the lineup

[Raider917]

this topic really neds a thread. after every loss its the thing that aggravates me the most. i cant believe that gaston can be this ignorant about it. moving wells and rios seems too obvious to me. its getting as bad as tosca with the bullpen now.

[s e n s i]

Cito is embarrassing himself now, tbh. Granted, we've won 4 of 6, I just don't see how keeping Rios and Wells at 3 & 4 will eventually be more rewarding than harmful. I mean, how much, or better yet, how little, will a change affect the team in a negative way?

Come on Cito.

Scutaro
Overbay
Hill
Lind
Rios
Rolen
Wells
Millar
Barajas

[Mustard_Tiger]

He's not going to change the lineup, so I don't see the point in getting so bothered by it. Wells will start hitting eventually, anyway, and it will be fine (except for the part about our best hitter against righties batting 7).

[Modern_epic]

This really shouldn't be as big of a concern as fans make it out to be.

Analysis has shown that the difference between the best possible lineup you can make and the worst you can is some ridiculously small number of games. I can't remember the exact number, but I believe it was in the area of 5 wins. And while that seems like a lot, I can think of far more worse lineups than I can think of better ones.

So even if we were to assume it makes a two win difference (which would mean that 40% of possible lineups are more efficient with the 5 win assumption), that would seem to be kind of a big deal. Except if Cito's patience and confidence in just Wells pays off this season, an improvement from him back to his career numbers is going to be worth more than that. Roughly done, if we assume he will get 85 RBIs rather than the 72 he is on pace for, that is about three games.

[s e n s i]

True enough. Key word "if" Cito's confidence in Wells pays off. And if it doesn't, we'll be short a few games of a playoff birth.

But I guess the same can be said if say Lind gets a crack at the clean-up spot. If he's for real, it might not be out of the realm of possibility that he produces even more runs than he is right now, especially if Scutaro and Hill are batting directly in front of him.

I also don't think this is that big a deal, but when Rolen, Overbay, Millar, Barajas are the bottom half of your order, it's never a sure bet that either of them will score from 2nd on a single, or from 1st on a double. Very, very slow. Inserting a Rios or Wells somewhere in the bottom half puts at least an average-speed baserunner on for one of those guys to cash in with any sort of hit.

Right now there is no real 'threat' at the most important spots in the order. It's certainly fair game for concern.

[Modern_epic]

Well first off, I consider even the two games number to be high. I would guess one, personally. And Wells generally hits better in the summer months than the others, so I don't consider it to be much of a gamble.

If you are talking about Rios and Wells, you are actually talking about the lack of a threat in the 4/5th and 1st/2nd most important spots in the order, not 1st and 2nd. That, however, is a discussion for another time.

I agree with the idea that we don't have a threat at the 4 spot. I just don't consider Lind to be a threat either. And he may produce a small number more runs in the position, but he simply doesn't have as much room to improve on that as Wells does. Now if we could slot Adam Dunn in there, I would be a happy, happy man. And not just for the hilarity of it.

As for your point about a lack of speed in the bottom of the order, the number of times the speed difference comes into play probably isn't as valuable as the increased at bats and higher leverage of situations with where those two are batting now. Plus, when these situations come up late in games, you come to the one place Cito likes making in game moves: subbing the Prime Minister of Defence into the game as a pinch runner. That alone probably eliminates 25% of the time this is a potentially outcome affecting concern.

I'm not saying the lineup is perfect; just that a) it isn't terribly important and b) messing with it goes against Cito's whole philosophy. And that philosophy has proven pretty effective so far in his tenure.

[s e n s i]

Solid points, all around.

I guess that while changing anything will not guarantee any sort of offensive resurgence, keeping things defaulted will not guarantee success either, or continued struggles for that matter. However, if the lack of production from the 3/4 continues with barely an end in sight, consequently triggering another lengthy losing streak, there is no doubt something should be done.

95 AB's between Rios-Wells
7 Extra-base hits
3 RBI's

UGLY.

[Michael Bradley]

I think Wells is injured. The last time he was this bad was 2007 when his shoulder was messed up. Everyone was expecting him to turn it on that year but it never materialized, then we found out he was playing hurt. If he is in fact injured, then I hope he is put on the DL and Snider/Dellucci or whoever is called up. Simply move Rios to CF, Snider/Dellucci to RF, and then move everyone from Lind onwards up a spot in the lineup (so Scutaro, Hill, Rios, Lind, Rolen, Overbay, Millar, Snider/Dellucci, Barajas becomes the temporary lineup).

