Jays ponder the pros and cons of pushing Halladay to the max

[LittleOzzy]

In a year when at least three-fifths of the Blue Jays starting rotation is something less than a sure thing, it is natural enough to look at Roy Halladay and wonder 'What if?'

What if they could squeeze in an extra start here or there to maximize the effect of having one of the premier pitchers in the game to anchor the staff?

Would it make a difference?

Given the schedule and the makeup of the pitching staff right now, Halladay is destined to make 19 starts before the all-star break.

Twice during the coming months -- once in May, once in June -- Halladay will get an extra day off between starts.

And right now, he's on a schedule that will have him pitch his final game before the All-Star break on July 8 and not again until the first game after the break on July 17.

"Now you know we'll probably make an adjustment on that," said manager Cito Gaston, speaking about the potential long hiatus between starts at the all-star break.

If they were to ask Halladay to pitch twice on three days' rest over the course of the first three months, it would be possible to squeeze two extra starts out of that extraordinary arm prior to the all-star break.

But is the risk worth the reward?

"It will always be our priority to make sure he pitches on time," said Gaston. "Unless he needs the rest, he will be out there whenever we can get him out there safely."

http://www.torontosun.com/sports/column ... 6-sun.html

[Alfred]

At worst it should probably raise his trade value. As long as he maintains his usual excellent win/loss ratio, he's going to be putting some pretty sexy stats up in the W/L column.

[SharoneWright]

I have absolutely no problem with this.

He is durable and is our leader. Improves our chances and sends the right message to others.

[rtcaino]

I'm cool with Halladay pitching two 75 pitch complete games in 3 days.

We gotta get this guy into the playoffs!! It's like buying a sports car, living in germany, and never taking it on the autobahn - let's go JP.

[Schad]

This is demented, unless Cito reins in his pitch counts. Halladay threw 246 innings (23 IP more than the second-place guy in the AL), his third consecutive season of 220+, and the Jays want him to throw more in the hopes of maintaining the delusion of being competitive through August. We're talking about our best player and best trading chip...teams aren't going to give up more because he throws 260 rather than 246.

[TR50]

^Agreed with above, that could def. overwork him and he does have some history of injuries, i think its recipe for disaster.

[Alfred]

He's pretty durable, and I do think that having gaudier stats in the W-L column increases his trade value.

[Schad]

He's pretty durable, and I do think that having gaudier stats in the W-L column increases his trade value.

'Pretty durable' is throwing 220+ innings. 'Incredibly durable' is throwing 240+ innings. 'Unlikely to be useful past age 35' is throwing above 260.


And does anyone really think that two or three starts will make that much of a difference? Our best-case scenario is probably finishing 6-8 games out of the Wild Card, and that's only if we match last year's win total.

[Alfred]

He's pretty durable, and I do think that having gaudier stats in the W-L column increases his trade value.

'Pretty durable' is throwing 220+ innings. 'Incredibly durable' is throwing 240+ innings. 'Unlikely to be useful past age 35' is throwing above 260.


And does anyone really think that two or three starts will make that much of a difference? Our best-case scenario is probably finishing 6-8 games out of the Wild Card, and that's only if we match last year's win total.

If the idea is that we are going to be trading him at some point in the near future, him sucking past age 35 isn't going to be a huge problem. And do 2-3 starts make a difference? Well, if he can maintain his sparkling W-L ratio, his W-L record is going to look awesome. I definitely think that sort of thing matters when other teams scout talent. If he's able to pitch those extra games, I think that also increases his trade value. It's going to make him look like an absolute stud.

[Schad]

If the idea is that we are going to be trading him at some point in the near future, him sucking past age 35 isn't going to be a huge problem. And do 2-3 starts make a difference? Well, if he can maintain his sparkling W-L ratio, his W-L record is going to look awesome. I definitely think that sort of thing matters when other teams scout talent. If he's able to pitch those extra games, I think that also increases his trade value. It's going to make him look like an absolute stud.

I disagree. Roy's a known quantity...he has won 20 games twice, finished in the top-5 in Cy Young voting four times, and is widely considered the best starter in the American League. Any team that would actually offer more based upon his win-loss record is a team that's probably going to get fleeced in any negotiation, anyway.

And him sucking past age 35 is a huge problem if, say, this team does better than expected through the trade deadline, and JP reasons that internal improvement and the return of McGowan/Marcum places us in good stead to compete from 2010-2013. Burning out Halladay would complete the unholy trifecta of ruining one of our best players, damaging our salary structure (if he re-signs after next year, it'll likely be through age 37 or 38), and possibly costing him a shot at the Hall of Fame.

Giving him gaudier counting stats really isn't worth at that, especially as they'll be plenty gaudy as is.

[Modern_epic]

Any team that would actually offer more based upon his win-loss record is a team that's probably going to get fleeced in any negotiation, anyway.

To go further, I would say that this is true of any pitcher, not just Roy. Wins and losses are pretty much the least useful pitching stat regularly cited, and I think most teams know that at this point. Even if most journalists and fans don't.

[TR50]

plus its Roy Halladay....people know who he is...and he'll always cost a pretty penny

[G-Mac]

I gotta say, though Halladay may pitch one heck of a lot of innings, i'm more concerned about his pitch counts than anything else. If you look at those, he throws the same amount of pitches in 7-8 innings as a lot of guys throw in 6. Lets say he averages say 1.5 more innings than the average MLB starter when throwing the same number of pitches. 1.5x35=52.5. If he throws 260 inings or 240 innings in a year and we subtract the extra 52.5 he gets from being so efficient, that puts him between 190ish and 210ish innings...where the average good starter is.

I'm not worried about his innings.