of the 9th inning in some August game. And it worked out with a walkoff hit in the game. Never again will I doubt him.

I love Cito to death, with two exceptions: his insistence on a 'traditional' top of the order (two slap-hitting guys, then the muscle) even if it means having weaker hitters receive more ABs, and his damn-the-torpedos approach to the rotation. He'd be the perfect guy for a top team focused on this season and this season only. I'm less sold on him managing a 4th place team whose staff is already injury-ravaged.

I think he'll be fine. Just because he'll be throwing more innings, it doesn't mean his WHIP will go up. The kid is mentally tough, reminds me of a young Doc (without the great stuff of course).

Could well be. Litsch did look like an entirely different pitcher when he returned, much more willing to throw early strikes (especially with runners on), but also more confident in his ability to get guys out on his terms late in the count. It's possible that the Josh Towers Experience holds too much sway over my psyche...I guess this season will tell.

[J-Roc]

Who knew Litsch was so important, he needs to be told he's not really the 3rd starter. Dude should be the 5th starter if things were right.

[Michael Bradley]

Romero might have made the rotation based on his start today against the Astros.

7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, (11:4 GB to FB)

[Modern_epic]

And he did it against something close to their likely opening day lineup, too. It seems the question is probably Mills or Richmond now.

[Mustard_Tiger]

Forgot about this forum, my bad.

The only forum I'm registered on is, in fact, Battersbox, though I've probably made all of three posts there.

I figured as much. They have some good posters there, certainly.

For info, THT, BP, Think Factory from time to time, Fan Graphs for stats, baseball.bornbybits for pitcher data when I could actually access their old player cards

THT and Think Factory, eh? So you're probably aware of John Brattain's untimely death. That really sucked, I loved his writing.

bringing it to my attention through the General Board, Bart Given's blog Inside the Majors, which has some really fascinating insider stuff with a Jays' slant (good examples here and here). Other than perhaps the last one, basically the same stuff everyone else reads.

They've posted that on DJF (Drunk Jays Fans), and it seemed very interesting.

That's the thing, though: I think it's quite possible that he regresses more.

Why? Not even the most conservative projection systems are predicting that kind of regression.

The only beef I have with the THT article you posted is the fact that it's not really looking only at the production you get from your 4th/5th starters, but from the production you get from call-ups replacing your 4th/5th starters, either because they have been injured or have been bumped up in the rotation due to other injuries. In an ideal world where you didn't have to throw Toma Ohka-level dregs out there to pick up 10-20 starts annually, the values for the actual 4th starter would be well below what Sackmann details in that article.

But there is no ideal world, so that's not a legit beef. Most of the pitchers that teams throw out in their 4 and 5 spots in this league aren't very good. Making somebody like Litsch incredibly valuable.

If Litsch checks in at 4.30-4.70 (which is what I'd expect) he's average overall and a notch above average as a starter. Exactly the type of guy a good team would like to have as their 4th starter.

I think he'll do better than that, but okay.

I definitely hope so. But the net result of last year's improvements is that he still outperformed his numbers by a fair margin. You look at his Aug./Sept. numbers and see a trend that indicates improvement...I look at them and wonder if it's an aberration that they differ so wildly from his first 39 starts in the bigs.

Well if you believe Arnsberg, they went down there to change his approach, and it seems they definitely did.

I love Cito to death, with two exceptions: his insistence on a 'traditional' top of the order (two slap-hitting guys, then the muscle) even if it means having weaker hitters receive more ABs, and his damn-the-torpedos approach to the rotation. He'd be the perfect guy for a top team focused on this season and this season only. I'm less sold on him managing a 4th place team whose staff is already injury-ravaged.

Yeah...but he's Cito!!

Could well be. Litsch did look like an entirely different pitcher when he returned, much more willing to throw early strikes (especially with runners on), but also more confident in his ability to get guys out on his terms late in the count. It's possible that the Josh Towers Experience holds too much sway over my psyche...I guess this season will tell.

Come on...Litsch is better than Towers. If you want a comparable pitcher to JT, look at Scott Richmond (high K/BB, high H/9).