Having a .700 OPS player in the clean-up spot while better hitters are batting behind him doesn't make much sense. I can understand waiting for him to break out of his slump, but if David Ortiz (i.e. an MVP calibre player in the past) can be bumped down in Boston's order, I don't see why a guy with only two all-star seasons under his belt in 7 years can't be moved down either. Cito's patience has to be tested at some point.

[jonvito]

That is true about Wells. He may be injured and just trying to work through it. However if he was injured i'm sure Cito would move him down to limit the at bats. Hopefully he is ok and soon starts smoking the ball to the gaps.

[Avenger]

If you are talking about Rios and Wells, you are actually talking about the lack of a threat in the 4/5th and 1st/2nd most important spots in the order, not 1st and 2nd. That, however, is a discussion for another time.

I agree with the idea that we don't have a threat at the 4 spot. I just don't consider Lind to be a threat either. And he may produce a small number more runs in the position, but he simply doesn't have as much room to improve on that as Wells does. Now if we could slot Adam Dunn in there, I would be a happy, happy man. And not just for the hilarity of it.

Lindy is hitting .316/.381/.562(.941 OPS) with 12 HR's and 45 driven in
Dunn is hitting .256/.395/.536 (.931 OPS)with 17 HR's and 44 driven in

Lind is having as good of a year as Dunn and his power can only get better at 25 years old

[jsmith]

one funny way to look at it is to compare strictly batting averages and see what the different between someone hitting around 300 (lind) and someone hitting 250 (vernon)

Lind hits the ball 50 more times per thousand hits which translates to 5% of the time or roughly 1 more in every every 20 at bats. This is equal to about 1 more hit every 4-5 games.

It might not make as much of a difference as everyone thinks where they hit in the order. Between Rios and Wells, even if you pretend that someone is going to be in scoring position every time they get up to bat that only produces 2 extra runs per 5 games if they bring their average to 300.

Hope my math is right there.

[youngLion]

Well first of all I have to say that Cito Gaston is not "embarrassing himself." He's an unconventional manager for sure, and as fans we can certainly critique but I refuse to out-and-out insult him. Cito has the hardware to prove that he's no dummy.

As Mustard_Tiger said, Gaston is very reluctant to make changes with the lineup. He's a big believer in the idea that sticking with a guy who's struggling earlier in the season will instill him with confidence which will help him succeed later on. That being said he has hinted at times that he's not so stuck in his ways to the extent of being stubborn. The other day in his daily interview with Jerry Howarth, Jerry asked Cito point blank if he could consider rearranging the 3-4-5 spots if current hitting trends continue, and Cito said that he might start considering these changes in a month or so.

We can't know for sure, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Michael Bradley was right about Wells being injured. In 2007 Wells never let on about his shoulder injury until after the season, and although he was far from great that year he deserves credit for keeping his head down and trying to go out and do the job. But I digress.

If Wells is in fact healthy then I think his numbers will be there at the end of the year, as will Rios'. That being said I just don't think that Wells as the patience to be a four hitter in this league. I'm also not quite ready to buy into the Overbeast as a heart of the order guy. Maybe if he keeps it up for a few more weeks, but not yet. With that in mind, here's how I'd do the lineups:

vs Righties:

Scutaro (SS)
Hill (2B)
Rios (RF)
Lind (DH)
Wells (CF)
Overbay (1B)
Rolen (3B)
Barajas (C)
Bautista (LF)

I've thought for a while that Wells is a true 5. Millar is useless right now (aside from being pretty funny) and shouldn't be starting vs righties. Bautista isn't a great contact hitter, especially vs righties, but he has a bit of pop and I love that he has a great arm in left, which is an underrated consideration imho. That being said I'd replace Bautista with Snider ASAP.

vs Lefties

Scut (SS)
Hill (2B)
Wells (CF)
Rios (RF)
Lind (DH)
Rolen (3B)
Bautista (LF)
Millar (1B)
Barajas (C)

Wells wrecks lefties to the tune of a .315 average and a decidedly un-Wellsian .373 OBP. Again I like Bautista's pop and defense, and he's also a better hitter vs lefties (.262/.357/.464).

So that's how I'd do things. I considered Hill and Overbay (vs righties) for the 3 slot, but I see no reason to change a thing with Hill and he'll get a couple more ABs batting second, and as I said earlier I'm not sold on Overbay yet.

[s e n s i]

Well first of all I have to say that Cito Gaston is not "embarrassing himself." He's an unconventional manager for sure, and as fans we can certainly critique but I refuse to out-and-out insult him. Cito has the hardware to prove that he's no dummy.

As Mustard_Tiger said, Gaston is very reluctant to make changes with the lineup. He's a big believer in the idea that sticking with a guy who's struggling earlier in the season will instill him with confidence which will help him succeed later on. That being said he has hinted at times that he's not so stuck in his ways to the extent of being stubborn. The other day in his daily interview with Jerry Howarth, Jerry asked Cito point blank if he could consider rearranging the 3-4-5 spots if current hitting trends continue, and Cito said that he might start considering these changes in a month or so.

Cute, I knew that line would tickle your fancy.

Anyway, no intent to be offensive, but I think any casual Jays fan already knows Cito's philosophy. If we didn't already notice it by watching the exact same players go to the plate time after time, it's certainly been beaten to death by Jamie Campbell & co., Griffin, Zwolinski, heck even Bastian. So no need to delve in on that.

He's not so stuck in his ways to the extent of being stubborn? Yet if the current hitting trends continue for a month, he might start considering these changes? Might? Not even just straight-up consider. Might. By that time, more than half the season has elapsed, and we've spent more time on waiting it out on the 3-4 spots in our order, that even if they do turn it around, it will only be for a limited number of games and certainly not in the playoffs.

Cito also said that he thought of plugging Joe Inglett at the top of the order for the game that was eventually rained-out, but didn't because Kevin Millar was 'swinging a hot bat'. That's a different story for another day though.

[Modern_epic]

Lindy is hitting .316/.381/.562(.941 OPS) with 12 HR's and 45 driven in
Dunn is hitting .256/.395/.536 (.931 OPS)with 17 HR's and 44 driven in

Lind is having as good of a year as Dunn and his power can only get better at 25 years old

His power long term can indeed only get better. But I have less faith that he keeps it up this year than I do in Dunn.

Cito also said that he thought of plugging Joe Inglett at the top of the order for the game that was eventually rained-out, but didn't because Kevin Millar was 'swinging a hot bat'. That's a different story for another day though.

Well, in comparative terms...

(Fun fact: Joe Inglett's OPS+ is in the negative this year. I didn't know you could do that.)

[s e n s i]

He's a wise man, that Cito.

[youngLion]

Anyway, no intent to be offensive, but I think any casual Jays fan already knows Cito's philosophy. If we didn't already notice it by watching the exact same players go to the plate time after time, it's certainly been beaten to death by Jamie Campbell & co., Griffin, Zwolinski, heck even Bastian. So no need to delve in on that.

Yeah fair enough. I certainly wasn't purporting to be offering any revelatory information or anything, but you're right there's no point in restating this stuff now.

He's not so stuck in his ways to the extent of being stubborn? Yet if the current hitting trends continue for a month, he might start considering these changes? Might? Not even just straight-up consider. Might. By that time, more than half the season has elapsed, and we've spent more time on waiting it out on the 3-4 spots in our order, that even if they do turn it around, it will only be for a limited number of games and certainly not in the playoffs.

Cito also said that he thought of plugging Joe Inglett at the top of the order for the game that was eventually rained-out, but didn't because Kevin Millar was 'swinging a hot bat'. That's a different story for another day though.

Well I suppose stubborn is a subjective term, but at least Gaston has told us that he's considering changes on some level, at some point. By no means whatsover am I saying I agree with Cito entirely on the lineup. The Millar decision particularly is just maddening. Cito seems to think he's swinging the bat well despite not actually getting the hits... Gaston knows hitting mechanics so maybe they're some truth to that, but frankly I don't know what game he's watching if he thinks Millar is helping the team right now.

I'd much rather see Inglett in there, offhand I think the guy bat .299 against righties last year.

[s e n s i]

Well whaddya know? Cito changed the line-up.

http://www.Drunkjaysfans.com

Scutaro
Hill
Wells
Lind
Rolen
Rios
Overbay
Barajas
Inglett

[youngLion]

Well whaddya know? Cito changed the line-up.

http://www.Drunkjaysfans.com

Scutaro
Hill
Wells
Lind
Rolen
Rios
Overbay
Barajas
Inglett

Well this is a surprise. Obviously I didn't expect a change this soon, nor did I expect this specific change. I would have thought that Wells would be the guy getting the bump. It's going to be fascinating to see how Rios reacts to this move.

Also, thank god Inglett is starting over Millar. I think the 'second leadoff man' strat makes sense for this team because they have so many contact hitters.

[youngLion]

Also cs your sig is awesome. I've been rocking Dr. Dre for a few seasons, maybe it's time I got a Blue Jays tag instead.

[Mustard_Tiger]

He finally changes the lineup, but does it by moving Vernon Wells up in the order? The guy that was struggling the most of anybody?

Cito is too funny.